Friday, December6, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Wind Point, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 4:19PM Friday December 6, 2019 11:38 AM CST (17:38 UTC) Moonrise 2:40PMMoonset 2:08AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ673 Expires:201912062300;;941283 Fzus63 Kmkx 061458 Glflm Open Lake Forecast For Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/sullivan Wi 858 Am Cst Fri Dec 6 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan. Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10% Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered.
Synopsis.. Gusty north to northwest winds continue this morning across lake michigna in the wake of a weak low pressure system. High pressure of 30.3 inches will move into the great lakes this afternoon and night, resulting in diminishing winds. Low pressure around 29.6 inches approaching from the northern plains will bring a round of gusty southerly winds Saturday into Sunday as the low crosses ontario. Gale force gusts are expected and a gale watch is in effect. Gusty northerly winds will develop in the wake of the system later Monday into Tuesday, possibly approaching gale force. A much colder airmass spreading into the region next week will lead to freezing spray conditions. && lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-062300- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 858 am cst Fri dec 6 2019 sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south...
.gale watch in effect from Saturday evening through Sunday morning...
Rest of today..North winds to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft subsiding to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late in the evening, then becoming west after midnight becoming southwest late. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming south 15 to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Saturday night..South gales to 35 kt. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft building to 8 to 12 ft occasionally to 16 ft.
Sunday..Southwest gales to 35 kt diminishing to 30 kt. Chance of rain in the afternoon. Waves 8 to 12 ft occasionally to 16 ft subsiding to 7 to 10 ft occasionally to 13 ft.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming south 10 to 15 kt. Rain likely. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Monday..South winds 10 to 20 kt veering to northwest to 30 kt. Rain likely. Waves 3 to 5 ft building to 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft.
Tuesday..Northwest winds to 30 kt becoming west 15 to 25 kt. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft subsiding to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
LMZ673


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wind Point, WI
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location: 42.86, -87.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 061718 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1118 AM CST Fri Dec 6 2019

UPDATE.

As high pressure spreads into the area the CAA has been weakening a bit quicker than forecast. Couple that with the skies clearing and temps were warmer than forecast and have nudged highs up towards the mid to upper 30s across the entire area. The exception is going to be in the far NE portion of the area in Fond du Lac and Sheboygan counties where clouds continue to hang on, temps could stay close to freezing here.

AVIATION(18Z TAFS).

Clouds have cleared all the terminals and VFR conditions are forecast through the rest of the TAF period with high pressure overhead. This high shifts east on Saturday and winds back to the south with speeds around 10kts. Mid level clouds spread in from the south around 7,000-10,000ft.

PREV DISCUSSION. (Issued 906 AM CST Fri Dec 6 2019)

UPDATE .

Clouds have been slow to clear this morning but satellite trends suggest that much of southern WI will be cloud free by the noon hour. The exception to this is going to be for locations near Lake Michigan where clouds could linger a bit longer. Even with the sun this afternoon the strength of the CAA won't allow temps to climb much above current readings. Made some adjustments to sky and temp trends through the afternoon. Otherwise the current forecast is on track.

MARINE .

Gusty north to northeast winds jumped to near gale force for a brief time this morning across the southern half of the lake. But those have since weakened somewhat. As high pressure builds into the region expect the gusts to continue to fall through the afternoon. No changes are going to be made to the timing of the Small Craft Advisory today as that looks to be on track. Expect winds and waves to subside through the day across the entire lake.

PREV DISCUSSION . (Issued 539 AM CST Fri Dec 6 2019)

UPDATE .

Low clouds are hanging on across southern WI due to cold air advection this morning. The hole in the clouds is filling in over southeast WI as well. High pressure will continue to wedge into western WI and eventually southern WI today, so expect the clouds to gradually clear. Timing is quite uncertain. Most of the models want to clear the clouds very early in the day, but early morning satellite trends suggest otherwise.

AVIATION(12Z TAFS) .

Low clouds with ceilings around 2000 ft have overspread southern WI early this morning due to cold air advection in the wake of a weak clipper system. The hole in the clouds is now closing across southern WI. Expect clouds to gradually clear today, although timing is uncertain. Most of the models want to clear the clouds very early in the day, but early morning satellite trends suggest otherwise. Ceilings should at least become VFR as they lift to 3500 ft by afternoon if they hang around longer than expected.

After a brief period of clear skies this afternoon and evening, mid level clouds are expected to sneak southward overnight. Increasing southerly winds and more mid level clouds will develop Saturday afternoon as another low pressure system approaches.

PREV DISCUSSION . (Issued 248 AM CST Fri Dec 6 2019)

SHORT TERM .

Today through Saturday . Forecast Confidence is Medium to High.

