Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Buffalo, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Tonight...the bulk of the region will remain in the warm sector.
This will result in temperatures that will be some 10 degrees above normal...only bottoming out in the low to mid 50s over the western counties and in the 40s east of Lake Ontario. A shower will not be out of the question...although the flavor of the night will just be partly cloudy.

On Friday...it will remain rather warm with temperatures returning to the 70s
Unfortunately
all good things must come to an end. A shortwave moving across the Lower Great Lakes in advance of a wavy cold front will touch off some scattered showers and possibly some thunderstorms for the midday and afternoon. While the bulk of the region will be rain free...the risk for pcpn is probably too high to roll the dice with outdoor activities.

It will be quite unsettled Friday night as a second...stronger shortwave will support the gradual passage of a sfc wave and its associated cold front. Expect fairly widespread showers and possible thunderstorms with QPF in the vcnty of a quarter...to as much as a half inch. The higher end of that range will be favored over the far western counties.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Latest model guidance is quicker to close off low pressure in the mid-levels on Saturday, which results in a slower exit of the system. Uncertainty in when showers will end, with the RGEM particularly slow in moving the low away. Showers will likely last into Saturday morning, and will gradually end from west to east Saturday night and into Sunday. By Sunday, high pressure building in from the west should at least allow for clear and sunny skies in Western NY but some clouds may linger east of Lake Ontario. It will be notably cooler, but even so highs will range from the lower 50s to lower 60s over the weekend, which it not too far from normal. Sunday looks to be the better of the two days, with more sunshine and lighter winds.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Surface high pressure will build across the region Sunday night through Monday night, providing confidence in fair and dry weather.
With the surface high overhead, hedged a few degrees cooler than model guidance for low temperatures Sunday night.

Low pressure tracking well to our north will push a cold front across the region Tuesday night. LLJ of 50 knots will result in wind shear favorable for organized convection. Late afternoon or evening timing will provide for instability to develop before its passage, so do see a risk for some strong to severe thunderstorms during this timeframe.

Warm weather will continue early next week, especially Tuesday when many locations in the lower elevations could top 80F. Cooler Wednesday and Thursday following the cold frontal passage, but even behind the front temperatures will drop to near normal levels.
Otherwise, high pressure building to the north will provide mainly fair and dry weather for Wednesday and Thursday.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR flight conditions are found to start the 00Z TAFs and these conditions will prevail for at least the next 12 to 18 hours. A stalled frontal boundary currently over NYS may produce a sprinkle overnight and through mid morning, but lacking deep moisture showers will likely hold off until the late morning. At this time a shortwave trough from the Ohio Valley will bring deeper moisture and forcing to the TAF region.

Scattered to numerous showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will occur the final 6 hours of this TAF cycle, with ceiling heights lowering to MVFR at times of heavier activity.

Light winds tonight and tomorrow, though north of the frontal boundary winds by late tonight will mainly be northeast for the SLV including KART, while southern TAF sites through the TAF cycle will have much more variability to the wind direction.

Outlook...
Friday night.. MVFR to VFR cigs with numerous showers and possible thunderstorms.
Saturday.. MVFR/IFR early with a chance of showers, improving to VFR later in the day.
Sunday and Monday...VFR.
Tuesday...VFR with afternoon showers possible.

MARINE
High pressure will drift from the Lower Great Lakes to New England today with relatively light winds. The light synoptic scale flow will allow for local lake breezes this afternoon with onshore winds developing.

Low pressure will then move into the central Great Lakes Friday afternoon before moving over or just north of the lower Great Lakes Friday night through early Saturday. East winds will increase Friday on Lake Ontario ahead of this system with choppy conditions developing. Conditions approaching Small Craft Advisory are more likely late Friday night through Saturday night behind the cold front, especially on Lake Ontario.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.