Sunrise 5:56 AM   Sunset 8:06 PM Moonrise 1:10 AM   Moonset 9:56 AM

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LOZ044 Expires:202404301515;;363484 Fzus51 Kbuf 300827 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 427 am edt Tue apr 30 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-301515- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 427 am edt Tue apr 30 2024
Today - Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms late this morning. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms this afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less. Tonight - Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming north. A chance of showers in the evening. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday - Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday night - East winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Thursday - West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. Friday - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less. Saturday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 46 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBGM 301411 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1011 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front passage this afternoon and evening will bring widespread rain showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms may be severe. Wednesday and Thursday will be dry and mild.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
10 AM update...
Little change overall, just updated temperatures through the morning hours. With mostly sunny skies across the CWA we are watching the evolution of convection this afternoon, mid level lapse rates will be lower this afternoon but still 30 to 40 knots of shear so there is the potential for one or two stronger storms.

630 am update...

Minor changes to the timing and placement of the convection moving through CNY this morning.

350 am update...

A surface front remains across the area. A weak low and trailing trough in Steuben County has caused thunderstorms to form. This system will move east across the area early this morning with some heavy rain. If any clearing occurs behind it there is a small window where valley fog could form before sunrise. Mid level lapse rates are high early this morning providing some instability. Wind shear is around 30 kts.

For this afternoon and evening WPC still has a marginal risk of excessive rainfall and SPC still has general thunder.
Thunderstorms later today will have heavy rain, gusty winds, and small hail. Models agree on a cluster of discrete thunderstorms forming midday in the central southern tier and Finger Lakes just ahead of a cold front. This moves east through the afternoon into early evening before exiting to the east by 8 PM.
Some models show the storms forming a line.

Clearing late this morning will push temperatures into the 70s creating around 1k of cape. Lapse rates are good but not great.
0 to 6km Bulk shear is 35 to 40 kts. PWATs peak around 1.5 inches providing plenty of moisture. The low level jet is light though. Some locations could get an inch or two of rain in an hour which is around current flash flood guidance. There could be isolated water problems especially in urban areas.
Thunderstorms could combine or aid each other to briefly put down some damaging winds this afternoon and evening. Given the lift through a deep area of below freezing air aloft small hail is likely but large hail would be rare. A marine layer over the southeast counties this morning could hang on in Sullivan and Pike Counties. This will keep temperatures cooler and suppress the thunderstorms late today.

Late tonight through Wednesday will be mainly dry. A few late day showers are possible over the terrain in the western Catskills and the Endless Mountains in NEPA. Temperatures late tonight will fall into the 50s and upper 40s. Wednesday air will be cooler aloft but more sunshine will counteract that. Highs will be from the upper 60s to the mid 70s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
325 AM Update...

The short term will be dominated by ridging with temperatures above average through the period. Forecast soundings continue to show dry air aloft and a capping inversion that should limit and showers and thunderstorms. Kept just slight chance for showers in the Catskills Thursday afternoon, as terrain could help break the capping in place.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
330 AM Update...

Ridging should hold until the weekend and then the pattern will become more active with zonal flow aloft. This will allow for several weak perturbations to push through from Saturday into the beginning of next week. Shower chances start to increase on Saturday as frontal boundary slowly progresses from west to east across the region. High pressure will be stationed over the Atlantic and the front will have a hard time progressing eastward, so rainshowers will likely linger right through Sunday. Temperatures will be above normal on Friday, however with the rainshowers expected this weekend, we will see temperatures return back to normal with highs in the low 60s.

AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
645 am update...

Convection is exiting to the east now so that it won't be affecting taf sites. This convection was slower so MVFR fog didn't happen at KELM or anywhere else.

After 17z steadier showers and thunderstorms are expected.
Heavier rain could drop vsbys to 2sm in addition to MVFR cigs.
In general cigs will fall to fuel alternate MVFR by 21z.
SYR/RME/BGM/ITH should fall to IFR due to cigs around 21z and continue through the night. Possible improvement after 10z.

Winds will be mostly light to start. Southwest winds at 5 to 10 kts late this morning shift to northwest this evening, then become light during the overnight.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Lingering morning clouds and restrictions possible, becoming VFR in the afternoon.

Thursday...VFR Likely.

Friday..Mainly VFR, but late day showers/t'storms possible.

Saturday...Restrictions possible in showers and thunderstorms.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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