Thursday, July29, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Fenton, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:21AMSunset 9:00PM Thursday July 29, 2021 5:29 AM EDT (09:29 UTC) Moonrise 11:11PMMoonset 11:18AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 954 Pm Edt Wed Jul 28 2021
Rest of tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy this evening becoming mostly cloudy. Showers with Thunderstorms likely after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. Showers with Thunderstorms likely in the morning...then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..North winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots early in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the east in the late evening and early morning...then becoming light and variable after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny in the morning...then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Partly cloudy with showers likely in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:202107290815;;617497 FZUS63 KDTX 290154 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 954 PM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A strong thunderstorm complex, 29.80 inches, tracks southeastward into the central Great Lakes tonight with scattered to numerous storms tracking through late overnight into Thursday morning. The associated cold front moves through by midday with a secondary, stronger backdoor cold front moving across Lake Huron late Thursday night. High pressure then builds in from the west on Friday. LCZ460-290815-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Fenton, MI
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location: 42.85, -83.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 290806 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 406 AM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

DISCUSSION.

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for urban type flooding potential across the Metro Detroit region through 10 am as a complex of thunderstorms with heavy rainfall moves Lower Michigan this morning.

At the surface a warm frontal zone is draped from north/central WI southeast through central lower MI and into Ohio. Early night strong convection tracked more NNW to SSE feeding on the the strong instability in southern WI into northern IL. Will be watching for greater development that will drive southeastward ahead of the surface reflection as it moves into western MI. The low level jet of 30-35 kts will also be moving over southern Lake MI in west/southwest Michigan helping support stronger convection. Late night trends leaning towards this event ending up as more of a heavy rainfall threat than a damaging wind threat, as the greater threat will stay to the west and southwest of southeast Michigan. However, there will still be potential for some isolated to scattered damaging winds through the early morning with the warm front still hanging around. A Marginal/Slight Risk still in place through 12Z across most of the CWA seems appropriate still.

Timing of the strongest convection into southeast Michigan still expected within the 08-012Z time frame in conjunction with the arrival and progression of the low level jet this morning. High moisture content will accompany this system. Upstream 00Z RAOBs last evening picked up PWATs around 1.50 to 1.75 inches. Latest RAP forecast still has PWATs at 1.75 to just over 2.00 inches over southeast Michigan by 12Z. The high degree of moisture should bring potential for high rainfall rates during the aforementioned time frame as well as any development associated with a surface low as it drifts into central MI later in the morning.

This morning still carries some degree of uncertainty with regards to intensity and/or coverage of both the lead convection as well as any trailing convection. At press time, heaviest rainfall is moving southwest of the CWA with elevated convection rippling off the front across central MI and into the Saginaw Valley. There will be a bookend vortex forecast to move into central Michigan and result in slower moving and training convection producing heavy rainfall. This feature will be what likely brings the potential for 1-3 inches of rainfall across Lower Michigan through the morning hours. There is a scenario where heaviest rainfall just grazes the southwest portions of the CWA.

By the afternoon the main complex will push south of the state. Lower level cold air advection behind the system with surface height rises moving in from the northwest will result in temperatures cooling off and clearing skies. Pleasant weather expected for Friday with high temperatures in the low to mid 70s and much less humid conditions as dewpoints fall into the 50s. Mostly stable conditions hold through Saturday morning until broad cyclonic flow aloft ushers in the next shortwave diving out of Ontario directly and over the central Great Lakes. This will be the next chances for rainfall. Timing appears to be late Saturday into Sunday.

After a slightly warmup on Saturday towards the upper 70s before a reinforcing shot of cooler air settles back into the region by late Sunday. This will be the result of broad troughing over taking the eastern half of the CONUS the early to mid next week. Forecast high temperatures to start next week back fall back into the low 70s. Overall rain chances should be limited given the deeper moisture will be pushed back towards the Gulf Coast states. Any rainfall chances will be governed by the evolution of shortwaves within the cyclonic flow and the eventual breakdown of the trough into late next week.

MARINE.

A thunderstorm complex and associated low pressure move through the central Great Lakes this morning with heavy rainfall and scattered strong to severe wind gusts in excess of 50 kt possible, especially across southern Lake Huron, Lake St. Clair, and western Lake Erie. The cold front follows by midday with the bulk of the showers/storms moving out and cooler northwest wind ensuing through the day. A secondary backdoor cold front drops southward across Lake Huron late tonight with winds veering to northeast and increasing to 20-25 kt Friday morning. This will lead to a growing wave field over southern Lake Huron with Small Craft Advisories likely becoming needed around the Thumb late overnight through Friday morning. High pressure then builds in from the west late Friday with lighter northerly flow backing to the northwest.

HYDROLOGY.

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect through 10 am this morning for a portion of Southeast Michigan including Metro Detroit. The potential exists for total rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches resulting from high rainfall rates with PWATs near or at 2.00 inches. This could lead to flooding of low lying and prone urban areas along with rises in area creeks and streams. Rainfall rates will exceed 1 inch per hour in thunderstorm activity with the favored area for highest rainfall totals south of the I-69 corridor.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 1158 PM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

AVIATION .

Potential remains for showers and thunderstorms to increase in coverage throughout the southeast MI airspace mid morning /09z-12z/ as a mid level wave tracks across the area. Recent radar trends currently suggest the strongest convection currently over central Wisconsin will tend to shift south-southeast and remain west of the corridor. Some degree of development east of this current activity affords this window for possible tsra/shra, with an accompanying reduction visibility and some gusty winds. Lingering rainfall within brief MVFR conditions in the wake of this complex carries into the latter half of the morning, before cloud bases lift during the afternoon. Winds will shift to northwesterly for the afternoon period.

For DTW . Main window for thunderstorms centered 09z-11z, with potential for brief gusty winds from the northwest and some visibility restrictions. Lingering convective showers maintains potential for cloud bases to remain below 5000 ft through midday.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* High for cigs aob 5000 ft after 09z through late morning Thursday. Low Thursday afternoon and evening. * Moderate for thunderstorms 09z-11z Thursday morning.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . Flash Flood Watch until 10 AM EDT this morning for MIZ068>070-075- 076-082-083.

Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

DISCUSSION . AA MARINE . TF HYDROLOGY . AA AVIATION . MR

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 52 mi29 min SSW 6 G 8 76°F 1012.2 hPa (-1.7)
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 66 mi39 min SW 12 G 14 74°F 1009.1 hPa

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Flint, Bishop International Airport, MI9 mi36 minSSW 810.00 miLight Rain76°F71°F85%1009.8 hPa
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport, MI20 mi36 minSW 710.00 miFair75°F69°F82%1010.1 hPa
Howell, Livingston County Airport, MI21 mi34 minSW 710.00 miLight Rain75°F72°F90%1011.5 hPa
Owosso, Owosso Community Airport, MI24 mi34 minSSW 410.00 miLight Rain74°F69°F83%1010.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFNT

Wind History from FNT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmW3CalmW3CalmNW4W54NW6W54NW4N7N5NE4SE5CalmS3CalmS5S5S6S9SW8
1 day agoSW5W10SW6SW7SW6W6NW12W7N65NW9W9W7W4SW4S3S4SW6W4W4SW5W3SW4Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmSW3SW4W5W5W9W7W11NW10
G19
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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