Friday, August14, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Phelps, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:10AMSunset 8:11PM Friday August 14, 2020 3:10 AM EDT (07:10 UTC) Moonrise 12:24AMMoonset 4:02PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 454 Pm Edt Thu Aug 13 2020
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 knots or less. Mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Saturday night..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. A chance of showers overnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..West winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 1 to 2 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 78 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:202008140315;;403817 FZUS51 KBUF 132054 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 454 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-140315-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Phelps, NY
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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 140530 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 130 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020

SYNOPSIS. Fair weather will continue through the end of the week with increasing humidity and shower chances this weekend. Above normal temperatures will continue until the passage of a cold front on Monday with below normal temperatures for much of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/. High pressure overhead overnight with just some scattered to broken mid and high level clouds at times. Temperatures will fall to the mid to upper 50s for Southern Tier and cool spots of the North Country and stay in the low to mid 60s elsewhere. Overnight subsidence and radiation inversions will allow for some patchy valley fog in the Southern Tier.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/. A slow evolution of the mid-level flow pattern looks to unfold through Saturday as a weak circulation in the mid-Mississippi Valley treks northeastward toward our region. This is associated with the right entrance region of a jet streak that will be transitioning northeastward during that time frame such that its right entrance region will be over western New York by Saturday. The GFS really tags on shower activity developing in association with this as deeper moisture advances into the region as evidenced by PWAT values running back up toward 1.5 inches. Other models are not quite as bullish with this development, but the GFS has been consistent, so it's difficult to rule out at this time. Chances of showers and thunderstorms have thus been maintained in increasingly soupy air by Saturday. In the interim, however, fair weather should remain.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. The area will be sandwiched between the area of high pressure from earlier in the week and an approaching low from the Ohio Valley Saturday night. That said, mainly dry weather will persist in the North Country, while the southwestern portions of the forecast area will see chances for showers and thunderstorms increase. By Sunday, the area of high pressure will have receded across the Northeast into the Canadian Maritimes, allowing the surface low to push east into the Mid-Atlantic. This dwindles down to an increase in warm air and moisture advection into the region, promoting the likelihood for showers and thunderstorms Sunday.

A well defined upper level trough will push east across the Mid-West and eventually into the Northeast for the first half of the new work week. As the upper level trough approaches, its associated cold front will cross the central Great Lakes Sunday night before crossing the area on Monday. With its arrival and passage, expect the chances of showers and thunderstorms throughout the day on Monday.

As the front departs the region and enters the Northeast, chances for showers will decrease from west to east Monday night. Behind the departing system, a large area of high pressure will engulf much of the eastern half of the CONUS Tuesday before beginning to build overhead Wednesday and Thursday. Overall, the remainder of the forecast period will be dry, though conditions will be conducive to a few showers Tuesday as any residual instability mixes with the leftover moisture residing across the area.

Highs throughout the rest of the weekend through the first half of the work week will range in the 70s, with the exception of a couple of readings in the low 80s along the Lake Plains on Monday and Thursday.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. High pressure and VFR through the period. Dry weather and light winds expected through Friday morning. There will be some patchy fog in the river valleys of the Southern Tier late tonight, but it should stay east of JHW. Northeast winds increase some starting on Friday afternoon.

Outlook .

Friday Night . Mainly VFR with local IFR in river valley fog late across the Southern Tier. Saturday through Monday . Mainly VFR with a chance of showers. Tuesday . VFR.

MARINE. High pressure across the Great Lakes will maintain overall light winds and waves overnight. High pressure drifts to the north Friday and Friday night while low pressure moves through the Ohio Valley. This will lead to an increasing northeast flow, with small craft headlines possible Friday night.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . Fries/TMA NEAR TERM . Fries/JLA/TMA SHORT TERM . Fries LONG TERM . EAJ AVIATION . Fries/JLA/TMA MARINE . Fries/TMA


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 37 mi70 min E 9.9 G 13 78°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 38 mi52 min 77°F 1019.1 hPa
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 41 mi52 min ENE 2.9 G 5.1 73°F 1018.9 hPa57°F
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 48 mi40 min ENE 12 G 16 76°F 75°F1019.1 hPa70°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Penn Yan, Penn Yan Airport, NY24 mi77 minN 010.00 miFair61°F57°F90%1019.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPEO

Wind History from PEO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW3SW4SW4SW4SW5SW3Calm3E63464--34CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmSW3W3S5W5SW44NW63NW6NW6NW6NW644CalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmS3SW5SW4
2 days agoSW7SW7SW8SW9SW11SW11S11S11
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W9CalmCalmSW3SW5W3NW5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.