Thursday, July9, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Fenton, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 9:16PM Thursday July 9, 2020 7:20 AM EDT (11:20 UTC) Moonrise 11:20PMMoonset 9:31AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 932 Pm Edt Wed Jul 8 2020
Rest of tonight..Light and variable winds. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the south in the late morning and afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots early in the evening becoming light and variable. Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Light and variable winds becoming south 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Partly Sunny with showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the northwest in the late evening and overnight. Mostly cloudy with showers and Thunderstorms likely in the evening...then partly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny becoming mostly clear. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:202007090815;;544389 FZUS63 KDTX 090132 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 932 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure around 29.90 inches will build into the area and will hold through Thursday. The next trough of low pressure around 29.70 inches will sweep through the area on Friday. LCZ460-090815-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Fenton, MI
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location: 42.85, -83.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 091108 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 708 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

AVIATION.

Another day of heat and humidity leads to pop-up thunderstorms during the afternoon. Coverage and timing estimates are once again spread out over a wide range of space/hours and better left to later updates for a specified mention in the forecast. Otherwise, VFR is in place outside of any storms in a combination of patchy mid and high clouds this morning followed by building cumulus this afternoon. A cold front moving into the Midwest nudges weak high pressure eastward and results in a light southerly wind in SE Mi today and tonight. Given the approaching front and mesoscale influence of thunderstorms, there is a chance of activity lasting later tonight with some remnant showers possibly moving in toward sunrise Friday.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* Low for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 430 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

DISCUSSION .

Better organization of low- to mid-level southwest flow sets up today as the mid-level ridge axis has advanced east of the area. While this wind is weak (below 15 kt), it will sustain temperature and moisture advection into SE Michigan today with 850mb temps hovering around 19 to 20C and sfc dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Another hot and muggy day is in store with highs in the lower to mid 90s and heat indices approaching 100 degrees this afternoon. The Heat Advisory has been expanded to include all counties in SE Michigan except for the Thumb. Thinking that the lake breeze and an earlier start to convection in the Thumb will keep the heat index in check there. This will be the eighth consecutive 90+ degree day for Metro Detroit and the ninth for Flint.

Scattered showers and storms are again looking to initiate today as surface convergence enhanced by the lake breezes will capitalize on good instability (1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and a weakly capped environment. An uptick in convective coverage may be noted today compared to yesterday as subtle height falls arrive by the afternoon while the resident ridge continues to depart to the east. Wind shear will be weak /on the order of 10 to 15 kt/ and disorganized slow- moving pop-up showers and storms will again be the convective mode today. The pulse-type convection will quickly become outflow dominant and is not likely to become severe, but as seen the past couple days, a few localized strong microburst wind gusts are certainly possible in the more robust updrafts as they become precip loaded. Heavy downpours can be expected in any activity. Any storms will provide brief relief from the heat but will only enhance the humidity for this evening. Another warm and muggy night tonight with lows staying in the 70s.

A pattern shift commences over the Great Lakes as a longwave trough moves in from the Midwest tonight into Friday. Model guidance continues to hone in on a shortwave developing from last night's convection over SD/NE which then tracks east into the local area by late Friday. With largely the same air mass still in place early Friday, looking at another warm and muggy day but with considerably more cloud cover and convection moving in ahead of the wave during the late morning and afternoon. The best forcing for widespread showers and storms arrives during the evening. Wind shear on the order of 20 to 25 kt will be slightly more supportive of storm organization compared to recent days, but at this time the severe weather threat still looks low. Instability remains a question mark at this point with uncertainty in how early day activity evolves.

The longwave trough then receives reinforcement over the Great Lakes this weekend from several Pacific shortwaves that track over the periphery of the Four Corners ridge. This keeps a cooler northwest flow pattern overhead with temperatures returning closer to normal and humidity lowering for the weekend and early next week. Will keep chance PoPs in place for this period as showers and storms will be possible while the troughing resides overhead and the shortwave impulses track through. The best chance currently looks to arrive Sunday. Mid-range model guidance depicts an Ohio/Tennessee Valley ridge developing by mid week which directs in a plume of hot air from the central Mississippi Valley. This likely brings the return of hot and humid conditions for the midweek period.

MARINE .

A weak pressure gradient across the region will persist through Thursday night while providing light and variable winds across the region. Afternoon thunderstorm chances will exist on Thursday but remain primarily over land areas where instability will be a little greater. A weak area of low pressure will then move across Lower Michigan on Friday. This system will bring a much better chance for thunderstorms to the marine areas. This system will also result in light south-southeast winds across the marine areas Friday with winds backing toward the northwest by Saturday as the low pressure system moves east of the region.

HYDROLOGY .

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to occur across portions of southeast Michigan this afternoon and evening. Given precipitable water values around 1.50 inches, heavy downpours will be possible in thunderstorms which will be slow-moving and may lead to over an inch of rainfall for localized areas. Should this occur over urban or poor drainage areas, minor flooding may become a concern.

Showers and storms then become more likely on Friday with the best chance for widespread activity Friday afternoon and evening. A basin- averaged 0.50 to 1.00 inches is forecast across southeast Michigan, with any thunderstorms likely leading to locally higher totals. With antecedent dry conditions, widespread flooding concerns are not expected. However, urban, low-lying, and otherwise flood-prone areas that see numerous rounds of storms may experience minor flooding.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

MI . Heat Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for MIZ047-048-053-060>062- 068>070-075-076-082-083.

Lake Huron . NONE.

Lake St Clair . NONE.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.



AVIATION . BT DISCUSSION . TF MARINE . DRK HYDROLOGY . TF

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 52 mi80 min W 1 G 1.9 75°F 1013.9 hPa (+0.7)
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 66 mi80 min SSW 6 G 7 78°F 1012.2 hPa (+0.7)

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Flint, Bishop International Airport, MI9 mi87 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds69°F68°F96%1013.1 hPa
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport, MI20 mi87 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds72°F68°F87%1012.7 hPa
Howell, Livingston County Airport, MI21 mi45 minN 07.00 miFair71°F69°F95%1014.2 hPa
Owosso, Owosso Community Airport, MI24 mi45 minN 03.00 miFog/Mist70°F69°F98%1013.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFNT

Wind History from FNT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmNW4SW333N10
G17
NW8E9SE3SW8W3SW3CalmS4S4CalmCalmS3S3CalmCalmS3
1 day agoCalmW54NW9W9W6
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NW7S5CalmW13
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W4CalmSE3S4SW4W3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmS4S4SW6S4S7SW5SW6SW7S6SW8SW4S4S5S5S6S5S6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.