Sunday, December8, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
St. Francis, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 4:18PM Sunday December 8, 2019 12:46 PM CST (18:46 UTC) Moonrise 3:31PMMoonset 4:12AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ645 North Point Light To Wind Point Wi- 1105 Am Cst Sun Dec 8 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 3 pm cst this afternoon...
Rest of today..Southwest wind 10 to 20 knots becoming 15 to 20 knots early in the afternoon, then easing to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 knots. Cloudy. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Tonight..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots becoming south late in the evening, then becoming southeast after midnight becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Chance of drizzle through around midnight, then rain after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Monday..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots veering west late in the morning, then becoming west 5 to 10 knots early in the afternoon rising to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the morning. Chance of drizzle through the day. Rain likely in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Monday night..Northwest wind 15 to 20 knots becoming 10 to 20 knots late in the evening, then becoming 15 to 20 knots after midnight becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Gusts up to 25 knots. Chance of drizzle and light freezing drizzle through around midnight. Waves 3 to 4 feet. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ645 Expires:201912082300;;046246 FZUS53 KMKX 081705 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1105 AM CST Sun Dec 8 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ645-082300-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Francis, WI
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location: 43.01, -87.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 081741 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1141 AM CST Sun Dec 8 2019

UPDATE. Little if any changes needed to forecast at this time.

PC

AVIATION(18Z TAFS). VFR conditions expected into early this evening. High level cloudiness continues to stream wsw-ene. Lower ceilings well to our northwest behind frontal boundary. Still expecting light rain or drizzle to develop across the area esp after 06z or so. CIGS/vsbys will be heading down as airmass continues to moisten up, so some LIFR conditions are quite plausible very late tonight into Monday. Precipitation will trend to a mix and some light snow Monday afternoon into the early evening as colder air wraps in behind a cold front with precip likely to wind down rather quickly. With the loss of ice crystals during this time some spotty freezing drizzle is possible as well.

PC

PREV DISCUSSION. (Issued 911 AM CST Sun Dec 8 2019)

UPDATE . No changes to the forecast at this time.

PC

MARINE . Left marine headlines alone for now and will likely let them expire naturally. The anticipated reduction in speeds/waves supports this and will likely not warrant any kind of extension.

PC

PREV DISCUSSION . (Issued 557 AM CST Sun Dec 8 2019)

UPDATE .

The forecast is on track for the upcoming day.

AVIATION(12Z TAFS) .

Gusty southwest winds will ease later today, with the low level wind shear coming to an end by mid-morning as the low level jet moves on. VFR conditions are expected to continue through this afternoon, with mainly mid and high level clouds overhead.

Increasing low level moisture ahead of approaching low pressure will lead to the development of low clouds this evening into tonight. Could see some lower visibilities later tonight into Monday as the low moves overhead.

Should be enough moisture for some light rain or drizzle late evening this and overnight. Better chance for rain vs drizzle in the southeast forecast area. Not out of the question to see a little freezing drizzle in the north given shallow saturation and surface temps around freezing.

PREV DISCUSSION . (Issued 341 AM CST Sun Dec 8 2019)

DISCUSSION .

Today through Monday . Forecast confidence is medium to high:

Mainly mid and high level cloud are expected today in advance of low pressure over the plains. Expecting enough filtered sunshine for highs into the 40s . about 10 degrees above average highs for the second week of December. Breezy southwest winds will ease by evening as the pressure gradient loosens across the state.

The low will reach around the IA/IL border by Monday morning. Moisture will increase in advance of this system tonight, though mainly confined to the lowest 10 kft. Should be enough moisture for some light rain or drizzle late evening and overnight. Better chance for rain vs drizzle in the southeast forecast area. Not out of the question to see a little freezing drizzle in the north given shallow saturation and surface temps around freezing.

