Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Aten, NE
April 28, 2024 3:16 PM CDT (20:16 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:26 AM Sunset 8:27 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM Moonset 8:11 AM |
Area Discussion for - Sioux Falls, SD
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FXUS63 KFSD 281947 AFDFSD
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 247 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Intermittent periods of light to moderate showers will continue to spread north through late tonight. Additional accumulations between 0.25" to 0.75" of an inch are expected through Monday morning.
- There are still some low probabilities of an isolated severe weather risk across northwestern IA this evening with large hail up to half dollar size being the main threat.
- Severe weather threat increases Tuesday afternoon through early evening with a Level 2 of 5 risk. Large hail is the main threat, but damaging wind gusts, a tornado, and/or ponding of water from heavy downpours are secondary threats.
- Cooler than or near normal temperatures are favored for Wednesday and beyond. A few periods of low temperatures in the 30s and lower 40s suggest frost/freeze concerns will linger into early May.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
REST OF THE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT: A wet and dreary day continues! Taking a look across the area, light to moderate showers along with a few thunderstorms continue to push northward ahead of the surface low which is currently positioned somewhere over northeastern Nebraska based on the wind field. With cold front sitting just west of the NE/IA border and the warm front lifting across northwestern IA; we're starting to see more convective showers develop with some embedded thunderstorm as lift and instability (300-500 J/kg) increases along the cold front. As this system continues its slow walk towards the northeast, expect most of our current activity to either rotate to the north or northeast into the evening hours. Shifting gears to our severe weather chances; low confidence continues with a highly conditional environment this evening.
Between the mostly stable environment brought from this morning's rain and the lingering stratus deck across our area of interest this afternoon, i'm still not particular convinced that things can get going this evening. With that being said, there is still a conditional chance for a few stronger storms between the Hwy- 20 corridor and areas east of Hwy-59. Further analysis of RAP soundings at Spencer (SPW) and Sioux City (SUX) shows long skinny CAPE profiles (700-1000 J/kg) along with 30-40 kts of bulk shear. This combined with lapse rates varying between 6-7 degree C/km could lead to a few storms with some large hail up to half dollar size this evening with the best window being between 23z to 04z. However, these chances will be conditionally dependent on if the showery activity can clear out across northwestern IA in time for the atmosphere to destabilize. If not, a few moderate to heavy downpours will be possible with any developing activity at best. Lastly, as cooler air begins to pool into the area behind the surface low, temperatures will drop into the upper 30s to low 40s for the night.
MONDAY: Looking into Monday, most of the lingering shower activity will continue to lift northeastwards during the morning hours as the surface low slowly rotates into central MN.
Northwesterly surface winds will increase throughout the day as the SPG tightens as an upper-level ridge approaches. Wind gusts between 15-25 mph are expected across the area. Otherwise, mostly quiet conditions should return by Monday afternoon as increasing warm air advection (WAA) underneath the ridge brings our 850mb temperatures back towards the mid to upper teens by the afternoon. This along with decreasing cloud cover during the day should allow our temperatures to recover slightly with highs expected to vary between the low 50s to low 60s across the area with the warmest conditions expected along the Missouri River Valley. Unfortunately, the quieter condition won't last for long as our attention pivots to the Rockies as a negatively tilted trough ejects into the northern plains during the day on Tuesday.
TUESDAY: Warm air advection and southerly return flow bring a much warmer day Tuesday than the previous few days. Expect temperatures returning to near to above normal values with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Breezy south gradient winds start the day, shifting southwest and west behind a passing cold front. Gusts will peak in the upper 20s and 30s.
