Monday, August19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Phelps, NY

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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:15AMSunset 8:04PM Monday August 19, 2019 10:44 PM EDT (02:44 UTC) Moonrise 9:19PMMoonset 9:02AM Illumination 80% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1019 Pm Edt Mon Aug 19 2019
Overnight..West winds less than 10 knots. Mainly clear. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday..Light and variable winds becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers with Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Thursday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers during the day. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Friday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Mainly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 43 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201908200915;;494724 FZUS51 KBUF 200219 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1019 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-200915-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Phelps, NY
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location: 43, -77     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 200219
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
1019 pm edt Mon aug 19 2019

Synopsis
Summery conditions will continue through midweek as high
pressure builds into the region for the early part of the week.

This will mean generally clear nights and days with abundant
sunshine until the approach of a system on Wednesday. This will
spread showers and thunderstorms across the region ahead of a
cold front that will slice through the area and bring cooler and
drier air into the area on the heels of gusty northwest winds
the second half of the week.

Near term through Tuesday
Ir satellite imagery showing just a few scattered clouds left from
the south shore of lake ontario into the finger lakes, with clear
skies elsewhere. Expect mainly clear skies to prevail overnight
across most of the region.

The departure of a cold front to the east has allowed for
nominally lower dewpoints to begin their spread into the area
from the west. This will continue for a few more hours as the
apex of a surface high pressure ridge begins to bridge toward
the lower great lakes from the middle ohio valley through the
evening hours. This will be the main influence over our weather
for the next 36 hours or so, which means gradually fading flow
over the area and strong inversions forming tonight. As a result,
fog formation is almost a foregone conclusion in the river valleys
of the southern tier. Based upon river to atmosphere delta t's,
this could be locally dense. Lows tonight will drop into the upper
50s to lower 60s in most areas, and even some lower 50s for the
north country.

High pressure will gradually slink east of the region on Tuesday,
which will turn flow from the southwest again. This will allow
for warm advection to resume, which will bring temperatures back
up into the mid 80s on a widespread basis after fog mix out.

Likewise, flow from the southwest will again bring dewpoints back
up into the muggy range in the mid to upper 60s by later in the
afternoon across western ny.

Moisture instability return coupled with daytime heating may allow
for a few isolated to widely scattered showers and storms to develop
across northern pa in the afternoon, and some of these may spread
northward into the western southern tier by late afternoon.

Otherwise the rest of the area will remain dry with plenty of
sunshine.

Short term Tuesday night through Friday night
A 'change of seasons' on the horizon...

the amplification of the upper level pattern will not only lead to a
change in the weather across our region... But it will feel like
we've changed seasons. The buckling of the current near zonal flow
will come as a result of a strong shortwave that will rotate across
british columbia in the hours leading up to this period. This will
force an anomalously strong ridge to build over central canada...

while a deep but progressive trough will dig over our region. The
result of this scenario will be a change from mid july weather to
early autumn as temperatures will plunge to below normal levels. As
is almost always the case... This transition could be marked by
significant weather. The details.

High pressure will move off the new england coast Tuesday night...

while a strong cold front will approach from the upper great lakes.

The deepening southerly flow found between these systems will not
only help to hold up our temperatures... But it will also transport
increased low level moisture into our region. This could lead to
some nuisance showers across the southern tier... Although the bulk
of the region will just be warm and muggy with no precipitation.

Wednesday will then be quite active across our region. A pre-frontal
trough in the morning will combine with an already unstable
environment (mlcapes averaging 500 j kg) to encourage an increasing
coverage of showers and possible thunderstorms. As we push into the
afternoon... A strong cold front will settle to the south across
lakes erie and ontario. While there will be a fair amount of cloud
cover around... There should be enough insolation to push sbcapes to
between 1000-1500 j kg. The increasingly unstable airmass ahead of
the approaching front will then combine with the forcing form a
modest 30kt low level jet to support widespread showers and
thunderstorms... Which should include locally heavy rain and possibly
some strong convective wind gusts. Have already raised pops to
categorical for the afternoon.

The showers and thunderstorms will taper off from north to south
early Wednesday night as the cold front pushes into pennsylvania.

While somewhat drier air will work into the region late... The real
airmass change in the wake of the front will be delayed until
Thursday.

