Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for University at Buffalo, NY
December 10, 2023 1:52 AM EST (06:52 UTC)
Sunrise 7:33AM Sunset 4:42PM Moonrise 5:06AM Moonset 2:49PM
LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 1048 Am Est Sat Dec 9 2023
This afternoon..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Rain.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Rain likely in the morning, then a chance of rain in the afternoon.
Sunday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. A chance of rain in the evening, then a chance of snow and rain overnight.
Monday..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy.
Wednesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy.
the water temperature off buffalo is 44 degrees.
This afternoon..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Rain.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Rain likely in the morning, then a chance of rain in the afternoon.
Sunday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. A chance of rain in the evening, then a chance of snow and rain overnight.
Monday..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy.
Wednesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy.
the water temperature off buffalo is 44 degrees.
LEZ005
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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 100555 AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1255 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023
SYNOPSIS
A cold front will ease its way across the region today with a period of showers and to the east soaking rainfall. As colder air deepens across the region a transition to snow is expected through the evening hours, with accumulating snow across higher terrain, and especially the Tug Hill and western foothills of the Adirondack mountains. Lighter snow accumulations across lower elevations through Monday morning with all areas dropping to or below the freezing mark.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Low pressure over Lake Superior region tracks to James Bay tonight. As this occurs, additional pair of mid level troughs ease eastward across the upper Great Lakes and southern Plains with strong 140 knot upper jet elongated from Gulf Coast to Quebec. Wavy surface cold front shifts into western NY late tonight then gradually treks across rest of the forecast area from west to east through the first half of Sunday. A surge of moderate rain will lift across western NY late this evening into the early overnight ahead of the front and on the nose of a strong low level jet. This doesn't last too long while quickly shifting to east of Lake Ontario and into Quebec by daybreak on Sunday. Given the limited duration of the rain tonight, most locations will see QPF amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch by daybreak Sunday with highest totals over far western NY. Just enough elevated instability to keep thunder mention as the front moves in. Another very warm night with readings remaining above 50 all night Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes while temps just start to drop into the 40s late over far western NY with the arrival of the front.
Second wave of moderate rain arrives from the southwest late on Sunday morning especially across the Finger Lakes and east of Lake Ontario as the approaching southern stream wave and right entrance jet divergence combine forces. QPF in the guidance has come down though compared to recent days, with rainfall amounts likely hard presses to top 0.50 inch for any of our forecast area. Temps fall into the mid 30s late afternoon over the interior of far western NY while tumbling into the upper 30s or lower 40s across the rest of the forecast area. Soundings indicate quick flip from rain to snow with dynamic cooling on west side of the system as far east as the Genesee Valley (Allegany County) even as temps only drop into the mid 30s at coolest by nightfall. Even so, any snow amounts will remain minimal by dark.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
A brief transition back to winter weather will occur Sunday night through Monday as cold air filters across western and north central NY. The biggest adjustment in this forecast has been a downward trend in widespread snowfall amounts. The greatest snowfall amounts still remain on the Tug Hill where the potential remains for greater than 7" and therefore a Winter Storm Watch was issued for Jefferson, Lewis, and Oswego counties
More details
A shortwave trough will be over the central Great Lakes with a 150kt upper level jet on the lee side of the 250mb trough Sunday night. A cold front will be well east of the region with anafrontal precipitation across the Finger Lakes to the eastern Lake Ontario region Sunday evening. Cold air advection will be ongoing across the entire region and rain will transition to snow overnight, first across the higher terrain. The western NY region will be under the left entrance region of the 250mb jet and with moisture diminishing, widespread rain and snow will transition to lake enhanced showers east of Lake Erie. Boundary layer temperatures will be marginal especially across lower elevations. Any snow accumulation will be confined to the higher terrain, mainly above 1000ft including the Tug Hill and hilltops across the western Southern Tier.
The shortwave trough will slow down and take on a negative tilt across western NY Monday. A wave of low pressure will ride the cold front along the east coast keeping the deformation zone and greatest moisture east of the forecast area. Synoptic moisture will pull away from southwest to northeast transitioning widespread snow to lake effect snow Monday. With marginal surface temperatures, minimal snowfall accumulations are expected at lower elevations including the Buffalo/Niagara Falls and Rochester centers. Cold air advection will continue with 850mb temperatures falling to -10C. Westerly winds will increase to 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph, with the highest gusts south-southeast of Lake Ontario.
