Saturday, August15, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Aten, NE

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 8:31PM Saturday August 15, 2020 2:12 AM CDT (07:12 UTC) Moonrise 1:36AMMoonset 5:25PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Aten, NE
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location: 42.87, -97.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Sioux Falls, SD
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FXUS63 KFSD 150349 AAB AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION . UPDATED National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1049 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

UPDATE. Issued at 630 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

After initial convective development just ahead of and along the surface cold front earlier this afternoon, storms have since struggled to maintain (and develop). This is likely due to upper level forcing not being quite robust enough to assist with cap breakage. Can't rule out storms (with still some isolated severe potential) to form along the front through sunset. Otherwise, most who have not already seen rain today will likely remain dry.

SHORT TERM. (This Evening through Saturday) Issued at 355 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

Showers and thunderstorms have developed along a surface cold front traveling through the region this afternoon and evening, now that the front has moved into an area of better upper level forcing (thanks to some vorticity) along and east of I-29. Dew points ahead of the front are in the mid 70s (aided by continued gusty southerly flow), and temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s, so daytime heating and moisture are not lacking. Latest SPC mesoanalysis shows robust CAPE in the pre-frontal region, with over 4000 J/kg, which will aid in development now that the cap has broken. Bulk shear of 30-35 kts from 0-6 km is supportive of rotating storms/quasi- supercells, which has already been realized with the initial development. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates of over 8 deg C/km are supportive of large hail. Per SPC mesoanalysis, DCAPE values over 1000 J/kg supports severe wind gusts. Tornadic threat is low but non- zero, with 0-1 km bulk shear values are around 10-15 kts along the front, and effective storm relatively helicity (ESRH) around 100-150 m^2/s^2. Heavy rainfall is likely with these storms as precipitable water values are near or above 1.5"; however, with the progressive front, shear perpendicular to the front, and recent dry conditions, am less concerned with the flash flood threat (although, it is not zero). In summary, hail up to 2" and wind gusts up to 70 mph are the main threats with any severe storms. A tornado and isolated flash flooding can't be entirely ruled out.

Hi-res guidance and frontal passage timing keeps the convection threat moving east through northwestern IA and southwestern MN through mid/late evening (through about 15/02z). For the rest of tonight, temperatures behind the front will cool and become more pleasant, especially with dew points dropping into the 50s. Winds shifting from the south to northwest with the frontal passage continue to gust up to 30 mph through sunset this evening. Lows tonight fall into the 50s.

As in previous forecast, did nudge highs slightly for Saturday from guidance, especially west of the James River, given the recent dry conditions and warm air advection at 850 mb. Expect highs in the 80s to near 90, but with dew points in the upper 50s to lower 60s, it will still feel relatively pleasant.

LONG TERM. (Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 355 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

Overall robust ridge building into the western/southwestern CONUS continues through the extended forecast with northwesterly flow aloft. However, a weak shortwave/surface low looks to move through the area on Sunday. Most models hint at a lack of moisture, so expect any precip potential to be isolated in the afternoon/evening.

Another subtle shortwave moves through on late Tuesday night into Wednesday with weak sfc low and vorticity advection, could bring some light precip chances to the area. Again, will keep pops isolated to scattered during Tuesday evening into early Wednesday based on nature of the wave and lack of model consensus.

Models hint at a slight breakdown in the overall ridge pattern by the end of next week, with a couple more weak waves working through the the region, including an upper trough scraping the upper Midwest into the Northern Plains. Models disagree on timing and strength, so have kept model blend as is.

Temperatures through the extended remain fairly seasonal, with highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s and lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1046 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for much of the overnight and through Saturday. As surface high pressure builds in, winds tonight will become light and variable. May see some patchy fog develop from 08-12z, especially in low lying areas or river valleys, but confidence of impacts to terminals was too low to include in the TAFs at this time.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SD . NONE. MN . NONE. IA . NONE. NE . NONE.

UPDATE . SG SHORT TERM . SG LONG TERM . SG AVIATION . BP


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Yankton, Chan Gurney Municipal Airport, SD7 mi17 minNW 410.00 miFair59°F55°F90%1018.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KYKN

Wind History from YKN (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSE6SE9S9S8S6SE9S8S10S14
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Sioux Falls, SD (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sioux falls, SD
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.