Monday, July6, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Buffalo, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:42AMSunset 8:58PM Monday July 6, 2020 7:03 PM EDT (23:03 UTC) Moonrise 9:29PMMoonset 5:58AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 139 Pm Edt Mon Jul 6 2020
This afternoon..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Sunny.
Tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. Mainly clear.
Tuesday..South winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Sunny.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy.
Wednesday..Southwest winds less than 10 knots. A chance of showers during the day.
Thursday..Light and variable winds becoming south 5 to 10 knots. Becoming mainly clear.
Friday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off buffalo is 74 degrees.
LEZ020 Expires:202007062115;;419335 FZUS51 KBUF 061739 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 139 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ020-062115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Buffalo, NY
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location: 42.85, -79.05     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 061901 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 301 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020

SYNOPSIS. Heat and humidity will build through the rest of the week, peaking on Thursday and Friday. The majority of the time will be dry, although a few widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible each afternoon and evening mainly well inland from the lakes. A weak cold front will arrive Saturday and bring a better chance of a few showers and thunderstorms, and will also bring somewhat cooler temperatures to the region by Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. A northwest flow aloft will remain in place around the periphery of the expansive ridge across the midwest. A subtle mid level shortwave will drift through the northwest flow aloft, crossing the Southern Tier and PA. Associated weak forcing and ample mid level lapse rates will interact with diurnal instability to support a few showers and thunderstorms across the Southern Tier this afternoon. Radar shows showers and storms developing across north-central PA early this afternoon. Latest high-res CAMS guidance continues to suggest this convection will be very slow moving due to the weak flow aloft. These will spread into Cattaraugus and Allegany counties. Elsewhere, it will remain dry and mostly sunny with afternoon temperatures ranging from the mid 80s to lower 90s.

Any convection will end this evening as the weak shortwave moves away and the boundary layer stabilizes towards sunset. A gradual increase in low level moisture combined with radiational cooling will allow river valley fog to develop across the Southern Tier late tonight through early Tuesday morning.

The strong and dominant ridge over the midwest will build a little farther northeast into the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday. Associated mid level subsidence and poor lapse rates will keep convective potential muted. Weak southwest flow will allow stable lake shadows to develop northeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario with dry weather prevailing. A few scattered afternoon storms may develop from the western Southern Tier through the Finger Lakes and Tug Hill region away from the stable lake shadows, but even here the potential looks quite low.

A weak trough will move across the region late Tuesday night. There's a small chance for some showers with this, but the timing of its passage is unfavorable from a convective standpoint. Lingering cloud cover and higher dew points will keep temperatures on the warm side Tuesday night with lows ranging from the mid 60s to lower 70s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. . Extended period of High Heat continues through the work week .

A weak trough will be tracking across northern New York/northern New England while heights build northward across the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday. The region will remain under the influence of a strong ridge where 850mb temperatures average 18 degrees C. Humidity will increase Wednesday as a corridor of higher PWATS persists across the northern Mid-Atlantic and extends northward into western NY. A surface trough will be across or near the region and will be the focus of diurnally driven showers and storms. Greater coverage of showers and storms is expected across western NY where moisture is higher. The focus of storms will likely be across lake breezes and across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes. Some convection is possible across and east of the Tug Hill Plateau. High temperatures will reach the low to mid 90s across the Lake Plains and the upper 80s at higher elevations. Showers and storms will diminish Wednesday night and low temperatures will only fall to the upper 60s to low 70s. The Heat Advisory continues across the Lake Plains through Wednesday and Wednesday night.

It will be another hot and humid day on Thursday. With only isolated showers and storms across interior portions of the forecast area, mostly sunny skies will lead to temperatures in the mid 90s and heat indices 95-100 across the Lake Plains, upper 80s at higher elevations. Overnight lows will only fall to the mid to upper 70s and low 80s along the Lake Plains. The Heat Advisory continues Thursday and Thursday night.

