Wednesday, July8, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Wind Point, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:20AMSunset 8:32PM Wednesday July 8, 2020 1:50 AM CDT (06:50 UTC) Moonrise 11:08PMMoonset 8:41AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ673 Expires:202007080915;;493626 Fzus63 Kmkx 080214 Glflm Open Lake Forecast For Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/sullivan Wi 914 Pm Cdt Tue Jul 7 2020 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan. Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10% Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered.
Synopsis.. Thunderstorms with gusty winds will linger into early morning Wednesday over the southern one third of lake michigan. Otherwise, mostly quiet conditions are expected for Wednesday with weak high pressure of 29.9 inches over michigan with primarily light southerly winds expected. Southerly winds Thursday will be a bit more breezy prior to the front pushing through and bringing back light northwest flow Friday. && lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-080915- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 914 pm cdt Tue jul 7 2020 sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south...
Rest of tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 kt diminishing to less than 10 kt. Scattered showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms late this evening. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 kt increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming south. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thursday night..South winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southwest. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Friday..West winds 10 to 15 kt becoming northwest. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Friday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 kt increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Saturday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming north 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Sunday..North winds 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
LMZ673


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wind Point, WI
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location: 42.86, -87.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 080442 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1142 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2020

UPDATE. The forecast is on track for tnt-Wed. Another hot day is expected with heat index values possibly reaching 100F over south central WI.

AVIATION(06Z TAFS). At least light fog will form tnt in some areas due to the rain but cannot rule out isolated dense fog. Much lower chances of showers and storms for Wed with sct cumulus once again

PREV DISCUSSION. (Issued 1024 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2020)

UPDATE . The light rain is coming to an end over far se WI. Clearing skies will follow with some further cooling expected. With already low dewpoint depressions expect patchy fog to form.

For Wed, temps aloft will be warmer with ridging aloft, but a vorticity maximum will be across nrn IL. Overall, forecasting slight chances for showers and tstorms in the afternoon. The lake breeze boundary and any remnant outflow boundaries that may move nwd from IL would be the focus.

MARINE . Light sly flow will continue over Lake MI tnt-Thu, followed by a cold front that will shift the winds to light to modest nwly flow for late Thu nt-Fri AM.

PREV DISCUSSION . (Issued 735 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2020)

UPDATE . Gust front over far se WI has observed winds in the 40 mph range, but fairly gusty winds in the heavy rain area as well. A stratiform area of rain will follow for a couple hours. Added patchy fog to the forecast given the rainfall and low dewpoint depressions.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS) . The showers and tstorms and any MVFR and IFR vsbys and cigs will end from nw to se across srn WI this evening. At least light fog will form tnt in some areas due to the rain but cannot rule out isolated dense fog. Much lower chances of showers and storms for Wed with sct cumulus once again.

PREV DISCUSSION . (Issued 341 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2020)

SHORT TERM .

This Evening Through Wednesday . Forecast Confidence is Medium .

Lingering showers and storms this evening but we will become more quiet into the overnight period as the weak front pulls to our north. This will bring us light southerly winds through Wednesday. Currently Wednesday looks to be quite warm with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s with heat indices approaching 100 across much of the CWA. Thus we have issued a Heat Advisory for much of the western parts of our CWA, which will have the best chances for heat indices around 100. In addition, we will have some chances for a few weak storms/showers across the area, perhaps driven by the lake breeze. Much of the area may remain dry, especially further west which is why the greatest concern for Heat Advisory conditions remains further west. However, we cannot rule out close to Heat Advisory conditions for the remainder of the CWA.

LONG TERM .

Thursday through Tuesday . Forecast Confidence is Medium .

Thursday will become more active given a cold front from the system to the north pushing through with plenty of upper level support from a strong shortwave with decent low to midlevel moisture. This will bring potential for thunderstorms across southern Wisconsin with some potential for some stronger storms, particularly for the western parts of the CWA. Thursday will be our best chance for strong to severe storms this week with plenty of instability and perhaps some weak deep-layer shear.

After the front pulls through a region higher pressure will fill in behind for Friday. Models are suggesting we could see a system Saturday into Sunday impact the area but there is quite a bit of uncertainty from the models for track and timing but it looks likely to move from northwest to southeast in association with a fairly strong upper level shortwave. Following this system uncertainty increases, though we should expect the ridge to start to build back in by the beginning of next week. This would likely keep the region mostly dry outside of mostly weak pop-up/air mass thunderstorms/showers. In, addition the return of the ridge will bring back the warm temperatures after a brief slightly cooler period over the weekend.

AVIATION(18Z TAFS) .

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue over the next several hours perhaps causing brief periods of heavy rainfall, small hail, and gusty winds. This may also cause brief periods of MVFR VSBYS. Otherwise, look for mostly VFR conditions over the next few hours with skies clearing out for the most part this evening. VFR conditions are expected for the remainder of the TAF period. Wednesday looks likely to remain mostly quiet with a few scattered showers/storms, especially closer to the lake.

MARINE .

Primarily light southerly winds continue this evening across the lake with scattered storms weakening as they push over the lake but some breezy conditions are possible right along the western shoreline from weakening storms. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for Wednesday with weak high pressure over Michigan with primarily light southerly winds expected. Southerly winds Thursday will be a bit more breezy prior to the front pushing through and bringing back light northwest flow Friday into the weekend.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for WIZ046-047- 056-057-062-063-067-068.

LM . None.

Update . Gehring Tonight/Wednesday and Aviation/Marine . ARK Wednesday Night through Tuesday . Wood


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 42 mi50 min WSW 8 G 9.9 73°F 1013.5 hPa (-1.4)
45029 43 mi20 min E 7.8 G 9.7 75°F 77°F1 ft1013.2 hPa69°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 43 mi40 min WSW 5.1 G 7 71°F
45013 44 mi50 min WSW 7.8 G 7.8 72°F 71°F1 ft1014 hPa (+0.0)
45187 45 mi30 min W 5.8 G 9.7 72°F 72°F1 ft
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 47 mi50 min ENE 8 G 9.9 75°F 75°F1013.7 hPa (+0.0)71°F
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 47 mi30 min ENE 5.1 G 8.9 74°F 1013.6 hPa70°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI39 mi2 hrsW 610.00 miOvercast72°F69°F91%1013.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRAC

Wind History from RAC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW3CalmCalmCalmW3CalmSW5W7W7SW8NW8NW5E8SE8SE9S9S9S11N18
G34
N8CalmSW6W6Calm
1 day agoW3CalmCalmCalmCalmW4W6W6W7--S5S9S9S12S10S8S12S9S6S6S4SW5SW5SW5
2 days agoW3CalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmE5SE5E8SE8S10SE7SE5NW5S3S3SW3CalmCalmCalm--SW4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.