Speaking of which... Thursday will be cooler and much more
comfortable as dew points will gradually drop through the 50s.

Meanwhile h85 temps falling into the single digits will only support
afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 70s. Otherwise the day will
feature some 'self destruct sunshine'... As steep lapse rates of 9-10
deg c km beneath a staunch substance inversion will combine with a
chilly cyclonic flow to encourage midday and afternoon strato-cu.

Despite the low level instability... The vast majority of the region
will experience rain free conditions. Will include slgt chc pops
away from the lakes with low chc pops found over the north country
where an upslope flow and a passing shortwave could allow for a
couple showers.

Thursday night through Friday night will have an autumnal feel... As
overnight mins will range from the mid 50s near the lakes to the 40s
in the cooler southern tier valleys and possibly the foothills of
the adirondacks. Outside of some lake induced cloud cover southeast
of lake ontario late Thursday night... This three period stretch
should be mainly clear. Enjoy!

Long term Saturday through Monday
There is fairly strong consensus between the GEFS and operational
ecmwf that general ridging will be found over the region through
this period. The resulting fair dry weather will be accompanied by
subtle day to day warming... So that near to below normal
temperatures at the start of the period will climb above normal by
the start of the new work week.

Aviation 02z Tuesday through Saturday
High pressure will build east across the area tonight, bringing
mainly clear to partly cloudy skies overnight. River valley fog will
develop across the western southern tier, with local ifr vsby from
about 05z-13z. Some of this may impact kjhw.

TuesdayVFR will prevail after the valley fog in the southern tier
dissipates. Expect diurnal cumulus to develop along and inland of
the lake breeze boundaries. Deeper moisture and better instability
across pa will drift north into the western southern tier later in
the afternoon and may support a few isolated to widely scattered
showers and storms with local MVFR to ifr conditions.

Outlook...

Wednesday...VFR with areas of MVFR ifr in thunderstorms. Some storms
may be strong with gusty winds and hail.

Thursday through Saturday... MainlyVFR.

Marine
The west to southwest winds will weaken this evening and become
light and variable overnight through most of Tuesday... As high
pressure will drift across the region. Choppy wave conditions will
settle down later this evening.

A cold front will cross the lower great lakes late Wednesday and
Wednesday evening. This will generate numerous showers and
thunderstorms... With some storms likely producing strong gusty
winds.

Strengthening northwesterlies in the wake of the cold front will
lead to solid small craft advisories for the lake ontario nearshore
waters Wednesday night and Thursday. Meanwhile... A shorter fetch and
lower wind speeds may allow conditions to remain below small craft
advisory criteria on lake erie.

Tides coastal flooding
A strong cold front will cross the lower great lakes late
Wednesday and Wednesday evening. Strengthening northwesterlies
in the wake of the front may combine with increased wave action
and already high lake levels to produce more significant
shoreline erosion and flooding Wednesday night into Thursday
evening. A lakeshore flood watch has been issued from niagara
county to oswego county to address this increased risk.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Lakeshore flood watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday
evening for nyz004>006.

Lakeshore flood watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday
afternoon for nyz001>003.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Fries
near term... Fries hitchcock
short term... Rsh
long term... Rsh
aviation... Hitchcock
marine... Hitchcock rsh
tides coastal flooding... Rsh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 37 mi44 min WSW 7 G 9.9 76°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 38 mi62 min 74°F 1016 hPa
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 41 mi62 min S 2.9 G 4.1 73°F 1016.5 hPa66°F
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 48 mi34 min W 5.8 G 7.8 72°F 71°F1016.6 hPa68°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Penn Yan, Penn Yan Airport, NY24 mi1.9 hrsN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F63°F69%1017 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPEO

Wind History from PEO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW7SW9SW10S9SW9SW8SW5S6SW6CalmS5SW5NW6W6NW7W86W8W4W7W5NW5CalmE4
1 day agoSW5S6S6SW6SW3SW5CalmSW6SW7SW7SW6S11SW10S7S7
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2 days agoSW3SW4SW4SW5SW6SW5SW5SW5SW6SW7SW7S8S8S6S3N73S6SE4SW6SW6SW5SW5SW5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.