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FXUS61 KALY 181755 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 155 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
Clouds and scattered showers diminish today north and west of the Capital District as high pressure begins to build while clouds linger to the south and east closer to an upper-level disturbance. High pressure Sunday into the workweek will warm temperatures well above normal through midweek, before a chance for rain showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday into Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A weakening surface trough continues to track across eastern New York into western New England, resulting in light showers extending from the eastern Catskills into southern Vermont.
Upstream observations show little in the way of precipitation reaching the surface as surface dewpoint depressions are generally 15 degrees or more across the region per ASOS and NYS Mesonet stations.

A weak upper-level system offshore to the southeast has aided in maintaining easterly flow and a relatively cool airmass with abundant clouds upstream over much of New England. However, as upper ridging and high pressure begin to build in from the west, a clearing trend is expected through this evening, particularly from the Capital District to the north and west. Temperatures along and west of the Hudson will be near seasonal norms this afternoon, reaching highs in the mid 60s to low 70s, while conditions will be slightly cooler, in the upper 50s to mid 60s, in the Taconics and western New England.

High pressure continues to increase tonight, with patchy fog possible where skies are clearest, most likely in the Upper Hudson and Mohawk Valleys, and within sheltered locales in the southern Adirondacks. Light rain showers or drizzle may persist in the Connecticut River Valley thanks to moist, onshore flow.
Temperatures fall to overnight lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s across the region.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
The second half of the weekend will feature partly to mostly sunny conditions with a mid and upper level ridge folding into the region. Mid and upper level heights increase. H500 heights from the latest NAEFS are +1 to +2 STDEVs above normal over most of the region by late Sunday. H850 temps also nose above normal a standard deviation or two. Max temps will rise above normal in the mid to upper 70s in the Mohawk and Hudson River Valleys and 60s to lower 70s over the mtns and across most of western New England. The ridge will continue to build in from the lower MS River Valley/Midwest into the Northeast Sunday night. High pressure will build in from the OH Valley and PA with near ideal radiational cooling conditions with mostly clear-partly cloudy skies and light to calm winds with lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

Monday will begin with above normal temps with the ridge at the sfc and aloft. Max temps will increase to 10 degrees or so above normal with H850 temps +1 to +2 STDEVs above normal. High temps will be in the 80-85F range in the valleys, and 70s over the mtns with partly to mostly sunny skies. Monday night will be milder than Sunday night with lows in the 50s to around 60F with mostly clear conditions and light winds.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Long term period begins at 12z Tuesday with upper ridging over the eastern US and high pressure located off the Mid Atlantic coast to our southeast. This will result in warm advection into our region.
850 mb temperatures will reach +15 to +17C, which will translate to high temperatures in the upper 70s for the high terrain and temperatures well into the 80s for the valleys. Therefore, Tuesday will likely be the warmest day of the year so far for most of the region. Tuesday does not look too humid with dew points mainly in the 50s, so "feels like" temperatures are expected to be similar to the actual temperature, maxing out in the upper 80s. There may be a few more clouds around in the afternoon and evening especially north of I-90 as the ridge undergoes anticyclonic wave breaking and a weakening shortwave tracks along its northern periphery. However, lack of moisture and warm temperatures aloft should keep any showers or thunderstorms isolated in nature and limited mainly to the ADKs.
Tuesday night should also be mainly dry with temperatures dropping into the upper 50s to around 60 for the high terrain to mid 60s for the valleys.

Wednesday and Thursday...By 12z Wednesday, a strong surface low will form over the middle of the country in association with deep upper troughing over the upper Midwest. The upper trough closes off and the tracks in tandem with the surface low through the Great Lakes region and into southeastern Canada during the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe, with the trailing cold front tracking through our region.
The exact timing of the cold front is still uncertain, but recent trends in guidance have been to delay the frontal passage until Wednesday night or Thursday. The timing of the front will influence the coverage of showers/storms. We will have to watch trends over the next several days, as a cold frontal passage that aligns with peak diurnal heating could result in some stronger thunderstorms.
Will include chance PoPs Wednesday evening through Thursday due to the timing uncertainty. With the cold front trending slower, Wednesday looks to be another warm day with highs similar to if not a couple degrees warmer than on Tuesday. Fortunately, dew points look to be mainly in the 50s to around 60 again so feel like temperatures are currently expected to once again top out in the upper 80s. Lows will me mainly in the 60s Wednesday night. Highs Thursday should be a few to several degrees cooler than Wednesday, with the warmest temperatures (mid 80s) south and east of the Capital District.

Thursday night through Saturday...We dry out as the cold front moves off to our east and we see northwesterly winds advecting cooler and drier air into the region. Friday should therefore be mostly dry.
Highs Friday and Saturday will be in the 60s (terrain) to 70s (valleys) with overnight lows in the 40s to 50s. Saturday, another low pressure system may track near the region, although some guidance keeps it and any associated showers to our south. Looking to days 8-14, the CPC is expecting near normal temperatures and above normal precipitation.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Through 18Z Sunday...VFR conditions expected to prevail at all terminals through much of the period. Scattered rain showers continue to track across portions of the region, with periods of light rain possible at POU/PSF around 21Z Sat-03Z Sun. Upstream observations indicate little precipitation is reaching the ground, and therefore minimal impacts to vsbys are expected.

Otherwise, high pressure building in from the west will see a general clearing trend, particularly at ALB/GFL, through the remainder of the period. Sct-bkn skies at 3-5 kft will decrease in coverage to few-sct through this evening. Patchy fog is possible tonight where skies are clearest, most likely at GFL. With easterly flow advecting a marine airmass into southern and eastern areas, MVFR cigs may develop this evening at PSF and overnight at POU.

Light east to northeast winds at 10 kt or less will continue through today, becoming calm to light and variable after 00-06Z Sun. Winds increase out of the east to northeast again at less than 10 kt after 12-15Z Sun.

Outlook...

Sunday Night to Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

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Sat -- 02:00 AM EDT     4.71 feet High Tide
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