Friday, December6, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Flint, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:49AMSunset 5:01PM Friday December 6, 2019 1:39 AM EST (06:39 UTC) Moonrise 2:26PMMoonset 1:54AM Illumination 69% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 931 Pm Est Thu Dec 5 2019
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy. A chance of light snow in the evening, then light snow likely and a slight chance of light rain after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. Light snow likely in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots early in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201912060415;;917275 FZUS53 KDTX 060231 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 931 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-060415-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Flint, MI
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location: 43.02, -83.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 060525 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1225 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

AVIATION.

Weak low pressure and the associated cold front continue sliding across Lower Michigan during the late night. VFR precedes the front with a few flurries possible toward mbS followed by MVFR ceiling shortly after the frontal passage spreading NW to SE over the region around sunrise. There is minimal potential for additional snow showers along and behind the front through the morning while MVFR ceiling persists although this will be monitored for any Lake Michigan contribution. NW wind becomes gusty toward noon reaching around 20 kts as colder air moves in and clouds linger near the MVFR/VFR borderline. A few flurries are possible during afternoon as is some breaks in cloud coverage toward evening.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* Low for ceilings aob 5000ft late tonight, high during the morning, and then moderate mid to late afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 351 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2019

DISCUSSION .

Clouds on the increase through the afternoon as mid level moisture advects in ahead of a clipper that will sweep across Mid/Northern MI tonight. A dry layer currently between 3-8kft will take a bit to overcome as evident in upstream obs failing to report any precip hitting the ground under the increasing coverage of radar returns. The clipper will strengthen while passing over lower MI with the leading arm of the warm front igniting some light snow showers around 03Z after saturation has occurred. This initial activity will fall over northern parts of the Saginaw Valley and Thumb with some expansion southward as the low draws nearer. Highest confidence is placed over the Thumb which has the highest amount of QPF, the coldest air and best mid level forcing. Lower confidence for both POPs and thus any accumulations (of rain or snow) farther south as soundings show the dry air holding firm south of about I69. Soundings have also been consistent in the picture they paint of the thermal profile adding some question to ptype. A deep moist layer from the sfc to 12kft is advertised by the NAM, GFS, RAP with only the very top of this layer tapping into the air at or below -10C and weak lapse rates throughout the column. As the night goes on the depth of the moisture decreases while losing connection with this snow growth zone making a rain/snow mix more likely. Locations around I69 or south may get all rain but with surface temps very near 32, don't expect too much freezing to occur. Models have been trending a bit higher with moisture content and strength of the fgen band with the best forcing being located just to the north of SE MI. Have made minor adjustments to push back timing slightly and increase potential snow totals over Huron County to around an inch, possibly up to 2 inches if the best forcing and moisture (closer to 0.2 inches) can shift south slightly. Otherwise most locations north of I69 should see more like a half inch with some mix of rain and snow.

Northwest flow sets up for Friday as the clipper pulls off to the east and longwave ridging builds across the central conus. Area of surface high pressure will encompass the Great Lakes leading to a cold (highs in the mid 30s) but dry day. Subsidence and dry air could bring about a good deal of sun through the afternoon. Cold temperatures hold through Saturday but the surface ridge axis passes during the day which flips the flow to warmer southwest flow. It will take til Sunday for temps to respond as the thermal ridge folds into the region, but highs will then jump to the mid/upper 40s for both Sunday and Monday.

Next trough will start to push south into the northern Plains and Midwest Sunday night. The initial low over northern Ontario will lay out a front that will push south through the Great Lakes Sunday night. Meanwhile a strong southern stream jet working through the central Plains will result in the development of a low that will then strengthen while lifting northeast along the front through lower MI. Warmth of the resident airmass and track of the low through Mid MI will result in a rain event across SE MI Monday and Monday night, with a chance to switch to snow on the tail end behind the cold front overnight. An arctic front will quickly follow on Tuesday ushering in a cold airmass with 850mb temps around -20C. The tight westerly gradient on the backside of the exiting low and surge of cold air should be enough to excite lake effect snow off Lake MI in which would last through the day Tuesday.

The arctic air and surface high pressure drifting across the Ohio Valley mid week could lead to daytime highs Wednesday only in the low 20s, dipping into the low teens Wednesday night. The coldest air should then pull away by Thursday allowing temps to slowly moderate through the end of the week.

MARINE .

Period of light southerly wind as a weak low transits the waters tonight will be brief as it exits east to New England by Friday morning. In its wake, strong northwest wind will develop and gust to near-gales again on Friday afternoon. The prolonged northwest fetch will likely warrant small craft advisories for elevated waves along the exposed nearshore waters of the Thumb. Flow then veers to southwesterly as warm air floods into the Great Lakes region late Saturday into Monday, gust potential limited by the stable southerly fetch. Conditions become more unsettled for the remainder of next week as the pattern becomes more active and colder air filters into the region.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

MI . NONE.

Lake Huron . Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 11 PM EST this evening for LHZ421-441.

Lake St Clair . NONE.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.



AVIATION . BT DISCUSSION . DRK MARINE . JVC

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 55 mi39 min SE 9.9 G 11 34°F 1012.5 hPa (-2.1)
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 57 mi39 min S 1.9 G 6 38°F 1014.9 hPa (-2.4)

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Flint, Bishop International Airport, MI3 mi46 minSSW 410.00 miOvercast39°F28°F67%1014.3 hPa
Owosso, Owosso Community Airport, MI24 mi44 minSSW 410.00 miOvercast40°F32°F73%1012.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFNT

Wind History from FNT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW10W13W11W10W9W9W9W11NW9NW9W10NW7W7W7W3SW3S3SE4SE5S5S8S6S5S4
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2 days agoW6W5SW7W8SW5SW3S5S6SW6SW8SW9SW7S7SW13
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.