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LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 353 Am Est Mon Dec 11 2023
Today..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of rain showers early.
Tonight..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. Snow showers likely overnight.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Partly to mostly Sunny.
Tuesday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy.
Wednesday..West winds 5 to 15 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Mainly clear.
Friday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west and diminishing to around 10 knots. Partly cloudy, then becoming mostly cloudy.
the water temperature off buffalo is 44 degrees.

LEZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 112102 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 402 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

SYNOPSIS
Narrow bands of light lake effect snow will continue east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario this evening. Light accumulating snow will mainly stay confined to the higher terrain. Lake effect bands will move north and weaken tonight. A cold front will approach the region Tuesday and bring breezy conditions especially northeast of the Lakes. Lake effect snow will develop Tuesday night through Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Regional radar shows multiple narrow bands of lake effect rain and snow across western NY. Widespread rain and snow showers continue east of Lake Ontario this evening. Accumulating snow has been mainly confined to the higher terrain today.

A mid-level trough axis is centered across the forecast area this evening. Deep ascent and moisture ahead of the trough and cold, northwest flow over the relatively warm lakes has led synoptic and lake effect showers across the region today. Better moisture and closer vicinity to the exiting storm system has allowed for more synoptic, widespread showers east of Lake Ontario. Further south, multi-band lake effect will continue to target Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties through the afternoon.
Periods of moderate snow are possible across the higher terrain east of both Lakes. At lower elevations, a mix of rain and snow will soon end as boundary layer temperatures cool. While snow will be the main ptype, showers will be winding down into evening. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for the eastern Lake Ontario region, with emphasis on the Tug Hill where it is colder. An additional 1 to 3 inches remain possible through the afternoon. Accumulations of up to 2 inches are possible across the higher terrain southeast of Lake Erie.

The mid-level trough will move east of the forecast area and moisture will become depleted across the region. A strong surface high well to the southwest will approach the region overnight. This will cause snow showers to diminish and move north. There is a short period when lake effect snow showers may redevelop when the flow becomes southwest late tonight. This would bring a period of light snow into the City of Buffalo and Northtowns and the City of Watertown. Forecast soundings show EQL levels around 3-4k feet and barely reaching -10C during this time. Light snow is possible and will end by the Tuesday morning commute. A dusting is possible.
Colder tonight with temperatures in the mid to upper 20s.

Main story for Tuesday with be the gusty winds, especially northeast of the Lakes. A cold front over the Central Great Lakes Tuesday morning will approach the region during the day. The building area of high pressure will move east and the pressure gradient will tighten over the region. Initially, the gradient wind will result in southwest winds 15 to 25 mph and gusts up to 35 mph Tuesday morning.
Westerly flow aloft will then become aligned with the southwest flow at the surface and a 50-55kt low level jet at 850mb will move across the region. A prefrontal trough will move through western NY between 10am-2pm and the combination of clearing skies, pressure rises, and funneling up the Lake Erie shoreline will allow gusts up to 50kts to mix to the surface northeast of the Lakes. A Wind Advisory is in effect for Niagara, Orleans, northern Erie, and Genesee counties Tuesday. Less favorable conditions will limit gusts further sough and east, however it will still be breezy from the Genesee Valley to the western Finger Lakes region with gusts up to 40 mph. There will be a slight delay in the prefrontal trough east of Lake Ontario, but once it gets there wind gusts up to 45 mph are possible across the Saint Lawrence River/northern Jefferson county. Confidence is lower for gusts reaching 50 mph and therefore no Advisory is in effect.
Lower gusts expected across Oswego and Lewis counties.

Last but not least, the main cold front will move into the region late Tuesday afternoon. There could be weak instability ahead of the front with cold air advection immediately behind it. A rain and snow mix and gusty winds are possible northeast of the Lakes late Tuesday afternoon. High temperatures will rise into the upper 30s to low 40s Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
...Brief heavy lake effect event for the Tug Hill later Tuesday night into Wednesday...

