Thursday, July29, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Kenmore, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:02AMSunset 8:41PM Thursday July 29, 2021 5:19 AM EDT (09:19 UTC) Moonrise 10:51PMMoonset 10:57AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 122 Am Edt Thu Jul 29 2021
Overnight..Light and variable winds. Partly cloudy.
Thursday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Thursday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. A chance of showers in the evening.
Friday..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest. A chance of showers in the morning.
Friday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. Mainly clear.
Saturday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers Saturday night.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. Showers likely during the day, then a chance of showers Sunday night.
Monday..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Becoming mainly clear. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off buffalo is 72 degrees.
LEZ020 Expires:202107290930;;625119 FZUS51 KBUF 290522 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 122 AM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ020-290930-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kenmore, NY
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location: 42.94, -78.84     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 290531 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 131 AM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure across the region will maintain dry weather overnight. A cold front will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday, with some showers possible through Friday morning. Cooler weather will prevail Friday and Saturday as high pressure builds back across the area.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/. High pressure crossing New England will provide fair weather overnight. Mid and high clouds will increase from the west overnight. The coolest temperatures will be east of Lake Ontario, since this is where clear skies will last the longest.

A mid level trough will dig across the region on Thursday, which will lead to increasing chances for showers and possibly a thunderstorm. A complex surface map, with majority of guidance bringing a convectively generated wave across Ohio which may clip part of the area Thursday morning. Majority of 12z high res guidance in the HREF suite and recent runs of the HRRR indicate remnants of this convection could follow H85-H3 thicknesses/edge of higher instability and move into southwest NYS by 12-13z/8-9 AM. Upscale convection has developed last couple hours over upper Lakes, but based on where most vigorous convection is attm, think stronger part of this line of storms may end up staying well to west of our area as it heads more south-southeast into better instability.

However, showers and some embedded thunder are quickly spreading into eastern Upper Michigan and northern Lower Michigan. Starting to think this activity, at least in diminishing form, tied to leading shortwave may be what models show moving into western NY on Thursday morning. Radar trends overnight will hold key for how convection evolves over our region on Thursday. Though diurnal heating may support some instability with showers and possibly a thunderstorm on Thursday, more likely than not, any severe weather would remain to our south, with most recent SPC day2 outlook keeping the marginal risk just south of the NY/PA border.

There may be some lake/upslope enhanced showers south of the lakes Thursday night. Otherwise, temperatures will average below normal with highs in the 70s on Thursday and lows in the mid 50s to around 60 on Thursday night.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. With 850mb temps dropping into the 6-7C range by Friday morning, some pesky lake effect/upslope rain showers will linger through the morning. Surface high pressure then builds into the central Great Lakes by afternoon, with associated subsidence bringing an end to any leftover showers and giving way for a dry afternoon. Though the summer sun will be shining, temperatures will be about 10 degrees below average, with highs around 70 across lower elevations and mid 60s for higher terrain.

High pressure centered over the Ohio Valley and central Great Lakes Friday night will maintain dry conditions and northwest flow across our region. Some lake effect clouds may develop southeast of the lakes overnight, but low inversion heights should prevent any lake effect rain showers. Overnight temperatures will fall into the low to mid 50s across the lake plains and mid/upper 40s for the interior Southern Tier and North Country.

The upper level pattern across North America will continue to amplify moving into the weekend, with a sharp ridge axis centered on the Rockies and an unseasonably deep downstream longwave trough in eastern North America. This will keep temperatures below average over the weekend. High pressure shifts eastward across NY/PA Saturday, maintaining dry weather through the day. Rain chances increase from northwest to southeast Saturday night as a shortwave rounds the base of the longwave trough, bringing with it an area of surface low pressure across the Great Lakes and New England. Extra cloud cover late Saturday night will help moderate overnight temperatures some, with lows in the low 60s and upper 50s across the Lake Plains, with low to mid 50s elsewhere.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Strong consensus that vigorous shortwave will drop across Lower Great Lakes on Sunday. Have bumped pops to high likely for showers and possible thunderstorms . very unsettled to end the weekend. Temps to struggle to get out of the 60s.

Showers wind down in coverage Sunday night as shortwave exits across srn New England.

While leftover showers will be possible across the North Country early Monday . large sfc high should promote fair dry weather Monday through Wednesday. Temps will slowly moderate through the period.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. High pressure will provide mainly VFR flight conditions overnight. Mid-level clouds will move in which will diminish the potential for fog across the Southern Tier. Showers will spread into the area Thursday morning, with possibly a thunderstorm. Increasing moisture will lead to lowering cigs with MVFR possible at KJHW by Thursday morning.

Increasing chances for showers and possibly a thunderstorm Thursday afternoon, with MVFR cigs.

Outlook .

Thursday night . lowering cigs with IFR/MVFR restrictions. Friday . MVFR/VFR. A chance of showers with lingering clouds south of the lakes. Saturday . VFR. Sunday . MVFR. Showers likely. Monday . VFR.

MARINE. Marine headlines are not expected until Thursday night into Friday, due to the passage of another cold front. Lake temp/850mb delta Ts increase to near 15C late Friday and Friday night, but relatively low equilibrium level suggest a low but non-zero risk for waterspouts during that time period. Confidence too low to include in the forecast for now.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . Apffel/TMA NEAR TERM . Apffel/JLA/TMA SHORT TERM . Hitchcock/PP LONG TERM . RSH AVIATION . Apffel/TMA MARINE . Apffel/TMA


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 5 mi49 min SE 1.9 G 2.9 70°F 76°F1012.9 hPa57°F
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 13 mi49 min 66°F 1014.3 hPa
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 20 mi49 min 65°F 1014 hPa
45142 - Port Colborne 28 mi19 min S 12 G 14 72°F 73°F1 ft1013 hPa (-0.5)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 28 mi79 min S 7 G 8.9 64°F 1014.6 hPa (-1.0)
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 41 mi79 min SSE 8 G 11 69°F 1013.7 hPa (-1.5)
45139 - West Lake Ontario - Grimsby 42 mi19 min S 5.8 G 7.8 72°F 71°F1012.4 hPa (-1.0)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport, NY6 mi25 minSE 310.00 miFair64°F57°F78%1013.5 hPa
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY13 mi26 minESE 310.00 miFair63°F57°F81%1013.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBUF

Wind History from BUF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5E3E5E8E6E6NE5NE9
G14
E8E8N5NE7E7NE5NE7NE4E6SE7SE4SE6SE8SE7S5SE3
1 day agoS6S6SW9SW12SW15N13
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W12N7N5NE5W5NE4E4S3E3SE5CalmNE5E4
2 days agoS4S3SW5SW6SW7SW8SW7SW8SW8W10W5W10SW11SW9SW10SW11SW9SW8SW4SW7S7SW6S3Calm

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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