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ANZ154 Coastal Waters From Cape Elizabeth, Me To Merrimack River, Ma Out 25 Nm- 641 Am Est Wed Nov 29 2023
.small craft advisory in effect until 3 pm est this afternoon...
Today..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt until late afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to around 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain likely in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds around 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain.
Sat..N winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sat night..NE winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 nm or less in the morning.
Sun night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Rain likely, mainly in the evening. Vsby 1 nm or less.

ANZ100 641 Am Est Wed Nov 29 2023
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm high pressure continues to build in from the west as low pressure lingers across northeastern canada today. The high moves offshore south of the waters tonight and tomorrow, bringing a freshening southwesterly flow. A weak area of low pressure along a cold front crosses the waters Friday night, with a cold front stalling across the waters behind the system this weekend. High pressure mostly passes to the north this weekend. Multiple weak disturbances move along the front this weekend, with a potentially stronger coastal low possible early next week.

FXUS61 KGYX 291143 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 643 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

SYNOPSIS
Snow showers in the mountains will gradually come to an end this morning while most everyone else sees plenty of sun. Some increase in clouds is expected this afternoon. Much warmer weather is expected for Thursday. A low pressure system will make for unsettled weather on Friday, with a prolonged stretch of unsettled weather possibly continuing through the weekend and into early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
640 AM Update...No changes to the going forecast. Upslope clouds in the mountains will continue through at least mid morning with some light snow showers. Otherwise, partly to mostly sunny elsewhere

Previously...

Relatively quiet weather is expected today with a good amount of sunshine, a brisk breeze, and cold temperatures. Early morning clouds and snow showers continue across northernmost NH, but these will gradually diminish early and eventually end this morning. A weak disturbance aloft may move overhead after midday in conjunction with the start of a WAA regime. This may result in an increase in clouds for some this afternoon. High temperatures were derived from a blend of MAV/MET/NBM output which yields readings around 5 degrees below normal.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
WAA regime may aid in variably cloudy skies tonight, at least early on before improvement occurs later on. A few light snow showers or flurries will be possible in the mountains near the Canadian Border. Otherwise, another chilly night in store. The WAA pattern continues on Thursday with dry weather expected.
Southwesterly winds will yield highs around 10 degrees warmer than today.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Overview...

A weak area of low pressure tracks south of the area late Friday into Friday night. A cold front then stalls across New England through the weekend as high pressure passes to the north, making for an extended period of unsettled conditions.
Several waves of low pressure move through the area on Saturday through at least Monday, with the strongest one likely to arrive early next week.

Details...

Friday looks mild with southwesterly flow pushing temperatures to near 50 degrees across southern areas. Clouds quickly fill in during the day as a weak area of low pressure approaches. Light rain and some snow arrive toward sunset, with the bulk of the action occuring through the evening hours and into the early overnight timeframe. The system looks weak, but trends since yesterday have shown a slightly more moist system tracking a bit further north, bringing a much better chance for precip to the area. Light rain is likely across southern areas, with better chances for snow but lighter precip amounts overall across far northern areas. Overall it looks to be shaping up to be a fairly high POP and low QPF system for most areas.

Afterwards, the pattern looks much different for the weekend than it was looking yesterday. High pressure behind this system looks weaker and more likely to remain farther to our north, causing the front to stall across New England, rather than clearing the region. Weak waves of low pressure then progress along this front, with one bringing the chance for scattered showers on Saturday, and another doing the same on Sunday. At the same time, the high to the north will filter in cooler air on northeasterly flow. While precipitation looks light through this timeframe, the set up overall looks favorable for some mixed precipitation. With such a notable shift from yesterday's forecast, it's still too early to try to pin down any kind of sleet or freezing rain areas, so this forecast will remain with rain and snow wording given the uncertainty that remains.

Eyes then turn to whether a stronger coastal system develops in the Monday to Tuesday timeframe. Between Friday and Tuesday, it looks like no less than five disturbances will pass either through or nearby New England. Of these, the fourth and fifth look to have the best chance to become more organized early next week. Models have actually come into worse agreement since yesterday on the progression of these systems, so at this point we'll just have to wait until we get a little closer in time before being able to have higher confidence. Given the fairly drastic change for the weekend forecast from just 3-4 days out, it's difficult to have much confidence in next week's forecast at this time.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Short Term...Scattered snow showers may produce brief reductions in visibility through early this morning in the mountains.Otherwise, VFR expected at all sites today through Thursday. Westerly winds will gust around 20 knots today.

Long Term...VFR conditions prevail through midday Friday, then a period of MVFR to IFR ceilings arrive Friday night with light rain at most terminals, and some light snow across northern terminals. Conditions improve somewhat by Saturday morning, but periods of MVFR ceilings likely linger through the weekend into early next week as multiple disturbances move through the area.

MARINE
Short Term...Small craft conditions continue into early afternoon on gusts around 25 kt. These will diminish to just below SCA thresholds for this afternoon through Thursday.

Long Term...SCA conditions to possibly marginal southwesterly gales arrive Thursday night into Friday as a weak area of low pressure arrives along a cold front. The front then stalls near the waters through the weekend as high pressure passes well to the north of the waters, resulting in mainly fair conditions across the waters. A more significant coastal low pressure system is then possible early next week.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ150>154.

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Hampton Harbor
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Wed -- 12:13 AM EST     8.38 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:21 AM EST     0.53 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:51 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:27 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 12:15 PM EST     9.53 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:10 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:49 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:02 PM EST     -0.55 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Hampton Harbor, New Hampshire, Tide feet

Newburyport (Merrimack River)
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Wed -- 12:54 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:31 AM EST     -1.27 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:51 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:03 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 09:27 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:47 AM EST     1.74 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 01:10 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:56 PM EST     -1.46 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:11 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:49 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:40 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:17 PM EST     1.68 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Newburyport (Merrimack River), Massachusetts Current, knots

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