Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for St. Johnsville, NY
December 10, 2023 9:51 PM EST (02:51 UTC)
Sunrise 7:16AM Sunset 4:24PM Moonrise 5:49AM Moonset 3:32PM
Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 110237 AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 937 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023
SYNOPSIS
Rain into this evening will change over to wet snow across most areas overnight into tomorrow morning as colder air returns with some moderate to heavy accumulations, especially across the higher elevations. Windy conditions develop tomorrow with snow tapering off during the afternoon hours, though some lake-effect and upslope snow showers will continue in some areas into tomorrow night.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
A storm system will bring a combination of rain, locally heavy, snow and wind to the region through Monday...
UPDATE...As of 930 PM EST, cold front was located across eastern portions of the mid Hudson Valley extending into NW Litchfield County, CT. A band of heavy rain, and briefly gusty winds was occurring along the front, with some wind gusts up to 35 mph noted at KPOU.
Rainfall rates have ranged from 0.25-0.50/hour across the mid Hudson Valley, SW MA and NW CT per NYS Mesonet obs and ASOS's.
Rainfall rates were less farther north and west, generally between one and two tenths of an inch/hour closer to the Capital Region and NE Catskills, and around 0.10"/hour farther north and west.
Precipitation has changed to snow across the SW Adirondacks per NYS Mesonet webcams, with the snow level around or just under 1500 FT.
Over the next 3 hours, we expect the area of heavy rain across the mid Hudson Valley/southern Taconics to continue shifting eastward into Litchfield and southern Berkshire County, with steady light to moderate rain continuing farther north and west into the eastern Catskills, Capital Region and southern VT. Snow levels will continue to slowly drop across the western Adirondacks and eastern Catskills. Some snowfall rates of up to an inch/hour will be possible across some of the higher elevations above 1500 feet.
Otherwise, earlier forecast remains on track.
PREVIOUS [349 PM EST]...Cold front associated with an area of low pressure across northern Quebec continues to slowly push eastward across the region and is crossing the Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley approaching the Hudson Valley and eastern Catskills. Temperatures remain in the 40s and 50s ahead of the front and have fallen into the lower 40s behind the front. A widespread light to occasionally moderate rainfall continues across the region. Rainfall totals so far have been under 0.50 inches. As the upper- level trough upstream from the Upper Great Lakes to the Deep South goes from a neutral to negative tilt and we get positioned within the right entrance region of a 160+ kt upper- level jet, precipitation will continue to expand and increase in intensity tonight into Monday morning. In addition, a secondary area of low pressure will develop along the mid- Atlantic coast this evening and track north- northeastward toward eastern New England through Monday.
Rain will continue into this evening, then a changeover to wet snow will start across the Adirondacks as colder air advances eastward. The transition from rain to wet snow will then continue to slowly advance eastward through the night with higher elevations changing over before valley areas. Prior to the changeover to snow, some locally heavy rain remains possible, especially across areas south and east of Albany, where the potential for some localized flooding and river flooding remain. Elsewhere, flood issues are expected to be minimal.
Upon the arrival of snow, it will be of wet and heavy consistency and could fall at a decent rate at times. Many areas could see snowfall rates of around 0.50 of an inch per hour, though localized rates up to 1 inch cannot be ruled out. Most areas will have changed over to snow by the early morning hours on Monday, which could lead to slippery and slushy travel during the morning commute. Some reduced visibilities from the snow are possible as well.
Forecast snowfall amounts have not changed too much compared to last night. Still looking at 5 to 10 inches of snow across many higher terrain areas including the Adirondacks, Catskills and southern Greens. Elsewhere, a 2 to 5 inch snowfall is expected with a couple of inches or less across the mid-Hudson Valley, Litchfield County, CT and the Connecticut River Valley of eastern Windham County. No changes to Winter Storm Warnings or Winter Weather Advisories as of this update. Trends will be monitored throughout the night whether or not any zones would need to be upgraded. With air temperatures, especially in the valleys, falling into the 32 to 35 degree range, there is uncertainty on how efficient snow will accumulate onto surfaces resulting in a lower confidence forecast. Intensity of the snow will also be a factor as a steadier snow will be easier to accumulate versus a lighter snow, which could melt more easily on warmer paved/ground surfaces.
