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LMZ645 North Point Light To Wind Point Wi- 305 Pm Cst Mon Dec 11 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from 9 pm cst this evening through Tuesday evening...
Through early evening..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Tonight..Southwest wind 10 to 20 knots becoming 15 to 20 knots late in the evening, then becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots after midnight veering west early in the morning. Gusts up to 25 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the late evening and early morning, then subsiding to 1 to 2 feet early in the morning.
Tuesday..West wind 15 to 20 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the late morning and early afternoon, then subsiding to 1 to 2 feet late in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..West wind 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots after midnight, then backing west early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday..West wind 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
wave heights are for ice free areas.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 112004 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 204 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

KEY MESSAGES
- Quiet weather expected much of the week ahead.
- Watching a system that models currently have pushing through late in the week.

SHORT TERM
(Issued 200 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2023)

Tonight through Tuesday night:

Low clouds have pushed out faster than expected bringing sun across most of southern WI. There is a low pressure system that is tracking through central Canada that is currently bring southwest flow to the region, becoming breezy tonight. The associated front will push through later tonight with west to northwest winds behind it. However this will be a dry front/system for our CWA as there is no moisture in the low levels with the front and most of the upper level forcing will be too far north. Some mid to upper level clouds will be possible tonight

Into Tuesday expect largely clear skies as strong high pressure from the west builds into the region. This high pressure will continue to strengthen overhead into tonight.

Kuroski

LONG TERM
(Issued 200 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2023)

Wednesday through Monday:

Strong high pressure will persist Wednesday and only gradually pushing out through the day Thursday with very strong ridging persistent through Thursday and even into Friday. This will also bring more mild temperatures with it as well. Finally Friday we will likely see things start to change as the ridge slides east with some shortwave activity pushing in with the trough to the west. While much of Friday may remain dry by Friday evening some semblance of a system will likely (50-60%) push through.

There remains a lot of uncertainty with this system but some potentially mixy precip is possible (30-40%) though precip is hedging toward the rain side of things. Better moisture in the column along with some forcing should allow for some precip in the region, assuming the track of the system remains similar.
Definitely some uncertainty as to how low the system sticks around but by late Saturday into Sunday the system should slide out. While Sunday and Monday largely look dry there looks to be a few systems to the north that could drag a few cold fronts through the region. While the fronts appear mostly dry for southern WI as of right now, models tend to be too dry that far out, so some moisture could bring some precip chances for the beginning of next week.

Kuroski

AVIATION
(Issued 200 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2023)

MVFR CIGS have slid out/dissipated faster than expected and have returned to VFR conditions for much of southern WI. Southwest winds expected through this evening becoming breezy at times until the front comes through later tonight. Some mid to upper level CIGS are expected with the front. Behind the front expect west to northwest winds, being a bit breezy but gradually decreasing through the day Tuesday. Otherwise expect mostly clear conditions Tuesday.

Kuroski

MARINE
(Issued 200 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2023)

High pressure along the southern Ohio River Valley this afternoon will strengthen into tonight as the low pressure in central Canada tracks east. Southwest winds will gradually increase into tonight as the pressure gradient strengthens between the strengthening high to the southeast and the low to the north. A Gale Warning has been issued for the north half of the lake tonight with a Small Craft Advisory in effect for the nearshore areas (continuing through Tuesday evening).

The winds will veer to west northwest behind the front late tonight and remain brisk for Tuesday and Tuesday night but remain below gale force. Modest westerly winds are expected for Wednesday as high pressure sets up across the region. This high pressure will strengthen and as it moves to the east Thursday into Friday another strong pressure gradient will set up between the exiting high and lower pressure to the north and west, potentially bringing another period of gales for the north parts of the lake and a period of Small Craft conditions as well for the nearshore areas.

Kuroski

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM
Gale Warning
LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565- LMZ567-LMZ868...9 PM Monday to 6 AM Tuesday.

Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...9 PM Monday to midnight Wednesday.

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