Main focus on Tuesday will be the threat for scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Despite initial zonal flow aloft, a jet streak digs the upper trough over the Northern Rockies and bringing broad upper level support for ascent between the upper jet and approaching negatively tilted upper trough. Despite scattered showers and storms in the morning in central SD, capping should greatly limit severe weather concerns until after noon. Moderate to high confidence in rain occurring with GEPS/GEFS and CIPS analogs favoring at least isolated strong to severe storms Tuesday afternoon and early evening due to narrow axis of 1-2 kJ/kg MUCAPE and 50+ kts of 0-6 km shear. 28.12z model soundings suggest skinny CAPE profiles and 7-8 C/km mid level lapse rates, and a not-so-favorable weak cold frontal passage suggests elevated storms near and west of I-29 with a linear mode. Though there is favorable low level curvature in hodographs, stronger mid level winds hold off until late in the day as do dew points exceeding 60F. Can't rule out a tornado in northwest Iowa if the right conditions develop Tuesday evening, but the tornado threat is certainly greater further southeast in central Iowa. Additionally precipitable water values exceeding 1" (90th percentile of NAEFS/EFS) favor heavy downpours with some locations receiving over 1 inch of rain. Expect the main threats with the strongest storms to be large hail and to a lesser extent, damaging wind gusts.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: Drier air aloft settles in with sfc high pressure overnight. With the upper low well to our north and the cold front sagging south to between the I-80 and I-70 corridors, ensemble clusters aside from 40% of GEFS members suggest Wednesday should be dry for many sites. Increased cloudiness with peeks of sunshine Wednesday should make for a fairly nice day with highs in the 60s to mid 70s.
Another round of convection should fire in the Central Plains Wednesday afternoon and/or night, forced by an ejecting CO Low and associated low level jet. While chances for showers and storms increase Wednesday night and Thursday both from another mid level disturbance sliding in from the west and convective remnants in northwest Iowa, at this stage it seems unlikely that we will destabilize enough (MUCAPE < 500 J/kg) to see another round of severe weather threat.
FRIDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND: Low confidence in the forecast for Thursday night and beyond as models struggle to handle the interaction between an upper low stalled over the Canadian Prairie and an upper trough approaching from the West. Near to below normal temperatures are favored for the end of the week and weekend. With lows dipping into the 30s and 40s, frost or a freeze still remains possible into early May. CPC highlights a slight (20%) chance of heavy rainfall over much of the Central U.S. for next Saturday and Sunday, so will want to monitor that period if you have outdoor activities planned.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
MVFR conditions and lower are expected with this TAF period mostly due to the developing showers and thunderstorms. Taking a look at satellite imagery, bands of light to moderate showers along with a few isolated thunderstorms continue to push northwards across most areas this afternoon ahead of another surface low. Expect this developing activity to continue into the evening hours before the showers begin to thin out across areas south of I-90 leaving behind areas of MVFR to IFR stratus in its wake overnight. Otherwise, northeasterly winds this afternoon will shift to the northwest overnight behind the surface front to end the TAF period.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 247 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Intermittent periods of light to moderate showers will continue to spread north through late tonight. Additional accumulations between 0.25" to 0.75" of an inch are expected through Monday morning.
- There are still some low probabilities of an isolated severe weather risk across northwestern IA this evening with large hail up to half dollar size being the main threat.
- Severe weather threat increases Tuesday afternoon through early evening with a Level 2 of 5 risk. Large hail is the main threat, but damaging wind gusts, a tornado, and/or ponding of water from heavy downpours are secondary threats.
- Cooler than or near normal temperatures are favored for Wednesday and beyond. A few periods of low temperatures in the 30s and lower 40s suggest frost/freeze concerns will linger into early May.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
REST OF THE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT: A wet and dreary day continues! Taking a look across the area, light to moderate showers along with a few thunderstorms continue to push northward ahead of the surface low which is currently positioned somewhere over northeastern Nebraska based on the wind field. With cold front sitting just west of the NE/IA border and the warm front lifting across northwestern IA; we're starting to see more convective showers develop with some embedded thunderstorm as lift and instability (300-500 J/kg) increases along the cold front. As this system continues its slow walk towards the northeast, expect most of our current activity to either rotate to the north or northeast into the evening hours. Shifting gears to our severe weather chances; low confidence continues with a highly conditional environment this evening.
Between the mostly stable environment brought from this morning's rain and the lingering stratus deck across our area of interest this afternoon, i'm still not particular convinced that things can get going this evening. With that being said, there is still a conditional chance for a few stronger storms between the Hwy- 20 corridor and areas east of Hwy-59. Further analysis of RAP soundings at Spencer (SPW) and Sioux City (SUX) shows long skinny CAPE profiles (700-1000 J/kg) along with 30-40 kts of bulk shear. This combined with lapse rates varying between 6-7 degree C/km could lead to a few storms with some large hail up to half dollar size this evening with the best window being between 23z to 04z. However, these chances will be conditionally dependent on if the showery activity can clear out across northwestern IA in time for the atmosphere to destabilize. If not, a few moderate to heavy downpours will be possible with any developing activity at best. Lastly, as cooler air begins to pool into the area behind the surface low, temperatures will drop into the upper 30s to low 40s for the night.
