Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Waterloo, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
220 AM Update...

A few showers remain across the northern Catskills and NEPA, and should dissipate in the next couple of hours.

Today will be dry as ridging builds into the area. Winds are progged to pick up as isobars stack between the departing trough and building ridge. Gusts up to 20kts will be possible from mid-morning into the late afternoon hours. Clouds will also clear as the day progresses, with mostly sunny skies expected by early afternoon. The strong dose of sun will allow temperatures will rise into the 60s across NY with low 70s in NEPA.

The surface high is expected to move overhead Tuesday night, bringing light winds and mostly clear skies to the area. This will allow radiational cooling to drop temps into the mid 30s across much of the region. Sheltered valleys could see temps fall below freezing while the Wyoming Valley will stay in the low 40s.

Wednesday will be an amazing spring day. High pressure brings mostly clear skies and temperatures climbing into the mid 60s to low 70s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
300 PM Update...

A pretty quiet stretch of weather is expected during this period. High pressure will be moving in from the west and settling in overhead by Wednesday evening. A good deal of sunshine is expected for Wednesday along with light winds, although with 850mb winds out of the northwest and temperatures on average between 2 and 4 degrees Celsius, there may be some scattered lake clouds that reach the northwestern fringe of the CWA With the northwesterly flow, there will be a fairly large temperature spread across the area Wednesday afternoon with highs in the upper 50s and low 60s around and north of the I-90 corridor, the Finger Lakes and Catskills reach the low to mid 60s and the Southern Tier into NE PA ranges from the mid 60s to the lower 70s.

Skies will be mostly clear Wednesday night and winds will remain light. Depending on how quickly the surface high starts to shift to the east during the overnight hours and the flow begins to turn more southerly, this could be a decent radiational cooling night and may wind up slightly below guidance. Low temperatures mainly range from the upper 30s to the mid 40s with mid 30s closer to the Tug Hill.

Upper level ridging builds in Thursday and with the surface high off to the east enhancing the southwesterly flow, it will be a warm day and the NBM75th percentile was blended into the forecast to reflect this. Highs Thursday are expected to be in the low to mid 70s with some valley locations making a run at the upper 70s to near 80 degrees, especially in NE PA.

A weak shortwave is expected to pass by to the north Thursday night, which may bring in some clouds over northern parts of our area late Thursday and into Thursday night and perhaps a passing shower near the Tug Hill, so this will be something to keep an eye on as some of the latest guidance has trended a little farther south with this feature. It will be relatively mild Thursday night with low from the mid 40s to lower 50s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
300 PM Update...

The chance for showers and perhaps some rumbles of thunder returns for the end of the week as a shortwave trough and surface low and associated cold front begin to approach from the west. There remains uncertainty in the track and timing of the low and cold frontal passage, but showers are possible starting as early as Friday afternoon but the better chance looks to be Friday night into Saturday. High pressure seems to build back in on Sunday for a quieter second half to the weekend.

High temperatures are expected to climb back into the low and mid 70s on Friday, then lower a bit Saturday and Sunday as the rain showers and cold front move through with temperatures mainly in the upper 50s to the mid 60s. Temperatures look to rebound again early next week as upper level ridging returns.

AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Showers have started to dissipate and are not expected to impact NY terminals tonight. A few stray showers may move through AVP in a couple of hours but confidence is low that they will hold on. MVFR ceilings are expected at SYR and RME after 07z as winds shift to westerly behind a weak cold front, lasting into daybreak. ELM and BGM will have some tempo MVFR ceilings over the next couple of hours after rain showers moved through, but should become VFR before daybreak. AVP will hold onto MVFR/Fuel Alt ceilings as WSW winds push moisture up the valley into the terminal. VFR conditions should occur at all 3 locations by mid- morning.

High pressure builds in and brings VFR conditions through the rest of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Tuesday afternoon... VFR, Westerly wind gusts near 20 knots at times.

Tuesday night through Thursday night...Mainly VFR.

Friday through Saturday... Showers with possible restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.