On Tuesday night, attention is on potential for heavy lake effect snow east of Lake Ontario. A short but favorable window for lake effect snow occurs later Tuesday night through at least Wednesday morning especially on the central and southern Tug Hill. A mid-level trough will dig across New England through the time frame, providing deeper moisture and dropping 850mb temps to -13C across Lake Ontario. West-southwest flow gradually shift to the northwest, with the westerly winds during this transition having the best chance to persist and produce heavy snow due to the long fetch and the potential for a Georgian Bay connection. Canadian Regional remains most aggressive with this, but likely has the best handle on band location given the steering wind that starts out 270 and slowly veers to 280/290 on Wednesday. Though other high res model guidance still has less QPF, even a toned down version of the RGEM supports 12 hr snowfall amounts pushing above the warning threshold of 7 inches, boosted by higher SLRs nearing 20:1. Though the heaviest snow will occur on the Tug Hill, several inches of snow could also impact I-81 from Parish northward to the Oswego/Jefferson County line. The bigger impact footprint along with increasing support from NBM probability data (which really wasn't showing much of a signal at all yesterday) provided enough evidence to go ahead and issue a watch for the heavy lake effect potential. Gusty westerly winds over 25 mph could lead to some blowing snow in open areas too, which only adds to the impact.

Quite a different story east of Lake Erie where lack of an upstream connection and farther proximity to the trough and deeper moisture in the DGZ will limit accumulations. Outside of this, there will be scattered snow showers Tuesday night/Wednesday, but little if any accumulation outside of the lake effect areas. Wednesday will be a fairly blustery day with highs in the lower 30s and winds gusting to 30 mph.

Continue to like idea of at least moderate intensity NW flow lake effect on into Wednesday afternoon and night as the initial stronger band of lake effect shifts westward along the south shore of Lake Ontario. Good signal of stronger H85 lift which will be intersecting the DGZ. Result would be several inches of additional snow spreading over western Oswego, N. Cayuga and Wayne counties with even a couple inches as far west as Monroe County. Possible that additional winter weather advisories may be needed for some of these areas later Wednesday into Wednesday night.

Persistent NW low-level flow in the lake effect layer will keep some lake effect snow showers going along the south shore of Lake Ontario late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. Eventually warm air advection aloft will spell an end to this round of lake effect by Thursday afternoon. High pressure ridge shifts across the Ohio Valley later Thursday into Thursday night. Temps will top out in the mid to upper 30s by late Thursday then only slowly fall or become steady later Thursday night as the ridge center places most of the area in return flow at the sfc. Temps across lower elevations likely stay above freezing. High pressure becoming centered across the Appalachians and trough over Quebec will lead to another breezy day on Friday. High temps will warm well above normal though with readings into the 40s and even lower 50s over typical warm spots of the Genesee valley.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
The long term period will feature mainly dry weather. A moisture starved mid-level trough will track to our north across eastern Canada Friday night through Saturday night. Just a small chance of rain/snow showers east of Lake Ontario. Mostly a dry weekend expected though. Sunday will be breezy and warmer with highs again well above averages for what will be mid December. Cold front works through next Monday with mainly lower elevations rain/snow and higher elevation snow. Given temps only falling to the mid 30s at the coolest though, not much snow is expected.

AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Narrow bands of lake effect snow bands will continue east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario this evening. Snow showers are more widespread east of Lake Ontario. Light snow is possible at KART.
Elsewhere, light snow is possible in widely scattered bands but probability is low. Mainly MVFR/IFR conditions at lower elevations (KIAG, KBUF, KROC) through this evening.

Lake effect bands will weaken while moving north tonight. Light snow may move into KBUF/KIAG and KART late tonight and result in a period of light snow and reduced flight conditions. It will be short-lived.
Winds increase across the region Tuesday morning. Strongest winds will be northeast of the Lakes by Tuesday afternoon.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Breezy.

Tuesday night through Wednesday...Areas of MVFR/local IFR with lake effect snow showers, mainly east of Lake Ontario.

Thursday and Saturday...VFR.

MARINE
Westerly winds will continue to produce higher end Small Craft Advisory conditions on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. West winds will become southwest and increase on Tuesday ahead of a cold front on both Lake Erie and Ontario through the day. There may be a period of frequent Gale force gusts Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Winds diminish but continue to produce small craft conditions through Wednesday night.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 6 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ001-002-010- 011.
Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon for NYZ006-008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for LEZ040-041.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for LOZ042.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for LOZ030.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for LOZ043>045.

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