Grandyle Village, NY Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Grandyle Village, NY

June 19, 2024 10:09 AM EDT (14:09 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:35 AM   Sunset 8:59 PM
Moonrise 6:06 PM   Moonset 2:21 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 950 Am Edt Wed Jun 19 2024

Rest of today - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy late this morning, then becoming partly Sunny.

Tonight - Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.

Thursday - Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming west. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Thursday night - Northwest winds less than 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.

Friday - North winds less than 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day, then a chance of showers Friday night.

Saturday - Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming south. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.

Sunday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off buffalo is 70 degrees.

LEZ005
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grandyle Village CDP, NY
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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 191048 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 648 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
Hot and humid weather through at least Thursday with apparent temperatures likely to reach 100F at many locations during the afternoon hours. There will also be showers and thunderstorms at times, especially during the afternoon and early evening hours. A modest respite from the heat will come in time for the weekend as a cold front approaches the region on Friday, although temperatures will still remain very warm.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
The upper level high will remain in place today, centered over the Mid-Atlantic, ensuring 850 mb temperatures continue to hover around +20C. This will support another hot day with high temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s. dewpoints do not really back off that much with lower to mid 70 sat most location, leading to maximum heat index values in the lower 100s. The lower Genesee Valley and city of Rochester will be close to heat warning criteria (105).

The region will continue on the western periphery of the upper high keeping much of the area dry, but scattered thunderstorm will once again be possible mainly during the peak of the diurnal cycle this afternoon/early evening. Convection mostly focusing on lake breeze boundary or associated with disturbances working around the high.
Strong gusty winds are the main concern with this weakly sheared convection. Precipitable water values will remain high (in excess of 1.5"), with slow storm motion again presenting a risk for localized very heavy rainfall bringing the potential for flash flooding.

Any afternoon and evening convection will diminish overnight tonight, other than perhaps a stray shower or storm. There will be little reprieve from the muggy conditions with low temperatures in the lower to mid 70s, with some upper 60s across the Southern tier and North Country.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
...Heat Advisory in Effect for the Entire Area as Dangerous Heat Continues Through Thursday...

The broad ridge the has built itself across New England this week, will settle south across the Mid-Atlantic, while a northern stream trough slides across eastern Canada (Quebec and the Canadian Maritimes). At the surface, low pressure well to the north of New York State, will drag its surface cold front sag south across the region Thursday before stalling across the southern portions of the state. This being said, chances for showers and thunderstorms will start Thursday morning and become more organized in the afternoon.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed the majority of the forecast area under a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms, along with a Slight Risk across the eastern Southern Tier due to the increase in instability. In addition to the thunderstorm risk, Thursday will remain HOT, though it will be on the tail end of the heat. Highs Thursday will topple off in the upper 80s to lot 90s across much of the area.

Thursday night through Friday, the aforementioned frontal boundary will stall out over the forecast area, continuing the opportunity for showers and thunderstorms. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will lie across the southern portion of NY State towards the state line. While it will still be warm on Friday, temperatures will have 'cooled' off some with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

The stalled front from earlier in the day Friday, will then advance north now as a warm front late Friday night into Saturday. This being said, with the lack of diurnal heating Friday night, the area should remain mainly on the dry side. Showers and thunderstorms will then increase in coverage starting Saturday morning and mainly impact the North Country, however certainly can't rule out a stray shower or thunderstorm across the remainder of the area as the warm sector of the next surface low moves north of the region.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
The warm sector of a surface low crossing the Great Lakes will be in place for Saturday night and Sunday continuing the potential for showers/storms across the entire area. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than Friday, but not as warm as the current mid-week temperatures.

The cold front associated with the surface low passing to the north will cross the area on Sunday evening and into the night, causing more organized showers/storms to move through the area. A potent shortwave trough tracking across the area behind the passing front will continue the shower potential for Monday.

Increased ridging and an incoming surface high will result in drier conditions for Monday night through the rest of the period.

Temperatures will be well above normal for the weekend with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s. Temperatures cool behind the passing cold front to the mid 70s to low 80s for Monday before warming again for Tuesday back to the low to upper 80s.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Fog is possible in the Southern Tier river valleys with a brief period of MVFR or even IFR vsby possible at KJHW through 11Z.

Mainly VFR flight conditions through the day today. Showers and storms will develop during the afternoon hours. Localized MVFR or lower possible.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Saturday...Mainly VFR, but a chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms inland from the lakes.
Sunday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of thunderstorms.

MARINE
A generally quiet period is expected for the lower Great Lakes through the rest of the week and into the weekend as a large upper-level ridge remains across the eastern CONUS, resulting in a lighter surface flow. Only concern will be in the afternoon and early evening hours this week as daily isolated to scattered thunderstorms could produce higher wind gusts and waves.

CLIMATE
The heat will continue through Thursday. Below are record high temperatures for our three main climate sites:

Buffalo

Date
Record Maximum (F)...Record warm Minimum (F)...

June 19
90/2001............73/1919
June 20
92/1995............73/2012


Rochester

Date
Record Maximum (F)...Record warm Minimum (F)...

June 19
95/2001............72/1919
June 20
95/1953............72/1923


Watertown

Date
Record Maximum (F)...Record warm Minimum (F)...

June 19
91/2007............70/1949
June 20
90/1971............71/2012

Temperature records for Buffalo and Rochester date back to 1871.
Temperature records for Watertown date back to 1949.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ001>008-010>014- 019>021-085.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 10 mi51 min0G1 75°F 72°F30.2569°F
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 12 mi51 min 76°F 30.25
45142 - Port Colborne 14 mi69 minSSE 3.9G5.8 72°F 68°F1 ft30.27
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 15 mi51 min 77°F 30.26
YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY 28 mi69 minSSW 8G12 80°F 30.24
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 29 mi69 minSSE 4.1G7 81°F 30.27
45139 - West Lake Ontario - Grimsby 36 mi69 minWSW 3.9G5.8 76°F 66°F30.23
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 38 mi69 minSW 7G11 80°F 30.24


Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Buffalo, NY,




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