Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Shorewood, WI

UPDATE
Issued 1213 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

There are no notable changes to the thoughts regarding the forecast for the remainder of the day today. Some erosion of the stratocumulus field over southern Wisconsin has been noted over the past half hour on GOES visible satellite imagery, and the expectation is for this cloud deck to continue to disperse through this afternoon as drier air continues to move into the area. Winds remain gusty and out of the west to northwest at this hour, but should gradually continue to subside this afternoon in response to the low pressure system over southeast Ontario peeling away and surface high pressure building into the region from the west.

Ogorek

SHORT TERM
Issued 400 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Today and Tonight:

One cluster of storms will exit east central WI by 5 AM. This is associated with the cold front. There is no sign of additional convection as the front continues to sweep through southeast WI early this morning. Expect a brief lull in the gusty winds and also some breaks in the clouds. Then the surface cold front will arrive from west to east this morning from 5 to 9 AM. An area of low stratiform clouds will spread into southern WI behind the front, but they should break apart fairly quickly by early afternoon due to dry air moving in on gusty northwest winds.
Wind gusts up to 35 mph are expected through early afternoon.
Clouds and wind will gradually diminish late this afternoon into the evening.

Clear skies and calm winds overnight will allow for efficient radiational cooling. Lows will be in the 33 to 37 degree range, coldest in east central and portions of south central WI. Areas of frost are likely, so protect any sensitive vegetation.

Cronce

LONG TERM
Issued 400 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Wednesday through Monday:

A trough approaches the Great Lakes Region from the desert southwest Wednesday bringing additional chances for rain and storms. As this trough pulls northeast it is expected to interact with a shortwave moving in from the central plain. As these two features interact the large scale lift generated will overrun a baroclinic zone to our south bringing multiple rounds/waves for rain and storms. With the best of the baroclinic zone to our south many areas may not see every wave and rain would likely be light to moderate Wednesday afternoon until Wednesday night. For any thunderstorms that develop will be tapping into the elevated instability. Not anticipating enough instability to get any stronger storms at this time, but can't rule out some small hail. Rain and storm chances will continue into Thursday as the associated low pressure system advects into northern Illinois from the Central Plains. The environment set up for thunderstorms will be weaker heading into Thursday as southern Wisconsin will be on the northern side of the low and can expect more widespread stratiform rainfall.
Again can't rule out some thunder Thursday but the potential for that will be much lower around 10 to 15%.

Heading into Friday a few models do try to keep rain going, but there is less confidence here. POPs top out around 35 to 40% during the day Friday. Some guidance has area of low pressure system or frontal boundary moving through the greater Midwest region. There is so much variation here and thus confidence is lower. The upper level trough should be overhead/exiting which will lead to less lift and pressure rises aloft. So overall not a great set up, but the chances still remain given these few members of guidance.

For the weekend, dry weather and high pressure look to prevail.
This will favor a warming trend heading into the weekend leading to some pleasant weather for the first weekend of May.

Patterson

AVIATION
Issued 1213 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

SCT v BKN MVFR deck will gradually lift to VFR this afternoon while decreasing in coverage. Conditions should become VFR for all TAF sites tonight into Wednesday morning.

Gusty northwest winds this afternoon should very slowly ease later this afternoon. Lake breeze will cause winds shift to shift to the east at the terminals closers to Lake Michigan early this evening. For JVL and MSN, winds will become light easterly or light/variable tonight. Easterly winds will freshen up at all sites Wednesday morning.

- Izzi

MARINE
Issued 400 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

A low pressure system over Ontario will track into Quebec today. Gusty southerly winds with a few gale force gusts will persist until a cold front crosses Lake Michigan this morning.
The front will arrive in the northern third around 10 AM CDT, bringing an abrupt wind shift to the northwest. Gusts are expected to be just below gale force. Winds will have a more subtle shift to the west for the southern two thirds during the late morning hours and gusts should remain below gale force.
Winds will veer to the north this afternoon as high pressure of 30.1 inches moves into the Upper Great Lakes.

Easterly winds will develop Wednesday night as low pressure around 29.7 inches approaches from the Plains. That low will cross the southern tip of Lake Michigan Thursday morning, and winds will become northerly but remain light behind the associated cold front Thursday afternoon. High pressure of 30.1 inches will spread back into the region on Saturday.

Nearshore: Gusty southwest winds will become westerly by mid morning. Gusts up to 30 kt are expected right along the shoreline, with lower gusts toward the open waters. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through late afternoon.

Cronce

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM
Small Craft Advisory
LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 4 PM Tuesday.