Wednesday, March3, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Phelps, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 5:59PM Wednesday March 3, 2021 5:44 AM EST (10:44 UTC) Moonrise 11:29PMMoonset 9:11AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 343 Am Est Wed Mar 3 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..West winds 15 to 25 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers late. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 4 to 7 feet, then subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Tonight..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Thursday..North winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest. A chance of snow showers in the morning. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Thursday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Friday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Saturday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. A chance of snow showers during the day. Waves 2 feet or less. The water temperature off rochester is 35 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:202103031615;;398948 FZUS51 KBUF 030843 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 343 AM EST Wed Mar 3 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-031615-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Phelps, NY
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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 030820 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 320 AM EST Wed Mar 3 2021

SYNOPSIS. Snow showers will continue east of Lake Ontario today with a few inches possible on the Tug Hill Plateau. A brief warm up is expected today before colder air returns for the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Warmer temperatures are expected next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Surface warm front shifting north across southern Ontario early this morning. Quick hitting warm advective snows across the Jefferson and Lewis counties early this morning likely totaling 1-4 inches through midday today.

Westerly low level jet of 50-60 knots currently atop the area. Strongest winds remaining elevated, but have seen a few gusts downwind of Lake Erie in the corridor from Buffalo to Rochester of 40-45 mph.

Winds will lessen through the day today as the low level jet shifts off to the east. Today will be the warmest for at least the next several days with high temperatures reaching the upper 30s to lower 40s with lower 30s on the Tug Hill.

Upstream trough will cross the area later today bringing an increase moisture and increasing chances for mixed rain/snow showers by afternoon and evening.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. Aloft, a ridge of high pressure will remained anchored over Greenland this period, sending heights falling over the Northeast and Eastern Great Lakes region, while an upstream ridge of high pressure amplifies over the Plains.

Within this deepening trough over our region temperatures at 850 hPa will average in the low negative teens, cold enough to support lake instability. The limiting factor will be available moisture. Two periods, initially Thursday . and again Friday night and into Saturday look to have the deeper moisture . supporting a bit more widespread nuisance lake effect snow activity. Overall day to day snow totals will generally be in the one to two inch range where bands persist the longest.

Temperatures will remain below normal this period.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Sunday lingering lake effect snow showers south of Lake Ontario will fade as a surface ridge of high pressure builds towards our region.

An upstream ridge of high pressure will weaken some as it reaches our region Monday and Tuesday . but should be strong enough to maintain a mainly dry period. The exception will be a weak warm front passage Monday night that could bring a few rain or snow showers.

This warm front will also start a mild trend for our region . one that will likely carry on into the mid part of next week.

AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. A warm front passing by to the north with an area of snow moving across the eastern Lake Ontario region this morning with vsby restrictions at KART. A strong 50-60kt low-level jet moving across the region early this morning. The strongest winds will remain elevated, resulting in a brief period with LLWS at some locations, although surface gusts of 30-35 knots are likely at KIAG, KBUF, KROC through about 12z. Winds will then diminish below 20 knots the remainder of the day

Surface trough moving into the region later today will bring increasing chances for rain and snow showers with MVFR conditions developing by late this afternoon and evening.

Outlook .

Thursday . VFR/MVFR. A chance of snow showers. Friday and Saturday . Mainly VFR. A chance of snow showers. Sunday . Mainly VFR.

MARINE. Low pressure tracking across Ontario early this morning. The gradient produced by this system ramping up southwest winds with a period of higher end small craft advisory conditions through this morning.

Winds will weaken later today and tonight and veer to northwest. Though winds will be lessening, a higher wave field is expected along the south shore of Lake Ontario tonight into Thursday with another round of small craft advisories possible.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ040- 041. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LOZ043>045. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for LOZ042.



SYNOPSIS . TMA NEAR TERM . TMA SHORT TERM . Thomas LONG TERM . Thomas AVIATION . TMA MARINE . TMA


Weather Reporting Stations
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Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Penn Yan, Penn Yan Airport, NY24 mi51 minWSW 16 G 2310.00 miFair33°F10°F38%1012.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPEO

Wind History from PEO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW11NW13
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NW7NW11NW10--NW8NW10NW6
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4W6SW4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5SW5SW8W11SW14SW16
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1 day agoW8
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2 days agoCalmSW5SW3CalmSE10SE8SE9SE7SE14SE8E3SE9S7--S16
G22
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S10S7S11S10S85

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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