Thursday, April2, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
St. Francis, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:28AMSunset 7:20PM Thursday April 2, 2020 11:05 AM CDT (16:05 UTC) Moonrise 12:44PMMoonset 3:26AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ645 North Point Light To Wind Point Wi- 905 Am Cdt Thu Apr 2 2020
Rest of today..East wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Tonight..East wind 5 to 10 knots easing to 5 knots after midnight, then backing northeast early in the morning. Slight chance of rain after midnight. Waves nearly calm.
Friday..East wind 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Slight chance of rain in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday night..Southeast wind 5 to 15 knots becoming 5 to 10 knots late in the evening, then veering south after midnight veering west early in the morning. Chance of rain through around midnight, then rain likely after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ645 Expires:202004022200;;457659 FZUS53 KMKX 021405 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 905 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ645-022200-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Francis, WI
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location: 43.01, -87.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 021526 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1026 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020

UPDATE.

Mostly sunny skies will continue across the eastern half of the area this morning and afternoon, however will likely see the mid- level clouds to the west gradually spread eastward later today. Otherwise, can expect light winds and mild temps today with rain chance increasing on Friday. No major changes were made to the forecast at this time.

MARINE.

Marine dense fog has expanded across the southeastern portions of the Lake this morning. Fog with visibility of one mile or less may likely continue into the afternoon for areas south of a line from Holland MI to Wilmette Harbor IL. Am beginning to see some of the fog beginning to dissipate on satellite, especially across the southern half, but will continue to monitor to see if the marine dense could be canceled early.

Otherwise, light winds and quiet conditions are expected for our marine zones today before rain chances increase on Friday and winds shift from the east to the southwest. A cold front is expected to push through later on Friday and then winds shift to the north-northwest with small craft advisory conditions possible on Saturday for the nearshore waters.

PREV DISCUSSION. (Issued 623 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020)

UPDATE .

No changes to the previous discussion.

AVIATION(12Z TAFS) .

Any patchy fog will diminish shortly after sunrise. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected into Friday. Light and variable winds will become more southeasterly by this afternoon. Ceilings are expected to drop to around 6-8kft late tonight. Some light rain showers will be possible with these lower clouds mainly from MSN and westward.

PREV DISCUSSION . (Issued 317 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020)

SHORT TERM .

Today through Friday . Forecast Confidence is High .

High pressure will dominate our weather regime today into tonight, before eroding as a weak, elongated trough of low pressure enters from the west Friday. Early morning patchy ground fog is expected in the usual locales, which will quickly erode after daybreak. A mix of sun and clouds is expected today, with a little more in the way of sun over the eastern half of the area this morning. Mid/high level clouds will be on the increase this afternoon. Easterly flow and decent mixing will result in dewpoints lower than raw models indicate and sided with MOS values.

The forecast challenge tonight and Friday will be with the increasing moisture versus the dry, low level easterly flow. Will maintain increasing PoPs this evening over southwestern WI, gradually moving eastward after midnight. Any rain we get tonight should be on the light side as this first push of rain will tend to fall apart as it moves across southern WI.

The next chance for rain will be with the approaching front Friday. Once again, there are concerns about the dry, low level easterly flow in place. Gut feeling is that timing may have to be moved back, especially for areas east of Madison, where much of the day may end up being dry. Will maintain higher PoPs in southwestern WI, closer to the influence of the front.

LONG TERM .

Friday Night through Sunday . Forecast Confidence is Medium to High .

Rain Friday night will follow along the surface boundary from west to east into Saturday morning. There is not much in the way of forcing in the upper levels, but the surface frontogenesis should provide enough lift for a wet night. There is some uncertainty with the exact timing of the front, but do expect Saturday afternoon to be dry. With low precipitable water values and high pressure moving in Saturday night into Sunday, the weekend should be pleasant. We'll see a return of sunny skies by Sunday.

Sunday Night through Thursday . Forecast Confidence is Medium .

We move into an area of warm air advection Monday with highs getting into the low 60s for the southwest and south central Wisconsin. Unfortunately with warm moist air returning to the state we'll see chances for showers continue on and off until the front moves through Tuesday night. There even could be a few thunderstorms Monday afternoon into Tuesday with a few hundred J/kg of CAPE available. We'll dry out behind the front Wednesday with mostly quiet conditions into the end of the week.

AVIATION(09Z TAFS) .

Aside from patchy ground fog through daybreak, conditions are expected to remain VFR through the next 24 hours. Patchy mid level clouds will continue to slowly dissipate through this morning north and west of Madison. High level clouds will then stream into the area from midday onward. Light and variable winds early this morning will give way to light southeast winds through the day today.

MARINE .

Primary issue continues to be areas of dense fog across the far southern portion of the lake. This will persist through the mid morning hours before dissipating. High pressure in place will maintain quiet weather conditions into Friday. Winds will be light and variable early this morning, before shifting to the east and then southeast through the day today. A cold front will slowly pass through the lake Friday and Friday night, shifting winds to the northwest. High pressure builds back into the area later Saturday, bringing quiet weather through the remainder of the weekend.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. LM . Dense Fog Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LMZ080-779- 876-878.



Update . Wagner Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine . Wagner Friday THROUGH Wednesday . RAH


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 0 mi56 min ESE 2.9 G 2.9 39°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 26 mi86 min E 2.9 G 2.9 42°F 1024 hPa
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 29 mi66 min ESE 2.9 G 4.1 41°F 1023 hPa (+0.6)

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI4 mi74 minSE 710.00 miA Few Clouds47°F34°F61%1023.2 hPa
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI12 mi81 minSE 310.00 miClear46°F33°F62%1023 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI17 mi81 minS 510.00 miClear45°F35°F71%1022.7 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI18 mi73 minSE 510.00 miFair45°F35°F68%1023.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMKE

Wind History from MKE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN76NE9NE8NE9NE9NE6NE4NE5E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE7E6
1 day agoN14N13
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N11N11N9N10N6N6N5N5N8N11NE10N8NE9N9
2 days agoNW10N11
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NW9NW8E7E7E8NE8E6E7NE8N6N7NE10N11N9N9N9N12
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.