Scotia, NY Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Scotia, NY

June 18, 2024 1:58 AM EDT (05:58 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:15 AM   Sunset 8:38 PM
Moonrise 5:35 PM   Moonset 2:33 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Scotia, NY
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Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 180545 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 145 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
A warm front will move north of the region overnight with patchy clouds and milder temperatures. The heat and humidity will increase tomorrow reaching dangerous levels for many areas across eastern New York and western New England. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon into the early evening will be common during the week, as a cold front may bring a more widespread chance of showers and thunderstorms on Friday with perhaps a brief reduction of the heat on the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/

UPDATE
As of 0145 AM EDT, convection continues to weaken as it approaches from the west, with only a few sprinkles or light showers potentially reaching the southwestern Adirondacks or western Mohawk Valley through tonight. Elsewhere, patchy valley fog may develop toward daybreak amidst otherwise quiet but mild and muggy weather. Morning lows in the 60s will presage hot weather over the coming days. Forecast therefore remains on track; see previous discussion below...

.PREV DISCUSSION [1020 PM EDT]...As expected, the week started off warmer and more humid with highs today reaching the 80s with peak heat indices (feels-like temperatures) in the mid-80s to lower 90s. The convection approaching from the west associated with a mid-level short wave is becoming outflow dominant and does not appear much if any of this activity will reach our western areas given the recent radar trends and CAMs. As a result, we have removed the slight chance PoPs. The remainder of the night will feature partly to mostly clear weather with most if not all areas remaining dry. Some patchy fog may develop closer to daybreak given the higher low-level moisture, but should remain fairly isolated and confined to the typical locales.

Low and mid level warm advection will continue with the ridging building in from the south. Lows will be much more milder than previous nights with upper 50s to lower 60s over the higher terrain and mid to upper 60s in the valley areas.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/
**Heat Advisories continue from noon Tuesday through 8 PM Thursday for all of eastern New York and western New England**

Tomorrow...the heat and humidity begin to really ramp up as the latest NAEFS/GEFS indicate H500/H700 height anomalies of +2 to +3 STDEVs above normal over eastern NY and western New England.
H850 temps will also increase to +1 to 2+ STDEVS above normal.
Sfc dewpoints will rise into the 60s to around 70F. Max temps will run close to 15 degrees above normal with a blend of ECM MOS/NBM values yielding lower to mid 90s below roughly 1000 ft in elevation and mid 80s to about 90s above it.

Dangerous levels of heat and humidity levels equate to solid heat advisories in the valleys with heat indices of 95F to 104.
Based on the previous collaboration and abundance of precaution we will continue them over the southern Dacks, eastern Catskills and western New England highest terrain though values will be mainly in the mid 80s to lower 90s.

A weak disturbance coupled with some diurnal heated prompted at least isolated or a slight chance of thunderstorms to the forecast from the eastern Catskills, Capital District and Berkshires north and east.

These isolated showers and thunderstorms should diminish early in the evening with a balmy night expected. Where any isolated convection occurs some patchy fog may follow. Lows will be in the lower/mid 60s to lower 70s. The heat head lines remain up at night due to the impacts on communities noted in the recent research studies.

The H500 closed anticyclone settles in over the Mid Atlantic Region into the Northeast on Wednesday with 597-598 decameter heights over the forecast areas. H850 temps will be in the +18C to +21 range. Max temps have only nominally lowered and we are expect some mid and spotty upper 90s in the major valleys and 80s to 90s over the higher terrain. Heat indices are mainly in the lower 90s to lower 100s. A few isolated spots may reach 105 degrees in the Capital Region/Upper Hudson River Valley.
Coverage was not widespread enough for an Excessive Heat Watch.
Some pop up isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible over and near the higher terrain of the southern Adirondacks.
However, the atmosphere is very capped.

Any isolated convection should diminish in the early evening with a very muggy night expected. Lows will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Heat head lines remain up overnight with the vulnerable communities.

Thursday could be interesting day with the ridging perhaps weakening especially north and west of the I-90 corridor. A weak disturbance or sfc trough could focus some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. We have slight to low chance PoPs from the Capital Region...
Berkshires...southern VT and the eastern Catskills north and west. Instability will be moderate to large with PWATS above normal. Some locally heavy rain and gusty winds will be possible with any convection. Max temps at record levels will be possible for the opening of the Summer Solstice at 450 pm EDT with lower to upper 90s below 1000 ft in elevations and 80s to around 90F above it. Heat indices in the lower 90s to 105 will be possible.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
The extended begins with the forecast area still being impacted the by the anomalous hot and humid air mass for early summer.
The ridge along the East Coast remains in place with a closed H500 anticyclone near the Delmarva Region. H500 heights will continue to be +1 to +3 STDEVs above normal based on the latest NAEFS. However, the mid level flow begins to flatten and become more zonal aloft over NY and New England on FRI. A weak cold front begins to sag close to eastern NY and western New England.
A muggy night with lows in the 60s to lower 70s is expected after diminishing isolated showers and thunderstorms. Max temps may still reach the upper 80s to mid 90s in the valleys on FRI with the warmest temps south and east of the Capital District over the mid Hudson Valley, southern Taconics and NW CT. Some upper 70s to mid and upper 80s will be possible over the higher terrain. The frontal boundary and a weak mid level disturbance will bring good chances for showers and thunderstorms. We may need some additional or extended heat advisories from the Capital District south and east with heat indices in the mid 90s to around 100F. Later shifts can assess further.

