Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Days Creek, OR
November 29, 2023 7:42 AM PST (15:42 UTC)
Sunrise 7:21AM Sunset 4:41PM Moonrise 6:25PM Moonset 10:04AM
PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- 222 Am Pst Wed Nov 29 2023
Today..NE wind 5 kt...backing to N in the afternoon. Wind waves less than 2 ft. SWell W 4 to 5 ft at 11 seconds.
Tonight..N wind 5 kt early in the evening...becoming variable less than 5 kt, then...becoming S 5 kt after midnight. Wind waves less than 2 ft. SWell nw 4 ft at 14 seconds. Rain.
Thu..SW wind 5 to 10 kt...veering to W in the afternoon. Wind waves less than 2 ft...becoming W 3 ft at 5 seconds in the afternoon. SWell nw 4 to 5 ft at 13 seconds. Showers and slight chance of tstms.
Thu night..W wind 5 kt...backing to sw after midnight. Wind waves W 4 ft at 7 seconds. W swell 7 to 8 ft at 12 seconds... Building to 10 ft at 12 seconds after midnight. Showers and slight chance of tstms in the evening, then rain after midnight.
Fri..SW wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves nw 4 ft at 6 seconds. SWell W 10 to 11 ft at 12 seconds. Rain.
Fri night..SW wind 15 to 25 kt...becoming 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves nw 5 ft at 7 seconds. W swell 9 to 10 ft at 12 seconds...building to 11 ft at 11 seconds after midnight. Rain.
Sat..SW wind 15 kt...rising to 20 kt. Wind waves W 5 ft at 6 seconds...shifting to the sw 4 ft at 6 seconds. SWell nw 13 ft at 14 seconds.
Sun..S wind 25 kt...easing to 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves S 4 ft at 6 seconds. SWell W 12 ft at 13 seconds...subsiding to W 9 ft at 13 seconds and W 6 ft at 18 seconds.
Today..NE wind 5 kt...backing to N in the afternoon. Wind waves less than 2 ft. SWell W 4 to 5 ft at 11 seconds.
Tonight..N wind 5 kt early in the evening...becoming variable less than 5 kt, then...becoming S 5 kt after midnight. Wind waves less than 2 ft. SWell nw 4 ft at 14 seconds. Rain.
Thu..SW wind 5 to 10 kt...veering to W in the afternoon. Wind waves less than 2 ft...becoming W 3 ft at 5 seconds in the afternoon. SWell nw 4 to 5 ft at 13 seconds. Showers and slight chance of tstms.
Thu night..W wind 5 kt...backing to sw after midnight. Wind waves W 4 ft at 7 seconds. W swell 7 to 8 ft at 12 seconds... Building to 10 ft at 12 seconds after midnight. Showers and slight chance of tstms in the evening, then rain after midnight.
Fri..SW wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves nw 4 ft at 6 seconds. SWell W 10 to 11 ft at 12 seconds. Rain.
Fri night..SW wind 15 to 25 kt...becoming 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves nw 5 ft at 7 seconds. W swell 9 to 10 ft at 12 seconds...building to 11 ft at 11 seconds after midnight. Rain.
Sat..SW wind 15 kt...rising to 20 kt. Wind waves W 5 ft at 6 seconds...shifting to the sw 4 ft at 6 seconds. SWell nw 13 ft at 14 seconds.
Sun..S wind 25 kt...easing to 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves S 4 ft at 6 seconds. SWell W 12 ft at 13 seconds...subsiding to W 9 ft at 13 seconds and W 6 ft at 18 seconds.
PZZ300 222 Am Pst Wed Nov 29 2023
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Lower seas will persist in the waters through tonight. Active weather returns early Thursday through the weekend into next week with periods of gusty southerly winds, high and steep or very steep northwest swell, and fresh wind waves.
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Lower seas will persist in the waters through tonight. Active weather returns early Thursday through the weekend into next week with periods of gusty southerly winds, high and steep or very steep northwest swell, and fresh wind waves.
Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
(on/off) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS66 KMFR 291208 AAA AFDMFR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 407 AM PST Wed Nov 29 2023
Updated discussion for Friday to Saturday period.