The low will then move southwest to northeast across southern Wisconsin on Monday, bringing more light precipitation chances. Could see some reduced visibilities late tonight into Monday with the low overhead, but wasn't confident enough to put fog in the forecast just yet. Overall, precip type tomorrow should be rain changing to snow as colder air rushes in on the back side of the low. Some mid-level dry air may hang around though, possibly leading to some freezing rain/drizzle as surface temps fall below freezing. Not expecting much of an impact from this given milder temps much of the day. Snow accumulations will be a dusting at best . mainly in the northwest.

Monday night through Wednesday . Forecast confidence is high.

The precip will be exiting quickly during the evening. Soundings suggest we will be losing dendrite ice for a time, so will need to continue the mention of a period of light freezing precip. Amounts and duration are rather small, so not expecting much impact. This should all be gone by late evening.

Dry, but very cold conditions are then expected for Tuesday and Wednesday. The previous forecasts still look good with the coldest day expected on Wednesday. Wind chill readings Wed morning will range from 20 to 15 below north of Milwaukee and Madison to 10 to 5 below to the south.

Thursday through Sunday . Forecast confidence is medium.

The mid level flow continues to show a more zonal configuration by Thursday, bringing modifying temps for the remainder of the week and into the weekend. The models naturally are struggling with embedded short waves in that faster flow . differing in timing and influence. It appears one may move through later on Thursday, possibly generating some very light snow.

The best agreement seems to be on a sharper wave arriving Saturday into Saturday night. The better surface cyclogenesis continues to evolve east of Wisconsin, so we should just have a chance for some light snow next weekend. Unless the low backs up, any qpf/snow accums will be very light. Temps will climb from the 20s on Thursday to more normal levels the mid 30s thereafter.

AVIATION(09Z TAFS) .

Gusty southwest winds will ease later today, with the low level wind shear coming to an end by mid-morning as the low level jet moves on. VFR conditions are expected to continue through this afternoon, with mainly mid and high level clouds overhead.

Increasing low level moisture ahead of approaching low pressure will lead to the development of low clouds this evening into tonight. Could see some lower visibilities later tonight into Monday as the low moves overhead.

Should be enough moisture for some light rain or drizzle late evening this and overnight. Better chance for rain vs drizzle in the southeast forecast area. Not out of the question to see a little freezing drizzle in the north given shallow saturation and surface temps around freezing.

MARINE .

Low pressure over Hudson bay will lift northeast today, with another low sliding east to around the IA/IL border tonight. This second low will move across Lake Michigan on Monday. Gale force winds will persist over the open waters this morning into early afternoon as the Hudson Bay low pulls away. Small Craft Advisory conditions will persist in the afternoon across the nearshore waters.

Winds will become lighter tonight into Monday as the southern low approaches and moves over the lake. Stronger north to northwest winds will develop later Monday into Monday night behind the departing low, with breezy westerly winds lingering Tuesday. A much colder airmass will follow which will lead to freezing spray at times through mid-week.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. LM . Gale Warning until 2 PM CST this afternoon for LMZ080-261-362- 364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-870-872-874- 876-878.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for LMZ643>646.

Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine . DDV Monday through Saturday . Davis


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 0 mi36 min WSW 11 G 15 42°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 26 mi66 min WSW 7 G 13 44°F 1010.5 hPa
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 29 mi46 min SW 9.9 G 18 42°F 1010.5 hPa (-1.4)

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI4 mi54 minSW 15 G 239.00 miOvercast43°F34°F71%1010 hPa
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI12 mi61 minSW 13 G 1810.00 miClear41°F30°F66%1009.5 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI17 mi61 minSW 6 G 1810.00 miClear39°F32°F75%1009.5 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI18 mi53 minSW 11 G 197.00 miA Few Clouds44°F35°F71%1010.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMKE

Wind History from MKE (wind in knots)
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1 day agoN8NW9N7N4N3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW5S4SW3SW4S6SW8SW7SW6S5S6S7S10SW11SW11
2 days agoS7S84S8S3S5S5S5S4SW6SW5W5W7NW10N16
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.