Thursday, September19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grandyle Village, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 7:20PM Thursday September 19, 2019 2:57 PM EDT (18:57 UTC) Moonrise 9:21PMMoonset 11:09AM Illumination 69% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 424 Am Edt Thu Sep 19 2019
Today..Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Sunny.
Tonight..Light and variable winds becoming south 5 to 10 knots. Mainly clear.
Friday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Sunny.
Friday night..Southwest winds less than 10 knots. Mainly clear.
Saturday..South winds 10 knots or less. Partly cloudy.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely Sunday night.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. Showers likely during the day, then a chance of showers Monday night. The water temperature off buffalo is 69 degrees.
LEZ020 Expires:201909191515;;013434 FZUS51 KBUF 190824 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 424 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ020-191515-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grandyle Village CDP, NY
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location: 42.86, -79.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 191817
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
217 pm edt Thu sep 19 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will provide us with a prolonged stretch of ideal late
summer weather through Sunday, with temperatures climbing to well
above normal by this weekend. The next chance of rain will not
arrive until Sunday night.

Near term through Friday
High pressure will slowly drift southwest across western new england
with associated subsidence and dry air dominating our region. Expect
plenty of sunshine with just some passing cirrus through the rest of
the day. Temperatures will be about 5 degree above normal with most
locations reaching the lower to mid 70s.

High pressure will move southwest to near the DELMARVA tonight, then
settle across the mid atlantic region on Friday. Aside from the
typical river valley fog again across the southern tier late tonight
through mid morning Friday, this feature will continue to dominate
our weather through Friday ensuring that conditions remain dry with
just some patches of thin upper level cirrus still moving overhead
from time to time. Low level moisture will increase somewhat across
western ny by Friday afternoon, possibly producing some fair weather
cumulus clouds across the southern tier and finger lakes region
during the afternoon. Warmer air will start to advect northward
around the western periphery of the high, which will make for a more
seasonable night with regards to temperatures. Lows tonight will be
a few degrees warmer than previous nights, with lows in the mid to
upper 40s across the higher terrain, to the lower and mid 50s
elsewhere. The upward trend in temperatures will continue for Friday
with continued warm air advection. Temperatures will run about 7 to
10 degrees above normal with highs mainly in the mid and upper 70s,
with some lower 70s reserved for the higher terrain east of lake
ontario.

Short term Friday night through Monday night
High pressure through the upper levels will remain in place through
Saturday night before ridge axis slides off the east coast Sunday.

Initial bout of increasing low-level moisture and what looks like a
weak warm frontal segment could bring a few showers to far SW ny on
Saturday, though given lack of deeper moisture and larger scale lift
it is too low a chance to place in forecast. Main result of the
increasing moisture will probably be a more robust CU field over
especially inland western ny into the afternoon. Weaker warm front
lifts north on Saturday night with pooling of low-level moisture and
low-level convergence too far north of here to support any pops. As
western and north central ny will become increasingly within the
warm sector, looking at a warm night with lows mainly in the 60s.

For reference, normal *highs* this time of year are in the upper 60s
to near 70f.

Latest rounds of guidance are in better agreement that Sunday should
end up breezy, warm and essentially rain free across all of the
forecast area. Essentially this is a convergence on the previously
slower ECMWF idea. As of now, since upper level trough is still well
upstream over plains into the upper great lakes leading to the upper
flow paralleling low-level flow, associated pre-frontal sfc trough
with pooling of dewpoints in middle 60s is forecast to be over
central great lakes by later Sunday evening and now only eases into
western ny around daybreak Monday. With limited forcing and
instability ahead of pre-frontal trough, think rain will hold off
til after midnight Sunday night, if not even later. H85 temps
surging toward +16c if not warmer with less cloud cover than
previously thought, points to better mixing and potential for many
areas to see highs into the middle 80s. SW winds will be breezy with
40-50 kt low-level jet in place. Expect to see SW winds Sunday
into Sunday evening of 15-20 mph with gusts 25-30 mph.

Upper level trough begins to dig toward lower great lakes later
Sunday which allows the associated pre-frontal trough to finally
move in late Sunday night. The sfc trough along with PVA on leading
side of larger scale trough along with right entrance region from
upper jet arcing across quebec should allow showers to expand across
western ny and eventually toward finger lakes and north central ny.

