Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Phelps, NY

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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 130307 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1007 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure along the east coast heading toward Gulf of Maine will reach Atlantic Canada by Friday afternoon which will maintain dry weather across our region through most of Friday. Low pressure tracking northward along the east coast will bring slightly warmer weather and rain to the area late Friday and Saturday. Cold air will return Sunday, with lake effect snow showers across the region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/. Surface high pressure is in process of exiting of the east coast, drifting toward the Gulf of Maine. Meanwhile, low pressure system over the Upper Great Lakes is beginning to weaken. Net result is a southerly return flow across our region. Mid clouds have thinned out and expect even the high clouds to clear out after midnight. In fact, already seeing a few breaks in the clouds and that allowed temps this evening to tank at Niagara Falls (lower 20s) and Watertown (mid teens). Even as the clouds clear, the increasing southerly flow will generally result in temps staying steady or even rising some where they bottomed out this evening. Overall most locations overnight will see readings in the mid to upper 20s.

On Friday, as high pressure moves farther off the New England coast, a persistent southerly flow will begin to advect moisture in from the south. Skies will turn mostly cloudy, first over the Southern Tier by mid afternoon, then across the lake plains and the eastern Lake Ontario region by sunset. There may be enough low-level moisture for some light precipitation to form in the afternoon, mainly over the far Southern Tier. 00z NAM continues to be quite aggressive in bringing qpf over the region as early as mid afternoon but it looks too quick with arrival of saturated low-levels. Will lean on the drier Canadian and GFS idea with most precip holding off til Friday evening. The southerly flow will result in notably warmer weather with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s. The warmest areas will be the lake plains which will be aided by southerly downsloping.

These warmer temps should be good enough to keep ptype liquid even if the earlier NAM idea is correct. Suppose with colder ground, there may be risk of patchy freezing rain even if the temps are only in the 35-37F range (Southern Tier and Tug Hill to Dacks), but since the precip would be arriving during peak insolation/heating of the day, that risk seems to be on the low side. Based on forecast soundings from NAM,GFS and Canadian, chance of seeing any snow Friday afternoon or into Friday evening is now pretty much nil.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. Phasing of the northern and southern stream will take place across the central Appalachians and Mid Atlantic region Friday night into Saturday. A 130kt upper level jet will curve around a departing ridge across the eastern Great Lakes Friday night. While warm air advection continues across the region, an easterly flow off the Atlantic will intensify moisture into inland portions of the region. At first, only light amounts of rain expected across inland portions of the region Friday evening before a surge of theta-e advection moves in overnight. There may be pockets of sub-freezing surface temperatures Friday evening however confidence is low as warm air advection is strong at the surface and temperatures are expected to climb through the night. Also, cloud cover looks likely which will limit radiational cooling early on. At this time, mainly rain is expected however there is a low chance of freezing rain for interior valleys of the Southern Tier as well as the Tug Hill region Friday evening. By Saturday morning, temperatures should be well above freezing and rain will be spreading across the region. Rainfall amounts will range from a half inch along the Lake Erie/Niagara River and NYS border to 0.75-1.00 inches east of the Genesee Valley. High temperatures will reach the low to mid 40s Saturday which will result in snowmelt in combination with the rainfall expected. Rivers and creeks will rise however model ensembles keep sites below flood stages so flood potential is low.

Surface low pressure will track into southern Quebec Saturday night while the upper level trough becomes negatively tilted. Warm air and moisture from the Atlantic will wrap around the low and while northwest flow filters into the region, rain will transition to snow showers from west to east. Surface temperatures will remain marginal, low to mid 30s, through Saturday night while drier air moves into the region. Most of the snow showers will be confined to the higher elevations with light accumulations expected. Cold air advection will continue through Sunday night and while 850mb temperatures fall low enough for lake induced instability, synoptic moisture is cut off with surface high pressure moving across the Ohio Valley. Snow accumulations of 1-2 inches are possible at higher elevations east of Lake Erie and 2-4 inches east of Lake Ontario Saturday night through Sunday night. Temperatures remain marginal across the Lake Plains and less than an inch is expected during this time.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. On Monday the surface ridge will slowly drift from New York State into New England resulting in dry weather across the region. 12Z model consensus tracks low pressure from southern Ohio into southern New England, and although there are some differences it appears likely it will track to our south which will keep us on the cold/mainly snow side of the system. The system will not be well organized at this point with an open mid-level wave likely to result in only minor snow accumulations (a few inches or less).

This low will strengthen as it reaches the Canadian maritimes which will establish a cold northwesterly flow across our region. 850 mb temperatures will drop to around -20C which is plenty cold enough to support lake effect snow. The amount of moisture will depend on how developed the mid level low is, and here is where there is some model disagreement. There will be at least some lake response Tuesday night and Wednesday which may linger into Wednesday night. It will be a west to northwest flow during this period, with the potential to produce significant accumulations depending on how it plays out. Still way too early for specific snow amounts, but stay tuned.

Winds will diminish as the low moves away on Thursday with lingering lake snows tapering off. Temperatures will average below normal throughout the period, especially on Wednesday and Thursday when daytime highs will only be in the 20s.

AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. For tonight, high clouds will continue to fade away overnight with skies becoming mostly clear after midnight. Only issue to contend with is LLWS at all TAF sites due to developing low-level jet from SSW of 40 kts at 1500-2000 ft AGL.

On Friday, mostly clear skies in the morning will be replaced by lowering mid clouds (staying VFR) from the south during the afternoon into early Friday evening. South winds will gust to 20 kts at most of the TAF sites during peak heating of the day.

Outlook .

Friday night . VFR lowering to MVFR by late evening in rain and possibly some mixed precipitation. Saturday . IFR/MVFR. Rain. Sunday . Areas of MVFR/IFR in snow showers, especially southeast of the lakes. Monday . VFR. Tuesday . VFR/MVFR. A chance of snow showers.

MARINE. High pressure will slide eastward off the New England coast with a strengthening southerly flow across the lakes. These will be strongest along the east shores of Lake Ontario where Small Craft headlines remain in place. It will be close on Lake Erie, but with winds marginal and offshore it probably will fall just short of criteria.

Low pressure will track across New England on Saturday with an increasing northwesterly flow which may require more Small Craft headlines.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Friday for LOZ045.



SYNOPSIS . Apffel/JLA NEAR TERM . Apffel/JLA SHORT TERM . HSK LONG TERM . Apffel AVIATION . Apffel/JLA MARINE . Apffel

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY	37 mi	43 min	SSE 6 G 7	31°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY	38 mi	61 min		30°F			1027.1 hPa
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY	41 mi	55 min	SSE 8.9 G 13				1028.7 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY

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W26 G33

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SW9 G13

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NW16 G21

NW14 G17

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W18 G26

W25 G44

W29 G41

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S14 G22

S15 G21

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SW7 G18

S11 G17

SW8 G17

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W14 G18

W21 G31

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W20 G27

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NW20 G25

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NW18 G23

NW18 G22

NW19 G23

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Penn Yan, Penn Yan Airport, NY	24 mi	50 min	S 17 G 25	10.00 mi	Fair	30°F	12°F	47%	1029.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPEO

Wind History from PEO (wind in knots)

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W7

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (23,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY

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