Sunrise 5:45 AM   Sunset 8:39 PM Moonrise 4:57 PM   Moonset 3:09 AM

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LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 432 Pm Edt Mon May 20 2024
Tonight - South winds 10 knots or less. Partly cloudy. Tuesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Mostly Sunny. Tuesday night - Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Partly cloudy. Wednesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Wednesday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Thursday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely. Friday - West winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Sunny. Saturday - Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Partly cloudy.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off buffalo is 59 degrees.

LEZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 202115 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 515 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
It will certainly be air conditioner weather during the next couple days...as a mid summer airmass will be in place with temperatures averaging WELL ABOVE normal and increasingly uncomfortable humidity levels. While this airmass will favor some spotty thunderstorms inland from the lakes on Tuesday...a much higher risk for storms will be on Wednesday when a cold front will approach the region.
Cooler more comfortable weather can be expected Thursday into the start of the Memorial Day weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Dry weather expected for the duration of tonight. Looks like there will be a bit more way of wind in the boundary layer, so less efficient radiational cooling making it a bit harder for fog formation overnight. Warm overnight lows in the mid 60s along the lake plains with some upper 50s farther inland.

Summer-like warmth will continue Tuesday. The mid-level ridge and surface high will slide east to the coast through Tuesday entrenching the area within the warm sector. Temperatures about 15 to 20 degrees above normal with most highs in the mid to upper 80s, with perhaps a few 90 degree readings in the normal warmer spots in the Genesee Valley. Warmest heat indices may get into the lower 90s. Chances of afternoon convection look a bit better with the approach of a weak shortwave trough. Though most of this energy will focus north of the area, development along a lake breeze boundary will be quite possible given the expected higher instability.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
A broad based upper level trough spread across the western half of the CONUS Tuesday night, will allow for a few shortwaves to ripple through. Well to the north of New York, a remnant convective shortwave trough will continue to pass east across northern Ontario and Quebec. With its passage the lingering showers and thunderstorms, now across the eastern portions of the North Country will continue to diminish shortly after sunset due to the lack of diurnal heating. Meanwhile to the west, the next potent convective shortwave trough over Minnesota will continue to lift north, as a result this will support surface low pressure over northern Minnesota to continue to lift northeastward into southwestern Ontario. Extending southward from this low is a cold front lying across Lake Michigan towards the southern Mississippi Valley.
Provided this set up, warm moist air will continue to advect into the area Tuesday night creating some muggy sleeping conditions with lows ranging in the 60s.

Additionally, with the cold front to the west of the area Wednesday morning, the day will start off dry ahead of its prefrontal trough.
As the front and prefrontal trough marches eastward Wednesday, there is an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity by Wednesday afternoon and evening. With the afternoon/evening arrival time, this will support a few stronger storms as plenty of instability and ample moisture. One of the saving graces and hindering the severity of the storms is the later arrival of the stronger winds, thusly limiting the shear. With all of this being said, a few gusty winds are not out of question since there is bountiful instability and moisture. In line with this thinking, the Storm Prediction Center continues to support a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms on Wednesday. Also, given the inch and a half PWAT values some heavy downpours will also be possible, however ample storm motion should keep the activity moving and limit flooding to a minimum. Similar to Tuesday, southwest winds will transport warm moist air into the region Wednesday and support another day of temperatures ranging in the 80s, though Wednesday will be a few degrees warmer.

The cold front and the next round of showers will then cross the area Wednesday night into the first half of Thursday. Due to the timing of the frontal passage and the lack of diurnal heating, severe chances are diminished. For the later half of Thursday, dry air will begin to advect into the region drying out conditions from west to east, where the area will be completely dry by Thursday night. With the passage of the front Wednesday night into Thursday, expect temperatures to cool in the wake of the front by nearly 10 degrees. Highs Thursday will rand in the 70s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
High pressure over our region will begin the period dry with fair weather. Still some uncertainty when the next chance for showers will arrive. A stationary boundary well to our south will lift northward as a warm front through OH/PA...but moisture and showers with this feature may just stay to our south Saturday - Saturday night.

An area of deepening low pressure cutting through the western Great Lakes Sunday will bring this warm front to our south up across our region for Sunday with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Lingering boundaries and as the surface low draws closer to our region Monday will continue chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Comfortable dewpoints in the 40s to lower 50s Friday and Saturday will become a bit higher with the warm front Sunday and Monday.
Dewpoints in the mid 50s to around 60F will give a touch of humidity to the air for the end of the holiday weekend.

AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
While there can be a spotty shower or isolated thunderstorm across the western Southern Tier late this afternoon/early evening...VFR weather with light winds will be in place through Tuesday night.

Outlook...

Wednesday...VFR/MVFR. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Thursday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers.
Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR.

MARINE
Light winds with minimal wave action expected on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario through tonight.

South winds develop and begin to pick up by Tuesday as a cold front near the eastern Great Lakes, but conditions will likely remain below small craft levels. The next chance at small craft conditions may materialize by midweek as low pressure sends a cold front into the eastern Great Lakes.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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