Monday, January25, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Fabius, NY

Version 3.4
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8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:24AMSunset 5:09PM Monday January 25, 2021 3:16 PM EST (20:16 UTC) Moonrise 2:04PMMoonset 5:01AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:202101252215;;468361 Fzus51 Kbuf 251441 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 941 Am Est Mon Jan 25 2021 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-252215- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 941 Am Est Mon Jan 25 2021
This afternoon..South winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..Southeast winds increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..East winds 15 to 25 knots. Snow. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Tuesday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north. Snow. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Wednesday..North winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 38 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fabius, NY
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location: 42.86, -76     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 251735 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1235 PM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

SYNOPSIS. Quiet weather is expected today along with temperatures closer to normal for this time of the year. A weakening area of low pressure moves in early Tuesday morning, bringing a chance for accumulating snow and a wintry mix through Tuesday night.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/. 1230 PM Update . With low stratus dissipating along the NY thruway and light winds, cloud cover was lowered for this afternoon before the high clouds move in towards evening. PoPs were adjusted down between 10Z and 12Z tomorrow for NE PA as forecast soundings showed dry air near the surface so precipitation will likely be evaporating before it reaches the surface for the first few hours.

930 AM Update . Not much change to the forecast from earlier this morning. Adjusted temperatures to match warming trends over the next few hours.

530 AM Update:

Quiet weather is expected to continue through the first half of the near term period. Mostly clear skies, light winds, and a snow cover have created ideal radiational cooling conditions during the pre-dawn hours this morning, especially in Central NY. Temperatures have fallen into the single digits across many locations there, with some readings several degrees below zero in northern Oneida County. With this update, made some further adjustments to hourly temperatures to account for this. Also made minor adjustments to forecast sky cover through the mid- morning hours to closer match latest satellite trends.

Despite the very cold start to the day, temperatures today will warm up closer to our normal highs for this time of the year. Considering how cold it has been the last couple of days, this will be a pleasant change. High temperatures are expected to be in the upper 20s to mid 30s. High pressure will slowly depart the region today as a weakening storm system approaches. After a mostly sunny morning, higher clouds will slowly increase from southwest to northeast this afternoon and towards the evening.

An upper level trough and associated weakening surface low will move east-northeastward from the Midwest to western NY/PA by Tuesday afternoon. Trends with this system continue to be a bit slower and tracking a bit further north than previously expected. With the slower approach, expecting much of this evening to be dry with just increasing clouds. We now do not have any PoPs in our forecast until after 07Z/2AM EST, but most of the precipitation holds off until after 12Z/7AM EST. Precipitation likely begins as light snow across Northeast PA and the Twin Tiers, before spreading northward as Tuesday morning progresses.

With this system tracking further north, a warm nose aloft is expected to move into Northeast PA and even as far north as the southern Finger Lakes Region in NY. This creates a very challenging forecast, since this warm nose will likely allow the snow to mix or change over to sleet and/or freezing rain. In fact, this warm nose may be accompanied with a dry slot, possibly allowing precipitation to transition to freezing drizzle or even stop completely Tuesday afternoon. Greater confidence in this occurring is over the Wyoming Valley and Poconos, with less confidence further north. Greatest confidence for precipitation to remain as snow the entire event is across the northern Finger Lakes Region to the Catskills northward towards the NY Thruway corridor and the southern Tug Hill Region.

In terms of snow amounts, with this continued northward shift, highest amounts are expected to be in the above mentioned areas where precipitation is expected to remain as all snow. In these areas, we are currently expecting 3-5 inches of snow, with locally higher amounts possible. Then generally 2-3 inches of snow across the southern Finger Lakes and Twin Tiers. 1-3 inches across the rest of Northeast PA. Parts of the Wyoming Valley may see less than an inch. In addition, a glaze of ice accumulation is possible for much of Northeast PA northward towards the southern Finger Lakes. These amounts are highly subject to change considering the great deal of uncertainty regarding how far north the warm nose aloft gets/the exact track of the system. Due to still plenty of uncertainty and the fact that the start of precipitation is still more than 24 hours out, we we opted not to issue any Winter Weather Advisories yet with this forecast package and will let the day shift re-evaluate this afternoon. Overall, this will likely be more of a nuisance-type event, especially for late January standards.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. A slow moving storm system will rotate off the New Jersey coast Tuesday night as a short wave trough shoots into Western NY. Light snow will linger over our forecast area, possibly mixing with freezing rain from the Central Southern Tier of NY down through the Wyoming Valley of PA.

Northwesterly flow around the back side of the departing storm will bring a few lake effect snow showers into Upstate NY Wednesday and Wednesday evening, before transient high pressure causes a brief lull in the stormy pattern.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Cold northwesterly flow will keep below normal temperatures and a threat for scattered lake effect snow showers over the region on Thursday.

An Arctic airmass will dive into Northeastern NY Thursday night into Friday. This airmass will usher sharply colder temperatures into NY and PA and set off additional lake effect snow showers and possibly squalls.

After a quiet and chilly Saturday, a storm will move out of the Central Plains and spread snow showers and somewhat milder air into NY and PA Sunday.

AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. VFR conditions are expected at all terminals this afternoon into the first half of the night. Ceilings will be lowering through the night with MVFR conditions expected by around 12Z at terminals south of the NY Thruway. Warm front lifting N tomorrow brings a band of snow from S to N. Precipitation may start as snow at AVP and ELM but is expected to quickly transition to mixed precipitation. As the band of snow moves N, it will organize and strengthen before impacting SYR and RME between 16 and 18Z tomorrow.

Outlook . Tuesday Afternoon and Night . The shortwave begins to move out of the area with precipitation becoming more showery. Restrictions will still be likely at all terminals.

Wednesday . Possible lingering restrictions in scattered snow showers and leftover cloud cover for CNY terminals.

Wednesday night through Friday . Low confidence forecast with additional chances of snow showers/associated restrictions, especially at the Central NY terminals.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . BJG NEAR TERM . AJG/BJG SHORT TERM . DJP LONG TERM . DJP AVIATION . AJG


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 50 mi47 min SSE 6 G 8 30°F 1019.2 hPa14°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 89 mi17 min ENE 4.1 G 4.1 33°F 1020 hPa (-1.7)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 91 mi47 min 31°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY19 mi23 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy31°F14°F49%1019.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSYR

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW9W6W6CalmCalmCalmS4CalmSE3E4E5E4E4E4E4E4E5E5E4CalmCalmE3CalmCalm
1 day agoW13
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.