Sunrise 6:12 AM   Sunset 8:08 PM Moonrise 9:23 PM   Moonset 5:48 AM

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LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 1015 Pm Edt Wed Apr 24 2024
Rest of tonight - Northeast winds less than 10 knots. Clear.Thursday - East winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Sunny.Thursday night - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. Clear.Friday - Light and variable winds becoming east 5 to 10 knots. Sunny.Friday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers overnight. Saturday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers during the day, then a chance of showers Saturday night. Sunday - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. A chance of showers. Monday - South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers.
the water temperature off buffalo is 42 degrees.

LEZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 250744 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 344 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

SYNOPSIS
Canadian high pressure will build southeastward across our area today...before slowly drifting to the New England coastline Friday.
The high will provide us with fair dry weather through Friday...with below normal temperatures today and tonight giving way to somewhat above average readings on Friday as a southeasterly return flow of milder air overspreads our region. The warming trend will then continue over the weekend and into early next week...resulting in summerlike warmth engulfing our region both Sunday and Monday. While there will also be some showers and thunderstorms around, particularly during Saturday...a fair amount of dry time can also be expected.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Unseasonably Cold Conditions Expected Again Tonight

Sprawling Canadian surface high pressure will settle directly across our area today...then will only begrudgingly begin to drift eastward tonight. Aside from some patchy valley fog across the Southern Tier early this morning...this will result in continued fair dry weather throughout this period...along with largely clear skies. Given the cool airmass temperatures will remain solidly below normal...with today's highs struggling to get much above the mid 40s to lower 50s in most places even in spite of abundant sunshine...with the coolest readings found across the higher terrain and along the south shore of Lake Ontario...where developing onshore flow will keep things cooler
Another downright cold night will then follow tonight
with lows ranging from the lower 20s east of Lake Ontario to the mid and upper 20s across much of the rest of the area...and to around 30 close to Lake Erie.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Surface high pressure centered across New England will ridge back across our region resulting in fair and sunny weather for Friday.
After this, a trough of low pressure will track into the Western Great Lakes with an associated warm front moving across the area Saturday. 00Z model guidance is a bit slower with this, with a mid- level ridge keeping our region rain-free until late Friday night when some showers could enter far Western NY. The front will be far removed from the parent low, with a weakening trend as it moves eastward across the area Saturday into Saturday night. For Sunday, the risk for showers will mainly be instability/diurnally driven.
Hedge on the lower side of model guidance for PoPs due to the convective nature of the precipitation, especially downwind of the lakes Sunday afternoon. Following the warm frontal passage some thunder may occur Saturday night and Sunday with limited MUCAPE values less than 500 J/KG.

It will be warmer with the warm frontal passage, especially in areas near the lakeshores which benefit from a southerly downslope flow.
Highs on Friday and Saturday will mainly be in the upper 50s to mid 60s, and it could be a bit warmer than that Saturday depending on the timing of the showers. Temperatures will climb into the 70s at most locations for Sunday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
An upper level ridge axis across the area Sunday night will gradually shift to the east through mid-week. This will result in above normal temperatures and 'mostly' rain free weather for Sunday night and Monday. Monday will almost feel summer-like with highs reaching 80F at many locations.

As a surface low marches toward Quebec Monday night through Tuesday, its attendant surface cold front will approach the region from the west and then cross from west to east. Initially expect some thunderstorms ahead of the front's arrival Monday night and then rain showers with the front's passage Tuesday. Additionally with the front's passage Tuesday, expect temperatures to be cooler than Sunday and Monday with highs ranging in the upper 60s to low 70s, though still well above average for the end of April. A secondary cold front will then cross the area from north to south Wednesday supporting a small chance for a few rain showers.

AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Canadian high pressure centered north of Georgian Bay will build directly overhead today...before slowly drifting east to eastern New York and western New England tonight. Aside from some patchy valley fog and attendant localized reductions across the Southern Tier early this morning...this will guarantee fair dry weather and unlimited VFR conditions right through the TAF period.

Outlook...

Friday...VFR.

Saturday...VFR/MVFR with some showers likely and an isolated thunderstorm possible.

Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE
Sprawling high pressure centered north of Georgian Bay will continue to build across our region today...before slowly drifting east to eastern New York and western New England tonight. This will provide our region with fair dry weather and light to modest winds through tonight...with local lake breeze circulations developing on Lake Ontario during the course of today and resulting in winds there turning locally onshore around 10 knots. Meanwhile on Lake Erie northeasterly winds of 10-15 knots are expected today...resulting in some chop even though conditions will remain below advisory criteria.

On Friday the surface high will slide east to the New England coastline...with a general easterly to east-northeasterly flow continuing across the Lower Great Lakes. On Lake Ontario winds will be more easterly...and could become strong enough to bring some marginal SCA conditions to the southwestern shore of the lake during the afternoon.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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