Tuesday, February18, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Corfu, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 5:48PM Tuesday February 18, 2020 3:06 AM EST (08:06 UTC) Moonrise 3:51AMMoonset 1:04PM Illumination 29% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 948 Pm Est Mon Feb 17 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from 5 am est Tuesday through Tuesday evening...
Overnight..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Snow and rain showers. Rain and snow late.
Tuesday..South winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. Rain.
Tuesday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy.
Wednesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers in the morning.
Wednesday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy.
Thursday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Mainly clear.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mainly clear, then becoming partly cloudy. The water temperature off buffalo is 34 degrees.
LEZ020 Expires:202002181015;;702771 FZUS51 KBUF 180248 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 948 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ020-181015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Corfu, NY
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location: 42.89, -78.38     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 180528 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1228 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2020

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure will move from the central Great Lakes late tonight to southern Quebec Tuesday. Wet snow will overspread the area from west to east late tonight, quickly changing to rain across Western New York on Tuesday as temperatures warm. The wet snow will last longer east of Lake Ontario with several inches of accumulation Tuesday morning before mixing with rain in the afternoon. Colder air will then move back into the region Wednesday through Thursday with some lake effect snow southeast of the lakes.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/. Radar imagery showing plenty of returns across Western NY, but surface obs show little of this reaching the ground just yet with 00Z KBUF sounding showing plenty of low level dry air in place. Eventually though, large scale lift from approaching shortwave and right entrance jet forcing will overcome the low-levels and precip will break out by 08z/3 AM over western NY, by 10z/5 AM in the Finger Lakes and shortly thereafter east of Lake Ontario. Once the precip arrives, larger scale lift mentioned supplemented by persistent H85 moisture transport on nose of 50-65kt low-level jet will support a 6-9 hour period of steady precipitation, tapering by late morning over western NY and not until mid to late afternoon east of Lake Ontario. Other than undercutting latest GFS guidance with overall qpf and also taking a bit off NAM and high res guidance qpf due to upslope lifting east of Lake Ontario on the Tug Hill, good consensus is present with timing and qpf amounts.

Ptype remains a challenge with the system, but we'll break down how is looks at this time. Based on model soundings and a slightly deepening sfc low tracking northwest and north of here later tonight into Tuesday morning, still prefer a rather quick change over from snow to rain over western NY, including the Buffalo metro area. This will occur first along the Lake Erie shore where the ptype may just start as rain right away. Thankfully, there really is no warm layer aloft in play here, so it looks like blyr warming snow to rain scenario with limited mixed precip. Could be a very brief period of sleet or freezing rain, but both ptypes were too minimal in extent and/or duration to include in the grids/forecast. Snow will take a bit longer to turn to rain at ROC and across the Finger Lakes, but it should happen shortly after daybreak Tuesday and snow amounts of 2-3 inches at the most precludes issuing any additional advisories right now. Finally, the cold air hangs in longest east of Lake Ontario on the higher terrain of the Tug Hill. More of a snow ptype here with several inches of snow expected as SLRs peak around climo of 16:1. As it looked like last day or so, max snowfall occurs in the upslope areas of Tug Hill in Lewis county. Though edges of Oswego and Jefferson could see isold advy amounts, it was not enough in extent to expand our going winter weather advisory.

Ptype and snow is not the only issue though with this system as very strong low-level jet leads to some wind issues as well. Upshot is thought the NAM was too strong with its low-level jet topping out over 70 kts from Finger Lakes to the eastern Lake Ontario region. Blend of higher NAM with more toned down, but still strong (50-60 kts) GFS and Canadian, resulted in near wind advisory gusts late tonight near Lake Erie and over the higher terrain west and north of the Finger Lakes. Enough confidence that wind gusts could at least reach 45 mph if not higher in the downslope areas off the Tug Hill late tonight through much of Tuesday to go ahead and issue a wind advisory for Lewis and Jefferson counties. Timing of two hazards (wind and snow) appear too different to wrap the wind hazard into the going advisory headline for winter weather. Expect the strong winds to continue even beyond when warmer air changes the snow to rain early Tuesday afternoon.

Finally, colder air arriving from the west later Tuesday afternoon will begin to allow the rain to mix back with snow over the higher terrain of western NY. Eventually all areas switch back to snow on Tuesday night.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. Tuesday evening there will be some lingering showers as low pressure tracks across southern Quebec. Initially it will not be cold enough to support lake effect snow, with forecast thermal profiles suggesting that there will even be some rain mixed in across lower elevations Tuesday evening. Also, precipitation will be light, since it will be driven by modest upsloping and an approaching shortwave. The shortwave will push a cold front across the region late Tuesday night, and this will drop 850mb temperatures down to -12 to -14c by daybreak Wednesday. This combined with some limited moisture with the shortwave will cause lake effect snow to develop late in the night and into Wednesday morning. By the time it cools enough for the lake effect snow to blossom, the flow will be WNW and this will quickly shift to the NW. Although temperatures aloft will cool even more during the day Wednesday the moisture will get stripped away by Wednesday afternoon resulting in limited lake activity.

