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LMZ673 Expires:202312080415;;073258 Fzus63 Kmkx 072054 Glflm
open lake forecast for lake michigan national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi 254 pm cst Thu dec 7 2023
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan.
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
Synopsis..
south to southwest winds with gusts up to 30 kts gradually rebuild tonight into Friday as low pressure of 29.3 inches moves eastward into southern ontario. Another area of low pressure will develop over illinois Friday night and move northeastward across lake michigan on Saturday. South winds will shift to the west Saturday afternoon and to the northwest on Sunday as the low exits to the northeast. Wind gusts may reach gale force for the southern half of lake michigan Saturday morning.
lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-080415- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 254 pm cst Thu dec 7 2023
sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south...
Tonight..South winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Friday..South winds to 30 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft.
Friday night..South winds 15 to 25 kt increasing to 30 kt. Rain overnight. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft.
Saturday..Southwest gales to 35 kt becoming west to 30 kt. Chance of rain in the morning. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Saturday night..West winds 10 to 20 kt becoming northwest. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Sunday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft subsiding to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Monday..West winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southwest. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Tuesday..West winds to 30 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 072155 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 355 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

SHORT TERM
(Issued 350 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023)

Tonight and Friday:

Scattered high level clouds and a light southerly breeze are expected tonight, holding overnight lows to the mid 30s to low 40s. The 500mb ridge axis passes overhead tonight and continues east, but southwesterly WAA continues at the surface and boosts tomorrow's daytime high to the mid 50s. Forecast soundings from CAMs suggest that tonight's southwesterly LLJ may supply enough moisture for a broken stratus deck somewhere at or below the 900mb level. Despite the possibility of this extra cloud deck, widespread temps in the mid 50s are still likely tomorrow.

Sheppard

LONG TERM
(Issued 350 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023)

Friday night through Thursday:

As with the previous forecast issuance, the strong low pressure passing through southern Ontario will have a dominant influence over the surface wind field, preventing the secondary low pressure (the center of which crosses our CWA Saturday) from pulling significant CAA into our area (before the precip begins to taper off). Thus, the precipitation we receive Friday night through Saturday morning should fall as rain. Towards the end of the event, cooler / drier air will entrain on some westerly winds, which may allow some snow (with accumulations minimal to none) to mix with the rain for western counties, but the dry slot wrapping around the low is expected to bring an end to the measurable precip shortly thereafter. For the remainder of the weekend a brief light snow shower or flurry wrapping around the back side of the low cannot be ruled out. Dry weather is currently forecast from Monday onwards, with the inner quartile of ensemble high temp forecasts in the 30s. A bowling ball in the 300mb pattern over the rockies is currently indicated by the deterministic models, which may block troughing / cyclogenesis in our area next week.

Sheppard

AVIATION
(Issued 350 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023)

Scattered high level clouds, dry weather, and VFR conditions are expected into tonight. There is some potential for a lower stratus deck (MVFR or low-end VFR level) to develop tonight, but confidence remains too low to include a prevailing BKN deck in TAFs at this time, so this will show as SCT around 2500 ft until confidence increases or decreases. The 2000 ft AGL winds (which carry the moisture for said clouds) are from the southwest, maxing out at 35 to 45 kts from 03z to 10z tonight. If south surface winds grind to a complete halt tonight, there may be a low-level wind shear threat from 03z tonight to around sunrise Friday. Wind shear is currently included in TAFs for the airports we expect it.

Sheppard

MARINE
(Issued 350 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023)

South to southwest winds with gusts up to 30 kts gradually rebuild tonight into Friday as low pressure of 29.3 inches moves eastward into southern Ontario. Another area of low pressure will develop over Illinois Friday night and move northeastward across Lake Michigan on Saturday. South winds will shift to the west Saturday afternoon and to the northwest on Sunday as the low exits to the northeast. Wind gusts may reach gale force for the southern half of Lake Michigan Saturday morning.

Sheppard

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM
Small Craft Advisory
LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...4 AM Friday to noon Friday.

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