As the low departs to the north on Monday, precipitation will gradually taper off from south to north, but lake-effect and upslope snow showers will continue through Monday afternoon with additional light accumulations possible across the Adirondacks, western Mohawk Valley and into the higher terrain east of the Hudson Valley.
It will become windy on Monday with west to northwesterly winds gusting between 30 and 40 mph, especially along the Mohawk Valley into the Capital District and Berkshires. This could result in unsecured objects, such as outdoor decorations, to be blown around. In addition, the weight of snow on trees combined with the gusty winds could increase the potential for some downed trees and power lines. As a result, a few power outages will be possible.
High temperatures Monday will not rise too much with many areas stuck in the 30s, though a few valley locations could rebound to the lower 40s.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
As the upper-level trough axis departs, any lingering snow showers should gradually taper off Monday night and Tuesday as flow backs to a more southwesterly direction. Mainly dry weather is expected on Tuesday with high pressure to our south. Some sunshine is also expected on Tuesday.
Low temperatures Monday night will generally range from the upper teens to upper 20s with highs Tuesday in the 30s to lower 40s.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
The extended forecast period opens with broad troughing over the forecast area in association with an upper-level low and surface cyclone positioned in the southern Hudson Bay. Some lake effect snow showers will be generated along and ahead of its southwestward- extending cold front Tuesday evening which will linger through Thursday morning with upper energy pulsing around the base of the trough after the cold front exits Wednesday morning. Most of these snow showers will be confined to the Western Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley, though a stray shower or two will be possible in the Upper- Hudson Valley. High pressure then builds in at the surface from the south and west, inflicting dry weather through at least Friday before a shortwave and cold front moves through the region and brings some light snow showers to the Western Adirondacks. Both of the aforementioned snow-inducing disturbances will be fairly moisture starved, so accumulations are expected to be light. Dry conditions will then return for Sunday.
High temperatures Wednesday and Thursday will be fairly chilly thanks to the progression of the cold front. Expect mid to upper 30s in valley areas with upper 20s to low 30s above 1000 ft Wednesday with low to upper 30s and mid to upper 20s above 1000 ft Thursday. A warm front ahead of the late-week cold front will pass through the region overnight Thursday into Friday morning which, in tandem with the antecedent high and westerly flow, will force a bit of a warm up heading into the weekend.
Friday through Sunday, temperatures will therefore be a bit above normal for mid-December in the 30s and 40s.
AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Through 00Z Tuesday...cold front has already passed through KGFL and KALB, and should track through KPSF over the next hour, and KPOU between 01Z-02Z/Mon.
Meanwhile, widespread light to moderate rain continues across the terminals, with some embedded heavier downpours tracking toward KPOU. Expect rain, moderate to heavy at times through midnight at KPOU, KPSF and KALB, with light/moderate rain at KGFL. Overall flight conditions should be MVFR, although some periods of IFR Cigs/Vsbys will be possible during this time, especially at KPOU.
Rain will transition to snow between 08-11Z Mon, with a period of moderate to heavy snow possibly resulting in LIFR conditions at ALB/GFL/PSF. POU will be more likely to see persistent rain/snow mix or all rain, so have maintained IFR vsbys/cigs.
Precipitation coverage should decrease between 14Z-16Z/Mon, although some lingering rain/snow showers could occur well into the afternoon as KALB and KPSF.
Winds ahead of the front will remain south to southeast at 8-12 KT with possible gusts up to 20-25 KT at KPSF/KPOU. Once the front passes, winds will shift into the west/northwest, then north/northwest at 8-12 KT with gusts of 20-25 KT developing later this evening. Winds will back slightly into the west/northwest and increase to 10-15 KT with gusts of 25-30 KT possible later Monday morning into the afternoon, strongest at KALB and KPSF.
Low level wind shear will persist until the front passes at KPOU and KPSF.
Outlook...
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
HYDROLOGY
A storm system will bring a combination of rain, locally heavy, snow and wind to the region through Monday.
The heaviest rainfall is still expected to occur across areas mainly south and east of Albany where 1.50 to 3.00 inches of rain will be possible with locally higher amounts. Areas south and east of Albany continue to be outlooked in a slight risk for excessive rainfall from the Weather Prediction Center through tonight.