East of Lake Ontario...Widespread snow with lake enhancement will continue east of Lake Ontario the first half of Monday. As moisture pulls east, snow will transition to lake effect snow showers Monday afternoon. A west-northwest flow will likely tap into an upstream connection which could increase organization southeast of Lake Ontario Monday afternoon. Snowfall amounts will range based on elevation with possible snowfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches along the Saint Lawrence River to 3 to 6 inches further inland to 5 to 10 inches on the Tug Hill. Highs will reach the mid 30s across the lower elevations to the upper 20s to low 30s on the Tug Hill. As stated above, A Winter Storm Watch is in effect.
East of Lake Erie...Snow will transition to lake effect snow east of Lake Erie with equilibrium levels falling from 10k to 5k Monday. A west-northwest wind will likely tap into an upstream connection with bands of lake effect snow southeast of Lake Erie. Snowfall amounts will range from 3 to 6 inches on the Chautauqua Ridge to hill tops across northern Chautauqua and southern Erie counties. Again, accumulating snow will stay south of the City of Buffalo.
Surface high pressure will build into the region from the southwest Monday night and lake bands will lift north. A few inches of snow are possible but it will be after the Monday evening commute. Low temperatures will fall to the low to mid 20s Monday night. The southwest flow will become enhanced Tuesday with the potential for strong, gusty winds especially northeast of the Lakes. Wind gusts up to 40 mph are possible. High temperatures will rise into the upper 30s to low 40s.
Increasing moisture and warm air advection ahead of a cold front Tuesday night may support lake band development northeast of the Lakes overnight. This may cause a few inches of snow overnight ahead of the Wednesday morning commute. Low temperatures will fall to the mid to upper 20s.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Mid-level trough axis will pull east into New England Wednesday. A shortwave trough will then rotate across southeastern Canada Wednesday night, acting to pull the long wave trough to the east into New England Thursday. Overall down at the surface this will support a weak cold front to drop south across New York State early Wednesday ushering in colder air into the region. With the cold air in place in addition to the moisture from the front some lake effect snow showers will be possible east/southeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario Wednesday into Thursday with the better chance for lake showers being east of Lake Ontario due to the close proximity of the front.
Surface high pressure will then push into the area Thursday night through Friday. Associated subsidence with the high will act to dwindle out the lake effect potential Thursday night before becoming dry Friday.
The next mid-level trough Will push east across the Great Lakes Region late next week into next weekend, supporting a surface cold front to push across the region. This will act to bring back some chances for some snow showers Saturday.
Temperatures throughout the later half of next week and into the weekend are expected to be near to a few degrees above normal.
Temperatures will generally range in the upper 30s to low 40s most of the days. The coldest of the days will be Wednesday due to the cold frontal passage ushering colder air, and supporting highs in the low to mid 50s. On the flip side, the warmest day of the period will occur Friday as the surface high will support some warm air advection and allow highs to range in the 40s.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
For the 06Z TAFS a cold front approaching WNY will continue to send numerous showers across the TAF region this morning with flight conditions largely MVFR and higher elevation IFR. Within breaks in shower activity there may be low end VFR ceiling heights.
Precipitation activity will be most numerous today across eastern zones (KART) while there may be a period of dry weather and return to low end VFR ceiling heights towards the west. As the upper level trough passes across the region tonight, precipitation will expand westward, and within deepening cold air change to snow. For most sites this will occur between the hours of 00 and 06Z. By late tonight much of the falling precipitation will be in the form of snow. This snow is likely for KART with IFR visibilities, while KROC and KJHW may also have a period of IFR in snow. Snow for KIAG and KBUF will be brief.
Outlook...
Monday...MVFR. Breezy with a chance of snow showers. IFR and likely snow east and southeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario.
Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR.
MARINE
Elevated south/south-southeasterly flow will continue ahead of cold front that reaches Lake Erie late tonight with a Small Craft Advisory is in effect over far eastern Lake Ontario into Sunday morning. Winds shift to the west and freshen further on Sunday from west to east. Increasing westerly winds on Lake Erie on Sunday morning prompted the issuance of a Small Craft Advisory for Lake Erie waters on Sunday with the winds and higher waves in wake of the cold front. Although that SCA on Lake Erie only goes until early Sunday evening, additional Small Craft Advisories (possibly long-duration) will eventually be needed on both Lakes later Sunday night through the middle of next week as winds and waves will become, and likely will remain elevated for an extended period of time.
CLIMATE
We still appear on track to break the December 9th warmest minimum temperature records at all three climate sites. For the climate day running from midnight to midnight, all three climate sites are not expected to fall below the record values.
Records for December 9th...
