Thursday, July29, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Wind Point, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:38AMSunset 8:16PM Thursday July 29, 2021 3:38 AM CDT (08:38 UTC) Moonrise 11:25PMMoonset 11:32AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ673 Expires:202107291000;;617620 Fzus63 Kmkx 290157 Glflm Open Lake Forecast For Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/sullivan Wi 857 Pm Cdt Wed Jul 28 2021 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan. Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10% Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered.
Synopsis.. A warm front will continue to lift northward across southern parts of the lake this evening. Winds speeds will pick up tonight into Thursday, as low pressure of 29.8 inches moves from south central minnesota into northwest ohio. A round of severe storms are expected with this low this evening into the early overnight hours. Very strong winds in excess of 55 kt will be possible with these storms. North winds are expected behind the low for Thursday and linger into Thursday night. High pressure of 30.1 inches will move into the region Friday, bringing gradually lighter winds. && lmz669-671-673-675-291000- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 857 pm cdt Wed jul 28 2021 sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south to winthrop harbor il to south haven mi...
.severe Thunderstorm watch 399 in effect until 2 am cdt Thursday...
Rest of tonight..South winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southwest 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms through early evening, then showers and Thunderstorms overnight. With damaging winds and large hail. Waves 1 to 2 ft building to 2 to 4 ft.
Thursday..West winds 10 to 20 kt veering to north 15 to 25 kt. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 3 to 5 ft.
Thursday night..North winds 15 to 25 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Friday..Northeast winds 10 to 20 kt diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Friday night..East winds 5 to 10 kt veering to southwest 10 to 20 kt overnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Saturday night..West winds 10 to 20 kt becoming north. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 ft building to 2 to 4 ft.
Sunday..North winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Monday..North winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
LMZ673


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wind Point, WI
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location: 42.86, -87.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 290150 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 850 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021

UPDATE. (Issued 849 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021)

Storms have started over northern WI/central MN this evening along the warm front and weak lake breeze boundary off of Lake Superior. The 00z MPX sounding is quite unstable with 4,000-6,000 J/kg much of this is due to steeper mid/upper level lapse rates. The surface lapse rates remain weak due to remnant cloud cover and smoke layer which likely limited some heating/mixing this afternoon. But as the LLJ gets going and bulk shear ramps up expect any storms to quickly become severe. Hodographs showed strong turning in the low levels with the MPX sounding and this is also evident in the VWP hodograph from the ARX radar. As the LLJ intensifies tonight we can potentially expect a similar looking hodograph for our area ahead of the storms arriving.

While all modes of severe are possible as storms congeal into a line and drop south, the greatest threat is going to be with strong damaging winds of 70 to 90+ mph. In addition to that if we do end up with a similar looking hodograph we could see a few embedded tornadoes in the line. The threat area is for the entire area especially since storms are developing a little further to the west than forecast.

Made some minor tweaks to the timing of storms but otherwise the forecast is in good shape.

Stumpf

SHORT TERM. (Issued 130 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021)

Tonight:

Main focus continues to be on anticipated severe convective system rolling through here later this evening. Think as storms transition from more discrete/supercellular to our north and congeal to a line structure closer to central WI that the line will really gain speed and roll through southern WI, esp EC and SE WI in fairly short order. Potential is fairly high this will bow out with winds in excess of 70 and perhaps a few QLCS type tornadoes as well. So the heightened moderate from SPC looks on track. Decent upper level jet divergence, a mid level shortwave and plenty of higher CAPE values into the late evening/early overnight, the environment appears primed to support the arriving storms.

Thursday through Thursday night:

Cool advection and high pressure take hold. Winds will be predominantly from the north and northeast. Expecting some lower cloud cover to linger especially for the morning but with a low level thermal trough the clouds may be a bit more stubborn.

LONG TERM. (Issued 130 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021)

Friday through Friday night:

High pressure remains in control into Friday though shifts off to the southeast and begins a waa regime.

Saturday through Saturday night:

A northwest mid level flow will drop in a some mid level energy with an associated low pressure system and cold front. Progs are in pretty good agreement in developing some shra/tsra with these features that could linger into the evening hours.

Sunday through Wednesday:

High pressure will largely dominate this period. There is some hint of some diurnal activity with any mid level troughing that may swing through, especially Monday into Monday evening. So some precip potential may need to be added to the forecast at some point. For now will stick with the blended guid and leave this mention out for now.

AVIATION. (Issued 849 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021)

Initially VFR conditions are forecast this evening but a strong line of thunderstorms is expected to drop south out of north- central WI. These will bring strong gusty winds, heavy downpours, frequent cloud to ground lightning, and IFR/MVFR cigs. Once storms move through expect some improvement in cigs/vsbys through the morning as drier air starts to filter in from the north. A few areas of MVFR cigs are possible Thursday afternoon for locations closer to the lake as a front rolls down Lake Michigan.

Stumpf

MARINE. (Issued 130 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021)

A complex of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to track across northern Wisconsin late this afternoon and then drop into central and southern Wisconsin and Lake Michigan this evening. It should exit southern Lake Michigan by 4 AM.

Persistent northerly winds on Thursday will build higher waves over the south half of Lake Michigan Thursday afternoon through Friday.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. LM . None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 13 mi38 min WSW 23 G 37 77°F 1011.4 hPa76°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 42 mi38 min WSW 16 G 22 72°F 1012.5 hPa (+0.3)
45029 43 mi38 min WSW 23 G 41 76°F 77°F2 ft1010.6 hPa (-1.0)72°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 43 mi28 min SW 15 G 20 71°F
45013 44 mi38 min SSW 19 G 25 75°F 72°F1 ft1010.6 hPa (-2.2)
45161 45 mi58 min WSW 16 G 21 76°F 75°F2 ft1010.8 hPa
45187 45 mi38 min 71°F 72°F1 ft
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 47 mi50 min SSW 15 G 17 77°F 78°F1011.3 hPa75°F
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 47 mi28 min WSW 23 G 26 76°F 1007.9 hPa69°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI39 mi45 minS 10 G 198.00 miThunderstorm Light Rain71°F69°F94%1011.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRAC

Wind History from RAC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3CalmW6E3CalmW4--3E6E6E7E7SE8SE10SE11S6S6S3S4S3SW7CalmW5S10
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1 day agoW4SW3NW4N14
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W7W5N3NE4CalmN3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoW6W3W6W6W4W5CalmW4CalmSE8S11SE9S13S96W6SW5SW4SW4SW5W6W8W6W3

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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