Sunday, September27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Flint, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:27AMSunset 7:23PM Sunday September 27, 2020 1:33 PM EDT (17:33 UTC) Moonrise 4:59PMMoonset 1:53AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 1100 Am Edt Sun Sep 27 2020
Rest of today..Southwest winds around 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Partly cloudy late in the morning becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 2 feet or less late in the afternoon.
Tonight..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. A chance of light showers in the evening, then light showers likely after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon. Light showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Light showers likely in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:202009272115;;446768 FZUS53 KDTX 271500 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-272115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Flint, MI
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location: 43.02, -83.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 271702 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 102 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2020

AVIATION.

High MVFR cigs currently over a good portion of southern Lower Michigan expected to lift into low VFR by late afternoon. Southwest winds of 10 to 20 knots ahead of a weak cold front tracking through this afternoon, with winds becoming light and variable as the front stalls out in between the Central/Eastern Great lakes this evening/tonight. Challenging forecast determining exactly where showers and subsequent lower cigs (MVFR) set up tonight, and there is a good chance bulk of activity remains west of the southern TAF sites (YIP/DTW/DET). However, a wave of low pressure ridging along the front tomorrow should assure widespread showers and lower cigs (Low MVFR/possible IFR) spread eastward during the day.

For DTW . MVFR clouds lurking just to the west of the terminal, should rise into low VFR this afternoon and likely stay there through his evening, barring any shower development. Chances of showers appear too low to include in TAF through tonight, with widespread rain showers and lower cigs eventually developing tomorrow.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES.

* Moderate for ceiling 5000 ft or less through tonight, high tomorrow.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 352 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2020

DISCUSSION .

Strong mid level warm air advection tied to deep layer southwest flow ongoing across southeast Michigan early this morning. Higher magnitude of southwest flow an immediate downstream response to a contracting upper height gradient and associated frontal zone as inbound height falls across the plains spell the beginning of what becomes a sizable pattern change by the latter half of next week. A gradual eastward expansion of these lower heights will effectively ease the surface front across lower Michigan through the daylight period today. This process will be accompanied by a narrow, elongated axis of higher mid level theta-e. Frontal passage largely met by a high degree of stability across a deep layer, despite the ensuing theta-e advection. A narrow window will exist this evening /21z-03z/ for a few showers to emerge along the weak convergence zone, recent model guidance highlighting an area along/south of a Howell to Port Huron line. Otherwise, conditions today defined by continued above average warmth, but with the possibility for a higher coverage of cloud to mute the response slightly relative to recent days.

Frontal boundary aligned parallel with the mean flow will leave the elevated frontal zone anchored across the region tonight and Monday. Frontal forcing will strengthen with time as favorable upper jet support intersects the thermal gradient. Rainfall will expand in coverage just upstream this afternoon/evening as this process unfolds, before gradually shifting eastward and over the local area overnight into Monday as the governing height falls and associated mid level dynamics migrate thru lower Michigan. Potential for a period of widespread moderate rainfall under increasing deformation Monday, particularly with eastward extent. Notably cooler Monday given extensive cloud cover and rain potential - highs in the 60s.

Mid-late week period defined by a steady decline in the upper height field, as a series of lower amplitude waves effectively deepen and reinforce higher amplitude troughing. The net result will be a stretch of below to well below normal temperatures, with an incremental day to day downward trend in readings expected. Highs in the 50s likely by late next week. Weak cyclonic flow supplemented by the advent of modest vorticity advection and perhaps some weak lake moisture flux off lake Michigan may offer limited potential for shower production both Tuesday and Wednesday, particularly across central lower MI. Greater potential appears to exist Thursday, as deeper layer/moist cyclonic flow emerges in conjunction with a period of stronger cold air advection. Potentially unsettled conditions will then exist Friday, as magnitude of the resident thermal profile affords greater downstream lake moisture flux into a steep low level lapse rate environment.

MARINE .

Low pressure tracks northeast along a stalled frontal boundary across eastern Lake Superior this morning. As it deepens and departs into eastern Ontario, southwest winds gusting around 20 to 25 kt continue through the mid-morning. A Small Craft Advisory in effect for Saginaw Bay and the nearshore Lake Huron water. Winds should relax by the afternoon. Dry conditions prevail today, though chances increase slightly this afternoon for a few showers to develop over Lake Huron. The main round of showers looks to hold off until tonight into Monday as a slow-moving cold front moves in from the west, bringing a good chance for precip across the whole region. A secondary cold front then moves through Monday night and brings a wind shift to the west to northwest with speeds remaining below 15 kt. Much cooler weather follows for the midweek period with periodic chances for light showers.

HYDROLOGY .

A cold frontal boundary will slowly advance across southeast Michigan tonight and Monday. The environment will become favorable for a widespread area of rainfall develop along this boundary during this time. Potential exists for a period of moderate rainfall to develop, leading to rainfall amounts in excess of one half inch in some locations. This rainfall is not expected to result in flooding concerns.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . SF DISCUSSION . MR MARINE . TF HYDROLOGY . MR

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 55 mi33 min WSW 17 G 18 69°F 1005.1 hPa
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 57 mi33 min SSW 8.9 G 15 73°F 1007.8 hPa (-1.0)

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Flint, Bishop International Airport, MI3 mi40 minWSW 1110.00 miOvercast72°F61°F68%1006.4 hPa
Owosso, Owosso Community Airport, MI24 mi38 minSW 610.00 miOvercast73°F62°F72%1006.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFNT

Wind History from FNT (wind in knots)
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1 day agoS5S9S9S6S10SE7S5S6S7S5S6S10S7S4S3S5S5S7S7S6S8S8
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2 days agoSW10SW8SW7W6SW6W4SW4S4CalmCalmCalmS3CalmS3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmS4S3SW3SW5S7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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