Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Flint, MI

AVIATION

A stationary front remains draped from northern Lake Huron southwestward through Chicago this afternoon. This front has been responsible for some isolated light showers with the only lightning flashes back west over Lake MI. The next wave rippling along the front will come thought mbS and FNT this afternoon which will bring a better chance of showers. Took lightning out of the taf for now due to current lack of instability and likely lack of coverage later. A larger wave will pass through lower MI tonight bringing chances of showers and storms for all taf sites. Will need to watch for possible fog late tonight especially on the north/west side of the precip shield where that sets up with the second wave. Dense clouds exist northwest of PTK with only few cu around the Detroit area this afternoon. Clouds will expand and lower tonight with the next wave.

D21/DTW Convection... No thunderstorms forecast at DTW today through tonight. There is still a chance a few storms graze the northern reaches of D-21 tonight.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* Low for ceilings below 5kft today, moderate tonight into Thursday.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 340 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026

DISCUSSION...

A cold front is draped from the Straits down to the Milwaukee vicinity this morning, orphaned off by parent low pressure quickly racing across northern Quebec. Forward momentum carries the front slowly eastward today, with a few nudges from several weak shortwaves in the mid-level flow. One of these is passing across Lake Michigan this morning, tied to jet entrance region ascent aloft. Shower production has increased along this segment of the front - this activity mainly targets northern Lower MI this morning but also offers a 20-40% chance for some showers in the Saginaw Valley before noon.

Thickness advection via southwest flow and lots of insolation bring an uptick in warmth for most of SE MI compared to the past few days.
Mid to upper 80s will be common for a high temp. Meanwhile, higher coverage of cloud closer the front should limit temps to the lower 80s in the Saginaw Valley. There will be a lull in upper forcing during the day and low-level moisture looks to hold close to the surface front just upstream, so confidence is relatively low on development of additional showers in the CWA Afternoon convection that develops in some CAM solutions appear to be tied to a differential heating boundary in the Saginaw Valley/I-69 corridor - this may provide enough of a trigger absent of larger scale forcing aloft. HRRR and REFS ensemble mean SBCAPE and bulk wind shear on the order of 500 J/kg and 25 kt respectively would support disorganized clusters of thunderstorms with little potential for severe weather.
Otherwise, lack of low-level moisture and forcing should help keep much of the area dry and warm today.

Better signal for ascent works in late this evening and overnight as a jet streak rounds the base of the longwave trough upstream, with its entrance region passing overhead coincident with PVA and height falls between 00z and 09z. The highest PoPs (50-60%) set up generally north and west of Metro Detroit overnight. Some showers/storms may produce localized heavy rainfall. The front advances farther into SE MI daytime Thursday, with more favorable diurnal timing and another mid-level disturbance supporting a 50-60% PoP mainly south and east of a line from Owosso to Sandusky. Similar instability and wind shear progs will bring potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorms but limit chances for severe weather. The front progresses south of the area Thursday night with weak high pressure offering a window for drier conditions. The front is then shown to drift back northward on Friday with another window for scattered showers and storms.

Unsettled conditions look likely to continue into the weekend and possibly beyond as high pressure settles over the Four Corners and low pressure over Hudson Bay maintains an active northwest flow pattern into the Great Lakes. Still time to gather details on more specific windows of higher probability for precip, but this upper pattern generally holds in place into early and possibly mid next week.

MARINE...

A low pressure system slows over Hudson Bay today, with its extended attendant cold front approaching the central Great Lakes from the west. This provides the first opportunity for showers and a few thunderstorms this week, as the boundary likely stalls over Lake Huron tonight. Several disturbances are then expected to ripple over the boundary, preserving rain/storm chances through Thursday. The front should resume forward progress on Friday with additional chances for convection for the southern waterways. Winds are expected to remain below headline criteria through the rest of the week. Drier weather may briefly return for parts of Friday and/or Saturday, but the front will stall out again in the vicinity, keeping low chances for thunder through the weekend.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.