A weak clipper system rolled across northern Lake Michigan last evening. Cold air advection and associated low clouds were sinking southward overnight and have overspread all of southern WI. There are holes in the stratus, especially over portions of northeast WI, so there is some uncertainty in how long these clouds will hold. Winds are rather gusty with the cold air advection. The RAP is showing higher winds than what is actually happening, so I used a blend of RAP and CONSRaw to get winds in the ballpark.

The pressure gradient relaxes as high pressure noses into WI by midday. The low level lapse rates due to cold air advection should decrease as well, so there is a decent chance for skies to clear this afternoon. Despite clearing skies, high temperatures will only make it into the lower to mid 30s.

It will be a chilly night tonight with high pressure overhead and mainly clear skies to begin. Mid level clouds are expected to spread into southern WI overnight as some weak warm air advection resumes with return flow around the high.

With high pressure over the Ohio River Valley and low pressure approaching from the Northern Plains, a tightening pressure gradient will bring increasing southerly winds to southern Wisconsin and Lake Michigan Saturday afternoon. Cloud cover is a little uncertain for the day, as warm air advection and an approaching low oftentimes comes with clouds. Highs are expected to reach around 40, although there is chance for slightly warmer temps.

LONG TERM .

Saturday Night through Sunday Night . Forecast Confidence High .

Continued breezy conditions will keep temperatures on the warmer side Saturday night, with lows only falling into the low to mid 30s. That will set the stage for a warmish Sunday, with highs in the low to mid 40s, despite increasing cloud cover. Precip chances will increase through the afternoon into the evening, likely beginning in the form of patchy drizzle over the southeast, and expanding from there. A little snow will mix in at times north of I-94, especially toward Monday morning as colder air begins to arrive.

Monday and Tuesday . Moderate Confidence Regarding Snow, High Confidence in Temperatures .

The surface cold front will sweep through the region during the day Monday, with temperatures likely falling rapidly through the afternoon and especially into the evening hours. There looks to be a decent chance for most of the area to see a period of light snow Monday afternoon and evening, though uncertainty is higher than usual given some phasing issues in the model guidance with the mid level shortwaves.

Lows Monday night are expected to fall into the teens and single digits, with temps only recovering a couple of degrees during the day Tuesday. It will be quite breezy Monday night and Tuesday as well, resulting in wind chills around or below zero for much of the area.

Tuesday Night through Thursday Night . Forecast Confidence Moderate .

A reinforcing frontal boundary will pass through the area later Tuesday. Tuesday night through Wednesday night currently looks to be the coldest stretch, with overnight lows in the single digits below to single digits above zero, and daytime highs on Wednesday struggling to make it into the teens. Continued breezy conditions will result in wind chills between -10 and -20 late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

Another wave may bring a round of precipitation to the Great Lakes/Midwest late in the workweek and/or heading into next weekend, though there is considerable uncertainty as to how this system will evolve.

AVIATION(09Z TAF Update) .

Low clouds with ceilings around 2000 ft have overspread southern WI early this morning due to cold air advection in the wake of a weak clipper system. However, there is a hole in the clouds over northeast WI and it is expanding into southern WI. Not sure how long this clearing will last. Gusty northerly winds and these low clouds should persist through the morning hours and then weaken/clear up by early afternoon.

After a brief period of clear skies this afternoon and evening, mid level clouds are expected to sneak southward overnight. Increasing southerly winds and more mid level clouds will develop Saturday afternoon as another low pressure system approaches.

MARINE .

Gusty northwest winds in the wake of a cold front will diminish by early afternoon as high pressure noses into Wisconsin. Look for southerly winds to develop tonight and become strong Saturday afternoon and night. Gusts should reach gale force Saturday night through Sunday. There has been a consistent signal for this to occur, so a Gale Watch is in effect.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. LM . Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for LMZ080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878.

Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for LMZ261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for LMZ645- 646.

Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for LMZ643-644.



Update . Stumpf Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine . Cronce Saturday THROUGH Thursday . Boxell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 42 mi39 min NNW 12 G 16 34°F 1025.1 hPa (+2.1)
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 43 mi29 min NNW 9.9 G 9.9 34°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 47 mi57 min NNW 17 G 23 36°F 39°F1022.2 hPa24°F
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 47 mi29 min NNE 9.9 G 14 35°F 1025.1 hPa22°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI39 mi46 minN 12 G 1610.00 miMostly Cloudy38°F21°F52%1026.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRAC

Wind History from RAC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7S7S4SW7S5S5S4S4S4SW5SW7SW4W5W7NW7
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1 day agoNW16
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NW9W4W6W6W5W5W5W3W5W5W5W4W3W3Calm--SE4
2 days agoSW10
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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