Minor urban and poor drainage flooding remains possible, especially for areas south and east of Albany overnight into tomorrow morning. In addition, minor river flooding remains possible across portions of western New England including the Hoosic and Housatonic rivers. The threat for any minor areal or river flooding elsewhere is decreasing, but will be monitored overnight.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Flood Watch through Monday evening for CTZ001-013.
NY...Flood Watch through Monday evening for NYZ047-051>054-058>061- 063>066.
Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Monday for NYZ039>043-048>054-061-082>084.
Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for NYZ032-033-038- 047-058-063.
MA...Flood Watch through Monday evening for MAZ001-025.
Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Monday for MAZ001-025.
VT...Flood Watch through Monday evening for VTZ013>015.
Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for VTZ013- 014.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 937 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023
SYNOPSIS
Rain into this evening will change over to wet snow across most areas overnight into tomorrow morning as colder air returns with some moderate to heavy accumulations, especially across the higher elevations. Windy conditions develop tomorrow with snow tapering off during the afternoon hours, though some lake-effect and upslope snow showers will continue in some areas into tomorrow night.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
A storm system will bring a combination of rain, locally heavy, snow and wind to the region through Monday...
UPDATE...As of 930 PM EST, cold front was located across eastern portions of the mid Hudson Valley extending into NW Litchfield County, CT. A band of heavy rain, and briefly gusty winds was occurring along the front, with some wind gusts up to 35 mph noted at KPOU.
Rainfall rates have ranged from 0.25-0.50/hour across the mid Hudson Valley, SW MA and NW CT per NYS Mesonet obs and ASOS's.
Rainfall rates were less farther north and west, generally between one and two tenths of an inch/hour closer to the Capital Region and NE Catskills, and around 0.10"/hour farther north and west.
Precipitation has changed to snow across the SW Adirondacks per NYS Mesonet webcams, with the snow level around or just under 1500 FT.
Over the next 3 hours, we expect the area of heavy rain across the mid Hudson Valley/southern Taconics to continue shifting eastward into Litchfield and southern Berkshire County, with steady light to moderate rain continuing farther north and west into the eastern Catskills, Capital Region and southern VT. Snow levels will continue to slowly drop across the western Adirondacks and eastern Catskills. Some snowfall rates of up to an inch/hour will be possible across some of the higher elevations above 1500 feet.
Otherwise, earlier forecast remains on track.
PREVIOUS [349 PM EST]...Cold front associated with an area of low pressure across northern Quebec continues to slowly push eastward across the region and is crossing the Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley approaching the Hudson Valley and eastern Catskills. Temperatures remain in the 40s and 50s ahead of the front and have fallen into the lower 40s behind the front. A widespread light to occasionally moderate rainfall continues across the region. Rainfall totals so far have been under 0.50 inches. As the upper- level trough upstream from the Upper Great Lakes to the Deep South goes from a neutral to negative tilt and we get positioned within the right entrance region of a 160+ kt upper- level jet, precipitation will continue to expand and increase in intensity tonight into Monday morning. In addition, a secondary area of low pressure will develop along the mid- Atlantic coast this evening and track north- northeastward toward eastern New England through Monday.
Rain will continue into this evening, then a changeover to wet snow will start across the Adirondacks as colder air advances eastward. The transition from rain to wet snow will then continue to slowly advance eastward through the night with higher elevations changing over before valley areas. Prior to the changeover to snow, some locally heavy rain remains possible, especially across areas south and east of Albany, where the potential for some localized flooding and river flooding remain. Elsewhere, flood issues are expected to be minimal.
Upon the arrival of snow, it will be of wet and heavy consistency and could fall at a decent rate at times. Many areas could see snowfall rates of around 0.50 of an inch per hour, though localized rates up to 1 inch cannot be ruled out. Most areas will have changed over to snow by the early morning hours on Monday, which could lead to slippery and slushy travel during the morning commute. Some reduced visibilities from the snow are possible as well.
