Saturday, January16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Kenmore, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:41AMSunset 5:09PM Saturday January 16, 2021 3:36 AM EST (08:36 UTC) Moonrise 10:11AMMoonset 8:59PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 952 Pm Est Fri Jan 15 2021
Rest of tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Rain with snow likely.
Saturday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. Mostly cloudy.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Snow showers likely overnight.
Sunday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers.
Sunday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers in the evening, then snow showers overnight.
Monday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Snow showers.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Snow showers likely during the day, then a chance of snow showers Tuesday night.
Wednesday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Mostly cloudy. The water temperature off buffalo is 36 degrees.
LEZ020 Expires:202101161015;;982968 FZUS51 KBUF 160252 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 952 PM EST Fri Jan 15 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ020-161015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kenmore, NY
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location: 42.94, -78.84     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 160650 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 150 AM EST Sat Jan 16 2021

SYNOPSIS. A large storm system moving across the region will generate some accumulating wet snow over the Eastern Lake Ontario region on Saturday . then as the system exits across New England during the second half of the weekend . lake enhanced snows will become more widespread. Most areas will pick up an inch or so of accumulation by Sunday night while the Tug Hill region could see well over a foot of snow. A more wintry pattern will then support frequent snow showers and lower temperatures for the first half of the new work week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/. A mature storm system will continue to lumber to the east across the Ohio Valley overnight while pushing an associated sfc occlusion across our forecast area. Widespread rain and areas of wet snow will be found ahead of the occlusion . mainly east of the Genesee valley. drier air in the wake of the occlusion has already shut down the steady pcpn over the far western counties.

During the day Saturday . the large vertically stacked system will ease across our forecast area. The aforementioned occlusion will continue its eastward push into New England. While the pcpn from the low level forcing will taper off over the Finger Lakes region . upslope will combine with the residual forcing from the occlusion to keep widespread wet snow falling over the Eastern Lake Ontario region. Accumulations of 3 to 5 inches will be possible across the Tug with lesser amounts over the remainder of the North Country. For the western counties . Saturday will feature a wealth of clouds with temperatures remaining above seasonal normals.

The large storm system will push across New England Saturday night. Marginally cold air in its wake will encourage lake enhanced snow showers to be found east of both lakes. Nighttime snowfall is forecast to range from an inch or two across the Southern Tier and Upper Genesee Valley to 5 to 8 inches across the Tug Hill.

The slow moving upper level storm will move across the Canadian maritimes on Sunday . while thermal troughing extending back across Lake Ontario will help to focus lake enhanced snows over the southern half of the Tug and Oswego county. Snow showers will become somewhat more widespread across the western counties during the course of the day . with lake enhanced snows accumulating as much as a few inches over the Southern Tier.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Sunday night, a boundary/wave draped from west to east along Lake Ontario will still be in place Sunday night into early Monday. This will provide the focus for snow to continue to fall over the southern half of Lake Ontario, and extend inland into Oswego County and to the Tug Hill Sunday evening, dropping south early Monday. Lake enhancement along with the forcing from the wave will be the driving factor with the band of snow. 850H temps on Sunday night over and east of Lake Ontario will be in the -7C to -9C range. Snowfall of around 1 to 2 inches will be possible along the south shore and southeast of Lake Ontario and 1 to 3 inches (with some isolated higher amounts) will be possible for portions of Central and Southern Erie County into Western Wyoming County as winds off Lake Erie look to bring the greatest lake enhanced snow. Other areas across WNY can expect up to around an inch or two for Sunday night. Temperatures Sunday night will be in the upper teens to low 20s for the North COuntry, and in the mid 20s south of Lake Ontario.

