Friday, December6, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Elma Center, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:29AMSunset 4:42PM Friday December 6, 2019 11:06 AM EST (16:06 UTC) Moonrise 2:06PMMoonset 1:33AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 603 Am Est Fri Dec 6 2019
Today..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Snow and rain this morning through midday, then scattered snow showers late.
Tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Scattered snow showers in the evening.
Saturday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Partly Sunny.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Partly to mostly cloudy.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Rain showers likely Sunday night.
Monday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers.
Tuesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Rain showers likely with a chance of snow showers during the day, then snow showers likely Tuesday night. The water temperature off buffalo is 43 degrees.
LEZ020 Expires:201912061630;;934424 FZUS51 KBUF 061103 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 603 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ020-061630-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elma Center, NY
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location: 42.86, -78.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 061511 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1011 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

SYNOPSIS. A small area of low pressure will cross the area today and produce an area of snow with a few inches of accumulation, mainly north of the Thruway. Warmer temperatures may allow for some rain to mix in briefly across Western NY and the western Finger Lakes, keeping any snow accumulations to a minimum. Following this system, lake effect snow showers will develop southeast of the lakes late this afternoon through tonight with some additional accumulation, especially southeast of Lake Ontario. High pressure will then bring a return to dry weather Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. A mix of rain and snow continues to fall across Western NY this morning with near or above freezing surface temperatures. All snow is falling further to the east with less warm air aloft. Cold air advection is nearing the region which will scour out the warm air, resulting in any rain changing over to snow this afternoon. Accumulations, as per the earlier morning forecast, are generally expected to be north of the Thruway and east toward the Eastern Lake Ontario region, but with minimal impacts due to slightly above freezing road temperatures and (infrared) isolation through the cloud deck. This is all due to a small, compact clipper low that is moving across the eastern Great Lakes.

Precipitation with the clipper system will rapidly exit from west to east during the early to mid afternoon. Cold advection will increase behind the system, and set the stage for some limited northwest flow lake effect snow. Off Lake Erie, the lake snow will peak in coverage during the early evening as equilibrium levels briefly rise to around 10K feet. Northwest flow will focus most of the snow showers into the Chautauqua Ridge, with an inch or so of accumulation in persistent bands. This will be short lived, with snow showers ending overnight as high pressure and associated lowering inversion heights build over Lake Erie.

Lake Ontario will have a little more time to work with, as favorable conditions last through early Saturday morning. Lake induced equilibrium levels briefly rise to around 10K feet this evening, and stay above 8K feet through 12Z Saturday. Latest mesoscale guidance suggests a Georgian Bay connection will develop for several hours later tonight, yielding the best band organization southeast of Lake Ontario from roughly midnight through 6AM Saturday. WNW flow direction will favor northern/eastern Wayne, northern Cayuga, and southern Oswego counties. This may produce another 2-4 inches of accumulation tonight. Slightly higher advisory level amounts cannot be ruled out if the banding becomes nearly stationary for long enough, but confidence is not high enough to raise the advisory at this time.

Outside of these two main lake effect areas, a few flurries and scattered snow showers will likely occur later this afternoon through the first half of tonight courtesy of Lake Huron, but any accumulations will be localized and minor.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. Cold northwest flow continues into Saturday. This will maintain lake effect snow showers primarily focused southeast of Lake Ontario. Inversion heights will only be around 4-5kft, with some semblance of shallow moisture, so additional snowfall should be limited to no more than an inch or so. Upstream high pressure and drier air will start to arrive during the day which will shallow out the moisture further with the low level flow turning more anticyclonic. Therefore, would expect any overlake convection to weaken/wane by afternoon. Outside of the Lake Ontario lake effect snow the remainder of the area will be dry. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 20s east of Lake Ontario and in the upper 20s to near 30 for all other areas.

Dry and chilly conditions will continue through Saturday night as the area of high pressure slides east through the night. Temperatures will be in the teens east of Lake Ontario, and in the upper teens to mid 20s for the higher terrain to the lake plains.

The area of high pressure tracks to the east Sunday as a trough approaches from the west. Increasing southerly flow between the two systems will send a surge of warmer air into the region. After a cold start to the day, temperatures will rebound into the upper 30s to mid 40s across the region. High pressure off to our southeast will continue to influence our weather Sunday keeping the day dry with showers associated with the approaching trough holding off until Sunday night. Tightening graident across the area will bring increasing winds with most areas seeing gusts of 25 to 35 mph with favored downslope areas possibly exceeding 40 mph at times.

Sunday night, a frontal boundary and trough will slowly track toward the area. As the boundary tracks east, weak waves of low pressure will track northeast, increasing our chances for precipitation. Chance POPs will cover far WNY by the late evening, and continue to increase from west to east through the night. Increased forcing and increasing moisture will cause precipitation to track farther east into the area, and most locations will have likely POPs by daybreak on Monday. As precipitation starts, it should be mostly in the form of rain, but some higher spots where the temperatures remain cooler could see some mixing with or change to snow. Lows Sunday night will be in the low to mid 30s across the higher terrain, and in the upper 30s to near 40 for the lower elevations.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. . SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT CONTINUES TO LOOK FAVORABLE BY MID WEEK .

