Wednesday, November25, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Town Line, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 4:45PM Wednesday November 25, 2020 6:34 AM EST (11:34 UTC) Moonrise 2:50PMMoonset 2:27AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 334 Am Est Wed Nov 25 2020
Today..South winds 5 to 15 knots. Rain developing late.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Rain.
Thursday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Rain in the morning, then scattered showers with patchy drizzle in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Cloudy.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. Mostly cloudy.
Saturday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Mostly cloudy, then clearing.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. A chance of rain showers Sunday night. The water temperature off buffalo is 46 degrees.
LEZ020 Expires:202011251630;;363834 FZUS51 KBUF 250834 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 334 AM EST Wed Nov 25 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ020-251630-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Town Line, NY
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location: 42.86, -78.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 251132 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 632 AM EST Wed Nov 25 2020

SYNOPSIS. A warm front will produce some light snow mixed with rain across the Saint Lawrence Valley early this morning, with dry weather to start the day for the rest of the area. Low pressure will then move across the region late today through Thanksgiving Day with periods of light rain and drizzle. Temperatures will be above normal through next weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/. Radar imagery showing light precipitation along and ahead of a warm front continuing to move north early this morning, now limited to the Saint Lawrence Valley. The low levels are dry beneath the forcing aloft, so there is less precipitation reaching the ground than may appear in radar imagery. Where it is reaching the ground it is falling mostly as light snow, with some rain mixed in at the southern edge of the precipitation shield. This will end by mid morning as the warm front continues to move northeast. Snow accumulation will be an inch or less for the Saint Lawrence Valley early this morning, and what does stick will quickly melt later this morning as temperatures warm.

Following the early morning warm front, it will be dry through early afternoon across Western NY, and for the rest of the day east of Lake Ontario. Low pressure and an associated sharp mid level trough will reach Indiana by early this evening. Increasing DPVA and upper level jet dynamics will spread into the eastern Great Lakes late today ahead of the trough, with a 40 knot southwesterly low level jet enhancing moisture transport and supporting a renewed round of warm advection and isentropic upglide. This will support a period of widespread rain developing in Western NY later this afternoon, spreading into the eastern Lake Ontario region this evening.

Rain will continue this evening areawide. Model guidance then suggests a break in widespread precipitation will move into Western NY after midnight, and Central NY by late tonight in a gap between periods of synoptic scale forcing. It may not become completely dry in this break, but amount and coverage of rain will decrease notably.

The surface low will cross the eastern Great Lakes from west to east on Thanksgiving Day, decaying with time. While the surface low weakens substantially, the mid level trough will remain well defined and provide another period of increased large scale ascent Thanksgiving morning in Western NY, and late morning through early to mid afternoon east of Lake Ontario. This should support another round of more widespread light rain. Following this period of rain, expect a general west to east decrease in rain coverage during the afternoon. That said, abundant low level moisture left behind by the weakening surface low may support drizzle and plenty of low clouds during the afternoon.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. Mid-level ridge builds into the eastern Great Lakes in the wake of the departed low pressure system Thursday night. BUFKIT profile soundings continue to advertise a wealth of low level moisture trapped below a strengthening subsidence inversion and the potential of some patchy drizzle overnight. Otherwise, most locations should see a slow but gradual drying trend as we head into Friday. Although clearing skies isn't likely to occur with the low level moisture hanging around across the region.

Friday, any lingering drizzle in the morning should end by early afternoon with mostly cloudy skies the remainder of the day. Friday night, upstream shortwave and weak sfc cold front will bring a chance of a few light showers as we head into Saturday. There may even be some wet snow flakes that mix in across the higher terrain, although no accumulation anticipated at this point. Another shortwave and front then races through early Saturday which again could bring an additional rain or snow shower, mainly to the North Country. After that, weak sfc high passing by to our south should bring about a brief period of dry weather Saturday night and all of Sunday before the next system impacts the region early next week.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. There is the potential that a large synoptic storm system could bring a period of rainfall . gusty winds and trailing lake effect snow However for this to happen a coupled jet must occur. and the two main jet stream features are still a long ways out.

