Friday, January24, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Fabius, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:25AMSunset 5:07PM Friday January 24, 2020 12:17 PM EST (17:17 UTC) Moonrise 7:29AMMoonset 4:52PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Sodus Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 1238 Am Est Fri Jan 24 2020
Overnight..East winds 10 knots or less. Cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Rain in the evening, then rain and snow overnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest and increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Snow and rain during the day, then snow showers likely Sunday night. Waves building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
LOZ044 Expires:202001241015;;426362 FZUS51 KBUF 240538 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1238 AM EST Fri Jan 24 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ044-045-241015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fabius, NY
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location: 42.86, -76     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 241405 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 905 AM EST Fri Jan 24 2020

SYNOPSIS. A low pressure area spinning out of the Ohio Valley will bring a mix of rain,snow and brief freezing rain to Central New York and Northeast Pennsylvania late tonight through Sunday. Scattered snow showers along with seasonable temperatures continue into Monday to Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. 845 am update . Wide range of current temperatures as we wait for better mixing to occur. Temperatures from mid 20s to mid 30s but highs still expected in the low and mid 40s. Another dry day with mixed precip moving in late tonight. Hazy sunshine again with a high overcast. Thicker clouds come in tonight.

630 AM Update . The main changes with this update have been to bump up temperatures for today. Temperatures overnight have come in warmer than expected, while guidance continues to show highs generally in the low/mid 40s this afternoon.

Previous discussion continues below. Another dry day ahead with high clouds spread across the area as high pressure slides off the east coast and an approaching cyclone moves into the lower Midwest. Temperatures starting in the 20s this morning peak in the upper 30s to mid 40s during the afternoon with light southeasterly winds.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. The biggest change with this update has been with precip type overnight. Precipitation spreads into our area after 0Z as the cyclone becomes vertically stacked and spins over Indiana and Ohio. Models continue to come in warmer, with 850 mb temperatures up to 1C to 3C Saturday morning while surface temperatures fall into the low 30s and even upper 20s across the highest elevations. Precipitation will thus fall mainly as rain but mix in with freezing rain Saturday morning where surface temperatures can drop to near and below freezing. Rain, and possibly some pockets of freezing rain, continues through Saturday afternoon with an occluded front passing through.

A lull in rain activity is expected into Saturday evening especially across our southern zones with the front out to the east and the upper level low starting to track across Erie and Ontario. Temperatures aloft finally start to drop back Saturday night into early Sunday as overnight lows drop to the low 30s, allowing for rain to start to mix in with snow if not changing over entirely overnight. Rain and snow continues the rest of Sunday, mainly across our central NY zones, with the system slowly moving out and continuing to pump moisture into our area. Highs in the mid to upper 30s are expected Sunday.

As far as rain, snow, and ice totals go, looking at rain accumulations up to a half to three quarters of an inch, with some minor within-bed rises across our streams. Some light ice accumulations are possible mainly across our highest elevations Saturday, but with road surface temperatures likely coming in fairly warm given warm afternoon temperatures both Friday and Saturday, significant travel impacts would not be expected. Snow totals continue to be pulled back as we now look to miss out entirely on snow until Saturday night. Less than an inch across most of the area, while the higher elevations around the Thruway and towards the Tug Hill pick up around 1 to 2 inches. Will continue to mention potential snow and ice accumulations in our HWO, but with snow totals continuing to drop and ice accumulations occurring during a brief window and mainly over the higher elevations early Saturday, we will hold off on any advisories.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. 330 AM Update .

Seasonably cold northwest flow under a broad upper level trough continues Monday through Wednesday across the region, with scattered snow showers around. Looks to dry out by Thursday as upper level ridging builds over the region, with temperatures remaining near average.

Initially, Monday into Monday night the upper level low over northern New England and the Canadian Maritimes may wrap some synoptic moisture back into the area. This should support high chance to low end likely PoPs for lake effect/enhanced snow showers across much of Central NY and into the far northern tier of PA. This tapers to perhaps a few flurries, but mainly dry weather toward the Wyoming Valley region of NE PA, Pike and southern Sullivan (NY) counties. 850mb temperatures are forecast to be around -6C to -9C Monday and Monday night . so again just cold enough for lake enhanced showers. Initially the flow is forecast to be 280-290 degrees for most of Monday, but then there is good agreement amongst the guidance that a secondary front/trough pushes through from north to south late in the day . with the flow turning more toward 310-320 degrees Monday night. These details can of course fluctuate or change a bit as we get closer in time. Snow accumulations remain uncertain at this time. Things going for accumulations are the added synoptic wrap around moisture . parameters going against include relatively mild boundary layer and surface temperatures and the snow growth region is progged to be at the top of the cloud layer (550-700mb or 10-15k ft agl).

Tuesday through Wednesday: The previously mentioned upper level low exits well off to the northeast. The area remains under a broad northwest flow pattern, with a few shortwaves or clipper type systems moving through. Will continue to mention a chance of snow showers for much of CNY this period. Remaining seasonably cold, with 850mb temperatures hovering between -7C to -10C this period . giving high temperatures in the upper 20s to mid-30s and overnight lows mainly in the 20s.

By Thursday, latest guidance shows ridging at the surface and aloft moving into the region from the Ohio Valley . this should act to turn the lake effect machine off . with mostly dry weather forecast. We reintroduce chances for snow or rain showers into the forecast by next Friday as a weak low pressure system moves into the Great Lakes region. Temperatures remain near or slightly above average.

AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Prevailing VFR expected throughout the TAF period.

Current satellite and observations do show a patch of MVFR CIGS across south central PA early this morning, and these lower level clouds (015-025 ft agl) are drifting off to the north. These could bring some tempo MVFR or borderline fuel alternate CIGS to KAVP this morning (12-15z). Otherwise, a few or sct lower level clouds could reach KBGM, KITH and KELM late morning into the afternoon. Besides this, expect bkn to ovc high clouds between 10k to 25k ft agl through this evening. Late tonight and into early Saturday morning CIGS lower to 3-4k ft agl from KITH to KBGM, KELM and KAVP between 25/09-12z. Some light rain also develop during this time, moving SW to NE across the region.

Southeast winds less than 10 kts gradually increase by late evening, between 7-15 kts. Of note is that low level wind shear (LLWS) is expected to develop at all terminals after about 25/02-04z . out of the southeast (130-150 degs) upwards of 40-50kts at 2k ft agl.

Outlook .

Saturday through Sunday . IFR conditions possible with a wintry mix of rain and snow likely. Patchy freezing rain possible early Saturday morning.

Monday and Tuesday . Occasional restrictions especially CNY in snow showers. Mainly VFR at KAVP.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . DGM/DJP/TAC NEAR TERM . HLC/TAC SHORT TERM . HLC LONG TERM . MJM AVIATION . MJM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 50 mi47 min SE 8 G 11 41°F 1024.9 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 89 mi77 min E 7 G 7 37°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 91 mi53 min 35°F 1023.4 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY19 mi23 minE 710.00 miOvercast41°F19°F43%1025 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSYR

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Last 24hrE4NE5NE4NE3CalmCalmCalmE4E4E3CalmE5E5E5E4CalmE3E4E6E5E5E5E8E7
1 day agoCalmSE3CalmNE3CalmE4E4E4E3E4SE4CalmCalmE3CalmE4E3E4E4E4E4NE3E4E3
2 days agoW5W8W6W7SW6SW6SW9W9SW4W13SW6S6SW8S7S6S6S5SW4S7S4SE4SE4SE5Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.