The broad upper level ridge continues to provide high heat and humidity to the eastern Great Lakes on Friday while a sub-tropical disturbance over the southeast U.S. moves north up the east coast. The eastern Great Lakes becomes situated between an approaching trough and coastal system. Showers and storms are possible across western NY as a cold front approaches and cloud cover will be increasing across the region as moisture moves northward. Temperatures will rise into the low to mid 90s and apparent temperatures around 95 across the Lake Plains and upper 80s at higher elevations. The heat advisory continues through Friday.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. A trough will move across the Great Lakes and bring the eastern Great Lakes a minor relief to the heat and humidity with temperatures in the 80s Saturday through Tuesday. A sharpening shortwave trough and secondary cold front may lead to a few more showers and storms on Sunday. A small closed low may remain stationary over the Great Lakes into next work week and will provide a chance for showers both days.

AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Mainly dry weather for the 18Z TAF cycle with the exception of scattered showers and thunderstorms which will develop across the Southern Tier. There's a small chance these will sneak into KJHW, but more likely than not the storms will remain to the east of the terminal. Some river valley fog will likely develop across the Southern Tier with local IFR overnight. This may spread into KJHW, but TAF hedges optimistic since the showers are likely to miss the terminal.

Outlook .

Tuesday afternoon through Friday . Mainly VFR. Widely scattered showers and storms each afternoon mainly inland from the lakes with local/brief flight restrictions. Late night/early morning Southern Tier Valley fog with local IFR.

Saturday . VFR/MVFR. Showers and thunderstorms likely.

MARINE. A period of ENE winds around 15 knots on Lake Ontario this afternoon will bring choppy conditions to the west half of the lake. Winds are expected to remain lighter on Lake Erie.

Relatively light winds will then return to both lakes Tuesday through Friday with negligible wave action.

CLIMATE. There will be an extended period of hot weather which has the potential to break some records. Some daily records will be within reach over the next several days. Also, the longest streak of 90-degree days in Buffalo may be in jeopardy. Buffalo has already hit 90 today, making it 4 days and counting. Here are the current records .

Buffalo

Tuesday - 94 (1988) Wednesday - 96 (1988) Thursday - 92 (1988) Friday - 95 (1988)

Rochester

Tuesday - 97 (1988) Wednesday - 100 (1936) Thursday - 102 (1936) Friday - 102 (1936)

Watertown

Tuesday - 99 (2008) Wednesday - 93 (1955) Thursday - 92 (1955) Friday - 92 (2007)

90+ Degree Days in Buffalo (Ending Date) 1) 7/10/1988 - 7 2) 7/1/1963 - 5 3) 8/14/1947 - 5 4) 7/6/2020 (ongoing) - 4

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Heat Advisory from 1 PM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Friday for NYZ001>006-010-011-013-014. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . Hitchcock NEAR TERM . Apffel/Hitchcock SHORT TERM . HSK LONG TERM . HSK AVIATION . Apffel MARINE . Apffel/Hitchcock CLIMATE . Apffel


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 9 mi46 min NNE 9.9 G 13 87°F 78°F1015.5 hPa44°F
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 11 mi46 min 78°F 1015.3 hPa
45142 - Port Colborne 15 mi64 min W 7.8 G 9.7 78°F 77°F1014.7 hPa (-1.2)
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 16 mi46 min 88°F 1015.7 hPa
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 29 mi64 min WSW 11 G 12 79°F 1015.2 hPa (-1.4)
45139 - West Lake Ontario - Grimsby 38 mi64 min E 12 G 12 77°F 76°F2 ft1014.7 hPa (-1.6)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 38 mi64 min ENE 14 G 16 75°F 1015.6 hPa (-1.7)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport, NY18 mi70 minNE 1110.00 miA Few Clouds91°F62°F38%1014.9 hPa
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY19 mi71 minNE 1010.00 miFair89°F57°F34%1014.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBUF

Wind History from BUF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW6W3E3E3CalmCalmSE5CalmSE4SE4SE4E3E4SE5SE5CalmCalmCalmNE5NE4N5N7NE13NE11
1 day agoN5N4CalmCalmS4SW4S4S4S3S4S3S4S4S33S5W7SW5SW8SW11W8W9S7SW6
2 days agoSW9SW9SW7E9SW5SW6SW4SW3W3W3CalmCalmNW3N9N7NE7CalmNE8NE10N5NE74N8NW8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.