Sunday, March7, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Palmyra, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:33AMSunset 6:08PM Sunday March 7, 2021 11:18 PM EST (04:18 UTC) Moonrise 3:06AMMoonset 11:58AM Illumination 29% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 /o.exp.kbuf.ma.w.0139.000000t0000z-201115t2200z/ 505 Pm Est Sun Nov 15 2020
.the special marine warning expired at 500 pm est... The affected areas were... Lake ontario from hamlin beach to sodus bay... The Thunderstorms have moved out of the area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters. Strong winds not related to Thunderstorms will continue tonight. Gale warnings are in effect for lake ontario. A severe Thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 600 pm est for western new york...and the adjacent waters of lake ontario. Lat...lon 4327 7772 4327 7779 4331 7781 4332 7791 4363 7790 4363 7697 4324 7697 4325 7711 4325 7729 4320 7756 time...mot...loc 2204z 237deg 59kt 4401 7690 4374 7689
LOZ043 Expires:202103081015;;636419 FZUS51 KBUF 080245 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 945 PM EST Sun Mar 7 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-081015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Palmyra, NY
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location: 43.06, -77.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 080351 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1051 PM EST Sun Mar 7 2021

SYNOPSIS. Dry but cold temperatures will continue through tonight, before day to day warming of our airmass leads to well above normal warmth by mid week. A slow moving boundary will allow for several opportunities for rain showers toward the second half of the week. Above average temperatures in combination with runoff from snowmelt, and eventually some rain later in the week will cause rivers and creeks to rise.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/. Aside from some stubborn localized lake clouds east of Lake Erie through the early overnight, mainly clear to partly cloudy skies (high thin cirrus WNY overnight) and light winds will provide good radiational cooling conditions. This will allow for one more cold night with below normal temps, although warmer air will be starting to move in aloft over western NY later tonight as a sign of what's to come. Before that though lows tonight will drop back into the teens across the lake plains, with single digits across the higher terrain. Even sub zero readings possible for the Tug Hill and western Dacks.

Surface high pressure will settle southward across the Southeast Monday. Meanwhile, warm advection mid and upper level clouds associated with a weak and mainly dry warm front will move into western and northcentral NY, with the best chance for a stray rain or snow shower east of Lake Ontario later in the day. Otherwise, the start of our day to day warmup begins as temperatures rise into the low to mid 30s east of Lake Ontario, with low to mid 40s across the remainder of the area.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. A weak warm front will be quickly followed by a weak cold front which will wash out as it moves into the area Monday night. This bring some light (mainly) snow showers to the North Country closest to its supporting shortwave. Otherwise, suspect mesoscale guidance is overdone with its upslope QPF but there will be some clouds with a widely scattered rain shower possible elsewhere. Lows Monday night will range from the lower to mid 30s south of Lake Ontario to the mid to upper 20s across the North Country.

High pressure will build back into the eastern Great Lakes on Tuesday, with dry weather and clearing skies. Highs Tuesday will reach the upper 40s to lower 50s in Western NY, and low to mid 40s for the North Country.

High pressure will remain centered off the southeast coast Wednesday. Dry weather will continue, with just a modest increase in mid/high clouds during the afternoon ahead of the next system. Southwest flow and warm advection will ramp up over the Ohio Valley and New England, allowing a much warmer airmass to move into our region. Highs will reach the upper 50s to lower 60s for much of the area, with mid 50s for the North Country. A SSW wind direction will keep most of the lake induced cooling on the Canadian side of the border.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. A mid level trough will advance from the Northern Plains Wednesday night to the Great Lakes by Thursday night. Deep moisture will gradually increase Wednesday night, with a pre-frontal trough possibly bringing a few rain showers overnight. A better chance of rain showers will arrive Thursday night as a cold front and possibly a wave of low pressure slowly approaches and then crosses the eastern Great Lakes. 12Z ECMWF/GFS/GGEM guidance has trended slower, suggesting much of Thursday may remain dry. If this happens, then Thursday will be as warm or warmer than Wednesday. However the wind direction will likely be more southwest than Wednesday, bringing more lake cooling to areas northeast of the lakes including Buffalo. Showers will likely move through Thursday night before tapering off Friday morning.

