Tuesday, October15, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. Francis, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 6:11PM Tuesday October 15, 2019 6:34 AM CDT (11:34 UTC) Moonrise 7:27PMMoonset 8:36AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ645 North Point Light To Wind Point Wi- 506 Am Cdt Tue Oct 15 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
.gale warning in effect from late tonight through Wednesday afternoon...
Today..South wind 15 to 20 knots becoming 15 to 25 knots late in the morning, then becoming 15 to 20 knots early in the afternoon becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Chance of showers late in the morning. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 3 to 4 feet late in the afternoon.
Tonight..West wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots late in the evening, then becoming 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots after midnight veering northwest with gusts to around 35 knots early in the morning. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 3 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet early in the morning.
Wednesday..Northwest wind 15 to 25 knots rising to up to 30 knots late in the morning, then easing to 15 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 knots. Slight chance of showers in the morning. Waves 4 to 6 feet building to 5 to 7 feet.
Wednesday night..Northwest wind 15 to 25 knots becoming 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and early morning, then easing to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves 5 to 7 feet subsiding to 4 to 6 feet in the late evening and overnight.
LMZ645 Expires:201910151600;;738895 FZUS53 KMKX 151006 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 506 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ645-151600-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Francis, WI
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location: 43.01, -87.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 150831
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
331 am cdt Tue oct 15 2019

Discussion
Today and tonight... Forecast confidence is medium...

another upper level low will continue to barrel into northern
wisconsin today, which will bring some PVA in addition to the low
pressure system expected to push through. This system will be
associated with plenty of low to mid level moisture as well as
some strong waa. This should bring some isolated to scattered
showers this morning mainly across the northern parts of the cwa.

There also is some potential for a few weak thunderstorms with a
little CAPE nudging into southern wisconsin as well.

The other concern with this system will be strong winds, which
will pick up this morning initially from the south but as the
front pushes through this afternoon winds will turn to the west.

The pressure gradient behind this system will be quite strong,
which will actually cause winds to increase quite a bit from this
afternoon through the overnight period and into Wednesday morning.

Wednesday and Wednesday night... Forecast confidence is high.

Strong northwest winds will continue into Wednesday as the low
pulls off to the east and high pressure pushes in from the west.

The rather steep low level lapse rate will allow for some deep
mixing and gusty winds. The strongest winds will be in the
morning, with a few gusts pushing 35 mph at times. The winds will
diminish quickly as evening approaches. The wrap around moisture
should be extensive, so it looks cloudy and rather chilly.

Winds settle down Wednesday night with some frost expected late.

Thursday and Friday... Forecast confidence is high.

An impressive mid level ridge will slide through the region during
the period. The surface high will push east by Friday as a strong
low pressure system lifts northeast through the northern plains,
heading for the manitoba ontario, canada border Friday evening.

This will allow warmer southerly winds to kick in for Friday. This
will be the nicest stretch of the week.

Saturday... Forecast confidence is medium.

A cold front trailing from that low up in canada will sweep
through the area. A decent thermal ridge ahead of the front,
coupled with precipitable water climbing to 1-1.2 inches should
help to produce a band of showers. The GFS suggests it may just be
a morning event, while the ECMWF is most of the day. That timing
will get worked out as the weekend approaches.

Sunday... Forecast confidence is medium.

We should see a brief period of ridging, resulting in a mostly dry
day across southern wisconsin. There isn't much in the way of cold
air advection behind the front, so we should still warm into the
lower and mid 60s.

Monday and Tuesday... Forecast confidence is medium.

The models have been consistent in showing a rather energetic
system digging into the northern tier of the CONUS Sunday night
into Monday. There is quite a bit of difference in the mid levels
between the ECMWF and the gfs. The ECMWF depicts a potent closed
mid level circulation over northern mn Monday afternoon.

Meanwhile, the GFS maintains more of a large scale open wave. We
should see a decent round of rain and possible thunderstorms
Monday in either scenario. If it remains progressive, drier and
colder weather should be pushing in by Tuesday.

Aviation(09z tafs)
Vfr conditions will continue this morning. A few showers may
accompany a frontal boundary as it slips through during the
morning and early afternoon. An isolated t-storm can not be ruled
out as well. Have delayed the MVFR cold air stratocumulus until
later in the afternoon early evening.

Marine
Winds will strengthen this morning initially from the south,
however will switch to the west as the front passes through by the
afternoon. This will yield a small craft advisory for the whole
day through much of the evening and overnight period. The
pressure gradient on the backside of the low pressure will be very
strong thus strengthening winds overnight through much Wednesday.

This will yield gale force gusts across the lake, including the
nearshore, Wednesday morning. The nearshore gale warning will
likely end around 19z with the open water gale warning lasting
through 00z Thursday. Another small craft advisory will be needed
after the expiration of the gale warning in the nearshore.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... Gale warning from 3 am to 7 pm cdt Wednesday for lmz080-261-362-
364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-870-872-874-
876-878.

Small craft advisory from 7 am this morning to 3 am cdt
Wednesday for lmz643>646.

Gale warning from 3 am to 2 pm cdt Wednesday for lmz643>646.

Today tonight and aviation marine... Ark
Wednesday through Monday... Davis


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 26 mi55 min Calm G 1 40°F 1015.2 hPa
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 29 mi35 min SSE 12 G 14 49°F 1014.2 hPa (-2.4)
45186 45 mi35 min SSE 12 G 14 51°F 51°F2 ft

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI4 mi43 minSSE 1010.00 miOvercast47°F41°F80%1013.9 hPa
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI12 mi40 minN 010.00 miFair34°F30°F87%1013.9 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI17 mi50 minSSE 810.00 miClear43°F37°F81%1013.9 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI18 mi42 minSSE 810.00 miFair48°F43°F83%1014.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMKE

Wind History from MKE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW8W6W8W9W9
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W7W9W10SW7SW5S4SE3SE3S6S4CalmS3S3CalmS6S7S10
1 day agoSW9W13
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2 days agoSW11SW16
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W10W7W7SW6SW8SW8S8SW8SW9
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.