Forecast snowfall amounts have not changed too much compared to last night. Still looking at 5 to 10 inches of snow across many higher terrain areas including the Adirondacks, Catskills and southern Greens. Elsewhere, a 2 to 5 inch snowfall is expected with a couple of inches or less across the mid-Hudson Valley, Litchfield County, CT and the Connecticut River Valley of eastern Windham County. No changes to Winter Storm Warnings or Winter Weather Advisories as of this update. Trends will be monitored throughout the night whether or not any zones would need to be upgraded. With air temperatures, especially in the valleys, falling into the 32 to 35 degree range, there is uncertainty on how efficient snow will accumulate onto surfaces resulting in a lower confidence forecast. Intensity of the snow will also be a factor as a steadier snow will be easier to accumulate versus a lighter snow, which could melt more easily on warmer paved/ground surfaces.
As the low departs to the north on Monday, precipitation will gradually taper off from south to north, but lake-effect and upslope snow showers will continue through Monday afternoon with additional light accumulations possible across the Adirondacks, western Mohawk Valley and into the higher terrain east of the Hudson Valley.
It will become windy on Monday with west to northwesterly winds gusting between 30 and 40 mph, especially along the Mohawk Valley into the Capital District and Berkshires. This could result in unsecured objects, such as outdoor decorations, to be blown around. In addition, the weight of snow on trees combined with the gusty winds could increase the potential for some downed trees and power lines. As a result, a few power outages will be possible.
High temperatures Monday will not rise too much with many areas stuck in the 30s, though a few valley locations could rebound to the lower 40s.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
As the upper-level trough axis departs, any lingering snow showers should gradually taper off Monday night and Tuesday as flow backs to a more southwesterly direction. Mainly dry weather is expected on Tuesday with high pressure to our south. Some sunshine is also expected on Tuesday.
Low temperatures Monday night will generally range from the upper teens to upper 20s with highs Tuesday in the 30s to lower 40s.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
The extended forecast period opens with broad troughing over the forecast area in association with an upper-level low and surface cyclone positioned in the southern Hudson Bay. Some lake effect snow showers will be generated along and ahead of its southwestward- extending cold front Tuesday evening which will linger through Thursday morning with upper energy pulsing around the base of the trough after the cold front exits Wednesday morning. Most of these snow showers will be confined to the Western Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley, though a stray shower or two will be possible in the Upper- Hudson Valley. High pressure then builds in at the surface from the south and west, inflicting dry weather through at least Friday before a shortwave and cold front moves through the region and brings some light snow showers to the Western Adirondacks. Both of the aforementioned snow-inducing disturbances will be fairly moisture starved, so accumulations are expected to be light. Dry conditions will then return for Sunday.
High temperatures Wednesday and Thursday will be fairly chilly thanks to the progression of the cold front. Expect mid to upper 30s in valley areas with upper 20s to low 30s above 1000 ft Wednesday with low to upper 30s and mid to upper 20s above 1000 ft Thursday. A warm front ahead of the late-week cold front will pass through the region overnight Thursday into Friday morning which, in tandem with the antecedent high and westerly flow, will force a bit of a warm up heading into the weekend.
Friday through Sunday, temperatures will therefore be a bit above normal for mid-December in the 30s and 40s.
AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Through 00Z Tuesday...cold front has already passed through KGFL and KALB, and should track through KPSF over the next hour, and KPOU between 01Z-02Z/Mon.
Meanwhile, widespread light to moderate rain continues across the terminals, with some embedded heavier downpours tracking toward KPOU. Expect rain, moderate to heavy at times through midnight at KPOU, KPSF and KALB, with light/moderate rain at KGFL. Overall flight conditions should be MVFR, although some periods of IFR Cigs/Vsbys will be possible during this time, especially at KPOU.
Rain will transition to snow between 08-11Z Mon, with a period of moderate to heavy snow possibly resulting in LIFR conditions at ALB/GFL/PSF. POU will be more likely to see persistent rain/snow mix or all rain, so have maintained IFR vsbys/cigs.
Precipitation coverage should decrease between 14Z-16Z/Mon, although some lingering rain/snow showers could occur well into the afternoon as KALB and KPSF.
Winds ahead of the front will remain south to southeast at 8-12 KT with possible gusts up to 20-25 KT at KPSF/KPOU. Once the front passes, winds will shift into the west/northwest, then north/northwest at 8-12 KT with gusts of 20-25 KT developing later this evening. Winds will back slightly into the west/northwest and increase to 10-15 KT with gusts of 25-30 KT possible later Monday morning into the afternoon, strongest at KALB and KPSF.
