Thursday, January23, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
St. Francis, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 4:53PM Thursday January 23, 2020 8:31 PM CST (02:31 UTC) Moonrise 7:31AMMoonset 4:42PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ645 North Point Light To Wind Point Wi- 706 Pm Cst Thu Jan 23 2020
Tonight..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots backing east after midnight, then rising to 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Rain and snow likely through around midnight, then rain and snow after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet early in the morning.
Friday..East wind 15 to 20 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots early in the afternoon, then backing northeast late in the afternoon. Rain and snow. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Friday night..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots becoming north 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Rain. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Saturday..North wind 10 to 15 knots backing northwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain in the morning, then slight chance of rain in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the late morning and early afternoon, then subsiding to 1 to 3 feet late in the afternoon. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ645 Expires:202001240500;;416919 FZUS53 KMKX 240106 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 706 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ645-240500-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Francis, WI
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location: 43.01, -87.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 232352 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 552 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2020

UPDATE. A lull in the snowfall continues, but there are pockets of low level lift keeping some very light areas of snow in the area. Expecting an increase in the next few hours over southeast Wisconsin with an area of 925mb warm air advection moving into the area. This source of lift can be seen with the radar reflectivities over northeast Illinois. Otherwise the next main wave of snow is expected to move in after midnight associated with the 500mb positive vorticity advection.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS). Widespread IFR conditions continue and areas of snow are dropping visibilities to 2 to 5 miles at times. LIFR ceilings will be moving in over the next few hours for areas with areas from MSN and westward potentially remaining at 500 to 800 ft. Light snow will increase over far southeast Wisconsin in the next few hours but the main round of snow moves in after 06Z. Expect visibilities to drop around 1 to 2 miles with snow. Snow amounts around an inch are expected through 12Z with lighter amounts expected through the day Friday. A transition to rain is possible during the day Friday. East winds will shift to the northeast Friday afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION. (Issued 337 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2020)

SHORT TERM .

Tonight and Friday . Forecast Confidence is medium.

Light snow will likely continue over far ern WI as vorticity maximums continue from IL into lower MI. Additional snow accums over ern WI will be less than an inch for this afternoon and evening.

As the upper low currently over KS becomes negative tilt and tracks to srn IN, more accumulating light snow is expected. One round of light snow will occur after midnight into Fri AM via PVA and low to mid level warm, moist advection. There will likely be a break followed by another round late Fri aft-nt. At times the mid levels may dry out enough for a lack of ice, hence light rain or brief freezing rain where sfc temps are below freezing. Also, sfc temps may warm enough for rain at times on Friday especially over the lake counties. Snow accums from this afternoon through Friday will range from 1-3 inches.

LONG TERM .

Friday Night through Saturday . Forecast Confidence is Medium.

An upper level low will be moving through the Great Lake Region Friday night through Saturday. The associated surface low track has come into further agreement with this run of guidance. There will be decent warm air advection ahead of the deepening low which will get wrap around the low and spread into southern Wisconsin Friday night into Saturday. The track of the low and warm air advection could be enough to bring a warm layer into the areas near Lake Michigan that would result in a rain/snow mix. The thickness of the warm layer and how much the warm air wraps around the low will dictate how long the wintry mix will last, which could effect snowfall totals as we get closer to Friday night. The rain/snow mix position is still roughly from Fond du Lac down to Rockford IL. Temperatures will begin to cool overnight Friday in the west which will push the rain/snow mix up to the lake shore for Saturday.

Sunday through Thursday . Forecast Confidence is Low.

Drier conditions are expected to start on Sunday but some guidance is suggesting that there could positive vorticity advection dropping south on the back side of the departing system on Saturday. This advecting positive vorticity advection could bring some additional flurries/light snow on Sunday morning. At the beginning of next week, guidance suggests a series of week upper waves that could bring some light flurries each day. Throughout next week these weak upper waves will keep clouds socked in and temperatures steady. By Tuesday through Thursday the forecast becomes muddled with guidance bringing various weak shortwaves through the central US. There could be enough lift and moisture to support some light snow/rain but will keep PoPs low until the forecast becomes more clear.

AVIATION(21Z TAFS) . Cigs mainly below 1 kft for late this afternoon through Friday. Vsbys will range from 3/4SM to 2SM due to light fog and light snow.

MARINE . Low pressure of 29.9 inches over western MO will deepen to 29.7 inches as it moves to far southern Lake MI for Friday night. Modest south to southeasterly winds today will become brisk easterly winds for Friday. Brisk northeast winds will then prevail over the northern half of the Lake Friday night with variable winds in the south. Winds will become north to northwest for this weekend as the low slowly pulls away, generally staying below 25 knots through this period.

For the nearshore waters from Port Washington to Winthrop Harbor, brisk ely winds on Friday may lead to 3 to 5 foot waves and a possible Small Craft Advisory.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. LM . None.

Update . RAH Tonight/Friday and Aviation/Marine . Gehring Friday Night through Thursday . Patterson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 26 mi51 min S 6 G 6 35°F 1019 hPa
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 29 mi31 min SSE 8.9 G 11 33°F 1017.3 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI4 mi39 minSE 60.75 miLight Snow Fog/Mist34°F30°F89%1018 hPa
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI12 mi46 minESE 33.00 miLight Snow32°F28°F87%1017.6 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI17 mi46 minE 53.00 miLight Snow30°F28°F93%1016.9 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI18 mi38 minSSE 51.50 miLight Snow Fog/Mist34°F30°F89%1018.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMKE

Wind History from MKE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS9S11S6S6S5S10S5S5S7S7S5S6S6S6S5S4SE4SE6S5SE4SE6S5SE4SE6
1 day agoS8S10S11SW11SW13SW13SW14SW11
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2 days agoW3W3CalmNW3W4SW4W4W5W6SW5SW4SW6SW7SW11
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.