The steadiest snows will be late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning southeast of Lake Ontario. It's difficult to tell if the flow will be too strong for a singular band to develop. If there is no organized banding, then expect a generic 2-3 inches east/southeast of Lake Ontario during this time. If banding does develop, locally higher amounts will occur. The northwest flow is likely to produce multi- banded, disorganized lake snows east of Lake Erie, with limited accumulation. Elsewhere, expect mostly cloudy conditions with scattered snow showers. Highs on Wednesday will be in the mid to upper 20s.

The greatest potential for significant snow accumulation is southeast of Lake Ontario late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. A subtle secondary shortwave will move across the region during this time, and provide additional moisture which may be enhanced by Lake Superior and Lake Huron. By this time 850mb temperatures will be down to about -18c which is plenty cold enough to support lake effect, and is also likely to support a fluffy snow with 20:1 snow/liquid ratios. Equilibrium levels will also rise to 7-8k feet which will support deeper moisture and heavier snowfall rates.

The main forecast question is if a singular convergence band will develop across Lake Ontario. 12Z NAM/GFS/GGEM guidance all at least hint at this in wind fields, but are not terribly impressive in QPF fields. This said, lower resolution model guidance cannot be expected to resolve a singular band. There is not ample confidence to issue a Watch at this point, but the main area of concern is Wayne, northern Cayuga, and southwestern Oswego counties. Northern portions of Orleans and Monroe counties will also have to be monitored. We would like to see additional runs support this, since even a slight shift in wind profiles could move or disrupt banding all together.

Elsewhere, expect fairly generic snow showers with generally light snow accumulations. Whatever band does develop by Thursday morning will weaken as it drops southward Thursday afternoon. Either way, Thursday will be a cold day with highs ranging from the teens to lower 20s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Lake effect snows southeast of the lakes will dwindle off throughout the day on Friday as warm and dry air will be advected into the region by an area of broad high pressure. The lake snows off of Lake Ontario will last further into the day than the snows off of Lake Erie which should subside Friday morning. The aforementioned area of broad high pressure looks to remain overhead Friday night into Sunday resulting in a gradual warming trend with dry conditions.

The next possibilities for precipitation come into the picture Sunday afternoon through Monday as a cold front sweeps east through the region. Primarily this precipitation should fall as rain on Sunday, while switching over and remaining as snow overnight Sunday into Monday.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Snow will overspread Western NY from 07Z-09Z with VSBY quickly dropping to IFR, and CIGS to MVFR. The snow will only last for a few hours before changing to rain as temperatures warm. Areas close to Lake Erie will change to rain first, followed by areas farther east during the morning hours. Once precipitation changes to rain, VSBY will improve to MVFR and VFR. Southeast downslope flow will help to keep CIGS in the MVFR or even VFR range across the lower elevations, with IFR developing across higher terrain through the morning hours.

East of Lake Ontario, snow will develop by early morning and snow will last for a little longer period of time with widespread IFR VSBY and MVFR CIGS through the morning. Precipitation will then change to rain in the afternoon, especially across the lower elevations with VSBY improving to MVFR and VFR.

The rain will then end from west to east during the afternoon, with MVFR CIGS continuing. A strong low level jet will initially produce strong low level wind shear through the early morning. Winds will then partially mix to the surface, with gusty winds through the day Tuesday. Gusts of 25 to 35 knots will be common, with a few sporadic gusts to 40 knots possible.

Outlook . Wednesday and Thursday . Mainly VFR, except for localized IFR conditions in lake snows southeast of the lakes. Friday and Saturday . VFR conditions.

MARINE. Low pressure will move from central lower Michigan late tonight to southern Quebec by late Tuesday. A strong low level jet ahead of the system will support fairly strong southerly winds late tonight and Tuesday morning, becoming southwest Tuesday afternoon and then westerly by Wednesday. This will support an extended period of Small Craft Advisory conditions on Lakes Erie and Ontario starting late tonight and lasting through at least Wednesday night.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 5 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ007-008. Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 3 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ008. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 7 PM EST Wednesday for LOZ043>045. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST Wednesday for LOZ042.



SYNOPSIS . Hitchcock/JLA/TMA NEAR TERM . Apffel/Hitchcock/JLA/TMA SHORT TERM . Apffel LONG TERM . EAJ AVIATION . Hitchcock MARINE . Apffel/Hitchcock/TMA


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 27 mi49 min 34°F 34°F1018.3 hPa22°F
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 36 mi55 min 29°F 1019.3 hPa
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 36 mi67 min E 11 G 13 29°F 1021.7 hPa (-3.0)
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 38 mi55 min 38°F 1017.5 hPa
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 48 mi55 min 28°F 1021.8 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 49 mi67 min SSE 7 G 11 29°F

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport, NY19 mi73 minE 42.00 miLight Snow31°F26°F82%1020.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBUF

Wind History from BUF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW7N7NE7N6N6N6N7NE4NE5NE3SE3CalmE4E9E10E11E10E9E7NE9E6E6E4SE9
1 day agoSW13SW17
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2 days agoS8S6S8S8S7S12S16SW16SW17
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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