This band will continue to slowly drop south as a mid and upper level trough approaches the area. The trough, over the Ohio Valley Sunday evening tracks east toward New England through the day on Monday. As the trough approaches from the west, additional snow showers will develop east of Lake Erie during the day on Monday due to the forcing from the approaching trough, lake enhancement, and upslope flow over the higher terrain south of Buffalo. Northwest flow will continue to keep the potential for lake snow showers along the south shore of Lake Ontario through most of the afternoon on Monday until the trough passes to the east of the area. Snowfall for Monday will be greatest over WNY, where a lake response with upstream connection over Niagara County potentially causes 2 to 3 inches, and for the higher terrain east of Lake Erie where 1 to 2 inches of snow falls. Outside of these areas mentioned, generally a half to one inch of snow can be expected, especially south of Lake Ontario. Highs on Monday will be in the low to mid 20s for the North Country, and in the mid 20s to near 30 for areas south of Lake Ontario.

Monday night, lake enhancement east of Lake Erie will continue along a boundary slowly moving south, but snow showers in general will be possible for most locations south of Lake Ontario through the night. Lows on Monday night will be in the upper single digits to low teens for the North COuntry and in the low to mid 20s south of Lake Ontario.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. A clipper will track southeast out of the Upper Great Lakes Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night, providing the potential for a widespread snowfall across the area. Behind the passing system, 850H temps -10C or cooler. This will provide the opportunity for a lake response off of both lakes for Wednesday, but synoptic moisture as of right now looks minimal, so any lake response looks weak with light snow.

Another area of low pressure will track from the Upper Great Lakes to the St. Lawrence Valley from Thursday morning through Friday afternoon, providing another chance for snow showers across the area.

Temperatures will be in the low to mid 20s for the North Country and in the upper 20s to mid 30s for areas south of Lake Ontario. Wednesday will be chilly in the upper teens to low 20s for the North Country and in the mid 20s to low 30s south of Lake Ontario.

AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. For the 06Z TAFS MVFR/IFR flight conditions are becoming widespread as an occluded front pushes across the TAF airfields. Behind this front, a dry slot will push its way into WNY, bringing a return to VFR flight conditions early to the Southern Tier (KJHW) and by mid morning for KBUF, KIAG and KROC. As this front slows, prolonged IFR or lower flight conditions are expected for KART in both low ceiling heights and visibility as snow develops.

For this afternoon most of WNY will remain VFR.

This evening as colder air returns across the Eastern Great Lakes lake effect snow will develop. Initially these snows will be multibanded across the southwestern portions of NYS, with brief periods of IFR flight conditions (JHW) becoming more prolonged after 06Z. Through the night a single band plume of snow will orient east of Lake Ontario and bring IFR and lower flight conditions through the night, including for KART.

Outlook .

Sunday . MVFR/IFR, restrictions likely in snow showers east of both lakes. Monday through Wednesday . MVFR/IFR possible in scattered snow showers east of both lakes.

MARINE. There will then be a relative lull in winds later overnight through most of Saturday. Low pressure moving north through western New England will then deepen and reach Maine on Sunday. Westerly winds will increase in its wake, with solid Small Craft Advisory conditions on Lakes Erie and Ontario from late Saturday through Sunday night.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Sunday for NYZ006>008. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . RSH NEAR TERM . RSH SHORT TERM . Hitchcock/SW LONG TERM . SW AVIATION . Thomas MARINE . HSK/RSH


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 5 mi48 min S 6 G 8 36°F 38°F1004.3 hPa23°F
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 13 mi48 min 34°F 1004.3 hPa
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 20 mi48 min 32°F 1004 hPa
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 28 mi36 min SSW 5.1 G 8 35°F 1005.1 hPa (-0.3)
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 41 mi36 min SSE 6 G 7 33°F 1004.3 hPa (-0.9)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport, NY6 mi42 minSSW 310.00 miMostly Cloudy34°F32°F92%1004 hPa
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY13 mi43 minSSW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy33°F31°F92%1004.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBUF

Wind History from BUF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE11E9E7E7E9SE11SE12SE11E8SE8E12E10E8E7S11
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1 day agoSW10W10W8W8W5W4SW4SW5SW6SW8SW7SW7W5S3SE4E3E6E5E4E6E6E6E7E10
2 days agoS11S12S13S11S10S10SW12SW13SW14
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.