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LOZ044 Expires:202312101015;;201977 Fzus51 Kbuf 100236 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 936 pm est Sat dec 9 2023
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-101015- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 936 pm est Sat dec 9 2023
Rest of tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Showers likely late this evening, then rain after midnight. A chance of showers late. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Rain in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less building to 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots. Rain. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west to 30 knots. Snow with rain showers likely in the morning, then rain and snow showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 8 to 11 feet. Waves occasionally around 14 feet.
Monday night..West winds to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 25 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 7 to 11 feet subsiding to 5 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 14 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. A chance of rain showers Tuesday night. Waves 4 to 7 feet building to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Thursday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
the water temperature off rochester is 45 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBGM 100813 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 313 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

SYNOPSIS
Warm temperatures will continue today. A strong storm will bring steady rain, heavy at times, this morning that continues into tonight. Rain then transitions to snow tonight, ending Monday as a deepening low pressure system moves up the east coast.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Some elevated instability has already moved into portions of the Finger Lakes and Southern Tier, so have added some thunder to the forecast heading into the overnight hours for these areas.

915 PM Update...

No major changes to the near-term update. Blended current observations into the forecast. Near-term forecast remains on track.

640 PM Update...

No major changes for the near-term update. Rain will push in from the west through the night tonight, and cover the forecast area by morning. Near-term forecast remains on track through Sunday night.

330 PM Update

Quiet weather continues this evening with mild temperatures and increasing clouds. Clouds continue to overspread the area into the overnight hours as southerly winds also increase out ahead of the incoming storm system. Expect south winds 15 to 30 mph with locally higher gusts during the predawn hours of Sunday; especially over the hilltops. These clouds and southerly winds will keep it warm tonight, with lows in the 40s to near 50 for most of the area.

Our attention then turns to a significant storm system that will bring a multitude of impacts to the area. Rain develops and overspreads the entire forecast area Sunday morning. The rain could be heavy at times, and a rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out over NE PA and the Catskills. The heaviest rainfall rates are again expected from about Binghamton south and east into NE PA/Catskills. The latest guidance has trended eastward with the higher rainfall and QPF amounts with this system, and its even possible the Finger Lakes see a break from the steady rain Sunday afternoon and early evening as the initial area of rain drifts east. Rainfall totals through about 7 PM Sunday look to range from only a quarter inch over the Finger Lakes, with around 1 inch over NE PA and the Catskills. These higher end totals may begin to cause some minor, localized hydro issue (such as ponding of water in low lying areas, and increased runoff) as we head into the evening hours. Therefore, the flood watch remains in effect for east-central NY down across most of NE PA (except Bradford county)...until 1 PM Monday. Several of the headwater and mainstem river points are forecast to reach action stage, with the West Branch Delaware at Walton still forecast to reach minor flood stage. If rainfall amounts end up higher than currently forecast additional locations could have more issues...so definitely something to monitor closely.

Heading into Sunday evening, the cold front is now progged to move in faster, with winds shifting to the northwest. The changeover from rain to wet snow has trended slightly faster with this update. It is now looking to changeover between about 8 to 11 PM west of I-81...higher elevations first. Then the changeover is forecast to occur between 9pm to 12am east of I-81...again higher elevations first. The last places to changeover, not until the predawn hours will be the Wyoming Valley, Southern Sullivan county and along the Delaware river.

The latest guidance has shifted a bit east with the higher snowfall potential. The steadiest snow looks to be along and east of I-81 during the overnight hours Sunday through daybreak Monday, or mid/late morning over the Catskills as a 1000mb surface low near NYC tracks northeast to near Boston and deepens to around 995mb. Went below the NBM guidance for temperatures as strong cold air advection from the west (-7C at 850mb) and the strengthening low should allow for more efficient cooling.
Therefore, expecting temperatures to fall into the low to mid-30s by midnight, then upper 20s to lower 30s before daybreak. The initial heavy wet snow, with low SLRs of 4-8:1 will quickly increase, to 8-12:1 before daybreak, with the snow becoming more powdery and much more efficiently accumulating.
SLRs remain high between 10-15:1 during the day on Monday with colder air aloft moving in. Again, went below NBM for temperatures on Monday, as I think we'll struggle to get above freezing in most locations, then temperatures will begin to fall by late afternoon.

