Tuesday, July27, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Days Creek, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:56AMSunset 8:43PM Monday July 26, 2021 11:01 PM PDT (06:01 UTC) Moonrise 9:44PMMoonset 7:42AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- 810 Pm Pdt Mon Jul 26 2021
.small craft advisory in effect until 11 pm pdt this evening...
Tonight..N wind 15 to 20 kt except N 10 to 20 kt cape arago southward. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. Mixed swell sw 1 ft at 15 seconds and nw 2 ft at 8 seconds.
Tue..N wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. Mixed swell sw 1 ft at 15 seconds and nw 2 ft at 8 seconds.
Tue night..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. Mixed swell sw 1 ft at 14 seconds and nw 2 ft at 8 seconds.
Wed..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. Mixed swell sw 1 ft and nw 2 ft.
Wed night..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. SW swell 1 ft.
Thu..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. SWell sw 1 ft.
Thu night..N wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 4 ft. SWell sw 1 ft.
Fri..N wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 4 to 5 ft. SWell sw 1 ft.
Sat..N wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 4 to 5 ft. SW swell 1 ft... Shifting to the w.
PZZ300 810 Pm Pdt Mon Jul 26 2021
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas will persist through this evening, with the most hazardous conditions expected from gold beach southward and beyond 8 to 10 nm from shore. Winds will gradually ease tonight through Tuesday night and overall sea conditions will improve tonight into Tuesday, though seas will remain steep south of cape blanco through Tuesday afternoon. Expect improved conditions for all areas Tuesday night through Wednesday. Advisory level conditions are expected to return by Thursday and persist into next weekend, especially south of cape blanco.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Days Creek, OR
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location: 43.05, -122.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 270408 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 908 PM PDT Mon Jul 26 2021

DISCUSSION. The Medford afternoon sounding showed precipitable water of 1.31 inches which is close to the maximum moving average for the date. Much of the high relative humidities are between 700 mb and 500 mb with a drier layer below to the ground.

There is not much confidence with how/if showers or isolated thunderstorms will evolve tonight. The current radar returns are likely mid-level clouds with virga (rain not reaching the ground) based on our sounding profile. The NAM model suggests very light precipitation developing mainly after midnight mostly near and west of the Cascades. This could turn out to be altocumulus towers with virga but can't rule out light showers reaching the ground in places. The current forecast has a very broad-brush of isolated thunderstorms tonight and this looks fine. Sandler

AVIATION. For the 27/00Z TAF Cycle . LIFR/IFR conditions are expected along the immediate coast and into coastal valleys tonight through Tuesday morning, with clearing in the late morning and early afternoon. Inland, isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight and Tuesday morning. Rain will be rather limited with storms, but gusty, erratic outflow winds are possible in the vicinity of showers/thunderstorms. Expect a continued chance for isolated thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon as well as scattered to numerous showers. -CC

MARINE. Updated 800 PM PDT Monday, 26 July 2021 . Gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas continue this evening, with the most hazardous conditions expected from Gold Beach southward and beyond 8 to 10 nm from shore. Winds will gradually ease tonight through Tuesday night. Sea conditions in most locations will ease in response to the decreasing winds, though seas will remain steep south of Cape Blanco through Tuesday afternoon.

The thermal trough will weaken enough Tuesday night into Wednesday to bring sub-advisory conditions from the shore out to 10 nm offshore. However strong enough north winds are expected to continue in the outer waters through Wednesday afternoon to keep advisory conditions there. The thermal trough will return late Wednesday into Thursday. Although not a strong one, it will bring gusty north winds by Thursday and persist into next weekend. Conditions will likely become hazardous to small craft then, especially south of Cape Blanco. -Sargeant/CC

PREV DISCUSSION. /Issued 259 PM PDT Mon Jul 26 2021/

DISCUSSION . Another day, another hard look at thunderstorm potential. Temperatures this afternoon are just above normal for this time of year. Thunderstorms have not been observed yet this afternoon, but we expect isolated storms to affect the forecast area later this afternoon. Instability and trigger are marginal, so we're not expecting abundant lightning.

We've looked a lot of data regarding potential for thunderstorms tonight into tomorrow morning, and we expanded the area of storm potential to most of the forecast area. Models show shortwave activity moving northward through the area, upper level lapse rates support thunderstorms, and there's increased moisture compared to last night. Due to increased confidence for some lightning tonight, we've changed wording from slight chance to isolated, and we've added "dry thunderstorm" wording for areas just inland from the coast eastward to Eastern Douglas and Jackson County. Deeper moisture will take longer to reach these areas. After any nighttime/morning storms, significant energy and moisture arrives from the south (now showing up as thunderstorm activity in Southern CA/NV) and will bring showers and embedded thunderstorms to the forecast area. Heavy rain is possible primarily east of the Cascades, but some high resolution models show significant rainfall west of the Cascades (generally from Interstate 5 eastward). Quarter inch rainfall totals aren't out of the question, and much of the data places the heaviest rainfall right over the Bootleg Fire. We don't expect rainfall rates to result in flooding over the burnscars, so we haven't issued any Flood Hazards.