Buffalo.....Record warmest low 50 Rochester...Record warmest low 50 Watertown...Record warmest low 44
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Monday evening for NYZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ040-041.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LOZ045.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1255 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023
SYNOPSIS
A cold front will ease its way across the region today with a period of showers and to the east soaking rainfall. As colder air deepens across the region a transition to snow is expected through the evening hours, with accumulating snow across higher terrain, and especially the Tug Hill and western foothills of the Adirondack mountains. Lighter snow accumulations across lower elevations through Monday morning with all areas dropping to or below the freezing mark.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Low pressure over Lake Superior region tracks to James Bay tonight. As this occurs, additional pair of mid level troughs ease eastward across the upper Great Lakes and southern Plains with strong 140 knot upper jet elongated from Gulf Coast to Quebec. Wavy surface cold front shifts into western NY late tonight then gradually treks across rest of the forecast area from west to east through the first half of Sunday. A surge of moderate rain will lift across western NY late this evening into the early overnight ahead of the front and on the nose of a strong low level jet. This doesn't last too long while quickly shifting to east of Lake Ontario and into Quebec by daybreak on Sunday. Given the limited duration of the rain tonight, most locations will see QPF amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch by daybreak Sunday with highest totals over far western NY. Just enough elevated instability to keep thunder mention as the front moves in. Another very warm night with readings remaining above 50 all night Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes while temps just start to drop into the 40s late over far western NY with the arrival of the front.
Second wave of moderate rain arrives from the southwest late on Sunday morning especially across the Finger Lakes and east of Lake Ontario as the approaching southern stream wave and right entrance jet divergence combine forces. QPF in the guidance has come down though compared to recent days, with rainfall amounts likely hard presses to top 0.50 inch for any of our forecast area. Temps fall into the mid 30s late afternoon over the interior of far western NY while tumbling into the upper 30s or lower 40s across the rest of the forecast area. Soundings indicate quick flip from rain to snow with dynamic cooling on west side of the system as far east as the Genesee Valley (Allegany County) even as temps only drop into the mid 30s at coolest by nightfall. Even so, any snow amounts will remain minimal by dark.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
A brief transition back to winter weather will occur Sunday night through Monday as cold air filters across western and north central NY. The biggest adjustment in this forecast has been a downward trend in widespread snowfall amounts. The greatest snowfall amounts still remain on the Tug Hill where the potential remains for greater than 7" and therefore a Winter Storm Watch was issued for Jefferson, Lewis, and Oswego counties
More details
A shortwave trough will be over the central Great Lakes with a 150kt upper level jet on the lee side of the 250mb trough Sunday night. A cold front will be well east of the region with anafrontal precipitation across the Finger Lakes to the eastern Lake Ontario region Sunday evening. Cold air advection will be ongoing across the entire region and rain will transition to snow overnight, first across the higher terrain. The western NY region will be under the left entrance region of the 250mb jet and with moisture diminishing, widespread rain and snow will transition to lake enhanced showers east of Lake Erie. Boundary layer temperatures will be marginal especially across lower elevations. Any snow accumulation will be confined to the higher terrain, mainly above 1000ft including the Tug Hill and hilltops across the western Southern Tier.
The shortwave trough will slow down and take on a negative tilt across western NY Monday. A wave of low pressure will ride the cold front along the east coast keeping the deformation zone and greatest moisture east of the forecast area. Synoptic moisture will pull away from southwest to northeast transitioning widespread snow to lake effect snow Monday. With marginal surface temperatures, minimal snowfall accumulations are expected at lower elevations including the Buffalo/Niagara Falls and Rochester centers. Cold air advection will continue with 850mb temperatures falling to -10C. Westerly winds will increase to 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph, with the highest gusts south-southeast of Lake Ontario.
East of Lake Ontario...Widespread snow with lake enhancement will continue east of Lake Ontario the first half of Monday. As moisture pulls east, snow will transition to lake effect snow showers Monday afternoon. A west-northwest flow will likely tap into an upstream connection which could increase organization southeast of Lake Ontario Monday afternoon. Snowfall amounts will range based on elevation with possible snowfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches along the Saint Lawrence River to 3 to 6 inches further inland to 5 to 10 inches on the Tug Hill. Highs will reach the mid 30s across the lower elevations to the upper 20s to low 30s on the Tug Hill. As stated above, A Winter Storm Watch is in effect.
East of Lake Erie...Snow will transition to lake effect snow east of Lake Erie with equilibrium levels falling from 10k to 5k Monday. A west-northwest wind will likely tap into an upstream connection with bands of lake effect snow southeast of Lake Erie. Snowfall amounts will range from 3 to 6 inches on the Chautauqua Ridge to hill tops across northern Chautauqua and southern Erie counties. Again, accumulating snow will stay south of the City of Buffalo.
