Saturday, August24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Victor, NY

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:24AMSunset 8:00PM Saturday August 24, 2019 12:13 AM EDT (04:13 UTC) Moonrise 11:56PMMoonset 2:15PM Illumination 39% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Sodus Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 133 Pm Edt Fri Aug 23 2019
This afternoon..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..Southeast winds less than 10 knots increasing to 5 to 15 knots. Mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. Mainly clear, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..South winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 71 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201908232130;;092980 FZUS51 KBUF 231733 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 133 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-232130-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Victor, NY
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location: 43, -77.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 240243
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
1043 pm edt Fri aug 23 2019

Synopsis
Most areas should remain dry right through the weekend, although
there is the possibility of a brief shower or sprinkle overnight
south of lake ontario and into finger lakes. There will also be
several more early mornings with typical inland valley fog. The
next chance of rain along with warmer weather won't return until
next Tuesday or Wednesday.

Near term through Saturday
Ir satellite imagery this late evening displays much of the
higher terrain now clearing out, with surface observations and
satellite displaying a few lower lake enhanced clouds south of
lake ontario. A colder airmass, with 850 hpa temperatures
around +6c will continue to drop southward across lake ontario
tonight, possibly bringing a few scattered lake effect rain
showers south of lake ontario late overnight as deeper moisture
arrives from southern canada.

Otherwise expect a resurgence of clouds overnight south of lake
ontario across the lake plain and towards the finger lakes.

Also expect a return of the typical valley fog to form where
skies remain clear to partly cloudy late tonight. Expect a dry
and quite cool night elsewhere. Temperatures will indeed be
chilly by latter august standards. Lows will bottom out in the
low to mid 40s across the higher terrain, with lower to mid 50s
elsewhere.

Saturday, the core of the coldest airmass will be overhead and in
the process of mixing out. Thus expect another day with inland
stratocumulus development with clear or clearing skies over the
lakes by afternoon.

On a side note, there may be an interesting "reverse" lake band
heading wsw toward the eastern side of lake erie by morning. This
won't have any impacts for wny, but it's a little unusual to see
the models picking this out.

Short term Saturday night through Monday night
High pressure will reside across southern quebec and northern new
england Saturday night. Variable to light southeast winds will occur
overnight. Mostly clear skies and calm conditions will likely result
in patchy fog across the southern tier. It will be less widespread
than the past few nights because of the abundance of dry air across
the region. Low temperatures will fall into the low to mid 50's to
upper 40's in valley locations across the western southern tier.

Surface high pressure remains in control Sunday while a mid-level
ridge approaches the eastern great lakes. Mid-level flow turns out
of the southeast with 850hpa temperatures climbing to +9-12c which
will help temperatures climb closer to normal, mid to upper 70's for
late august. Lingering moisture aloft will lead cumulus development
through the afternoon. Dry conditions continue Sunday night into
Monday. Low temperatures will fall into the low to mid 50's.

While dry weather continues into Monday, attention moves to moisture
approaching from the ohio valley. Warm air advection will occur
through the afternoon as the mid-level ridge moves overhead. There
shouldn't be much change in temperatures including dewpoints from
Sunday to Monday however cloud cover will start to increase from the
southwest Monday afternoon. High temperatures will again be in the
upper 70's to possibly 80 across the lake plains. A warm front
enters western ny late Monday night and will increase the chance for
showers and possibly a thunderstorm early Tuesday morning. Low
temperatures will fall into the mid to upper 50's to low 60's.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
Broad longwave trough over central canada will expand across the
great lakes and eastern canada. Sfc flow will increase from the ssw
into the lower great lakes Tuesday into Wednesday as main sfc low
spins over northern ontario toward the southern shore of hudson bay
sending a warm front across the lower great lakes into new england.

Expect temps to rise above normal with upper 70s to low 80s a good
landing point for now.

Details remain murky about convection Tuesday with main issue
focusing on how expansive convection will be along warm front. Gfs
continues to be more aggressive in eastward push of showers and
thunderstorms on Tuesday, showing QPF as far east as areas east of
lake ontario, while ECMWF and canadian keep most of activity on
Tuesday over western ny closer to approaching strong sw-ne oriented
upper jet ahead of broad trough and also closer to axis of 1.75 to
2.0 inch pwats. Convective shortwave(s) riding into ny ahead of main
trough will have to be watched as it could boost pops earlier, but
going to go with slower idea from ECMWF and canadian given strength
of incoming trough which will tend to amplify mid-upper level flow
and keep most widespread precip closer to larger scale features.

As initial cold front moves through Tuesday night into Wednesday,
should be a greater chance of seeing widespread convection. Though
mid to upper level winds will be brisk from the sw, any convection
will have potential to produce heavy rain as pwats reach 2 inches
and wbzero heights rise toward 14kft. Though it is pretty far out to
hone in on the details, seems that greatest chances for showers and
storms on Wednesday will be over our eastern areas toward finger
lakes and east of lake ontario as cold front arrives there during
the afternoon during peak heating MAX instability. If that timing
holds and sufficient instability is present, there would be at least
some risk of stronger storms given strong wind fields present.

High pressure is then forecast to build across the region later
Wednesday into Thursday behind the cold front. This will encourage
the return of fair weather along with more comfortable humidity
levels.

Aviation 03z Saturday through Wednesday
Vfr flight conditions will be dominate across the TAF region with
the 00z TAF package. There will be valley fog across the southern
tier, but the drier airmass should keep much of this fog from
spilling out of the valley. Will just place a vcfg in the kjhw taf.

As colder air spills across lake ontario tonight, there will remain
enough moisture through 5k feet that a few stray showers form.

Coverage area will be sparse... But it is not out of the question
that such shower could pass across kroc.

Tomorrow will beVFR with light winds and just some inland cumulus
forming through the day.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Monday... MainlyVFR with nothing more than
southern tier valley fog producing local ifr conditions each late
night and morning.

Tuesday and Wednesday... MVFR possible with showers and thunderstorms.

Marine
Expect some light chop on both lakes this evening before winds
briefly freshen out of the north-northeast later tonight through
early Saturday morning. This will bring another round of choppy
conditions on lake ontario, but again it looks like conditions will
stay below small craft advisory criteria. Gradient flow will relax
some later Saturday afternoon into Sunday as high pressure builds
closer the lakes. This will promote light winds and diminishing
waves.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jm zaff
near term... Jm thomas zaff
short term... Hsk
long term... Jla
aviation... Thomas
marine... Jm zaff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 19 mi74 min NE 14 G 15 69°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 20 mi62 min 69°F 1020.4 hPa
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 43 mi44 min NNE 14 G 18 67°F 71°F1021.2 hPa53°F
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 61 mi62 min NNE 15 G 19 67°F 1020.5 hPa50°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY12 mi2.3 hrsNW 310.00 miPartly Cloudy60°F52°F75%1021.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KROC

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Last 24hrSW4SW4SW4W4SW4SW3CalmCalmN7N7NE9NE8N8NE11N8
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1 day agoSW6SW8W7NW7NW8NW8W6W5W6NW8W7W9W10W10W8W10W11NW11W7W4W4W3SW3SW4
2 days agoSW3W3SW4SW3W9W8SW6SW3SE6CalmSE4SW76W10SW10W11W9W8SW12W7W9SW7SW8SW9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.