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LMZ644 Port Washington To North Point Light Wi- 705 Am Cst Sat Dec 9 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..Southwest wind 10 to 20 knots veering west 15 to 20 knots late in the morning, then backing southwest in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 knots. Patchy fog in the morning. Chance of rain in the morning. Slight chance of sprinkles late in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Tonight..Southwest wind 15 to 20 knots veering west late in the evening, then becoming west 15 to 20 knots after midnight veering northwest 10 to 20 knots early in the morning. Gusts up to 25 knots. Slight chance of sprinkles through around midnight. Slight chance of rain and snow after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet early in the morning.
Sunday..Northwest wind 10 to 20 knots becoming 15 to 20 knots late in the morning, then becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday night..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
wave heights are for ice free areas.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 091038 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 438 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

KEY MESSAGES

-Rain will continue with a lull expected late this morning into the early afternoon.
-Tonight, a dusting of snow may occur over central and east- central Wisconsin.


SHORT TERM
(Issued 413 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023)

Today through Sunday:

The main swath of rain is quickly moving north of the area this morning with more stratiform banding remaining over the western portions of our CWA and some lagging spotty shower activity over IL. All areas of rain should lift north through the morning hours as a weak shortwave aloft lifts north and sfc trough over southern Lake Michigan closes off and deepens into a sfc low and lifts north. We'll see a dry slot move in behind the rain during the late morning to early afternoon, but there may be some very low (around 15%) chances for some light flurries/sprinkles this afternoon as forecast soundings show some lingering low lvl moisture in the "dry" slot. Overnight, colder air and wrap around banding will lead to 30 to 40% chances for light snow over central and east central Wisconsin as the deformation zone moves east. Currently, any snow accumulations that occur will amount to a dusting on grassy surfaces.

An arctic cold front will move through on Sunday promoting CAA. We should gradually clear through the day, but temperatures will be much cooler with highs only reaching the freezing mark.

CMiller

LONG TERM
(Issued 413 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023)

Monday through Friday:

A quiet and dry week is expected across srn WI.

A sfc ridge will shift ewd across srn WI on Mon with swly winds and warm advection for the afternoon and evening. This is occurring ahead of a large polar trough that will move ewd across south central Canada to se Canada through Wed. It's dry cold front will then pass early Tue AM across srn WI.

High pressure will then track from the nrn Great Plains into the Ohio River Valley from Tue-Thu with weakening by Fri. This will bring a return swly winds and warm advection to the region for the second half of the week. Temps will be near or slightly above normal for Mon-Wed then well above normal for Thu-Fri.

Gehring

AVIATION
(Issued 402 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023)

A hodge-podge of sfc conditions are underway over southern Wisconsin as a sfc trough is bringing a swatch of sfc moisture to the region. Currently in areas of rain, LIFR to IFR conditions exist with cigs as low as 400ft and vis down to 1SM. Areas out of the rain are observing VFR with cigs from 4000 to 5000 ft with vis of P6SM. Expect this mixture of conditions to continue until rain lifts north of the area late this morning. There may be some scattering ing the clouds this afternoon before MVFR cigs return from the west this afternoon into the evening, with some slight chances for light rain/snow mix over central WI.

Light and variable winds will become southwesterly and gusty through the day, with gusts from 20 to 25 knots.

CMiller

MARINE
(Issued 402 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023)

Southeast winds will quickly come around to southwest through the rest of the morning hours and become gusty as a surface low rapidly deepens to 29.4 inches as it races from the southern end of Lake Michigan this morning, to just south of James Bay by this evening. The rapid strengthening of the low will drive gales from 35 to 40 knots, primarily over the eastern parts of Lake Michigan closer to the shoreline of the state of Michigan. These gales will race northward through the day from the southeastern to northeastern quadrants of Lake Michigan. Thus, a gale warning has been issued over the southern half and northern half of Lake Michigan in two separate time segments to capture this evolution.

Breezy southwest winds to 20 knots will then continue in the wake of the low, until a cold front passes Sunday morning and winds rise slightly and shift direction, with gusts between 20 to 25 knots out of the northwest expected.

CMiller

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM
Gale Warning
LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779- LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 until noon Saturday.

Gale Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567- LMZ868...10 AM Saturday to 5 PM Saturday.

Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646 until 6 AM Sunday.

Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644 until 6 AM Sunday.

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