NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 924 Am Est Fri Dec 8 2023
Rest of today..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly to mostly Sunny.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy.
Saturday night..South winds 5 to 15 knots. Rain.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Rain during the day, then rain with snow likely Sunday night.
Monday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy.
the water temperature off buffalo is 44 degrees.

LEZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 082147 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 447 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

SYNOPSIS
The mild weather will continue into Saturday, as afternoon temperatures warm well into the 50s across a good chunk of the area. A low pressure system will then cross the upper Great Lakes moving to near James Bay Saturday night, with a wavy cold front slowly crossing the region Sunday bringing a widespread soaking rainfall to the area for the second half of the weekend.
Colder air moves in behind the cold front with rain changing to an accumulating snow Sunday night, especially across the higher terrain, that will last into the start of the new work week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
Visible satellite imagery depicts just some high thin cirrus across the eastern half of the forecast area. Different story across areas from the Finger Lakes west, where low level cloud deck has moved in from the west with gray skies returning. Low level clouds will continue to slowly fill in from west to east through the evening hours. Otherwise, upper level ridge will crest over the area this evening, while surface ridge presses east toward the New England coast. Meanwhile, frontal boundary remains stalled across northern NY, as evidence of a 32F temp at Wellesley Island, while just south 43F in Watertown with widespread 50s from the Finger Lakes westward.

The surface high will slide to the east and center across the Eastern Seaboard tonight, while the mid level ridge axis slowly moves over eastern NY/western New England by early Saturday morning.
Additionally, a shortwave will pass by to the northwest of the area, which will bring some increased cloud cover, however dry conditions will prevail. A warm southerly low level return flow will persist tonight. This in addition to increasing cloud cover will result in a mild night with lows ranging in the mid to upper 30s east of Lake Ontario and the low to mid 40s elsewhere.

Meanwhile to the west, the next deep mid-level trough spanning as far south as the Gulf of Mexico will bring the next round of active weather for later this weekend. This all being said, outside of increasing cloud cover Saturday dry weather will prevail throughout most of the day Saturday. Additionally, mild weather will continue and be warmer than today. Highs will warm up into the mid to upper 40s east of Lake Ontario with low to mid 50s across the western portions of the area.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A very active Saturday night into Monday period is still expected.
The approach of an amplifying upper trough and slow moving cold front will result in a widespread soaking rainfall Saturday night and Sunday as both Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico moisture are advected northward. Colder air spreading in behind the cold front late Sunday into Monday morning will bring a transition to some accumulating wet snow. Most areas will only see minor amounts, with the potential for higher amounts across higher terrain.

Model trends continuing to suggest an arrival time of the rain into western New York Saturday evening, reaching north central New York by late evening or near midnight. Deep southerly flow ahead of the system will keep overnight temperatures mild, with most areas only dropping into the mid to upper 40s. This will be close to 20 degrees above normal minimum temperatures.

Cold front eases across the area Sunday and Sunday night as several waves of low pressure ride along it. With the front still to our west Sunday morning, temperatures will start out mild. The period of heaviest rain should be during the first half or so of Sunday as strong frontogenetic forcing will occur along and just ahead of the front. Would not completely rule out a few rumbles of thunder with some elevated instability present. Strong 50+ knot low level jet overhead could bring the potential for a localized higher wind gust if any convective elements do develop. Most areas will see rainfall amounts of three-quarters to an inch, but areas on the Tug Hill may see up to 1.25 inches or more of rainfall boosted by upslope flow.
Latest MMEFS of the GEFS and NAEFS continues to highlight only the Black River in the North Country as possibly rising to action stage, and this would not be until later in the week as this river is a slow riser.

Colder air will start to make its way into the region as the cold front eases into central and eastern New York late Sunday and Sunday night. Thermal profiles suggest a fairly sharp transition over to wet snow from west to east (first occurring for higher terrain). Most areas will see at least some wet snow accumulation by Monday morning. Lower elevations likely less than 2 inches with higher terrain having a better potential to see higher amounts. Temperatures by Monday morning should be down to near freezing or even below for most of the area. This will bring the potential for slick conditions for the Monday morning commute as residual moisture could freeze up on untreated roads along with the minor wet snow accumulation.

The wet snow on the backside of the system will exit fairly quickly on Monday. Though there will be some scattered leftover lake effect snow, at this point it appears to be light as it will be held down by limited deep moisture and less low-level cyclonic flow as ridge slips in quickly late Monday into Monday night. Does look like a seasonally cool day with a blustery NW wind within a tight surface pressure gradient. Even though winds will gust potentially to 35 mph, the wet snow will have little blowing and drifting.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
For the long term period the weather overall looks quieter than normal compared to mid December standards. POPs were limited to chance, as most of the period is uncertain among all guidance with minimal agreement on timing and intensity of any precip potential.
Current potential for passing cold front late Tuesday with some showers, both rain and snow. Behind the passing front there will be at least a chance for lake effect snow showers, especially southeast of Lake Ontario for Wednesday into Wednesday night. Guidance is hinting at a shortwave trough passing just north of the area Thursday morning, mainly increasing precip potential for the North Country, but also possibly extending the lake response southeast of Lake Ontario. Still too much uncertainty with this as well though, so keeping at chance POPs for now.

Temperatures for the long term period are expected to be near to a few degrees above normal. A quick passing ridge for Friday will bring warm air advection with temperatures aloft warming to around 5- 7C, which will increase the potential for well above normal temperatures for the day.

AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Low VFR decks have made their way into areas from the Finger Lakes west, while mainly upper level thin cirrus remain across eastern half of the area. Lower decks will continue to slowly work eastward through the evening hours ahead of a mid level shortwave trough, though CIGS are expected to remain VFR through this evening.

MVFR CIGS will be possible across the higher terrain (KJHW) second half of tonight into the start of Friday. Otherwise, expect mainly low VFR CIGS to dominate elsewhere through the first half of Friday.

Outlook...

Saturday...Mainly VFR.
Sunday...MVFR/IFR. Breezy. Rain changing to rain/snow late.
Monday...MVFR. Breezy with a chance of snow showers.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

MARINE
South/southeasterly flow will freshen some tonight into Saturday, however conditions will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the first half of the weekend. Only exception will be across the far eastern end of Lake Ontario for late Saturday through the first half Sunday when the persistent south/southeasterly flow may become strong enough to support a low end Small Craft Advisory there.

Otherwise, a low pressure system passing across the central Great Lakes into southern Canada will support the next chance of Small Craft Advisory conditions Sunday night through Monday as cold air advects into the lower Great Lakes in its wake. Winds will likely remain elevated through the middle of next week.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop




Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Buffalo, NY,