The upper level flow pattern will pick up remnant moisture flowing
northward from tropical system imelda and also from the outer bands
of moisture from what was once hurricane lorena along the west coast
of mexico. These tropical connections into the approaching frontal
boundary should allow pwats to rise sharply towards 1.50 to 1.75
inches (approx. 200-300 percent of normal) later Sunday night into
Monday morning. This tropical like airmass, along with warm cloud
depth of 12-13k feet will make for efficient precipitation processes
and possibilities of brief heavy rainfall. Instability continues to
look minimal, with just a slight chance for thunder Sunday night and
into Monday as clusters of rain showers pass across the region.

Though temperatures on Monday in the lower to maybe mid 70s will be
some 10-15 degrees lower compared to the warmth seen on Sunday,
readings will still be above normal.

A secondary shortwave sliding across the lower great lakes on Monday
as pre-frontal trough works through continues to make for a slower
exit to this system, with rain showers likely through at least the
first half of the day Monday, then into Monday evening east of lake
ontario where wrap around moisture and upslope flow will likely
continue light rain showers.

Long term Tuesday through Thursday
Shortwave trough exits east of the area on Tuesday. Though low-level
cyclonic flow looks relatively weak behind the system, h85 temps
dropping to 4-6c is sufficient for lake effect processes as delta
t S climb to 14c - lake erie and 16c on lake ontario. Would like to
see more deeper moisture (soundings only show moist layer 925mb-
800mb 3-6kft to support much in way of showers, but did increase sky
cover and have small chances in downstream of the lakes. Greatest
chances will be over higher terrain east of lake ontario with a bit
more moisture and cyclonic upslope flow closer to exiting sfc low.

Should finally bring some dry weather into region Tuesday night and
maybe into Wednesday with near normal daytime temps in the upper 60s
to lower 70s. 12z GFS is now very aggressive in bringing next chance
of rain in on Wednesday. At this time will keep Wednesday dry
(similar to all but two of GFS runs the last few days) and bring
pops more in on Thursday, similar to ecmwf, when wpc hand drawn
progs show next cold front moving through. Temps Wednesday and
Thursday will remain around normal with upper 60s to lower 70s
during the day and nighttime lows in the 50s, with typical cool
spots dropping into the lower 40s one or both mornings.

Aviation 18z Thursday through Tuesday
High pressure across new england will allow forVFR conditions
through the period, with nothing more than some passing cirrus at
times along with light winds through midday Friday. Only exception
will again be some localized ifr in areas of river valley fog that
develop late tonight and last through mid morning across the inland
southern tier.

Outlook... Friday night through Sunday... MainlyVFR, with localized
ifr in southern tier valley fog possible each night early morning.

Sunday night and Monday... Areas of MVFR with showers likely.

Tuesday... MVFRVFR with scattered showers.

Marine
High pressure will provide our region with light winds and minimal
wave action through Saturday night.

A low pressure system will develop across northern ontario province
this weekend, with southwest winds increasing to at least 15 to 20
knots by Sunday.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jm tma
near term... Jm
short term... Jla thomas
long term... Jla
aviation... Jm
marine... Jm tma


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 10 mi58 min WSW 5.1 G 6 71°F 71°F1024.4 hPa (-1.1)40°F
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 12 mi58 min 72°F 1023.7 hPa (-1.0)
45142 - Port Colborne 14 mi58 min ENE 1.9 G 3.9 69°F 70°F1 ft1024 hPa (-0.8)
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 15 mi58 min 1024.5 hPa (-0.7)
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 29 mi58 min SSE 6 G 8 73°F 1024 hPa (-0.9)
45139 - West Lake Ontario - Grimsby 36 mi178 min SSW 3.9 G 7.8 69°F 67°F1 ft1024.1 hPa (-0.8)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 38 mi58 min NNE 7 G 8.9 67°F 1024.7 hPa (-0.7)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport, NY19 mi2.1 hrsSSW 410.00 miA Few Clouds71°F46°F41%1024.5 hPa
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY19 mi2.1 hrsS 610.00 miFair70°F50°F49%1024.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBUF

Wind History from BUF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE7
G15
E7E5E8E5E6E6E7CalmSE5SE5SE5SE5SE5SE6SE7SE5SE5S4S3S7S8SW4S6
1 day agoE8
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E7NE8NE7NE8NE6E5SE7SE5SE5SE5SE4SE3E3SE5SE3E5SE4SE3SE5E6E10E10NE9
2 days agoNE8NE8NE7N11NE8NE8NE6NE6E8E6E5E5E3NE4N4NE3NE3E4CalmCalm3E6E5NE3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.