A surface low will develop Sunday within an inverted surface trough lying along the eastern coastline of Mexico and Texas. The desert Southwest upper level low will then deepen this surface low, and within the dynamic phased jet, this surface low will track northeastward. Here is where the models split and become more uncertain . as the surface low could track and linger to our west through this period allowing for precipitation to fall mainly as rain (12Z ECMWF) or track a bit farther eastward, backing westward to our region . but allowing for some cold air intrusion that could allow for rain Monday to change to snow (lake effect) later Tuesday (12Z GFS/Canadian).

Given how far out these features are any slight speed change to the shortwaves within the jetstreak could have big implications on early next week's weather. There is also a lot of uncertainty as to how much cold air eventually filters in behind the synoptic storm system, with the 00Z deterministic models even now right on the threshold for rain/snow by Wednesday with the 850 hPa temperatures around -5 to -8C.

Rain ahead of these upstream shortwaves will likely arrive late Sunday night and into Monday . and will use low likely PoPs for this . that even without a phasing jet . still has high probability of occuring. Thereafter will just use chance Pops with a mix of rain and snow Tuesday due to a lot of uncertainty among the models.

AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. A warm front will continue to move quickly northeast across the area through early this morning with light precipitation and MVFR/IFR VSBY across the Saint Lawrence Valley ending by mid morning. Most of this will be in the form of light snow, although the southern edge of precipitation will mix with rain as warmer air moves into the region. Otherwise VFR will prevail with an abundance of mid/high clouds across the region.

VFR and mainly dry weather will then prevail through early afternoon today. Low pressure will then approach from the west later this afternoon through tonight. Widespread rain will develop across Western NY by mid afternoon, reaching the eastern Lake Ontario region this evening. VSBY will deteriorate to MVFR as the low levels saturate, and CIGS will drop to MVFR at lower elevations and IFR for higher terrain by this evening.

Outlook .

Thursday . MVFR/IFR. Rain showers and drizzle. Friday . MVFR/IFR CIGS and a chance of drizzle. Saturday . MVFR/VFR in cloud cover and possibly a shower. Sunday . VFR.

MARINE. High pressure will continue to drift off the New England coast today with a warm front moving quickly northeast across Lake Ontario this morning.. This will allow winds to become southerly and increase through early this afternoon. This will mostly direct higher waves into Canadian waters, however this will build waves across the northeast corner of Lake Ontario where a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect. South to southeast winds will decrease later this afternoon and evening, bringing an end to Small Craft Advisory conditions.

Weakening low pressure will cross the eastern Great Lakes Thursday. Winds will become southwest and increase on Lake Erie in the afternoon behind the low. This will produce very choppy conditions at a minimum, and possibly a period of marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LOZ045.



SYNOPSIS . Hitchcock NEAR TERM . Hitchcock SHORT TERM . AR LONG TERM . AR/Thomas AVIATION . Hitchcock MARINE . Hitchcock


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 15 mi47 min ESE 5.1 G 6 42°F 47°F1017.9 hPa13°F
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 26 mi47 min 44°F 1017.4 hPa
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 27 mi47 min 40°F 1017.7 hPa
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 34 mi35 min SE 4.1 G 5.1 37°F 1018.6 hPa (-2.1)
45142 - Port Colborne 37 mi95 min S 16 G 18 47°F 49°F2 ft1017.1 hPa (-1.6)
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 47 mi35 min SSE 15 G 20 44°F 1016.6 hPa (-1.6)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport, NY9 mi41 minSE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy41°F30°F67%1018.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBUF

Wind History from BUF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4NW5N7N3NE65CalmNE3NE5NE5NE5NE7E7E7E10E11SE6E5SE8NE4E6E6E6SE8
1 day agoW7W5W8W7W7W12W9W11W11W11
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W11W10W12W9W11W10W6W3SW6SW6W4W3
2 days agoE7E7E8E10NE9NE11E11NE9
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.