Tuesday, December10, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Wilmington, VT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 4:16PM Tuesday December 10, 2019 9:23 PM EST (02:23 UTC) Moonrise 4:29PMMoonset 6:17AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wilmington, VT
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location: 43.02, -72.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 102356 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 656 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will continue to move across the area this evening. Behind the cold front, colder air will return to the region and some lingering moisture will allow for a period of light snow for tonight into early Wednesday for southern areas. With much colder air back into the region, some lake effect snow will develop for northern and western parts of the area for late Wednesday through early Thursday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/. As of 655 PM EST . Cold front has passed through almost the entire area except for Litchfield CT. FROPA will occur there in the next 1- 2 hours. Temperatures have dropped into the 30s behind the front, with even some 20s now showing up in parts of the western Adirondacks. Precip falling now mainly across the western New England the southern Taconics to near Poughkeepsie. Rain is still occurring in lower elevations south of Albany, with snow in the higher terrain.

As the front continues to slowly sag south and east of the Albany Forecast Area tonight, a wave of low pressure will move up the boundary. This wave of low pressure, aided by a strong 170+ kt jet streak over the Northeast will allow for some additional precip tonight into early Wednesday. Models have come into agreement that most of this precip will be across the southeastern half of the forecast area so a period of light snow is expected across the Catskills, mid Hudson Valley, Taconics, southern Berkshires, NW CT and possibly as far north as southern Vermont.

Initially, the boundary layer may be warm enough for this precip to be rain, especially in the valleys, but it should quickly cool to allow for precip to be snow across our area by 10 PM to Midnight. Although snowfall rates don't look excessive, steady light snow is expected for late tonight through mid-morning on Wednesday. Total snow for the southeastern Catskills, mid Hudson Valley, southern Berkshires and southern Taconics will be about a coating to two inches (locally up to 3 inches in southeastern Dutchess County). Meanwhile, NW CT should see two to four inches of snowfall, so continue to have them in a Winter Weather Advisory. This snowfall will impact early part the morning commute on Wednesday, allowing for hazardous travel due to snow covered roads and low visibility.

Farther north and west, skies will be clearing out as temperatures falling for tonight. Lows will be in the teens and 20s, with the coldest temperatures across the Adirondacks where skies will clear out first. Any untreated surfaces that remain wet from earlier rainfall may become slick due to temperatures below freezing so caution will need to be taken for those venturing out tonight.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. On Wednesday morning, any lingering light snow across southeastern areas will be ending, and skies will continue clearing across the entire area. It will be noticeably colder for Wednesday with highs only in the mid 20s to mid 30s. Winds will be increasing through the day and it will be breezy by late in the day, making it feel even colder.

Much colder air will be arriving aloft for Wednesday evening into Wednesday night as a secondary boundary passes through the region. 850 hpa temps will be as low as -18 C across northern areas by late Wednesday night behind this northern stream clipper system. This will set the stage for rounds of both lake enhanced snow showers along the frontal boundary and also true lake effect snowfall behind the front.

The initial band of lake enhanced snow showers will be located northwest of the area across the St. Lawrence Valley and northwestern Adirondacks, but will start shifting towards our area after 00z Thursday. 00z HREF suggest snowfall rates may exceed 1" per hour as the band reaches the western Adirondacks, but the band should be moving fairly quickly thanks to the shifting winds, so snowfall totals at any one location look limited, with just one to three inches for the western Adirondacks (including the Old Forge area).

Behind the initial band of lake enhanced snow, another band of lake effect snow will develop within the northwesterly flow for the Mohawk Valley for later Wednesday night. This band of snow could have an upstream multi-lake connection and could reach across the entire Mohawk Valley and possibly into the Capital Region as well. Accumulation looks to be coating to an inch or two, with the highest totals in western areas. Some lake effect may linger into Thursday morning, but should be decreasing in intensity and extension as inversion heights start to lower thanks to an approaching area of high pressure. Overnight lows on Wed night look to be in the teens for the whole area.