SHORT TERM
A high pressure ridge remains over the region with an upper low to the south along the northern California coast. The upper low will continue to move south along the California coast and weaken at the same time before pushing inland around the Bay area. Middle and high clouds have moved into the area overnight and radar imagery shows some scattered high based returns along the coast and over Siskiyou County. However, little if any precipitation is expected to reach the ground given the dry subcloud layer.
Valley fog has developed in the Umpqua Valley and near Grants Pass overnight and is expected to continue through this morning. Fog may be locally dense, particularly in the Umpqua Valley.
Otherwise, stable conditions under high pressure, strong inversions and light winds will result in continued low vertical mixing and air stagnation conditions. With limited vertical mixing and light winds, pollutants may be trapped in valleys resulting in a potential for continued health impacts. An air stagnation advisory remains in effect through Thursday morning for inland valleys. Additionally, an air quality advisory from the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality remains in effect for Jackson and Josephine Counties and Klamath Falls (Klamath County) . People are encouraged to take precautions including following local burn restrictions to prevent deteriorating air quality, avoiding strenuous activity during periods of poor air quality, using High Efficiency Particulate Air (HEPA) filters, and staying indoors during high smoke or particulate levels (especially for young children and those with health conditions who are vulnerable). For details, please see the AQAMFR and NPWMFR for details.
On Thursday, the first of several frontal systems will move into the area. Ahead of the front some light showers are possible tonight and early Thursday morning. Then, a frontal band of precipitation will spread into the coast around or just after daybreak Thursday morning and inland across the area Thursday afternoon and evening, followed by lighter showers Thursday night.
With the frontal band, moderate precipitation is expected for the coast, coastal mountains, Southern Oregon Cascades (including the western foothills in eastern Douglas County) and into far western Siskiyou County. Otherwise, light precipitation is expected. Snow levels are expected around 3500-4000 feet but will be locally lower in the morning. Moderate snowfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are forecast across the Southern Oregon Cascades and eastern Douglas County foothills. Additionally, the National Blend of Models indicates a 60-90% chance of 6 inches or more in 24 hours from Thursday morning through Thursday night over the Southern Oregon Cascades and eastern Douglas County foothills with a 10-20% chance (40% chance at Crater Lake) for up to 12 inches of snow. Given impacts due to moderate snowfall, a winter weather advisory (WSWMFR) is in effect for these areas.
A stronger and moister frontal system will move into the area on Friday. This will bring additional precipitation to the area with snow levels around 3000-4000 feet in the morning, rising to 4000-5000 feet as precipitation increases during the day Friday and Friday evening. Behind this front, a shortwave trough will move into the region and strong, moist westerly flow will result in increased precipitation rates on Saturday with snow levels around 4000 to 4500 feet (except 4500-5000 feet along the coastal mountains and into western Siskiyou County). Models continue to support a potential for heavy snow in the Southern Oregon Cascades and eastern Douglas foothills above 4000 feet with snow accumulations of around 8 to 20 inches Friday morning through Saturday afternoon (except higher amounts of 20 to 30 inches above 5000 feet). The National Blend of Models shows a 60-95% chance of 12 inches or more in the Southern Oregon Cascades from highway 140 north Friday morning through Saturday night with a 70-85% chance for higher snowfall amounts of 24 inches or more across the higher terrain (above 5000 feet) from Crater Lake north.
Additionally, the National Blend of Models and high resolution WRF model supports 1 (and up to 2) inch per hours snowfall rates in the Southern Oregon Cascades, especially Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon. Additionally, further east, moderate to heavy snow accumulations, around 6 to 12 inches, are also forecast across northern and northeastern Klamath County and into portions of far northwest Lake County with lighter snow across other areas east of the Cascades. A winter storm watch (WSWMFR) is in effect for these areas Friday morning through Saturday afternoon. Additionally, ahead of this front, gusty winds are also expected, especially across the mountains and east of the Cascades on Friday and into Saturday.
Then, Saturday evening through Sunday a strong, moist atmospheric river system arrives with higher snow levels and moderate to heavy precipitation. For additional details on this system, please see the previous long term discussion below.
AVIATION
29/12Z TAFs...VFR conditions, though with increasing mid and high level clouds (bases generally above 7000 ft agl), will persist over most of northern California and southern Oregon under stable atmospheric conditions through this afternoon.
