Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for University at Buffalo, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
The potential for a few showers with some embedded thunderstorms will continue this afternoon as a shortwave trough tracks near the area. Otherwise mainly dry and warm weather with the area in the warm sector of an approaching system. Temperatures this afternoon in the mid 60s to mid 70s for much of the area.

Mainly dry for the evening before showers with some thunderstorms fill in across the area overnight as another warm front tracks across the region. As the the sfc low tracks across the central Great Lakes and into western Quebec through the night, and as moisture increases, shower coverage will continue to increase as well. The lack of daytime heating will help limit thunderstorms some, but there is expected to be enough instability to support at least the chance for some embedded thunderstorms. Rainfall tonight of around a tenth to a third of an inch will be possible for much of the area, with the greatest amounts down near the NY/PA line.
Temperatures will remain mild tonight in the mid 50s to low 60s.

Saturday, showers and embedded thunderstorms continue through the morning hours, slowly shifting southeast as the cold front associated with the system starts to push east-southeast across the area. Another tenth to third of an inch of rainfall will be possible, with the greatest amounts expected for areas east of Lake Ontario. Temperatures will reach peak values during the late morning and early afternoon hours ahead of the cold frontal passage.
Temperatures will warm to the mid 60s to low 70s for most of the area ahead of the cold front. If the front is a bit slower than expected, then temperatures may warm a bit more than expected. Gusty winds will be possible ahead of and along the cold front, with gusts of 30 to 40 mph possible, with the highest values expected for the higher terrain south of Lake Ontario.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Surface high pressure will push frontal boundary and associated moisture southward Saturday night, leaving our region dry for Easter Sunday
NBM Max Temperature spread for Sunday is small
with high confidence in temperatures under a mostly sunny sky ranging from the upper 40s near Lake Ontario...to upper 50s near the State line.

Monday there is a greater spread in NBM Max Temperature spread across the Lake Plain and SLV, likely due to the strength of the southerly downslope flow and amount of precipitation/moisture Monday morning (WNY), and early afternoon (SLV) with a warm front. A stronger downslope flow, and drier warm frontal passage may warm the lake plain and SLV greater than forecasted, potentially into the low/mid 70s (lake plain) and mid 60s (SLV). A wedge of instability Monday afternoon and evening, behind the warm front and ahead of a cold front may allow for thunderstorms across much of our region, with highest chances for SW NYS. Showers then taper down the remainder of Monday night with the passage of the cold front, though a westerly breeze remains.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Cold front will clear east of western and northcentral NY Tuesday morning, with just a few lingering scattered light rain showers possible across our eastern zones before midday. Cold air advection within weak cyclonic flow aloft will help to mix elevated winds off the deck to the surface, with daytime heating only further aiding the transport of stronger winds aloft to the surface during the late morning/afternoon hours. Strongest wind gusts will be felt across areas east/northeast of the lakes, where gusts to 30-40 mph will be common, with 25-30 mph elsewhere.

High pressure then builds across the area providing mainly dry weather and much lighter winds for the Tuesday night through Thursday timeframe, although a weak mid level shortwave passing by to the north may just graze our area Thursday, so can't rule out a passing shower during the day. Fair amount of discrepancy toward the tail end of the period within the 18/12Z operational guidance package with regard to the approach of the next system, thus NBM/ensemble guidance PoPs in the slight to low Chc range seem a good compromise for the last day of the work week.

Daytime highs will be a bit below average to start the period, trending to above average for the latter half of the period.

AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A few shower with some embedded thunder is possible this afternoon associated with a shortwave quickly racing east. It will also become quite breezy by this afternoon, with southerly wind gusts up to 30 knots. Otherwise mainly VFR conditions for area terminals today.

A secondary warm front will track across the region overnight and its associated sfc low will track north of Lake Ontario, this will result in increased showers with some embedded thunderstorms. The greatest chance for shower activity should start around 7/8Z, but a few scattered showers out ahead of the main batch of showers cant be ruled out earlier in the night. Mainly a mixture of MVFR and low end VFR, with lower flight categories expected in showers and over the higher terrain. If any showers become heavier then brief drops to IFR may be possible. Guidance shows a 50+ knot LLJ ahead of the front and sfc winds falling off after 00Z, therefore LLWS has been added to the TAFs for KBUF, KIAG & KROC.

Showers and embedded thunderstorms continue into Saturday morning, with the potential for thunderstorms decreasing later in the morning. A cold front will push the showers southeast during the afternoon hours. Mainly MVFR in the morning with slow improvement's toward VFR from northwest to southeast late in the day.

Outlook...

Sunday...Mainly VFR
Monday
VFR/MVFR. Showers likely.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR

MARINE
Southerly winds on Lake Erie will be strong enough today to support SCA's, but will direct the highest waves into Canadian waters. Winds then shift to the southwest tonight ahead of the approaching cold front. Small craft headlines will likely be needed again for some of the waters late through the day Saturday.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for LEZ040- 041.