Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Milwaukee, WI

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Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 171142 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 542 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2020

UPDATE. No changes at this time.

AVIATION(12Z TAFS). Lake effect low clouds beginning to affect some lakeshore and inland areas. As low level winds become more east to southeast and increase the next several hours, expect the stratus to become more widespread and expand over the east. Short term guidance hinting that low clouds will be transient and move off to the north later this morning. However with increasing convergence, potentially the stratus could just expand and persist over eastern areas. However, for now wl be more optimistic and keep the low clouds around only for a time in the east this morning. Widespread snow should develop late this afternoon and evening, possibly changing to a period of light freezing rain and drizzle late tonight into early Saturday. Blustery southeast winds will also develop later today, with gusts of 35 knots tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION. (Issued 506 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2020)

SHORT TERM .

Today Through Saturday . Forecast Confidence Is Medium To High.

No significant changes to earlier thinking, but did add a little more icing potential. Potent upstream short wave over southern Nevada will continue on a east to northeast track over the next 36 hours. An increasing low level jet ahead of this wave will rapidly transport warm and moist air northward today. Still expecting column precipitable water to increase rapidly this aftn and evening to 0.50" to 0.75", which is unusually high for this time of year, about 200% of normal. The peak of this moisture and warm air advection is late this afternoon through about 08Z or so, as the short wave amplifies and takes on a slightly negative tilt across the Upper Midwest.

Short term guidance in good agreement on surface low pressure developing in western KS later today and taking a northeast track across IA tonight, passing through southern WI/northern IL Saturday morning. The nose of the low level jet grazes southern WI, but remains mostly to the south and east of the state later tonight into Saturday. So, the highest QPF remains to the south of the area.

There does remain some differences in the short term guidance regarding the amount of low level warm air moving into southern WI later tonight, as well as the amount of drying aloft, above about 8000 feet. The GFS remains the warmest in the low levels later tonight, but also lacks any significant drying aloft. Meanwhile, the NAM and ECWMF are in better agreement with the drying aloft, which reduces the ice falling into the lower cloud layer. This in turn would result in a better chance for a period of light freezing rain, while the GFS favors more of snow and sleet.

At this juncture, prefer the higher resolution of the NAM and ECMWF guidance so wl bump up the mention of a period of light freezing rain and drizzle later tonight into early Saturday. Never the less, all areas will see a period of accumulating snow late this afternoon and evening, with the wintry mix setting in after midnight.

The wintry mix and potential sleet cuts back a little on snowfall amounts. With the best chance for the mix in the southwest, snowfall amounts will range from 3 to 4 inches in this area to 5 to 8 inches in the northeast. Lake enhancement and terrain should result in higher snowfall totals in the Sheboygan, West Bend and Port Washington areas, and with potential gusts to 35 mph, was very close to upgrading this area to a Winter Storm Warning. But, with the lingering uncertainty regarding the potential mix and ultimate snowfall totals, held off on upgrading at this point. So, no changes to Winter Weather Advisory timing or length at this time.

Blustery west winds will carry the colder air back into the region Saturday afternoon. The colder air will dry out the overnight snowfall and should result in areas of blowing and drifting snow into Saturday evening. Temperatures will be steady or falling Saturday afternoon.

Saturday Night Through Monday . Forecast Confidence Is High.

Cold air advection continues Saturday night across the region, with brisk west northwest winds. This will bring cold temperatures into the area, with lows around zero to 5 above zero over most of the area. These lows may be a little lower, given the expected 925 mb temperatures. There will be some clouds lingering Saturday night into Sunday, with 500 mb vorticity maxima lingering nearby, so this may hold up lows a bit.

Wind chills will be in the 15 below to 20 below zero range later Saturday night into Sunday morning, close to Wind Chill Advisory levels. Lower minimum temperatures would lower these wind chills, so this potential will need to be watched.

Northwest flow at 500 mb lingers into Sunday night and Monday, with a 500 mb shortwave trough slowly moving southeast through the region. This may keep some clouds over the region. Cold temperatures should linger during this time, with wind chills of 5 below to 10 below zero Sunday night into Monday morning.

LONG TERM .

Monday Night Through Thursday . Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Models generally show high pressure moving southeast from the northern Plains into the middle Mississippi River Valley Monday night into Tuesday. This should keep the area dry. Cold temperatures should remain during this time, with wind chills in the 5 below to 13 below zero range likely Monday night into Tuesday morning.

South to southwest winds then try to develop with some steady warm air advection For Tuesday night into Wednesday night/Thursday. More moisture may be pulled into the region from the south, ahead of low pressure in the southern or central Plains. More uncertainty exists this far out with features and timing, so will leave blended model PoPs and temperatures for now. Wednesday night into Thursday would be the next chance for precipitation across the area.

AVIATION(09Z TAF UPDATES) .