Low level wind shear will persist until the front passes at KPOU and KPSF.
Outlook...
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
HYDROLOGY
A storm system will bring a combination of rain, locally heavy, snow and wind to the region through Monday.
The heaviest rainfall is still expected to occur across areas mainly south and east of Albany where 1.50 to 3.00 inches of rain will be possible with locally higher amounts. Areas south and east of Albany continue to be outlooked in a slight risk for excessive rainfall from the Weather Prediction Center through tonight.
Minor urban and poor drainage flooding remains possible, especially for areas south and east of Albany overnight into tomorrow morning. In addition, minor river flooding remains possible across portions of western New England including the Hoosic and Housatonic rivers. The threat for any minor areal or river flooding elsewhere is decreasing, but will be monitored overnight.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Flood Watch through Monday evening for CTZ001-013.
NY...Flood Watch through Monday evening for NYZ047-051>054-058>061- 063>066.
Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Monday for NYZ039>043-048>054-061-082>084.
Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for NYZ032-033-038- 047-058-063.
MA...Flood Watch through Monday evening for MAZ001-025.
Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Monday for MAZ001-025.
VT...Flood Watch through Monday evening for VTZ013>015.
Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for VTZ013- 014.
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Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Wind History from SCH
(wind in knots)Albany
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:30 AM EST 3.90 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:43 AM EST Moonrise
Sun -- 07:13 AM EST Sunrise
Sun -- 09:11 AM EST -0.01 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:30 PM EST Moonset
Sun -- 03:07 PM EST 5.19 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:21 PM EST Sunset
Sun -- 09:53 PM EST 0.01 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:30 AM EST 3.90 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:43 AM EST Moonrise
Sun -- 07:13 AM EST Sunrise
Sun -- 09:11 AM EST -0.01 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:30 PM EST Moonset
Sun -- 03:07 PM EST 5.19 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:21 PM EST Sunset
Sun -- 09:53 PM EST 0.01 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Albany, New York, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2.7 |
| 1 am |
| 3.4 |
| 2 am |
| 3.8 |
| 3 am |
| 3.8 |
| 4 am |
| 3.2 |
| 5 am |
| 2.3 |
| 6 am |
| 1.6 |
| 7 am |
| 1.1 |
| 8 am |
| 0.5 |
| 9 am |
| 0 |
| 10 am |
| 0.3 |
| 11 am |
| 1.5 |
| 12 pm |
| 2.9 |
| 1 pm |
| 4.1 |
| 2 pm |
| 4.8 |
| 3 pm |
| 5.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 4.9 |
| 5 pm |
| 4 |
| 6 pm |
| 3 |
| 7 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 10 pm |
| 0 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.6 |
Troy
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:38 AM EST 3.90 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:43 AM EST Moonrise
Sun -- 07:14 AM EST Sunrise
Sun -- 09:21 AM EST -0.01 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:29 PM EST Moonset
Sun -- 03:15 PM EST 5.19 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:20 PM EST Sunset
Sun -- 10:03 PM EST 0.01 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:38 AM EST 3.90 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:43 AM EST Moonrise
Sun -- 07:14 AM EST Sunrise
Sun -- 09:21 AM EST -0.01 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:29 PM EST Moonset
Sun -- 03:15 PM EST 5.19 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:20 PM EST Sunset
Sun -- 10:03 PM EST 0.01 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Troy, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2.6 |
| 1 am |
| 3.4 |
| 2 am |
| 3.8 |
| 3 am |
| 3.9 |
| 4 am |
| 3.4 |
| 5 am |
| 2.5 |
| 6 am |
| 1.7 |
| 7 am |
| 1.1 |
| 8 am |
| 0.6 |
| 9 am |
| 0 |
| 10 am |
| 0.2 |
| 11 am |
| 1.3 |
| 12 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 1 pm |
| 3.9 |
| 2 pm |
| 4.7 |
| 3 pm |
| 5.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 5 |
| 5 pm |
| 4.2 |
| 6 pm |
| 3.1 |
| 7 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 10 pm |
| 0 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.5 |
Albany, NY,
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