The exception is LIFR fog and freezing fog in much of the Coquille and Umpqua valleys, including Roseburg, that will persist for much of this morning. Late this morning, the fog is expected to dissipate and give way to VFR ceilings. A front moving inland this evening into Thursday morning will bring precipitation and lowering, but still mainly VFR, ceilings with local mountain obscuration. -DW
MARINE
Updated 200 AM Wednesday November 29, 2023...Seas will remain low, near the current readings of 4-5 feet at 11-13 seconds, through tonight.
Early Thursday morning, active weather returns with multiple fronts expected to pass through the waters through the weekend into next week. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the outer waters as winds and seas will increase beginning Thursday morning.
Seas are likely to then continue to build Thursday night into Saturday. We will wait for at least one more model run before deciding on whether an advisory will be sufficient late in the week, or if seas will become very steep at times. By Thursday evening, a steep northwest swell between 11 and 12 feet will build across the waters. When a strong front moves through on Friday, gusty south winds will combine with the existing swell to increase the steepness and chaoticness of the seas. The northwest swell will rebuild and grow throughout Saturday and Saturday night. Swell heights have been trending up in height, which would make bar crossings increasingly more hazardous. Sea conditions are likely to remain high and steep or very steep early next week. -DW
PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION
/Issued 244 PM PST Tue Nov 28 2023/
As we move into the forecast, a warm front and leading edge of the next atmospheric river appears to slam right into Oregon around Saturday night and Sunday. Temperatures will warm and snow levels will increase up to 8000 feet. This scenario has about an 80% chance of occuring. However, some models show a cold front approaching our region late Sunday night, which could increase precipitation and keep snow levels relatively lower. This solution has a 20% happening. Overall, impacts will likely decrease into Sunday as warmer air begins to move in.
Ensembles suggest integrated vapor transport(IVT) are fairly high and around 300 to 500 along the coast based on the latest GEFS data by Monday. However, the IVTs have a strong southerly to south westerly component. We've had an IVT event like this already this fall with minimal precipitation along the coast and farther inland.
In any case, the take home point here is warming temperatures should allow for decreasing snow impacts into next week.
-Smith
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Thursday for ORZ023>026- 028>031.
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 4 AM PST Friday above 3500 feet for ORZ025.
Winter Storm Watch from late Thursday night through Saturday afternoon above 4000 feet for ORZ025-027-028.
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 4 AM PST Friday above 4000 feet for ORZ027-028.
Winter Storm Watch from late Thursday night through Saturday afternoon for ORZ029-030.
CA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Thursday for CAZ080-081- 084-085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Thursday for PZZ356.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 4 PM PST Thursday for PZZ370- 376.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 407 AM PST Wed Nov 29 2023
Updated discussion for Friday to Saturday period.
SHORT TERM
A high pressure ridge remains over the region with an upper low to the south along the northern California coast. The upper low will continue to move south along the California coast and weaken at the same time before pushing inland around the Bay area. Middle and high clouds have moved into the area overnight and radar imagery shows some scattered high based returns along the coast and over Siskiyou County. However, little if any precipitation is expected to reach the ground given the dry subcloud layer.
Valley fog has developed in the Umpqua Valley and near Grants Pass overnight and is expected to continue through this morning. Fog may be locally dense, particularly in the Umpqua Valley.
Otherwise, stable conditions under high pressure, strong inversions and light winds will result in continued low vertical mixing and air stagnation conditions. With limited vertical mixing and light winds, pollutants may be trapped in valleys resulting in a potential for continued health impacts. An air stagnation advisory remains in effect through Thursday morning for inland valleys. Additionally, an air quality advisory from the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality remains in effect for Jackson and Josephine Counties and Klamath Falls (Klamath County) . People are encouraged to take precautions including following local burn restrictions to prevent deteriorating air quality, avoiding strenuous activity during periods of poor air quality, using High Efficiency Particulate Air (HEPA) filters, and staying indoors during high smoke or particulate levels (especially for young children and those with health conditions who are vulnerable). For details, please see the AQAMFR and NPWMFR for details.
On Thursday, the first of several frontal systems will move into the area. Ahead of the front some light showers are possible tonight and early Thursday morning. Then, a frontal band of precipitation will spread into the coast around or just after daybreak Thursday morning and inland across the area Thursday afternoon and evening, followed by lighter showers Thursday night.
