Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wind Point, WI

SHORT TERM
Issued 233 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

This afternoon through Tuesday night:

Low pressure pivoting into northern Wisconsin this evening will bring increasing southwesterly winds through this afternoon, with gusts 20-25 mph common across the area. With the flow from the southwest, the lake breeze will remain offshore, allowing for highs in the mid 80s across all of southern Wisconsin all the way to Lake Michigan. The record highs for both Milwaukee and Madison have been broken (previous records 83 degrees in 1995 for Milwaukee and 83 degrees in 2008 for Madison), and are forecast to top out around 85/86 degrees this afternoon.

A few agitated cumulus are visible in the warm sector of the low across central Wisconsin, indicating some potential for an isolated shower or storm late this afternoon into early tonight across central to southeastern Wisconsin (15-30% coverage) as the cold front approaches the area. Main concern with this activity is lightning, as MUCAPE of ~1000 J/kg between 700 and 300 mb is well within the freezing layer for lightning production, but is not favorable for strong updrafts and hail production. A very strong inversion is seen between the surface and 850 mb and will prevent any damaging winds or strong storms.

Precipitation exits into the late overnight hours tonight, with the cold front itself progressing through southern Wisconsin into early Tuesday morning. Therefore, expecting overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s, with temperatures recovering into the 70s Tuesday afternoon under mostly clear skies and light northwesterly winds.

Cloud cover increases again Tuesday evening into Tuesday night as high pressure over the northern Plains interacts and intensifies the frontogenesis across the Middle Mississippi Valley from a low over the southern Plains. Showers and thunderstorms are possible across southern Wisconsin (20-50%), with the best chances (60-70%) near the WI/IL border. CAM solutions are indicating the most widespread convection, with MUCAPE ~1000 J/kg building back into the region between 850 and 300 mb (inversion below 850 mb). A weak LLJ nosing into far southern Wisconsin indicates support for this solution, so have increased PoPs accordingly. LLJ weakens into Wednesday morning as high pressure builds eastward into the Great Lakes, allowing for an end to shower and storm activity.

MH

LONG TERM
Issued 233 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Wednesday through Monday:

High pressure continues to migrate eastward Wednesday through Wednesday night, keeping southern Wisconsin dry with generally light northeasterly winds. Highs in the mid to upper 60s and lows in the upper 40s to low 50s are expected.

As high pressure exits into early Thursday morning, two separate low pressure systems approach the Upper Midwest. The first system ejects from the southern Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley Thursday afternoon, bringing warm frontal precipitation to far southern Wisconsin throughout the day. The second system will progress through southern Ontario Thursday afternoon, phasing with the first system and bringing widespread showers with isolated embedded thunderstorms to the remainder of Wisconsin by Thursday evening. No severe weather is expected at this time with minimal instability and mainly broad forcing. These systems continue to interact and move eastward, phasing into a single system and deepening rapidly over southeastern Ontario Friday morning. This will allow for the development of a deep adiabatic layer across southern Wisconsin and plenty of mid-level (925-700 mb) winds to mix down and produce wind gusts up to 40 mph late Thursday night into Friday, especially after precipitation ends.

Precipitation ends quickly into early Friday morning, with northwesterly winds continuing to gust 30 to 40 mph into at least midday Friday as strong high pressure from the northern Canadian Prairies quickly builds southeastward into the Plains and Mississippi Valley. This will also lead to highs only in the low to mid 50s as skies clear. Winds will gradually diminish Friday afternoon through Friday evening, becoming calm by late Friday night. Lows in the 30s are expected, leading to the first frost and potentially localized freeze conditions into Saturday morning.

High pressure propagates through the Ohio Valley Saturday and Saturday night, keeping winds light and southwesterly. Expect highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s once again. As high pressure exits to the east, expect gusty southwesterly winds to develop Sunday, bringing a return to highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.
Southwesterly winds continue into Monday as low pressure occludes in the Hudson Bay, with some moisture return leading to shower potential by Monday afternoon.

MH

AVIATION
Issued 233 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

VFR conditions expected through the TAF timeframe. Increasing cloud cover this evening with a few showers and isolated storms developing generally north of MKE. Southwesterly winds will continue to gust 15-20 kt through the evening, diminishing overnight. As gusts diminish after sunset, southwesterly LLWS develops. A cold front will shift winds to northwesterly and gusty into Tuesday morning, also bringing a brief period of lower clouds to areas north of the I-90/I-94 corridor. Winds will gradually diminish and clouds will exit throughout the day.

MH

MARINE
Issued 233 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Low pressure around 29.6 inches centered over southern Minnesota will progress eastward overnight tonight, bringing increasing southwesterly winds shifting to northwesterly as low pressure exits. A few thunderstorms are possible this evening into tonight as low pressure approaches and crosses the Lake. Winds become light and variable into the afternoon hours Tuesday and continue into Wednesday as high pressure of 30.3 inches builds toward the region. Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the far southern portions of the lake Tuesday night. Winds become northerly across the southern half on Wednesday as high pressure moves eastward over the northern half of the lake, then easterly into Wednesday night as high pressure moves eastward.
Winds weaken into Thursday as low pressure moves east through the Mississippi Valley, then become northwesterly gales thursday night into Friday as low pressure moves into the eastern Great Lakes and intensifies. A few thunderstorms are possible as low pressure moves through the region. A few storm force gusts are possible Friday.

MH

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.