Elma Center, NY Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Elma Center, NY

April 17, 2024 6:28 PM EDT (22:28 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:26 AM   Sunset 8:01 PM
Moonrise 12:51 PM   Moonset 3:08 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts
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LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 433 Am Edt Wed Apr 17 2024

Today - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Showers through early afternoon, then showers with a chance of Thunderstorms late.

Tonight - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms.

Thursday - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly Sunny.

Thursday night - Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. A chance of showers overnight.

Friday - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. Showers during the day, then a chance of showers Friday night.

Saturday - West winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers.

Sunday - West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Becoming mainly clear.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off buffalo is 42 degrees.

LEZ005
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elma Center, NY
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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 172130 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 530 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front will track across the region tonight with more showers and a few gusty thunderstorms, especially across western New York this evening. High pressure will move into the region Thursday and Thursday night. A secondary cold front will bring scattered showers Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
At 5 p.m. a weakening band of showers is moving into the eastern Lake Ontario region. However, the area of greater concern is a line of strong showers and thunderstorms which is moving into eastern Ohio. The strongest storms will pass by to our south, however there is a risk these will clip the far Western Southern Tier this evening. Storms will weaken this evening as they encounter a more stable airmass, but still will have the potential to produce localized heavy rainfall across Western NY. There is a Marginal risk of Severe Weather across portions of Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties with the main concerns being strong winds and large hail, mainly 7 to 9 p.m. Locally heavy rainfall could last through midnight, extending to the Genesee Valley. Added matching wording to the latest update, and also a mention of fog off Lake Erie following the cold frontal passage.

Surface boundary will finish pushing through the eastern half of the area Thursday. A few lingering showers may remain through late morning, before ridging makes its way into western New York bringing improving conditions for the afternoon. Deeper moisture ahead of the boundary will keep steadier showers going east of Lake Ontario through the morning hours, before tapering off to more in the way of scattered activity behind the boundary. Temperatures will run mainly in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
A weakening mid-level ridge across the Eastern Seaboard Thursday night will give way to broad troughing overhead of the Great Lakes by Friday where it will remain overhead into the weekend. Within this troughing pattern a few shortwave troughs will round its base creating on and off active weather.

Thursday night, an occluded front sprawled across the eastern Lake Ontario region will continue to exit east, supporting lingering light rain showers. In the wake of the frontal passage, a transient ridge will slide east across the region providing a short period of dry weather.

A shortwave will begin to round the base of the trough Friday and Friday night, supporting a the low pressure system over northern Ontario to strengthen and gradually move into central Quebec by Friday night. This will introduce an associated strong cold front to sweep across the region from west to east, supporting steady rain to fall. Rainfall amounts will average between a tenth to a quarter of an inch. By Friday evening, rain showers will be exiting the North Country, while a dry air mass fills with the approaching surface ridge.

The aforementioned potent shortwave will then round the base of mid- level trough and cross the area Saturday. This will support a secondary cold front to pass across the region starting Saturday morning with an uptick in rain shower activity Saturday afternoon.
Broad surface high pressure over the Central Plains will begin to work its way east Saturday night.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
High pressure centered over the Plains States at the start of this period will ridge eastward across our area through Monday...then will drift east across New England Monday night. This will help to keep any passing weak northern stream systems confined to Ontario and Quebec...thereby resulting in fair dry weather for our region.
With broad/flat troughing aloft on Sunday giving way to more of a zonal flow during Monday...initially below-normal highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s Sunday will be followed by a return to near-normal readings in the mid 50s to lower 60s on Monday.

While the medium range guidance packages continue to differ in some of the details...there remains general agreement that a low- amplitude mid-level trough and its associated surface reflection will push east and across our region between Tuesday and Wednesday.
This system will bring our next general chance of showers...with slightly above normal temps (upper 50s-mid 60s) out ahead of it on Tuesday giving way to slightly below normal readings (generally low- mid 50s) following its passage on Wednesday.

AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR flight conditions at 21Z with showers across the Eastern Lake Ontario region on the light side.

Another round of showers with a chance of thunderstorms will enter western NY this evening. Thunderstorms and heavy showers may result in IFR or lower at KIAG, KBUF, and KJHW through this evening.
Confidence is low for coverage of convection, however best chance will be between (23z-03z). Showers will move east overnight and flight conditions will remain MVFR with a chance of IFR after 06z across a majority of the forecast area. Some fog is possible northeast of Lake Erie following the frontal passage.

Outlook...

Wednesday night and Thursday...MVFR/VFR with showers likely.
Friday and Saturday...MVFR/VFR with a chance of showers.
Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR.

MARINE
Small Craft conditions will remain through early tonight on the western end of Lake Ontario of an approaching warm front. A cold front will then cross the lakes tonight, with the potential for strong thunderstorms and special marine warnings on Lake Erie this evening. A southwest-west flow will develop by Friday into Saturday and could approach 20 knots with a period of small craft conditions possible on both lakes at some period during this period. High pressure building into the lower Great Lakes will bring weakening winds Sunday and Monday.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for LOZ042-043.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 13 mi59 min E 8.9G14 55°F 49°F29.7550°F
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 25 mi59 min 52°F 29.80
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 25 mi59 min 53°F 29.73
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 33 mi89 min E 16G20 47°F 29.86
YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY 36 mi89 min E 6G16 50°F 29.80
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 46 mi89 min S 1.9G2.9 73°F 29.74


Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KBUF BUFFALO NIAGARA INTL,NY 7 sm34 minENE 1210 smMostly Cloudy54°F48°F82%29.80
KIAG NIAGARA FALLS INTL,NY 24 sm35 minE 119 smOvercast Lt Rain 52°F46°F82%29.80
Link to 5 minute data for KBUF


Wind History from BUF
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Tide / Current for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of north east   
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Buffalo, NY,



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