With the frontal band, moderate precipitation is expected for the coast, coastal mountains, Southern Oregon Cascades (including the western foothills in eastern Douglas County) and into far western Siskiyou County. Otherwise, light precipitation is expected. Snow levels are expected around 3500-4000 feet but will be locally lower in the morning. Moderate snowfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are forecast across the Southern Oregon Cascades and eastern Douglas County foothills. Additionally, the National Blend of Models indicates a 60-90% chance of 6 inches or more in 24 hours from Thursday morning through Thursday night over the Southern Oregon Cascades and eastern Douglas County foothills with a 10-20% chance (40% chance at Crater Lake) for up to 12 inches of snow. Given impacts due to moderate snowfall, a winter weather advisory (WSWMFR) is in effect for these areas.
A stronger and moister frontal system will move into the area on Friday. This will bring additional precipitation to the area with snow levels around 3000-4000 feet in the morning, rising to 4000-5000 feet as precipitation increases during the day Friday and Friday evening. Behind this front, a shortwave trough will move into the region and strong, moist westerly flow will result in increased precipitation rates on Saturday with snow levels around 4000 to 4500 feet (except 4500-5000 feet along the coastal mountains and into western Siskiyou County). Models continue to support a potential for heavy snow in the Southern Oregon Cascades and eastern Douglas foothills above 4000 feet with snow accumulations of around 8 to 20 inches Friday morning through Saturday afternoon (except higher amounts of 20 to 30 inches above 5000 feet). The National Blend of Models shows a 60-95% chance of 12 inches or more in the Southern Oregon Cascades from highway 140 north Friday morning through Saturday night with a 70-85% chance for higher snowfall amounts of 24 inches or more across the higher terrain (above 5000 feet) from Crater Lake north.
Additionally, the National Blend of Models and high resolution WRF model supports 1 (and up to 2) inch per hours snowfall rates in the Southern Oregon Cascades, especially Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon. Additionally, further east, moderate to heavy snow accumulations, around 6 to 12 inches, are also forecast across northern and northeastern Klamath County and into portions of far northwest Lake County with lighter snow across other areas east of the Cascades. A winter storm watch (WSWMFR) is in effect for these areas Friday morning through Saturday afternoon. Additionally, ahead of this front, gusty winds are also expected, especially across the mountains and east of the Cascades on Friday and into Saturday.
Then, Saturday evening through Sunday a strong, moist atmospheric river system arrives with higher snow levels and moderate to heavy precipitation. For additional details on this system, please see the previous long term discussion below.
AVIATION
29/12Z TAFs...VFR conditions, though with increasing mid and high level clouds (bases generally above 7000 ft agl), will persist over most of northern California and southern Oregon under stable atmospheric conditions through this afternoon.
The exception is LIFR fog and freezing fog in much of the Coquille and Umpqua valleys, including Roseburg, that will persist for much of this morning. Late this morning, the fog is expected to dissipate and give way to VFR ceilings. A front moving inland this evening into Thursday morning will bring precipitation and lowering, but still mainly VFR, ceilings with local mountain obscuration. -DW
MARINE
Updated 200 AM Wednesday November 29, 2023...Seas will remain low, near the current readings of 4-5 feet at 11-13 seconds, through tonight.
Early Thursday morning, active weather returns with multiple fronts expected to pass through the waters through the weekend into next week. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the outer waters as winds and seas will increase beginning Thursday morning.
Seas are likely to then continue to build Thursday night into Saturday. We will wait for at least one more model run before deciding on whether an advisory will be sufficient late in the week, or if seas will become very steep at times. By Thursday evening, a steep northwest swell between 11 and 12 feet will build across the waters. When a strong front moves through on Friday, gusty south winds will combine with the existing swell to increase the steepness and chaoticness of the seas. The northwest swell will rebuild and grow throughout Saturday and Saturday night. Swell heights have been trending up in height, which would make bar crossings increasingly more hazardous. Sea conditions are likely to remain high and steep or very steep early next week. -DW
PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION
/Issued 244 PM PST Tue Nov 28 2023/
As we move into the forecast, a warm front and leading edge of the next atmospheric river appears to slam right into Oregon around Saturday night and Sunday. Temperatures will warm and snow levels will increase up to 8000 feet. This scenario has about an 80% chance of occuring. However, some models show a cold front approaching our region late Sunday night, which could increase precipitation and keep snow levels relatively lower. This solution has a 20% happening. Overall, impacts will likely decrease into Sunday as warmer air begins to move in.