Colder air will filter back into the region Friday as cold advection increases behind the cold front and the mid level trough reaches the eastern Great Lakes. The airmass rapidly dries out Friday night and Saturday behind the cold front, so despite colder northwest flow expect mainly dry conditions. Highs by Saturday will be back in the upper 30s to mid 40s before another cold front is forecast to push southward across the area by Sunday.

AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. VFR flight conditions and mainly light winds will persist through the TAF period owed to high pressure crossing the region tonight, then settling south on Monday.

Aside from some stubborn lake clouds through the early overnight producing localized low VFR decks (~035-040) in and around areas from KBUF to KROC through the early overnight, expect mainly clear to partly cloudy skies (high thin cirrus WNY overnight).

Otherwise, thicker mid and upper clouds will move across the region Monday as warmer air starts to move in.

Outlook .

Monday Night through Wednesday . VFR. Wednesday night and Thursday . Mainly VFR. A chance of showers. Thursday night and Friday . VFR/MVFR. Showers likely.

MARINE. High pressure will build across the eastern Great Lakes tonight with light winds and negligible waves through Monday. A weak cold front will cross the Lakes Monday night with some elevated winds and waves briefly late Monday night and Tuesday morning, especially across southeastern Lake Ontario. High pressure will then build back in allowing winds and waves to lessen through Wednesday.

Pressure gradient will tighten Wednesday night in the wake of a warm frontal passage, with strengthening southerlies possibly increasing enough to bring the next round of low end Small Craft Advisory conditions.

HYDROLOGY. A significantly warmer pattern will start on Tuesday and this will result in increasing snow melt and associated run-off. There is still significant snow pack in place, especially across higher terrain and in the woods. The warmest temperatures will be on Wednesday and Thursday, with showers Thursday through Friday morning adding some additional run-off in addition to the snow melt.

The first concern is the risk for ice jam flooding since this could potentially occur much earlier than flooding due purely to high flows. The greatest risk for ice jams is mainly near where several Buffalo area creeks flow into the Buffalo River, which is a common location for ice jams. High flows from last week left ice jams in place, and cold weather since then has frozen these in place. Flows on the creeks will rise Tuesday evening in response to warmer temperatures, before leveling off Wednesday morning. More significant rises can be expected Wednesday evening through Thursday night when there will be a prolonged period of temperatures in the 50s and 60s. This will eventually flush out the ice jams and pretty much any ice in place, but the big question is how firm the ice jams are. Gradual melting from modest rises on Monday into Tuesday may help erode some of the ice before the highest flows start. However the longer existing ice jams hold, the greater the risk. Ice jam flooding concerns are greatest Tuesday night through Wednesday night - but before the highest flows are expected.

There is also a risk for flooding from high flows. The timing on this would be considerably later, with the highest flows on faster responding creeks likely to be on Thursday with slower responding river flooding possibly extending into Friday and Saturday. Latest model guidance shows a longer period of warm weather, and also some risk of more QPF (half inch or so) since the front will be slower to move through. This uncertainty is reflected in the MMEFS ensembles which show a risk for flooding in the Allegheny and Black River basins, in addition to the Buffalo creeks.

Probabilities for individual forecast points to reach flood stage are still low (generally 10-50 percent) but if these model trends continue a Flood Watch may be needed for this in addition to the ice jam risk. Timing is tricky because the risk starts with ice jams, and then varies by basin with much later start times in the Black River basin which has considerably more snow pack in place but is also slower to warm.

It does appear that the warm up this week will melt most of the snow and ice south of Lake Ontario.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . JM NEAR TERM . JM SHORT TERM . Apffel/Hitchcock LONG TERM . Apffel/Hitchcock AVIATION . JM MARINE . JM HYDROLOGY . Apffel


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 24 mi18 min WSW 5.1 G 6 24°F 1031.5 hPa (-0.7)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 26 mi48 min 23°F
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 47 mi48 min WNW 13 G 17 27°F 1030.4 hPa15°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY24 mi24 minWSW 310.00 miA Few Clouds18°F13°F81%1031.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KROC

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4W5W5W5N5NE7NE5N3N5N4W6N7464N6N9N8NW6N4CalmSW3CalmW3
1 day agoNW17N18N10N10NW11
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Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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