MONDAY: Looking into Monday, most of the lingering shower activity will continue to lift northeastwards during the morning hours as the surface low slowly rotates into central MN.
Northwesterly surface winds will increase throughout the day as the SPG tightens as an upper-level ridge approaches. Wind gusts between 15-25 mph are expected across the area. Otherwise, mostly quiet conditions should return by Monday afternoon as increasing warm air advection (WAA) underneath the ridge brings our 850mb temperatures back towards the mid to upper teens by the afternoon. This along with decreasing cloud cover during the day should allow our temperatures to recover slightly with highs expected to vary between the low 50s to low 60s across the area with the warmest conditions expected along the Missouri River Valley. Unfortunately, the quieter condition won't last for long as our attention pivots to the Rockies as a negatively tilted trough ejects into the northern plains during the day on Tuesday.
TUESDAY: Warm air advection and southerly return flow bring a much warmer day Tuesday than the previous few days. Expect temperatures returning to near to above normal values with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Breezy south gradient winds start the day, shifting southwest and west behind a passing cold front. Gusts will peak in the upper 20s and 30s.
Main focus on Tuesday will be the threat for scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Despite initial zonal flow aloft, a jet streak digs the upper trough over the Northern Rockies and bringing broad upper level support for ascent between the upper jet and approaching negatively tilted upper trough. Despite scattered showers and storms in the morning in central SD, capping should greatly limit severe weather concerns until after noon. Moderate to high confidence in rain occurring with GEPS/GEFS and CIPS analogs favoring at least isolated strong to severe storms Tuesday afternoon and early evening due to narrow axis of 1-2 kJ/kg MUCAPE and 50+ kts of 0-6 km shear. 28.12z model soundings suggest skinny CAPE profiles and 7-8 C/km mid level lapse rates, and a not-so-favorable weak cold frontal passage suggests elevated storms near and west of I-29 with a linear mode. Though there is favorable low level curvature in hodographs, stronger mid level winds hold off until late in the day as do dew points exceeding 60F. Can't rule out a tornado in northwest Iowa if the right conditions develop Tuesday evening, but the tornado threat is certainly greater further southeast in central Iowa. Additionally precipitable water values exceeding 1" (90th percentile of NAEFS/EFS) favor heavy downpours with some locations receiving over 1 inch of rain. Expect the main threats with the strongest storms to be large hail and to a lesser extent, damaging wind gusts.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: Drier air aloft settles in with sfc high pressure overnight. With the upper low well to our north and the cold front sagging south to between the I-80 and I-70 corridors, ensemble clusters aside from 40% of GEFS members suggest Wednesday should be dry for many sites. Increased cloudiness with peeks of sunshine Wednesday should make for a fairly nice day with highs in the 60s to mid 70s.
Another round of convection should fire in the Central Plains Wednesday afternoon and/or night, forced by an ejecting CO Low and associated low level jet. While chances for showers and storms increase Wednesday night and Thursday both from another mid level disturbance sliding in from the west and convective remnants in northwest Iowa, at this stage it seems unlikely that we will destabilize enough (MUCAPE < 500 J/kg) to see another round of severe weather threat.
FRIDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND: Low confidence in the forecast for Thursday night and beyond as models struggle to handle the interaction between an upper low stalled over the Canadian Prairie and an upper trough approaching from the West. Near to below normal temperatures are favored for the end of the week and weekend. With lows dipping into the 30s and 40s, frost or a freeze still remains possible into early May. CPC highlights a slight (20%) chance of heavy rainfall over much of the Central U.S. for next Saturday and Sunday, so will want to monitor that period if you have outdoor activities planned.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
MVFR conditions and lower are expected with this TAF period mostly due to the developing showers and thunderstorms. Taking a look at satellite imagery, bands of light to moderate showers along with a few isolated thunderstorms continue to push northwards across most areas this afternoon ahead of another surface low. Expect this developing activity to continue into the evening hours before the showers begin to thin out across areas south of I-90 leaving behind areas of MVFR to IFR stratus in its wake overnight. Otherwise, northeasterly winds this afternoon will shift to the northwest overnight behind the surface front to end the TAF period.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KYKN CHAN GURNEY MUNI,SD | 6 sm | 20 min | NNE 08 | 10 sm | Overcast | 52°F | 50°F | 94% | 29.70 |
Sioux falls, SD,
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