Based on both the latest deterministic and ensemble guidance, the highest potential to see 4-8"+ of wet snowfall will be from Oneida county south into Madison, Otsego, Delaware and Chenango county. The NBM and WPC ensembles are showing greater than 50% chance for exceeding warning criteria in these areas...especially over the higher elevations. Therefore, decided to issue a Winter Storm Watch for these zones...starting Sunday evening through Monday afternoon...except through Monday evening for Madison and Oneida counties, where some lake effect snow bands and blowing snow will linger longer. The exact track and strength of the coastal low remain uncertain at this time, and that will have large implications on how much snowfall and where. These above counties are where the confidence was highest for an impactful snowfall event. Will be closely monitoring the latest trends in the guidance tonight to see if any additional winter headlines may be needed.

On Monday, the coastal low will be rapidly deepening across eastern New England...with much colder air aloft and at the surface advecting into our region on the back side of the low, under the mid/upper level trough. The steady snow shield looks to lift north and east out of the Catskills and Mohawk Valley by mid to late morning, but bands of lake effect snow showers will develop behind this on a 300-310 degree flow off of Lake Ontario and the Finger Lakes. The other story on Monday will be strong, gusty northwest winds up to 40 mph. For the higher elevations these winds, combined with fresh snow and temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s will likely produce areas of blowing and drifting snow. Otherwise, for the southern tier of NY and northeast PA it should be mainly dry by late Monday morning and afternoon with just isolated snow showers around. It will still be windy and cold areawide, with wind chills in the upper 10s to 20s during the day.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
3 AM FORECAST...

Lake effect snow showers will continue across areas north of the Southern Tier Monday night. High pressure centered well south of the region will continue the westerly flow across Lakes Erie and Ontario as the main storm system lifts to the NE. 850mb temps between -11 to -12C will provide enough of a air/water temp difference to generate snow showers from the Finger Lakes to Oneida county. Monday evening a weak, diffuse band of snow should set up across northern Onondaga, northern Madison and Oneida counties, dropping an additional 1 to 3 inches of snow. Less than an inch of snow is expected further south to the PA border. Western Steuben could get half an inch of snow off of Lake Erie. Late Monday night the winds shift to the southwest lifting the lake effect into only Oneida County, then out by sunrise.

Warm air advection will set up on Tuesday with a southwest flow.
High temperatures will rise into the upper 30s and lower 40s.
This will also bring in drier air.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
3 AM FORECAST...

This period will start unsettled and cool but then become dry and warmer late in the week.

Tuesday night a cold front drops southeast into NY with limited moisture. Some mixed showers will be possible in the Finger Lakes to Oneida County. Another cold front drops southeast Wednesday with air cold enough for lake moisture to help the snow showers. The showers will reach into the Susquehanna Region and Catskills during the afternoon. Some of these snow showers could be briefly heavy. High temperatures will be in the 30s.

Lake effect snow continues Wednesday night in CNY before lifting out late at night. Lows will be from the mid teens to the lower 20s.

The cold air remains over the area Thursday as high pressure moves into the Ohio Valley. The air mass moderates so Friday highs will be in the 40s with continued dry weather. Saturday should remain dry but clouds will keep highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s.

AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
1250 PM Update...

VFR conditions will continue until the early morning hours Sunday when a storm system will begin impacting the region.
Scattered showers and MVFR ceilings will arrive between 09Z and 12Z, with conditions deteriorating to IFR by mid-morning. BGM will have the highest probability of seeing LIFR conditions at times as steady moderate rain moves into the area. The heaviest rainfall will be east of most terminals, and given prevailing winds, this should keep ELM mainly in the Fuel Alt/MVFR range for ceilings and visibility.

A strong low level jet tonight will bring 35-45kts of LLWS up to FL020 across the region starting this evening and lasting until sunrise.

Outlook...

Late Sunday night...IFR or lower. Rain changing to snow. Strong gusty winds.

Monday...Restrictions likely with lingering snow showers and strong gusty NW winds.

Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR-MVFR depending on lake effect showers.

Thursday...Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Flood Watch from 1 PM EST this afternoon through Monday afternoon for PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Monday evening for NYZ009-036-037.
Flood Watch from 1 PM EST this afternoon through Monday afternoon for NYZ045-046-056-057-062.
Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Monday afternoon for NYZ045-046-057.

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Binghamton, NY,