Sunday, February23, 2020
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L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Milwaukee, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 5:34PM Sunday February 23, 2020 7:36 AM CST (13:36 UTC) Moonrise 8:03AMMoonset 6:37PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ644 Port Washington To North Point Light Wi- 706 Am Cst Sun Feb 23 2020
Today..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tonight..West wind 10 to 15 knots veering northwest early in the morning. Partly cloudy through around midnight then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday..North wind 5 to 10 knots veering northeast late in the morning, then rising to 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon rising to 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet late in the afternoon.
Monday night..Northeast wind 15 to 20 knots becoming 10 to 20 knots after midnight, then rising to 15 to 25 knots early in the morning. Chance of rain and snow through around midnight, then rain and snow likely after midnight. Waves 3 to 4 feet building to 5 to 7 feet. A small craft advisory may be needed. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ644 Expires:202002231700;;970539 FZUS53 KMKX 231306 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 706 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ644-231700-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Milwaukee, WI
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location: 43.06, -87.97     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 231120 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 520 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2020

UPDATE.

The forecast looks on track for today, so no changes are needed at this time.

AVIATION(12Z TAFS).

Not expecting fog to occur into this morning, except in localized low spots across the area. Southwest winds will linger today, with some gusts of 15 to 20 knots later this morning and afternoon, especially near Lake Michigan. Clear skies should linger for most of today.

Winds will become lighter tonight, as they veer west to northwest/north. Continued to mention some low clouds moving into the area this evening and overnight, though uncertain if this will occur. If they do not occur, some light fog may develop later tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION. (Issued 436 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2020)

SHORT TERM .

Today Through Monday . Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Not expecting fog to occur into this morning, except in localized low spots. Clear skies should linger for most of today. Southwest winds may become somewhat gusty this afternoon, especially near the lake.

Warm air advection and a warmer start than yesterday should bring highs into the middle 40s to lower 50s over most of the area, highest in the far southeast. These values are approaching the 90th percentile, but confident these values will be reached given warmer start than yesterday.

Surface trough will move through the area later this afternoon and early this evening, with winds weakening as they shift northwest to north later tonight. Models continue to advertise low clouds developing over the area tonight and lingering into Monday.

However, models are keeping the best low level moisture north of the area tonight into Monday. Forecast soundings have been overdone with these low clouds the past day or two. Thus, uncertain if these low clouds will occur. If they don't, some light fog may develop with light winds and dew point depressions getting small. Temperatures may get lower than forecast as well.

Middle to high clouds should increase Monday, ahead of next system to affect the region. Kept highs in the middle to upper 30s, as winds shift northeast and gradually increase.

Monday night through Wednesday night . Forecast confidence medium.

A Winter Storm Watch may be needed in later forecasts for this period. The upper low over the desert southwest will eject newd, tracking from KS/OK Mon AM into the lower Great Lakes for Tue AM. This will be followed by another large upper low that will dig from the nrn Rockies into the central Great Plains for late Mon, then across nrn IL for Tue nt. Strong cyclogenesis will then occur late Wed into early Thu over the ern Great Lakes and adjacent Ontario. There are model differences with the location and timing of the cyclogenesis, but overall the upper air pattern will be favorable for at least a prolonged period of moderate snowfall. The snow should begin Mon nt-Tue AM from south to north across the area as the initial upper trough tracks toward MI. However, the heaviest period of snow should occur Tue aft-nt as a mid level TROWAL and associated frontogenesis and isentropic lift affects the area. This lift will be aided aloft by PVA and warm advection at the jet level. Another sigi factor will be lake enhanced snow given brisk nely winds and cooling temps aloft. The ensemble qpf has captured at least some of the LES potential, but will not get too involved with LES details at this time. Overall, the forecasted qpf ranges from 0.50 inches over central WI to near an inch at the IL border. There is an enhanced area of qpf for the lake counties via lake enhancement. Snow probs for 6 inches or more are high for much of srn WI. Blowing and drifting snow may also become an issue as temps cool Tue nt-Wed with brisk nely winds becoming nwly.

LONG TERM . Thursday through Saturday . Forecast confidence medium.

The large occluded low will remain over Quebec for Thu-Fr with a polar airmass to prevail over srn WI. Nly flow aloft will likely bring a few shortwave troughs through the area but the moisture is limited. A sfc ridge will move into WI on Sat.

AVIATION(09Z TAFS) .

Removed low level wind shear mention from TAFs, as west southwest winds at 2000 feet AGL should continue to weaken into this morning. Not expecting fog to occur into this morning, except in localized low spots across the area.

Southwest winds will linger today, with some gusts of 15 to 20 knots later this morning and afternoon, especially near Lake Michigan. Clear skies should linger for most of today.

Winds will become lighter tonight, as they veer west to northwest/north. Continued to mention some low clouds moving into the area this evening and overnight, though uncertain if this will occur. If they do not occur, some light fog may develop later tonight.

MARINE .

Southwest winds will remain breezy today, especially over northern portions of Lake Michigan. Winds will remain below Small Craft Advisory levels. A surface trough will then move east across the lake this evening, shifting winds to the northwest to north later tonight, and weakening them into Monday morning.

Low pressure should move northeast from the southern Plains into central Indiana tonight into Tuesday. It should strengthen as it shifts into the northeastern part of the country later this week.

The low should bring a prolonged period of gusty northeast winds and building waves later Monday into the middle of next week. Winds should gradually shift north to northwest later in the week.

Gales may occur at times Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday over the open waters of Lake Michigan. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed for later Monday night into Thursday for the nearshore waters. Some freezing spray may occur later in the week.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. LM . None.

Update . Wood Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine . Wood Monday THROUGH Saturday . Gehring


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 6 mi26 min SSW 8.9 G 11 35°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 23 mi56 min SW 6 G 9.9 33°F 1012.9 hPa
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 34 mi36 min SSW 8.9 G 12 35°F 1013.5 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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SW9
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SW12
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SW5
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G22
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G20
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SW9
G18
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G12
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G14
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G15
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G14
2 days
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W3
G7
NW9
G13
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G13
N9
G14
N13
G17
N11
G15
N10
G13
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N7
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N5
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W1
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G8
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G6
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G10
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G9
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G8
SW5

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI6 mi41 minSW 1010.00 miFair32°F23°F69%1012.2 hPa
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI8 mi44 minSSW 510.00 miFair34°F23°F64%1012.9 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI13 mi51 minSW 810.00 miClear32°F23°F69%1012.2 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI22 mi43 minSW 810.00 miFair33°F24°F70%1013.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMWC

Wind History from MWC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW11W14
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SW14SW5S6S10SW7SW7SW7
G16
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SW11SW10
G14
SW10SW7SW7SW9SW9
1 day agoSW9SW13
G18
SW9SW15
G20
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G23
SW16
G27
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G25
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2 days agoNW7NW8NW10NW9NW9W7W10W9W8W6SW5SW5SW6SW6SW7W6SW8W5W12W7W9SW8SW10SW8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.