Low level winds will be shifting to the east to southeast as high pressure ridge over Lake Michigan continues to move off to the east. This winds should pull the large area of low lake clouds currently over the southern open waters of Lake Michigan west and into eastern areas early this morning, with MVFR ceilings. Possible a few flurries may get shaken out of the low clouds.

Otherwise, widespread mid-high level clouds will continue to thicken across southern WI this morning ahead of approaching low pressure. Widespread snow and low ceilings expected tonight with a chance for some light freezing rain or drizzle later tonight into early Saturday. Blustery southeast winds will develop later this afternoon and evening, switching to the west on Saturday.

MARINE .

Gusty southeast winds are expected to develop this evening and linger overnight, before gradually veering west Saturday morning. The winds may decrease in magnitude for a time Saturday morning. West to northwest winds will become gusty again Saturday afternoon and night across the region.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from middle afternoon into middle evening, before a Gale Warning is in effect through Saturday night, for the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan.

A Gale Warning is in effect for the southern two thirds of the open waters of Lake Michigan from later this evening through Saturday night. A Gale Warning is in effect for the northern one third of the open waters from later this evening through middle morning Saturday, with a Gale Watch for Saturday night.

Heavy freezing spray is possible later Saturday night into Sunday morning, with freezing spray at times into early next week.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 PM CST Saturday for WIZ046-047-056-057-062-063-067>069.

Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 6 PM CST Saturday for WIZ051-052-058>060-064>066-070>072.

Lakeshore Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Saturday for WIZ052-060.

LM . Gale Warning from 8 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Sunday for LMZ080-366-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-870-872-874- 876-878.

Gale Watch from Saturday evening through late Saturday night for LMZ261-362-364-563.

Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Saturday for LMZ261-362-364-563.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CST this evening for LMZ643>646.

Gale Warning from 8 PM this evening to 3 AM CST Sunday for LMZ643>646.



Update . mbK Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine . mbK Saturday THROUGH Thursday . Wood

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI	6 mi	22 min	W 2.9 G 4.1	13°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI	23 mi	22 min	W 2.9 G 4.1	10°F			1043.7 hPa
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI	34 mi	62 min	W 4.1 G 6	13°F			1041.7 hPa (-1.0)

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL

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7 AM

8 AM

9 AM

10 AM

11 AM

12 PM

1 PM

2 PM

3 PM

-12 PM

-12 PM

-12 PM

-12 PM

-12 PM

-12 PM

-12 PM

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1 AM

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Last 24hr

W5 G13

W7 G15

W8 G14

NW7 G15

W7 G12

NW9 G12

W3 G11

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W5

NE7

NE9 G12

NE6 G11

E9 G12

E11 G14

1 day ago

E8 G11

E8 G11

E6 G9

NE6

NE4

NE3

N3

N2

W3 G6

W4 G11

W9 G12

W4 G10

W5 G10

W5 G11

W7 G11

W7 G12

W8 G17

W8 G14

W7 G17

W9 G17

W6 G12

W9 G16

W8 G14

W8 G18

2 days ago

SW6 G9

SW4 G7

S9 G12

SW8 G11

SW8 G14

SW7 G13

SW12 G19

SW10 G21

SW11 G17

SW8 G14

SW4 G7

SW3

W2

W1

W2

W2

NW2

N5

N5

NE6

E5 G8

E6 G11

E9

E5 G8

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI	6 mi	67 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Fair	7°F	0°F	72%	1042.7 hPa
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI	8 mi	70 min	NW 4	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	11°F	1°F	67%	1043.8 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI	13 mi	77 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Clear	5°F	0°F	78%	1042 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI	22 mi	69 min	NW 3	10.00 mi	Overcast	12°F	5°F	73%	1043.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMWC

Wind History from MWC (wind in knots)

8 AM

9 AM

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5 PM

6 PM

7 PM

8 PM

9 PM

10 PM

11 PM

12 AM

1 AM

2 AM

3 AM

4 AM

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6 AM

7 AM

Last 24hr

W14 G21

W14 G25

NW19 G25

NW17 G23

NW15 G22

NW13 G17

NW13

W12 G15

NW10

NW9

W6

W5

W5

W5

NW4

N5

N4

NW3

W3

N3

Calm

Calm

Calm

Calm

1 day ago

Calm

E4

E4

E6

NE3

Calm

Calm

N4

N6

NW3

W4

W8

W14 G18

NW13 G23

NW15 G21

W11 G21

W14 G20

NW15 G24

W13 G24

NW14 G22

NW15 G21

W14 G22

NW14 G20

W16 G19

2 days ago

SW3

SW6

SW6

SW11 G15

SW9

W11

W10 G14

W9 G18

W10 G14

W7

W10

SW8

SW6

SW6

SW5

SW3

SW3

Calm

N3

Calm

Calm

Calm

N4

Calm

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (8,2,3,4)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI

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