Friday night into Saturday...The weak cold front may stall and lift back northward as warm front bringing renewed chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms late Saturday. High pressure to the north may briefly build in but the majority of the ensembles and medium range guidance keeps it unsettled. After lows in the 60s with perhaps some upper 50s over the Adirondack Park. The ECMWF ensembles and the latest operational run does show this minor decrease in temps and humidity heading into the weekend. Temps were accepted close to the NBM with mid and upper 80s in the lower elevations with perhaps some 90F readings in the mid Hudson Valley and 70s to lower/mid 80s over the higher terrain. Heat indices for most of the region should fall below 95F but still be in the lower 90s from the Tri Cities south and east.

Saturday night into early next week...The front lifts back north of the region a warm front with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Sat night. However, a stronger short-wave trough and cold front approaches for late Sunday afternoon into Monday with a high chance to likely threat for showers and thunderstorms with better synoptic forcing. Temps may be above normal still on Sunday, but cool closer to normal by early next week with 70s to lower and mid 80s. The heat wave has a good chance of subsiding late in the weekend into early next week. Relief will be eventually on the way.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Through 00z/Wed...VFR conditions will continue through much of the TAF period with mainly some passing mid and high clouds at times. The exception would be whether or not any fog develops overnight. KGFL would likely be most favored and included a 6SM BR in the TAF from 09-12z/Tue to highlight this potential. Will monitor trends through the night. Some isolated thunderstorms may develop later in the afternoon on Tuesday but overall coverage looks low and probability of one impacting a terminal is too low to include in the TAFs at this time.

Wind will trend light to calm at most TAF sites overnight except southerly at 5-10 kt at KALB. Wind will then be south to southwesterly at around 10 kt on Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact
Slight Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact
Slight Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact
Slight Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.

CLIMATE
Record High Temperatures:

Tuesday, June 18: Albany - 97 (1957, 2018)
Glens Falls - 95 (1907)
Poughkeepsie - 94 (2018)

Wednesday, June 19: Albany - 94 (1995)
Glens Falls - 97 (1995)
Poughkeepsie - 92 (1941, 1943, 1993, 2016)

Thursday, June 20: Albany - 97 (1953)
Glens Falls - 97 (1923)
Poughkeepsie - 96 (2012)

Friday, June 21: Albany - 97 (1938)
Glens Falls - 96 (2012)
Poughkeepsie - 97 (1949)

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT Thursday for CTZ001- 013.
NY...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ032- 033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT Thursday for MAZ001- 025.
VT...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT Thursday for VTZ013>015.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KALB ALBANY INTL,NY 14 sm67 minSE 0810 smA Few Clouds77°F64°F65%30.12
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KSCH
   
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Wind History graph: SCH
(wind in knots)
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Tide / Current for Troy, Hudson River, New York
   
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Troy
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Mon -- 02:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 02:20 AM EDT     4.83 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:04 AM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:28 PM EDT     3.87 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:25 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:14 PM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Troy, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet
12
am
3.6
1
am
4.3
2
am
4.8
3
am
4.7
4
am
4
5
am
3.2
6
am
2.5
7
am
1.8
8
am
0.9
9
am
0.4
10
am
0.8
11
am
1.9
12
pm
2.8
1
pm
3.5
2
pm
3.8
3
pm
3.8
4
pm
3.2
5
pm
2.4
6
pm
1.8
7
pm
1.3
8
pm
0.6
9
pm
0.1
10
pm
0.4
11
pm
1.5


Tide / Current for Albany, New York
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Albany
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 02:12 AM EDT     4.83 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:54 AM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:20 PM EDT     3.87 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:25 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:04 PM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Albany, New York, Tide feet
12
am
3.7
1
am
4.4
2
am
4.8
3
am
4.6
4
am
3.9
5
am
3.1
6
am
2.4
7
am
1.6
8
am
0.8
9
am
0.4
10
am
1
11
am
2
12
pm
2.9
1
pm
3.5
2
pm
3.8
3
pm
3.8
4
pm
3.1
5
pm
2.3
6
pm
1.7
7
pm
1.2
8
pm
0.5
9
pm
0.1
10
pm
0.5
11
pm
1.7


Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of north east   
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Albany, NY,




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