Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Milwaukee, WI

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Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 052330 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 630 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020

UPDATE. Passing weak short wave and low level convergence triggering isolated to scattered slow moving convection across the area late this afternoon. One slow moving storm has likely produced some minor flooding in the Linden area of Iowa County as 1-2 inches of rain has fallen in about an hour. Expect the activity to gradually wane the next several hours. More patchy late night fog is likely.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS). Isolated showers and t-storms should end in the next several hours with mostly VFR conditions continuing. Expect some patchy late night fog to affect TAF sites, possibly lowering visibility to 1-3 miles for several hours. More isolated to scattered t-storms expected Monday afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION. (Issued 317 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020)

SHORT TERM .

Tonight through Monday night . Confidence is High.

The lake breeze and other surface convergence boundaries have been the focus for convection this afternoon. The combination of slightly drier air near the lake and weaker forcing have kept any storms from really taking off. Also, the main ridge and surface high pressure are focused over central/northern IL. So, some subsidence associated with those features are likely limiting the more robust storms somewhat. Upper flow out of the N/NW would support some of the stronger storms in the northern WI coming south and approaching the region early this evening. Modified pops a bit to account for current trends. Otherwise, we may see another degree or so of warming with highs right near 90 degrees today.

Tonight we should see patchy fog in the favored river valley locations in the west. For Monday we aren't expecting much of a change with highs warming close to 90 degrees again. Models do suggest a weak wave moving across MN and northern WI could support a bit more convection and this could drop south and approach central/southern WI during the afternoon and evening hours Monday. Then as we head into Tuesday morning a more intact shortwave and frontal feature will approach from the NW and bring more scattered storms to the region.

LONG TERM .

Tuesday through Wednesday night . Confidence is Medium.

As mentioned above a slightly stronger shortwave moving across northern WI will generate scattered storms for the late morning and afternoon hours. Although, the latest NAM/CMC suggest the wave would dissipate over western WI Monday night and not much would be left as it enters southern WI. Then during the day the ridge would build back and those models have trended lower for precip chances Tuesday. Certainly something worth watching. In either case, temps should top out in the lower 90s with heat index values in the mid to possibly upper 90s in spots.

Warmer conditions are expected for Wednesday with the ridge strengthening and heat index values approach 100 degrees. While subsidence associated with the ridge could limit activity, with dewpoints in the lower 70s any boundary that exists should be able to spark a storm. So, have kept low chances for storms in for Wednesday.

Thursday through Saturday . Confidence is Medium.

Models remain in decent agreement that the ridge and surface high weaken and shift south for Thursday. This would open the door for a system moving along the US/Canada border to push a frontal boundary into southern WI on Thursday. The hot and humid airmass ahead of this front will be supportive of a few stronger storms as the better forcing moves in. Especially with wind shear increasing to 20-25kts of deep layer shear noted in forecast soundings, so some organization is possible.

This system and frontal boundary push through changing the flow to the NW and bring some small respite from the heat and humidity. Dewpoints likely fall into the upper 50s with highs closer to the low to mid 80s instead of the upper 80s to 90 degrees. A few weak shortwaves dropping S/SE would support isolated storm chances heading into next weekend.

AVIATION(21Z TAFS) .

Thunderstorms have formed along the lake breeze from Racine north to Sheboygan. Heavy downpours lowering vsbys to 3-4sm are possible with any storm. Expect storms to dissipate by 01z this evening leaving mainly clear skies overnight. Patchy fog is possible tonight but confidence is not high enough for impacts to any of the TAF sites. Another day of isolated to scattered storms is forecast for Monday.

MARINE .

High pressure over the southern portion of Lake Michigan will promote light winds and low waves through the middle of the week. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible each afternoon and evening. Then a slightly more organized system will move across the lake Wednesday through Thursday and more scattered to numerous storms are expected. Winds increase a bit out of the SW ahead of this system but gusts stay below 20kts.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. LM . None.

Update . mbK Tonight/Monday and Aviation/Marine . mbK Monday Night through Sunday . Stumpf

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI	6 mi	21 min	ESE 5.1 G 5.1	75°F
45013	7 mi	31 min	S 3.9 G 3.9	76°F	76°F		1014.4 hPa
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI	23 mi	81 min	SSW 2.9 G 5.1	79°F			1014.6 hPa
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI	34 mi	61 min	S 2.9 G 5.1	78°F			1013.5 hPa (-0.7)
45187	41 mi	21 min	S 1.9 G 1.9	77°F	76°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI	6 mi	76 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Clear	82°F	62°F	51%	1014.2 hPa
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI	8 mi	69 min	S 4	10.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	83°F	68°F	61%	1013.2 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI	13 mi	76 min	SSE 4	10.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	81°F	64°F	58%	1014.6 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI	22 mi	68 min	SSW 3	10.00 mi	Fair	80°F	66°F	64%	1013.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMWC

Wind History from MWC (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (22,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI

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