Ensembles suggest integrated vapor transport(IVT) are fairly high and around 300 to 500 along the coast based on the latest GEFS data by Monday. However, the IVTs have a strong southerly to south westerly component. We've had an IVT event like this already this fall with minimal precipitation along the coast and farther inland.
In any case, the take home point here is warming temperatures should allow for decreasing snow impacts into next week.
-Smith
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Thursday for ORZ023>026- 028>031.
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 4 AM PST Friday above 3500 feet for ORZ025.
Winter Storm Watch from late Thursday night through Saturday afternoon above 4000 feet for ORZ025-027-028.
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 4 AM PST Friday above 4000 feet for ORZ027-028.
Winter Storm Watch from late Thursday night through Saturday afternoon for ORZ029-030.
CA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Thursday for CAZ080-081- 084-085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Thursday for PZZ356.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 4 PM PST Thursday for PZZ370- 376.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Wind History from RBG
(wind in knots)Reedsport
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:06 AM PST 5.86 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:27 AM PST Sunrise
Wed -- 08:01 AM PST 3.04 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:12 AM PST Moonset
Wed -- 01:39 PM PST 7.44 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:41 PM PST Sunset
Wed -- 06:27 PM PST Moonrise
Wed -- 09:04 PM PST -0.78 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:06 AM PST 5.86 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:27 AM PST Sunrise
Wed -- 08:01 AM PST 3.04 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:12 AM PST Moonset
Wed -- 01:39 PM PST 7.44 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:41 PM PST Sunset
Wed -- 06:27 PM PST Moonrise
Wed -- 09:04 PM PST -0.78 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Reedsport, Umpqua River, Oregon, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 3.1 |
| 1 am |
| 4.5 |
| 2 am |
| 5.5 |
| 3 am |
| 5.9 |
| 4 am |
| 5.6 |
| 5 am |
| 4.9 |
| 6 am |
| 4 |
| 7 am |
| 3.3 |
| 8 am |
| 3 |
| 9 am |
| 3.3 |
| 10 am |
| 4.2 |
| 11 am |
| 5.3 |
| 12 pm |
| 6.5 |
| 1 pm |
| 7.3 |
| 2 pm |
| 7.4 |
| 3 pm |
| 6.8 |
| 4 pm |
| 5.7 |
| 5 pm |
| 4.1 |
| 6 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 8 pm |
| -0.4 |
| 9 pm |
| -0.8 |
| 10 pm |
| -0.4 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.6 |
Charleston
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:47 AM PST 6.82 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:48 AM PST 3.60 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:27 AM PST Sunrise
Wed -- 10:11 AM PST Moonset
Wed -- 12:36 PM PST 8.45 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:43 PM PST Sunset
Wed -- 06:30 PM PST Moonrise
Wed -- 07:43 PM PST -0.99 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:47 AM PST 6.82 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:48 AM PST 3.60 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:27 AM PST Sunrise
Wed -- 10:11 AM PST Moonset
Wed -- 12:36 PM PST 8.45 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:43 PM PST Sunset
Wed -- 06:30 PM PST Moonrise
Wed -- 07:43 PM PST -0.99 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Charleston, Oregon, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 5.6 |
| 1 am |
| 6.6 |
| 2 am |
| 6.8 |
| 3 am |
| 6.4 |
| 4 am |
| 5.5 |
| 5 am |
| 4.5 |
| 6 am |
| 3.8 |
| 7 am |
| 3.6 |
| 8 am |
| 4.1 |
| 9 am |
| 5 |
| 10 am |
| 6.3 |
| 11 am |
| 7.5 |
| 12 pm |
| 8.3 |
| 1 pm |
| 8.4 |
| 2 pm |
| 7.6 |
| 3 pm |
| 6.1 |
| 4 pm |
| 4.2 |
| 5 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 7 pm |
| -0.7 |
| 8 pm |
| -1 |
| 9 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 11 pm |
| 2.8 |
Medford, OR,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE