Monday, November18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Buffalo, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 4:51PM Monday November 18, 2019 12:57 AM EST (05:57 UTC) Moonrise 10:34PMMoonset 12:43PM Illumination 65% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 1234 Pm Est Sun Nov 17 2019
This afternoon..Southeast winds less than 10 knots becoming east. Sunny.
Tonight..Southeast winds less than 10 knots. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming mostly cloudy.
Monday..Light and variable winds. Mostly cloudy.
Monday night..Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming west. A chance of snow and rain showers.
Tuesday..West winds 10 knots or less. A chance of snow showers during the day, then a chance of snow and rain showers Tuesday night.
Wednesday..West winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. A chance of rain and snow showers during the day.
Thursday..South winds 10 knots or less becoming west and increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Rain showers likely. The water temperature off buffalo is 45 degrees.
LEZ020 Expires:201911172215;;411475 FZUS51 KBUF 171734 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1234 PM EST Sun Nov 17 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ020-172215-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Buffalo, NY
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location: 42.85, -79.05     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 180238
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
938 pm est Sun nov 17 2019

Synopsis
Dry and cold conditions will continue through tonight as high
pressure gradually moves eastward across northern new england. A
coastal storm is expected to bring a wintry mix or rain to portions
of the region midday Monday through Monday night.

Near term through Monday night
The region will become situated between a coastal low moving
north along the east coast and a cold front approaching from the
upper great lakes tonight. Low level moisture will be increasing
from the south-southeast and low clouds will expand into most areas
later tonight. Moisture ahead of the approaching cold front will
stay confined to the west. Dry conditions expected overnight with
lows in the mid to upper 20s across western ny and low 20s east of
lake ontario.

Latest model guidance has slowed down and shifted the track of the
coastal low a bit further to east. That said, even though the
coastal low mainly impacts eastern new england Monday through Monday
night, there is still uncertainty as to how much light precip occurs
on western fringe of the system across mainly the eastern lake
ontario region. In fact, with the onset of any precipitation now
holding off until at least midday across eastern portions of the
north country, the chances for any light freezing precipitation is
even less as surface temperatures should climb to above freezing by
this time. Looks even more now like the better chance for some light
icing occurs late Monday afternoon across the north country, before
deeper moisture and cooling aloft turns precip to a mix of rain and
snow later Monday evening becoming all snow later Monday night, as
the warm layer aloft is erased thus mitigating the chances for
freezing or frozen precipitation.

Meanwhile, from western ny toward finger lakes, precipitation
chances for most of Monday look minimal as a swath of enhanced
precipitation sets up just to the west over southwestern ontario
province where the right entrance region of a jet streak and area of
deeper moisture will reside ahead of the main upper longwave trough
over the upper great lakes while it transitions from positively to
negatively tilted during the day. By Monday evening into Monday
night, somewhat better chances for precip occur as upper lakes
trough slides across the area and strong shortwave pivots to the
south across pa through the base of the mean trough, then into
southern new england by later Monday night. Ptype will likely start
out as a mixed bag (rain frz rain drizzle frz drizzle), however as
cooler air works in aloft effectively removing the warm layer aloft,
precipitation will eventually transition to a rain snow mix,
changing to all light snow by late Monday night for some areas.

Based on the potential for mixed precip and some light icing Monday
night, did continue mention in the hwo. However, any ice and or snow
amounts look to be minimal. With regard to temperatures, highs on
Monday will mainly be in the mid to upper 30s area wide, with far
northern jefferson county struggling to reach the mid 30s as
northeast flow funnels cold air down the saint lawrence valley. Lows
Monday night lows will bottom out in the mid 20s east of lake
ontario, with upper 20s to around freezing elsewhere.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday
A broad trough will be in place over the area to start Tuesday,
and cyclonic flow over the area early Tuesday will result from
an area of low pressure to our east. A brief bout of cold air
advection will continue through this time period, helping to
trigger a weak lake response from both lakes on Tuesday into
early Wednesday. 850h temperatures will cool to around -5c by
Tuesday evening and remain steady through the day on Wednesday
before warming begins late Wednesday.

A weak shortwave trough will dive southeast from the midwest on
Tuesday afternoon to the DELMARVA coast on Wednesday afternoon. This
trough will help provide increased moisture and lift for a lake
response as it passes just south of the area. Rain and snow showers
will result from the increased synoptic moisture and cooling aloft
at 850h. Most locations on Tuesday will have rain showers or a mix
of rain and snow showers, with the highest terrain east of lake
ontario remaining all snow. High temperatures on Tuesday will be in
the mid to upper 30s, with areas east of lake ontario struggling to
warm above freezing.

As temperatures cool Tuesday night, most of the precipitation will
changeover to all snow from the higher elevations to the lower
elevations. With cooling temps Tuesday night, this will be the best
timing for accumulating snow before a warmup ensues Wednesday
morning. Areas east and southeast of the lakes can expect around an
inch of snow Tuesday night before snow starts to changeover to a mix
and then eventually rain Wednesday morning. Temperatures Tuesday
night will hover near freezing for most areas, with areas east of
lake ontario cooling to the mid and upper 20s. With these temps in
mind, any snow that does accumulate will be hard pressed to remain
into the day on Wednesday, especially in the lower elevations.

Any snow falling around daybreak on Wednesday will changeover to a
mix, and then to all rain by the mid to late morning, with some of
the higher spots in the area taking longer to changeover and
possibly not changing over completely. Precipitation overall will be
light, with QPF amounts from rain and snow for Tuesday into
Wednesday of around a tenth of an inch for the more favorable lake
areas east and southeast of both lakes, with other areas less than
that receiving a few hundredths of an inch. Precipitation on
Wednesday will taper off as the day progresses with the shortwave
trough moving out of the area and as warm air advection warms temps
aloft, reducing the potential for any continued lake response.

Temperatures on Wednesday will be in the upper 30s to low 40s with
areas east of lake ontario in the mid 30s.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday
This period looks to start out dry as heights rise in the wake of
the departing mid level trough with high pressure nosing in from the
south. A low pressure system is forecast to develop quickly Thursday
into Thursday night, crossing the western great lakes into southern
quebec. There is uncertainty with the strength and timing of this
system, but model consensus tracks this system to our northwest,
putting our area in the warm sector. Thursday will be the
warmest day of the total forecast period with highs in the mid
to upper 40s, perhaps a few lower 50s.

Precipitation chances will ramp up by Thursday afternoon into
Thursday night as a strengthening low level jet transports
moisture along an advancing cold front. Temperature profiles
looks too warm for any snow for most areas, but usual spots of
higher elevations could see a mix with snow, especially as the
precipitation starts to wind down late Thursday night and early
Friday as colder air arrives behind the cold front.

Temperatures will continue to cool Friday, but will remain
marginal enough to keep a mix of rain snow showers for much of
Friday. After mainly snow showers on Friday night, will see mix
of rain and snow showers again by Saturday afternoon as slight
warming results in a more typical changeable fall like weather
pattern (as compared to the more persistent cold we have seen
recently).

Aside from first rain then wintry weather, wind be the other main
story during this time frame. It will become breezy to downright
windy Thursday night, and pretty much remaining that way for much of
the remainder of the period. Low pressure moving northeast across
michigan and the central lakes will be deepening as it passes by to
our west later Thursday and Thursday night, which is one key
component looked at for seeing stronger winds across our area. That
said, despite a 40-50 knot low level jet poised to move across the
area Thursday afternoon night, it will be difficult to fully mix
this jet down to the surface as it resides ahead of the surface cold
front in the warm air advection regime. There is also upward
vertical motion (lift) in the low levels ahead of the cold front.

Would like to see downward vertical motion and cold air advection in
this layer, which would help to force the stronger winds to surface.

All that said, it will still be quite windy, especially Friday and
Friday night when strong pressure gradient coincident with cold air
advection deeper mixing.

Aviation 03z Monday through Friday
Vfr CIGS across the region will persist into Monday morning... Then
as atlantic moisture deepens ahead of a broad surface trough... Cigs
will lower to MVFR levels for the mid and late afternoon.

Ifr to MVFR CIGS are expected regionwide Monday night. These lower
cigs will be accompanied by some mixed precipitation.

Outlook...

Monday and Tuesday... Mainly MVFRVFR with a chance of showers.

Wednesday... MainlyVFR with a chance of showers.

Thursday... MVFRVFR with a chance of showers.

Marine
High pressure moving from the st lawrence valley to the canadian
maritimes during the next 36 hours will result in veering winds
across the lower great lakes... With a southeasterly flow through
tonight. The easterly component will direct the highest wave action
and choppiest conditions into canadian waters.

Winds and waves will remain below small craft advisory levels Monday
and Monday night... As a weak trough will cross the region.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Hsk tma
near term... Jm rsh tma
short term... Jla
long term... Jla jm
aviation... Rsh
marine... Hsk rsh tma


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 9 mi57 min E 5.1 G 7 34°F 43°F1013.7 hPa (-2.3)19°F
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 11 mi63 min 33°F 1013 hPa
45142 - Port Colborne 15 mi57 min SSE 7.8 G 9.7 41°F 46°F1 ft1013.4 hPa (-1.8)
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 16 mi63 min 37°F 1013.7 hPa
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 29 mi57 min SSE 9.9 G 14 38°F 1013 hPa (-2.4)
45139 - West Lake Ontario - Grimsby 38 mi117 min SE 7.8 G 7.8 39°F 43°F2 ft1014.1 hPa (-2.4)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 38 mi57 min SE 6 G 8 34°F 1015.2 hPa (-2.4)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport, NY18 mi63 minE 510.00 miA Few Clouds32°F26°F79%1014.1 hPa
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY19 mi64 minESE 510.00 miFair28°F23°F81%1014.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBUF

Wind History from BUF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6E5E3CalmE5SE6SE8SE8SE6SE6SE8SE9SE76S5SE7SE7SE8SE10SE6SE6SE7E5E5
1 day agoN9NE7NE7NE8NE7NE7NE7NE6NE9E14
G19
E11E10E9NE10NE13E13NE12NE9E10E7E7E9E8E6
2 days agoW7W8W8W9W9W8W10W13W16
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W12SW10W8W12W8W10W8N9
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Tide / Current Tables for
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.