Friday, April10, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Milwaukee, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:15AMSunset 7:30PM Friday April 10, 2020 1:18 PM CDT (18:18 UTC) Moonrise 10:59PMMoonset 8:06AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ644 Port Washington To North Point Light Wi- 106 Pm Cdt Fri Apr 10 2020
Rest of today..West wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Tonight..West wind 5 to 10 knots backing southwest early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots late in the morning, then rising to 15 to 20 knots early in the afternoon becoming south 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Chance of rain in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot building to 2 to 4 feet in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Rain likely through around midnight, then rain after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
LMZ644 Expires:202004102200;;886649 FZUS53 KMKX 101806 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 106 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ644-102200-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Milwaukee, WI
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location: 43.06, -87.97     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 101412 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 912 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2020

UPDATE.

Initial concern will be an area of clouds across the central portion of the forecast area. This should gradually dissipate with time, though may take a bit. This may eventually impact temps in a few areas.

More substantial upstream clouds will then begin to move into the region later this afternoon into tonight.

MARINE.

Northwest winds will decrease today as high pressure centered over the lower Tennessee Valley pushes into the area. Winds then become southerly late tonight and tomorrow ahead of our next storm system.

A frontal boundary associated with this system will stall across the lake on Saturday night, with strengthening north winds across the northern portion of the lake, and strengthening southerly winds over the south half. Strong low pressure will eventually lift into the Ohio Valley Sunday night, causing winds to turn northerly over the entire lake. Winds will eventually become more northwesterly on Monday as the low lifts into lower Michigan.

North and northwest gales look to be a sure bet during this time, with an increasing potential for some storm force gusts, especially on Monday.

PREV DISCUSSION. (Issued 548 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2020)

AVIATION(12Z TAFS) . Surface high draws closer today, with winds shifting from northwest to west with a continuing decreasing trend. VFR deck continues to hold together as it trends into srn WI. Surface high builds in later today into tonight, with some mid level warm air advection kicking in later in the night. So, some increase in VFR cloud coverage then.

PC

PREV DISCUSSION . (Issued 416 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2020)

SHORT TERM .

Today And Tonight . Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Influence of mid-level cyclonic flow and low level thermal trough gradually eases as the day wears on. Low level anticyclonic flow takes hold this afternoon, with winds easing and shifting from the northwest to the west and southwest. Weak warm air advection kicks in as well.

Watching the stratocu deck trending south/southeast from nrn WI. Some of this may hold together into srn WI, but perhaps more in a scattered form. Surface ridge axis shifts to our east tonight, though by and large winds will be on the light side. With dry air in place, should see a decent temp dropoff. However, as night wears on, some increase in clouds expected with 850/925 warm air advection becoming a bit more pronounced.

Saturday Into Monday . Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Models are showing more consistency with the strong low pressure system moving through the region during this period, though there still remains uncertainty with the placement of the best frontogenesis response and subsequent snow amounts for Sunday night into Monday morning. This system has the potential for high impacts across Wisconsin Sunday afternoon into Monday morning.

Models are generally showing warm air and moisture advection Saturday into the area, with increasing chances for rain. An inverted trough setting up across the area Saturday night into Sunday then brings in widespread rain. May see a few claps of thunder Sunday as well, per very weak elevated instability on forecast soundings.

Main impacts and uncertainty comes Sunday night into Monday morning, as the strong low undergoes cyclogenesis and rapidly deepens as it shifts from southeast Missouri to southeast Ontario. The NAM track looks too far to the northwest, so ignored that model solution. The GFS/ECMWF/GFS ensembles seem to be in relatively decent agreement on the low track described above.

However, they are differing on where the deformation/mid-level frontogenesis response will set up. The ECMWF favors more of a La Crosse to Green Bay track for the highest QPF, with the GFS more over southern and eastern Wisconsin. The Canadian is showing somewhat of a blend of the ECMWF/GFS output. Thus, QPF and snow amounts across the area during this time are showing a fairly wide range per model certainty output.

Given the uncertainty here, used the blended model output for QPF Sunday night into Monday morning. Forecast soundings from GFS show a west to east change to snow Sunday night, lingering into Monday morning before ending. Given the range of QPF amounts during this period, there is a shot at several inches of accumulating snow over the area. Best potential would be northwest of Madison.

In addition, strong winds are possible with the deepening low Sunday night into Monday, which would add to the impacts. This is supported by the ensemble percentile output for winds, which are near the 99th percentile for speeds.

Will begin to message this potential for Sunday night into Monday morning, but will not mention specific amounts yet, until more model certainty can be found. Keep up with the forecast for this period.

In addition, the QPF amounts of around 1.00 to 1.25 inches per GEFS plumes suggest river rises are possible early next week. Some of this may be wet snow, but some river response should occur.

LONG TERM .

Monday Night Through Thursday . Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Models are generally showing the region remaining within cyclonic flow at 500 mb during this period. There is a fairly potent 500 mb shortwave trough that shifts east through the area Wednesday, with some timing differences between the models. There should be enough low level moisture and steep low level lapse rates to bring chances for rain/snow showers Wednesday. Otherwise, mainly dry conditions but below normal temperatures are forecast through the week.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. LM . None.

Update . Boxell Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine . Boxell Saturday THROUGH Thursday . 99


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 6 mi39 min NW 8 G 8.9 40°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 23 mi39 min WNW 8 G 16 40°F 1017.6 hPa
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 34 mi79 min WNW 8.9 G 15 39°F 1016.9 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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W16
G29
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G25
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G30
W11
G16
NW5
G12
NW10
G16
W7
G11
W10
G13
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G21
W9
G18
W6
G12
W7
G12
W8
G15
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G11
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G16
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NE6
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N10
G14
SE6
G9
N12
G16
N11
G14
NE2
G5
NW3
W2
W8
G13
W6
G14
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G19
W7
G15
W11
G20
W9
G17
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G17
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G14
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G21
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G19
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G26
W11
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G25
W12
G23
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S10
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G16
SW14
G22
S11
G17
SW12
G17
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G14
W5
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W6
G11
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N15
G20
NW9
G13
NE3
N4
N4
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NE3
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SE3
S1
G4
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NE4
NE9
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NE6

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI6 mi34 minW 1210.00 miOvercast39°F17°F42%1016.9 hPa
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI8 mi27 minNW 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy42°F21°F43%1017.3 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI13 mi34 minW 9 G 1810.00 miOvercast37°F21°F52%1016.9 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI22 mi26 minWNW 10 G 1610.00 miOvercast41°F21°F47%1017.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMWC

Wind History from MWC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW16
G32
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G28
NW14
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W12NW12W11
G17
W12W14
G18
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G16
W8W9W7W7W6W7NW10
G16
NW12W8W9
G15
W12
1 day agoW7W7W5W12
G17
W8S4SW7W5W7W7W9W11
G17
W13
G21
NW15
G25
W13
G19
W11
G18
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G26
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2 days agoSW15
G22
SW11
G22
SW17
G26
W15
G25
NW13
G20
NW10NW6NW8NW7NW12
G17
NW5NW4N4CalmE4SE3SE3CalmCalmCalmW7W6NW3W11

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.