Surface high pressure will build into the region from the southwest Monday night and lake bands will lift north. A few inches of snow are possible but it will be after the Monday evening commute. Low temperatures will fall to the low to mid 20s Monday night. The southwest flow will become enhanced Tuesday with the potential for strong, gusty winds especially northeast of the Lakes. Wind gusts up to 40 mph are possible. High temperatures will rise into the upper 30s to low 40s.
Increasing moisture and warm air advection ahead of a cold front Tuesday night may support lake band development northeast of the Lakes overnight. This may cause a few inches of snow overnight ahead of the Wednesday morning commute. Low temperatures will fall to the mid to upper 20s.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Mid-level trough axis will pull east into New England Wednesday. A shortwave trough will then rotate across southeastern Canada Wednesday night, acting to pull the long wave trough to the east into New England Thursday. Overall down at the surface this will support a weak cold front to drop south across New York State early Wednesday ushering in colder air into the region. With the cold air in place in addition to the moisture from the front some lake effect snow showers will be possible east/southeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario Wednesday into Thursday with the better chance for lake showers being east of Lake Ontario due to the close proximity of the front.
Surface high pressure will then push into the area Thursday night through Friday. Associated subsidence with the high will act to dwindle out the lake effect potential Thursday night before becoming dry Friday.
The next mid-level trough Will push east across the Great Lakes Region late next week into next weekend, supporting a surface cold front to push across the region. This will act to bring back some chances for some snow showers Saturday.
Temperatures throughout the later half of next week and into the weekend are expected to be near to a few degrees above normal.
Temperatures will generally range in the upper 30s to low 40s most of the days. The coldest of the days will be Wednesday due to the cold frontal passage ushering colder air, and supporting highs in the low to mid 50s. On the flip side, the warmest day of the period will occur Friday as the surface high will support some warm air advection and allow highs to range in the 40s.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
For the 06Z TAFS a cold front approaching WNY will continue to send numerous showers across the TAF region this morning with flight conditions largely MVFR and higher elevation IFR. Within breaks in shower activity there may be low end VFR ceiling heights.
Precipitation activity will be most numerous today across eastern zones (KART) while there may be a period of dry weather and return to low end VFR ceiling heights towards the west. As the upper level trough passes across the region tonight, precipitation will expand westward, and within deepening cold air change to snow. For most sites this will occur between the hours of 00 and 06Z. By late tonight much of the falling precipitation will be in the form of snow. This snow is likely for KART with IFR visibilities, while KROC and KJHW may also have a period of IFR in snow. Snow for KIAG and KBUF will be brief.
Outlook...
Monday...MVFR. Breezy with a chance of snow showers. IFR and likely snow east and southeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario.
Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR.
MARINE
Elevated south/south-southeasterly flow will continue ahead of cold front that reaches Lake Erie late tonight with a Small Craft Advisory is in effect over far eastern Lake Ontario into Sunday morning. Winds shift to the west and freshen further on Sunday from west to east. Increasing westerly winds on Lake Erie on Sunday morning prompted the issuance of a Small Craft Advisory for Lake Erie waters on Sunday with the winds and higher waves in wake of the cold front. Although that SCA on Lake Erie only goes until early Sunday evening, additional Small Craft Advisories (possibly long-duration) will eventually be needed on both Lakes later Sunday night through the middle of next week as winds and waves will become, and likely will remain elevated for an extended period of time.
CLIMATE
We still appear on track to break the December 9th warmest minimum temperature records at all three climate sites. For the climate day running from midnight to midnight, all three climate sites are not expected to fall below the record values.
Records for December 9th...
Buffalo.....Record warmest low 50 Rochester...Record warmest low 50 Watertown...Record warmest low 44
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Monday evening for NYZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ040-041.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LOZ045.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY | 9 mi | 52 min | 52°F | 42°F | 29.73 | |||
| NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY | 13 mi | 52 min | 52°F | 29.70 | ||||
| YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY | 23 mi | 52 min | SSE 8.9G | 54°F | 29.70 | |||
| PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY | 24 mi | 52 min | 55°F | 29.74 | ||||
| OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY | 25 mi | 52 min | SSW 2.9G | 53°F | 29.74 | |||
| DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY | 45 mi | 52 min | WSW 13G | 54°F | 29.75 |
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Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KBUF BUFFALO NIAGARA INTL,NY | 5 sm | 21 min | S 14 | 10 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain | 54°F | 50°F | 88% | 29.73 |
| KIAG NIAGARA FALLS INTL,NY | 11 sm | 59 min | SSW 09 | 10 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain | 55°F | 52°F | 88% | 29.73 |
Wind History from BUF
(wind in knots)
Buffalo, NY,
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