Sunday, September15, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shorewood, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:29AMSunset 7:03PM Sunday September 15, 2019 6:59 PM CDT (23:59 UTC) Moonrise 8:08PMMoonset 7:41AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ645 North Point Light To Wind Point Wi- 506 Pm Cdt Sun Sep 15 2019
Tonight..South wind 5 to 10 knots veering northwest after midnight, then veering north early in the morning. Slight chance of showers in the evening. Patchy fog in the late evening and early morning. Areas of fog early in the morning. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday..North wind 5 to 10 knots. Patchy fog in the morning. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday night..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots veering east early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot.
Tuesday..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots rising to 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and early afternoon, then becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ645 Expires:201909160400;;846632 FZUS53 KMKX 152206 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 506 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ645-160400-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shorewood, WI
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location: 43.04, -87.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 152357
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
657 pm cdt Sun sep 15 2019

Update Areas of light drizzle over far ERN wi will move over
lake mi by 01z. The stratus field is currently decreasing from
west to east across south central wi but there is uncertainty
whether this will continue into the evening. Where clear areas do
exist, expect areas of dense fog to form late this evening into
the overnight. Dense fog advisories may eventually be needed later
tnt especially over south central wi.

Aviation(00z tafs) Areas of light drizzle with MVFR vsbys over
far ERN wi will move over lake mi by 01z. The stratus field with
cigs of 1000-1900 feet is decreasing from west to east over SW and
south central wi. There is uncertainty whether the clearing trend
will continue ewd across all of SRN wi this evening. Will maintain
broken stratus over ERN wi for now. For the overnight hours, areas
of 1 2-1 4sm fg will form in the clear sky areas with lighter fog
where the stratus holds. The fog and stratus will burn off by late
morning on Monday with mostly sunny conditions for the afternoon.

Prev discussion (issued 242 pm cdt Sun sep 15 2019)
short term...

rest of this afternoon through Monday afternoon... Forecast
confidence is moderate.

Stratus is holding strong across the area this afternoon, though
despite the cloud cover, temperatures have managed to warm into
the low to mid 70s. A weak surface front is advancing toward the
region from the northwest, and will move into southeastern
wisconsin through this evening before essentially washing out over
the area. Some clearing has been taking place behind the front,
though it's not entirely clear just how far that clearing line
will make this evening.

With high pressure building in and large scale subsidence aloft,
moisture should get trapped below the inversion layer as we head
into tonight. Suspect that this will initially manifest itself as
a regeneration of stratus this evening, but with calm winds and
very moist ground over much of the area, we should see stratus
build down overnight, setting the stage for fairly widespread fog
by morning. Given uncertainties with stratus vs. Fog and just how
dense any fog will be, will hold off on a dense fog advisory for
now. Wouldn't at all be surprised to see one be needed by late
tonight early Monday, however.

Clouds and fog will likely be slow to clear Monday morning.

Looking at upstream obs from minnesota today, it was 10-11 am
before fog and low clouds started to clear in earnest, and would
expect similar timing across the area tomorrow morning. This will
likely keep temperatures a few degrees lower than they otherwise
would be. Highs should top out in the low to mid 70s to upper 70s
west, where clearing may take place a bit earlier.

Monday night through Tuesday night... Forecast confidence is
moderate.

Models continue to show high pressure lingering to the east of the
region Monday night into early Tuesday. Light winds are expected,
with low level moisture lingering. Thus, more fog may occur during
this time, with dense fog not out of the questions. Some low
stratus clouds may also develop with the fog. It may linger into
Tuesday, before gradually mixing out.

The 500 mb ridge axis is expected to remain just to the east of
the area Monday night into Tuesday night. The influence of high
pressure to the east of the region should continue to bring quiet
weather. Temperatures are expected to remain warm for middle
september.

Long term...

Wednesday through Friday... Forecast confidence is moderate.

Models are in general agreement with the 500 mb ridge axis
remaining east of the region during this time, with a trough
moving from the northwestern CONUS across the great basin and
into the central rockies. South winds during this period should
maintain the warm and humid conditions across the area. A weak
cold front may push east into the area by 12z Thursday and
stalling out into Friday. There is enough moisture and instability
for keeping the decent chances for showers and storms Wednesday
night, with low pops lingering into Friday.

Friday night through Sunday... Forecast confidence is moderate.

Some disagreement with timing and placement of features in this
period. However, southwest flow at 500 mb should continue. The
cold frontal passage may occur as early as Saturday or as late as
Sunday. Will maintain pops through this period for now. Mild
temperatures should continue during this time.

Aviation(21z TAF updates)...

MVFR stratus will continue through at least late afternoon. A few
scattered showers will be possible late this afternoon and early
this evening as a weak cold front moves in, but coverage intensity
appears to be too low to include in the tafs at this time.

Some partial clearing is possible this evening, especially at
madison, before stratus builds back in overnight. This will build
down to the surface with time, with ifr to lifr conditions
expected by Monday morning due to low stratus and fog.

Marine...

a weak trough of low pressure will push through the lake through
this afternoon. Winds across the southern half of the lake will
remain from the south and southwest, with easterly flow over the
northern reaches of the lake.

High pressure builds into the area tonight, which will bring
lighter winds to the region. Some patchy fog isn't out of the
question, especially across the nearshore waters.

High pressure will slowly push east into the eastern great lakes
and new england over the next few days. Winds will remain fairly
light, and eventually become more southerly by Tuesday and
Wednesday.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... None.

Update... Gehring
tonight Monday and aviation marine... Boxell
Monday night through Sunday... Wood


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 3 mi69 min S 6 G 7 68°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 24 mi79 min Calm G 1.9 62°F 1016.9 hPa
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 32 mi59 min Calm G 2.9 65°F 1015.9 hPa (+0.7)
45186 47 mi39 min NW 1.9 G 5.8 63°F 61°F1 ft

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI6 mi2.1 hrsSE 610.00 miOvercast71°F64°F79%1015.2 hPa
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI10 mi2.2 hrsW 410.00 miOvercast73°F64°F74%1015.9 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI16 mi2.2 hrsN 010.00 miOvercast72°F66°F83%1015.9 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI20 mi2.1 hrsS 510.00 miOvercast70°F64°F82%1015.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMKE

Wind History from MKE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5S5S6S4S5SW7SW10SW11SW10SW9
G17
SW8S7S4S6SW8SW7SW8SW5SW4SE9SE8SE6S5S5
1 day agoW11
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W9SW7SW7W9W7W6W6W6SW4SW4SW4SW6SW6W5SW10SW9W8SW13
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SW5SE6SE5
2 days agoE8SE11SE15
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G25

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.