Monday, August19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
South Milwaukee, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:00AMSunset 7:49PM Monday August 19, 2019 10:41 PM CDT (03:41 UTC) Moonrise 10:03PMMoonset 9:47AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ645 North Point Light To Wind Point Wi- 905 Pm Cdt Mon Aug 19 2019
Rest of tonight..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots becoming east after midnight, then rising to 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Mostly clear. Waves around 1 foot.
Tuesday..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots rising to 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon, then becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the day. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday night..South wind 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots late in the evening, then veering west after midnight becoming west 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots veering north late in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the afternoon.
LMZ645 Expires:201908201000;;493949 FZUS53 KMKX 200206 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 905 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ645-201000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Milwaukee, WI
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location: 42.93, -87.79     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 200152
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
852 pm cdt Mon aug 19 2019

Update
No changes needed to the current forecast. Tonight will be quiet.

The hrrr is trending a bit farther south with the convection
expected to move into iowa later tonight. We could still see the
northern tail of the complex clip the wi il border area Tuesday
morning. But, we'll just have to see how it evolves overnight.

Marine
High pressure will bring light winds to lake michigan through most
of Tuesday. A cold front will push through the area Tuesday night,
resulting in winds shifting to the north and increasing to modest
levels for Wednesday into Wednesday night. High pressure settles
across the area again by Thursday, bringing a return to a rather
light wind regime for the remainder of the week.

Prev discussion (issued 614 pm cdt Mon aug 19 2019)
update...

no change to the forecast reasoning for tonight into Tuesday.

The genesis region for the late night early Tue morning
convection that could clip southwest wi will be over the NE sd ia
intersection. That development will begin by mid to late evening.

The 18z nam GFS and latest hrrr run suggest it will largely miss
our forecast area to the south and west.

Aviation(00z tafs)...

high pressure across the area will bring light winds and partly
cloudy skies for much of the night. This could lead to some fog
after 06z tue, especially in the low lying areas. Any fog will
clear out quickly by 13z tue. A complex of thunderstorms moving
across ia later tonight could clip southwest wi as they move se.

These will likely miss the southern wi TAF sites. Overall, look
forVFR conditions through the TAF period. The exception will be
with any fog later tonight.

Prev discussion... (issued 331 pm cdt Mon aug 19 2019)
short term...

tonight through Tuesday night... Forecast confidence is medium.

Will continue dry forecast across the far south late this
afternoon and evening. More agitated cumulus farther south over
northern illinois where scattered convection is developing west
and southwest of chicago along main instability axis. Short term
guidance in reasonable agreement on deeper moisture return and
strengthening low level jet resulting in thunderstorm development
in the northern plains overnight. This low level jet weakens
Tuesday as it pivots to the east across eastern ia into northern
il. NAM remains outlier with stronger low level winds briefly
affecting southern wi. However both NAM and ECMWF show possible
convectively induced MCV taking more northern track across the
wi il border area during the morning and aftn. Hence wl continue
low to mid-range chance pops spreading across southern parts of
the area Tuesday morning. Small chance for convection across the
area in the afternoon and again later Tuesday night as weakening
cold front moves south through wisconsin. Forecast soundings show
strong capping in place Tuesday afternoon so kept only schc pops
going for the peak heating period.

Long term...

Wednesday through Friday night... Forecast confidence is high.

Drier and cooler air will be building over the area for the
latter half of the work week. This is due to northerly flow along
with a few reinforcing shortwave trough axises rotating in from
the north Wednesday and Thursday. Highs will be in the 70s with
only low to mid 70s expected for Thursday and Friday. Lows
overnight will be in the 50s with low 60s along the lake.

Saturday through Monday... Forecast confidence is medium.

The weekend will start out on the dry side with temperatures
gradually warming as winds become more southerly. This wind shift
will also help bring moisture to the area and eventually bring
rain and thunderstorm chances back into the forecast. An upper
level trough seen at 250mb and 500mb is expected to swing through
for the start of next week. The exact timing of this wave is
uncertain with solutions bringing in chances late Sunday night or
Monday night. Expect the forecast for this period to change over
the next few days as confidence increases.

Aviation(21z tafs)... Patchy fog may affect parts of southern wi
later tonight before thickening clouds move in from the west.

Better chance for fog will be in the south where dewpoints have
remained in the 60s. Still thinking morning thunderstorms may
brush parts of the south Tuesday morning.

Marine... Lighter winds will continue tonight into Tuesday
morning. Some increase in south to southeast winds are expected
later Tuesday ahead of approaching cold front. This front will
move across the lake later Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

North to northwest wind gusts in its wake look to remain below 25
kts Wednesday into Thursday.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... None.

Update... Davis
tonight Tuesday and aviation marine... Davis
Tuesday night through Monday... Rar


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 24 mi42 min Calm G 1.9 73°F 1016.3 hPa (+1.1)
45187 30 mi42 min SW 1.9 G 1.9 78°F 74°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 32 mi62 min Calm G 1.9 72°F 1017.6 hPa
45186 39 mi42 min Calm G 1.9 74°F 75°F
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 44 mi42 min E 5.8 G 7.8 74°F 75°F1016.7 hPa71°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI6 mi1.8 hrsSSE 410.00 miPartly Cloudy73°F68°F84%1015.6 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI12 mi1.8 hrsSE 310.00 miFair74°F68°F82%1016.2 hPa
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI19 mi1.9 hrsN 010.00 miClear73°F62°F69%1016.3 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI22 mi87 minSSE 310.00 miFair68°F62°F83%1016.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMKE

Wind History from MKE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4------W3----N5NW5Calm--NE5--5E5--SE8--SE11SE9SE9SE8SE5S4
1 day agoS5S4S4S4S4--S5S7S6S6----S7S17
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2 days agoW6--W5--W3Calm--S3NW3W3--SW4SW6NW3S6SE11SE14SE9SE12----S5S6S5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.