On Thursday into Thursday night, dry weather (after any lake effect ends) is expected for the entire region thanks to a strong area of high pressure passing across the area. Skies should be fairly clear, but temps will remain cold. Highs will be in the 20s and remain below freezing for the entire region on Thursday. Lows look to fall into the teens for Thursday night.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. The period starts out on Friday with surface high pressure shifting well east of the New England, with and upper level ridge in place along the east coast. This should result in dry conditions through the day on Friday. However, a storm system developing along the coastal Carolinas with a southerly flow up the east coast is expected to track northward into our region Friday night through Saturday. There is fairly good agreement among guidance thus far, with anomalously strong southerly winds at 850 mb and anomalously high PWATs moving in starting Friday night. Initially, there may be enough cold air in place for a wintry mix, especially rain/snow in the higher terrain. As warmer air moves in, precip will likely change to rain across the entire area by Saturday. The main concern with this system is the potential for heavy rain and possible flooding given already relatively high river levels and additional snow melt. Will begin mention of heavy rain and possible flooding in the HWO.

The system looks to be pretty progressive, with both GFS/ECMWF showing the main surface cyclone tracking into northern New England by Saturday evening. Cold air advection will commence Saturday night, as the surface cyclone pulls away and the upper level trough moves in from the west. There could be some accumulating upslope and/or lake effect snow in the westerly flow into Sunday, especially in the western Adirondacks and southern Green Mountains with scattered snow showers elsewhere. It will turn breezy and colder through Sunday night.

Monday looks to be a dry and seasonably cold day as high pressure builds in across the area. However, the next chance of precip quickly arrives Monday night into Tuesday as another storm system approaches from the south and west. Depending on the storm track, which is highly uncertain at this time, more in the way of frozen precip could occur especially given the more easterly track depiction of the ECMWF. This potential storm is still a week out, so will monitor changes in model guidance over the next several days.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Cold front has pushed south of all of the TAF sites as of 00Z. Northwest winds will usher in colder air, with snow already occurring at KPSF. Rain will change to snow at KPOU between 03Z-05Z. Steady snow will likely not make it as far north as KALB, with generally MVFR/VFR conditions there and at KGFL through this evening, then VFR overnight. IFR conditions expected at KPOU/KPSF once snow commences, although there may be some time where only flurries are falling at KPSF, while the steadiest snow occurs at KPOU. Snow should end between 10Z-11Z, with VFR conditions quickly returning and then prevailing through the rest of Wednesday.

Winds will generally be northwest around 5-10 kt, becoming westerly on Wednesday.

Outlook .

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA. Saturday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy Chance of SHRA.

HYDROLOGY. As temperatures cool off, runoff should slow down for tonight into tomorrow. Some additional precipitation in the form of snow is expected for southern areas, but this will not have any immediate impact on rivers and streams. For the remainder of the work week, rivers and streams will recede. However, another storm may bring more moderate to significant rain to the region for the weekend, which will cause rivers and streams to rise once again and some flooding is again possible.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including latest observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Wednesday for CTZ001-013. NY . None. MA . None. VT . None.

SYNOPSIS . SND NEAR TERM . SND/Frugis/BGM/JPV SHORT TERM . SND/Frugis LONG TERM . JPV AVIATION . JPV HYDROLOGY . SND/Frugis


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 88 mi53 min Calm 38°F 1016 hPa37°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bennington Morse State Airport, VT21 mi29 minSW 810.00 miOvercast34°F30°F85%1015.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDDH

Wind History from DDH (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:30 AM EST     4.10 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:20 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:04 AM EST     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:32 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:53 PM EST     5.25 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:20 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 10:46 PM EST     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.72.83.5443.42.41.610.3-0.20.31.73.24.355.24.83.82.821.10.2-0.1

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:22 AM EST     4.10 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:20 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:54 AM EST     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:33 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:45 PM EST     5.25 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:21 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 10:36 PM EST     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.92.93.64.143.22.31.50.90.1-0.20.51.93.44.45.15.24.73.62.61.80.90.1-0.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.