Next trough will push from the northern Plains into the Midwest Monday. The initial low over Ontario will lay out a front that will start to push south toward New York State during the day Monday. Meanwhile, a strong southern stream jet working through the central Plains will result in the development of a low that will then strengthen while lifting northeast along the front through lower Michigan into southern Ontario by Monday evening. Warmth of the resident airmass and track of the low northwest of the area will result in a rain event across western and north central New York Monday and Monday night. Temperatures on Monday will be mild for December standards with most highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s, with lower to mid 40s across the higher terrain.

An arctic front will pass quickly through the area Tuesday allowing cold air to surge into the region. Ongoing rain showers Tuesday morning will transition over to snow showers through the afternoon as the cold air deepens.

Arctic air will continue to pour into the region Tuesday night through Wednesday night with 850 mb temperatures dropping to near minus 20C. This will allow for a strong lake response off both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario during this time period. As is the usually the case this far in advance, there remains some uncertainty with respect to exact location of the lake snows, but current lower resolution models suggesting a general west or west-southwest flow will dominate for much of the time period before veering northwest near the end of the event.

It continues to look like all parameters are in place from extreme over-lake instability, available moisture and position of upper level features for significant lake snows downwind of both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario during the Tuesday night through at least the Wednesday night time frame.

AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. A small clipper system will move through the area today. This will support an area of snow along and north of its track, with the steadiest snow falling over Lake Ontario and areas just south of the lake, as well as the eastern Lake Ontario region. Expect a 4-6 hour period of IFR VSBY and MVFR CIGS within this area of snow through early afternoon. Along and south of the low track, the snow will be more intermittent and nature, and may even mix with some rain at KBUF, KIAG, and KJHW briefly through midday as surface temperatures warm above freezing. Expect mainly MVFR VSBY/CIGS in this area, with a brief period of IFR in snow showers as a cold front crosses during the late morning and early afternoon.

The widespread snow for northern areas will taper off this afternoon as the small system moves east of the area. This will be replaced by northwest flow lake effect snow showers southeast of the lakes. This will produce areas of IFR VSBY southeast of Lake Erie this evening, including KJHW at times. This will taper off overnight as high pressure builds over Lake Erie. Areas of IFR VSBY will also develop southeast of Lake Ontario tonight in lake effect snow showers, mainly from just east of KROC to near KFZY. CIGS will generally be MVFR late this afternoon through tonight, with some local IFR possible for higher terrain and in a few of the more organized bands of lake effect snow showers.

Outlook . Saturday . Local MVFR/IFR in lake effect snow showers southeast of Lake Ontario early, otherwise VFR. Sunday . VFR. Monday . Areas of MVFR in rain showers. Tuesday . MVFR with rain showers ending from west to east. Snow showers possible late.

MARINE. A small clipper low will move across the eastern Great Lakes through midday. A brief period of moderate southwest winds will develop on Lake Erie as the low moves just north of the lake, producing Small Craft Advisory conditions, which will linger into this evening. Lake Ontario will initially not be impacted by these winds today, but WNW winds will increase tonight in the wake of the clipper. This will produce a brief period of Small Craft Advisory conditions tonight through Saturday. Winds and waves will diminish later Saturday as high pressure builds into the eastern Great Lakes.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Saturday for LOZ043-044. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Saturday for LOZ042.



SYNOPSIS . Hitchcock NEAR TERM . Hitchcock SHORT TERM . SW/TMA LONG TERM . TMA AVIATION . Hitchcock MARINE . Hitchcock


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 13 mi55 min W 18 G 24 41°F 38°F1011.4 hPa29°F
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 25 mi55 min 37°F 1011.8 hPa
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 25 mi55 min 43°F 1010.9 hPa
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 33 mi67 min ENE 8.9 G 11 33°F 1013.2 hPa (-1.0)
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 46 mi67 min SW 21 G 25 42°F 1011.3 hPa (-0.8)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport, NY7 mi73 minSW 56.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist36°F33°F89%1011.6 hPa
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY24 mi74 minW 62.50 miLight Rain Fog/Mist34°F32°F92%1012.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBUF

Wind History from BUF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW13--NW11
G18
W10W9W10W10W8W9W9W8W8SW4W3S3E5SE6S8S7S8S4S6SW5W11
1 day agoSW7SW8SW7W5W12SW10W9W10W10W10W10W9W14
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W11W9W11W12--W16W12W13
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2 days agoW13SW11W9W9W10W7W6W7W6SW12SW12S13SW11S7S7SW8S8CalmSW11SW7W5S8SW10W12

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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