Thursday, July16, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Fabius, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:38AMSunset 8:42PM Thursday July 16, 2020 9:46 AM EDT (13:46 UTC) Moonrise 1:13AMMoonset 4:07PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:202007160915;;919653 Fzus51 Kbuf 160544 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 144 Am Edt Thu Jul 16 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-160915- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 144 Am Edt Thu Jul 16 2020
Overnight..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..South winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south. Showers and Thunderstorms. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..West winds 10 knots or less. A chance of showers. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 76 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fabius, NY
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location: 42.86, -76     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 161044 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 644 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020

SYNOPSIS. An area of showers and storms will gradually move in from the west later this afternoon and through the overnight hours. A few storms may produce gusty winds and heavy downpours. A few more scattered storms are possible Friday afternoon before a period of dry conditions Friday night through Saturday. The heat and humidity build late this weekend as high pressure returns, along with daily afternoon showers and storms.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/. 317 am update . Main concerns in the near term remain focused on the slightly cooler than average temperatures across the e/sern sections of the forecast area under a scattered layer of low clouds today . the potential for showers and thunderstorms moving in from the west later this afternoon, persisting overnight, and re-developing Friday afternoon to the east.

Upper level ridge axis is now east of the area over the New England coast with the surface high off the Maine coast. Upper trough is over the wrn Great Lakes and associated surface low near Chicago. This pattern is allowing for a steady south/se flow off the mid- Atlantic coast with a weak to modest supply of low level marine moisture being advected in across ne PA into s-central NY, resulting in a scattered layer of low/mid clouds this morning.

The clouds to the east are expected to persist through at least the mid morning time frame and keep a fairly stable air mass in place. Meanwhile, deeper layer clouds will thicken from the west as the upper trough and surface low approach from the w/sw. Areas of wrn NY into the Finger Lakes and wrn srn tier of NY will likely see more sun this afternoon which will ratchet temperatures up into the lower to mid 80s. Higher instability to the west combined with the incoming wave will trigger convective showers and storms over far wrn NY. These storms will progress eastward later this afternoon and into the evening, but will likely arrive into central NY by the time the sun begins to set, and will also be moving into a slightly more stable air mass. Therefore, there could be a few strong to marginally severe storms in w-central NY later today, but for the most part the storms should be losing their intensity as they track into the forecast area. The main threat will be damaging winds.

The potential for showers and storms overnight tonight will persist even though it appears the upper level support with the short wave will track out ahead of the surface low and lower the overall probability for enhancing convection. There should be enough deep moisture and mesoscale forcing (WAA, low level convergence) with the surface low to support a continuous supply of rain showers. There remains a marginal risk of heavy rain within this slightly unstable but very moist air mass. PWATs 1.75 to 2 inches will prove sufficient for some embedded pockets of heavy rain through the overnight hours. The heavy rain threat appears to be mainly across the nrn counties . which are not as sensitive as the southern portions.

A secondary upper short wave will move in from the west by Friday morning and supply more support for large scale lift through the day. There is also some indication that the early morning showers may intensify around or just after sunrise Friday. A modest amt of mid level instability and steeper mid level lapse rates should help to blossom elevated convection through the mid morning time frame.

A trailing cold front associated with the surface low will remain draped across the region Friday afternoon and interact with a diurnally induced unstable air mass . triggering more showers and storms through the afternoon. Severe weather is not anticipated with this round of storms. Afternoon high temperatures Friday will climb into the 80s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. 3AM Update .

Rain chances wrap up into Friday night behind the departing shortwave, with a ridge building in and allowing for dry weather into Saturday. Temperatures Friday night fall back into the upper 50s and lower 60s under partly cloudy skies.

Saturday will turn warmer than on Friday with sunny skies and warm air advection. Widespread highs in the mid/upper 80s are expected, but the lower elevations of the Finger Lakes and the Wyoming valley should peak in the lower 90s. Dry weather continues into the night, but continued warm air advection will keep temperatures warmer than the previous night with lows in the mid/upper 60s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. 300 AM UPDATE .

Sunday looks to be the warmest day of the extended period. 850 mb temperatures climb to around 18C to 20C with strong warm, moist air advection. Highs peak in the low/mid 90s across most of the area, though some of the higher elevations may stay in the upper 80s. Dewpoints will rise into the upper 60s and lower 70s, leading to heat indices in the mid and upper 90s across the lower elevations of the Wyoming valley and the Finger Lakes and towards the Syracuse metro. This will likely necessitate heat headlines for central NY, but for now, will simply mention this in the HWO.

Otherwise, unsettled weather will be the around for the extended period. A shortwave moving into the northeastern US will touch off some chances for showers and storms across our western zones into the afternoon, but this becomes more likely into the evening as this moves into western NY and PA. Any stronger storms are currently looking more likely across western NY and PA, with the frontal boundary moving into our area after peak heating. However, if this can move through earlier, a warm and unstable airmass would lead to better chances for strong storms across our area.

The frontal boundary will move south of our area into Monday with relatively cooler temperatures peaking in the 80s the rest of the extended period. Chances for diurnal showers and storms continue Monday and Tuesday as high pressure settles over the southeastern US and our area sees a chance for passing ripples in mainly zonal flow aloft. A trough starts to move into the Great Lakes for Wednesday, keeping in chances for showers and storms into the middle of the week.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. A scattered MVFR marine layer remains in place across the region this morning . mainly KBGM, KELM and KAVP. Ceilings expected to slowly lift to VFR around or just after 14Z. Focus then turns to south and southeast wind gusts around 20 knots in the afternoon and the potential for showers after 21Z . continuing into the evening . mainly for the NY terminals. The threat for thunderstorms still remains on the low side . and confidence in timing and location is low, so have kept mention of TS out of the TAFs at this point. MVFR ceilings will likely return after 03Z as the boundary layer starts to collapse within a moist layer . with lingering rain showers overnight and ceilings dropping to IFR at KRME, KITH, KELM and KBGM.

There is also a low potential for LLWS after 03Z, but confidence is too low to include in TAFs at this point.

Outlook .

Friday . VFR except brief/localized restrictions possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Friday night through Saturday night . Generally VFR with possible morning fog at KELM.

Sunday and Monday . Mostly VFR conditions but with brief restrictions possible in afternoon/evening convection.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . BJT NEAR TERM . BJT SHORT TERM . HLC LONG TERM . HLC AVIATION . BJT/MWG


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 50 mi76 min SSE 14 G 21
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 89 mi46 min S 15 G 22 79°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY19 mi52 minSSE 1510.00 miMostly Cloudy76°F62°F62%1020.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSYR

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalm3Calm44CalmNE4NE5E6NE6E5NE4E5E4E5E4SE7SE11SE12SE12
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1 day agoW5W7CalmW5NW11
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.