Warming and generally drying conditions ensue on Wednesday and continue into Saturday. Temperature will bump up to 5 to 10 degrees above normal Thursday into Saturday under continued deep southerly flow around the western periphery of the Central US ridge. Thunderstorm chances look to ramp up again on Thursday in a more climatological pattern across the forecast area, favoring portions of Western Siskiyou County, north and east into the Cascades and higher terrain east of the Cascades. There are some indications of a pattern change late Sunday or early next week to cooler and more stable conditions, but confidence is low on this. Keene

AVIATION . For the 26/18Z TAF Cycle . Low clouds have already pulled back to the coast except for the Brookings area. Localized IFR due ceilings in the KBOK vicinity for the rest of the afternoon. Otherwise VFR will prevail everywhere else. Some reduced visibility due to wildfire smoke mainly east of the Cascades. Expect LIFR/IFR conditions to return again early this evening along the immediate coast.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening, focused along and east of the Cascades. Rain will be rather limited with storms today, but gusty, erratic outflow winds are expected in the vicinity of showers/thunderstorms. -Sargeant

MARINE . Updated 230 PM PDT Monday, 26 July 2021 . Gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas will persist through this evening, with the most hazardous conditions expected from Gold Beach southward and beyond 8 to 10 nm from shore. Winds will gradually ease tonight through Tuesday night. Sea conditions in most locations will ease in response to the decreasing winds, though seas will remain steep south of Cape Blanco through Tuesday afternoon.

The thermal trough will weaken enough Tuesday night into Wednesday to bring sub-advisory conditions from the shore out to 10 nm offshore. However strong enough north winds are expected to continue in the outer waters through Wednesday afternoon to keep advisory conditions there. The thermal trough will return return late Wednesday into Thursday. Although not a strong one, it will have enough oomph to bring gusty north winds by Thursday and persist into next weekend. Conditions will likely become hazardous to small craft then, especially south of Cape Blanco. -Sargeant

FIRE WEATHER . Updated 200 PM Monday 26 July 2021 . There is an isolated thunderstorm threat over a fairly large portion of the forecast area late this afternoon/tonight through Tuesday.

About 50-60 cloud-to-ground flashes occurred last night and were spread across FWZs 623 (north), 624 (north/east), 625 (northwest) and 285 (Modoc Plateau). This convection was mainly due to elevated instability/moisture that was triggered by a weak disturbance along a deformation axis extending from SW to NE across the area.

This afternoon, clouds from the nighttime storms are exiting to the north and east and there should be some isolated cells that get going again with surface heating late this afternoon/evening, mainly east of a line from the Illinois Valley to the Jack Fire. Best instability is still being depicted from around Chemult/Crescent to the Bootleg Fire down to around the Warner Mountains.

Once again, tonight, model guidance is showing some elevated instability especially from the Curry Coast range eastward across Rogue/Siskiyou NF and then north to the Umpqua Valley and the Umpqua, including the Jack Fire. Much like last night, forcing (trigger) is weak, but some models do show a short wave tracking through during the wee hours of Tuesday morning (2am until around 9 or 10am), which could support isolated thunderstorms. There is enough of a dry layer below the cloud bases that any cells that do manage to get going probably won't contain rainfall, but could produce some isolated dry lightning strikes. We do not think, however, there will be enough lightning coverage for a Red Flag Warning.

By Tuesday, a stronger short wave disturbance will arrive from the south. Moisture levels continue to increase with PW values of 1.00- 1.50 inches. With more cloud cover expected, instability will be more modest/limited. So, expect this to be more widespread showers with embedded and isolated thunderstorms, though any thunderstorms will be effective rain-producers. Given the high PWs, and latest hi- res guidance showing some precip reaching a bit farther to the west, we've expanded our coverage of showers/isolated thunder to the west. Chances of wetting rain (>0.10") are highest from about eastern Siskiyou County north-northeastward into Klamath County and western Lake County, up to and including right near the Bootleg fire.

Wednesday through Saturday, it will heat up again. Since we'll mostly remain on the western periphery of the upper ridge axis to the east, we'll be under southerly flow aloft. Instability should be present each afternoon/evening during this time period, and convective activity will be dictated by short waves coming northward in the flow. We've continued with a slight chance of pm/eve thunderstorms, mainly from the Cascades eastward. We've increased chances of thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon/evening, since guidance seems to agree on shortwave activity increasing then. But we'll continue to monitor and update as new data arrives.

The second half of next weekend into early next week, models are hinting at the trough offshore shifting eastward that might shift the monsoon moisture feed eastward, but that's a long ways out. -Spilde

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . CA . None.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ350-356-370. Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ356-376. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ376.

RES/RES/RES


Weather Reporting Stations
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Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Roseburg Regional Airport, OR31 mi68 minVar 510.00 miFair78°F45°F31%1013.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRBG

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Tide / Current Tables for Reedsport, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Reedsport
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Tue -- 03:50 AM PDT     6.84 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:00 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:55 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 10:46 AM PDT     -0.50 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:15 PM PDT     6.15 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:44 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:02 PM PDT     1.88 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:12 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.14.35.66.66.86.45.33.72.10.6-0.3-0.50.11.32.94.45.66.165.24.132.21.9

Tide / Current Tables for Charleston, Oregon
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Charleston
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Tue -- 02:43 AM PDT     7.66 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:02 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:26 AM PDT     -0.76 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:57 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:02 PM PDT     7.05 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:44 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:45 PM PDT     2.20 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:13 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.26.57.47.675.53.71.70.2-0.7-0.60.31.93.75.46.676.75.74.43.22.42.22.7

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