Friday, April16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Phelps, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:20AMSunset 7:51PM Friday April 16, 2021 7:04 AM EDT (11:04 UTC) Moonrise 7:51AMMoonset 11:32PM Illumination 20% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 926 Pm Edt Thu Apr 15 2021
Overnight..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Rain showers with patchy fog late. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Patchy fog in the morning. Rain showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of rain showers in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Becoming partly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday night..West winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 43 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:202104160915;;617274 FZUS51 KBUF 160126 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 926 PM EDT Thu Apr 15 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-160915-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Phelps, NY
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location: 43, -77     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 161042 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 642 AM EDT Fri Apr 16 2021

SYNOPSIS. Mixed rain and snow showers will continue today. Any minor snow accumulation will be limited to higher terrain. Mainly dry weather will return Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Closed low continuing to press southeast into north central Pennsylvania early this morning. Embedded strong wave pushing across western New York with an enhanced area of precipitation. Temperatures at the surface and aloft just cold enough for wet snow for the higher terrain of the western Southern Tier and Wyoming county into the Bristol Hills. Some of these areas nearing an inch or so based on local webcams. Mainly rain or a rain/snow mix for lower elevations with no snow accumulation.

Precipitation pivoting northwest around the upper low beginning to reach into areas east of Lake Ontario early this morning. We will start to see minor snow accumulations over the higher terrain of the Tug Hill and western Dacks east of Lake Ontario. Lower elevations will remain mainly rain with no snow accumulation.

Weak cyclonic flow will remain over the area through today. This will maintain an unsettled pattern with mixed rain and wet snow this morning transitioning to mainly rain this afternoon, except perhaps at the highest elevations where some wet snow will be possible. Temperatures today will struggle to climb and will only top out in the 40s.

Forcing shifts away from the area tonight with mixed showers diminishing, though could linger into Saturday morning due to moist upslope northerly flow.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. Generally unsettled pattern will continue through this weekend. That said, any showers will be mainly light and scattered in nature, with plenty of dry time built in. Temperatures will be on the uptick as well.

Next piece of weak upper level shortwave energy pinwheeling around the main upper low now located over the Gulf of Maine will traverse north to south across the eastern Great Lakes on Saturday. Limited moisture/large scale forcing will keep shower chances low, with the best chance during the afternoon owed to diurnal heating. We'll briefly dry out Saturday night thanks to subsidence in the wake of the shortwave passage, before the next shortwave trough crosses the region late Saturday night and Sunday. Overall forcing/moisture again look limited. However, still can't rule out a couple showers late Saturday night into Sunday morning, with best chance again with peak heating during the afternoon. Any diurnally driven showers will be over inland areas both afternoons away from the cooler lake waters. Weak ridging then builds over the area Sunday night providing dry conditions.

Otherwise, temperatures will trend from a bit below normal to start the weekend to around average to finish. This translates to highs ranging from mainly upper 40s and low 50s Saturday, to mainly lower and mid 50s on Sunday.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Yet another weak upper level disturbance moves across the area on Monday, possibly sparking off a few more showers, again aided by diurnal heating. Surface temperatures will warm further on Monday, however they will aloft as well. This will help limit coverage of instability showers, with just slight chances across inland areas. Daytime highs will top out in the mid to upper 50s. Ridging traverses the area Monday night into Tuesday morning allowing things to dry out briefly.

Our attention will then turn to a more significant feature in the form of a strong cold front that is forecast to approach the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday afternoon, then cross our region sometime between late Tuesday night and Wednesday. Model consensus on timing of the frontal passage continues to differ a little bit. Thus will keep precip chances capped in the high chance range until better agreement on timing of this feature locks in, after which can easily see raising PoPs into the "Likely" range with later packages. Precip does appear as though it may be anafrontal. Significance here is that with an airmass in the wake of the boundary possibly colder than the one we currently have over us, will see the possibility once again for some snow to mix in during this timeframe. Timing will again play a role as well being latter April. Cold upper low then crosses over the region Wednesday night and Thursday. A cold, moist cyclonic flow aloft and temps off the deck that may be cold enough to support a lake response (nocturnal) will keep a few rain and snow showers in the forecast to close out the period.

With regards to temperatures, weak warm advection in advance of the cold front will allow for near to a little above temperatures Monday and Tuesday, before a much chillier airmass pours across the eastern Great Lakes sending temperatures back below normal for mid week.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Cigs will persist at IFR to LIFR levels in rain and wet snow showers through much of the day today. Some improvement to MVFR is possible late today and tonight with rain and wet snow showers scattering out.

Outlook .

Saturday through Monday . Mainly VFR. Tuesday . MVFR to VFR with a chance of showers.

MARINE. Fresh to occasionally strong westerlies on Lake Erie will support small craft advisory conditions into early this afternoon. Otherwise, moderate breezes and waves generally under 4 feet will be found on Lake Ontario.

Wind will diminish tonight as the pressure gradient relaxes. Light to gentle breezes are expected through the weekend.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ040- 041.



SYNOPSIS . TMA NEAR TERM . TMA SHORT TERM . JM LONG TERM . JM AVIATION . TMA MARINE . TMA


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 37 mi64 min W 12 G 18 40°F 1005.8 hPa (-0.6)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 38 mi46 min 40°F
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 41 mi46 min SSE 6 G 8 39°F 1004.3 hPa37°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Penn Yan, Penn Yan Airport, NY24 mi71 minW 610.00 miLight Rain37°F33°F86%1004.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPEO

Wind History from PEO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalm5NW5W7W10W11
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35SW5W11W5S6SW6SW5W6W6W8
1 day agoSW4SW3SW5SW4CalmS4SE335N8N8
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33CalmCalmCalm3CalmCalm534Calm4
2 days agoS3SW7SW4SW3SW4Calm4W33E3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmSW3S3SW4SW5S6SW5SW3

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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