Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Palmyra, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) A brief period of dangerous heat today, with very warm, but less humid conditions Wednesday.

DISCUSSION
Key Message 1...A brief period of dangerous heat today, with very warm, but less humid conditions Wednesday.

Large dome of high pressure will continue to expand into the lower Great Lakes region today, with 850mb temps rising into the the 22C- 25C range (99th percentile for mid July). This will support highs reaching the mid to even upper 90s across the Lake Plains, Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes, with upper 80s to lower 90s elsewhere.
See Climate section below for today's record high temperatures at Buffalo, Rochester, and Watertown. Combining this very hot airmass with a plume of higher moisture advecting into the region with Tds reaching the low 70s across the lower elevations will result in heat indices climbing into the lower 100s across the lake plains, Genesee Valley, and Finger Lakes region, even as high as 105 degrees. Elsewhere, peak heat indices will reach the mid to upper 90s. A Heat Advisory remains in effect today for all of Western and North-Central NY from 11 AM to 8 PM.

A fairly stout 30-40 knot LLJ will be located just 1-2 kft off the deck this afternoon into this evening, allowing a good portion of those stronger winds aloft to mix to the surface. When combined with a tightening pressure gradient, expect to see frequent WSW to SW'erly gusts in the 25-35 mph range, with a few gusts to 40 mph not out of the question northeast of Lake Erie and east through northeast of Lake Ontario. This will at least provide some natural relief to the heat, especially across those areas downwind of the lakes. That said, with lake surface temperatures generally in the low to mid 70s, it's cooling effects will be much less pronounced than earlier in the season.

Very warm and humid conditions will remain into at least Wednesday morning, before an approaching mid level trough and surface cold front drop south out of eastern Canada ushering in cooler and drier air from north to south from late morning through the afternoon.
High temperatures will still range through the 80s by early Wednesday afternoon, but dropping humidity levels will keep heat indices about the same, or possibly even a bit lower than the actual air temperature.

AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Widespread VFR conditions are expected through the 06Z TAF period, with just passing upper level cirrus at times.

The main impact for this TAF cycle will be increasing winds. Expect W to SW winds to ramp up through this morning with frequent gusts into the 20-30 knot range later this morning into this evening, and up to 35 knots possible at KBUF/KART.

The tail end of the higher winds aloft will linger into this evening, so as surface winds start to come down, there may be a brief period of LLWS during this time before the LLJ exits.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers or a thunderstorm.

MARINE
SW to WSW'erly winds will freshen this morning, then continue to strengthen through the afternoon with strong breezes possible at times, leading to Small Craft Advisory conditions developing on both lakes. Waves will increase to 3-6 feet across Lakes Erie and Ontario, with the highest waves toward the eastern end of Lake Ontario. See headlines as outlined below.

SW to W'erly winds will decrease through tonight behind a cold front, becoming generally moderate breezes later tonight through Wednesday. Waves will be slower to subside, dropping to 2-4 feet across eastern Lake Ontario by Wednesday morning, and 1-2 feet elsewhere.

A period of freshening winds across eastern Lake Ontario Thursday afternoon and evening may cause another brief period of Small Craft Advisory conditions during this time.

CLIMATE
Here are the record high temperatures for today:

Buffalo, NY 92 (2005)

Rochester, NY 97 (1952)

Watertown, NY 91 (1952)

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through Wednesday morning for NYZ007.
Beach Hazards Statement from 10 AM EDT this morning through late tonight for NYZ010-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM EDT Wednesday for LEZ040-041.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for LOZ042.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for LOZ043.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT Wednesday for LOZ044.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 11 AM EDT Wednesday for LOZ045.