Sunday, August25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Milwaukee, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:06AMSunset 7:42PM Saturday August 24, 2019 11:42 PM CDT (04:42 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 3:00PM Illumination 29% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ644 Port Washington To North Point Light Wi- 1106 Pm Cdt Sat Aug 24 2019
Rest of tonight..East wind 10 to 15 knots veering southeast with gusts to around 20 knots early in the morning. Mostly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots early in the afternoon, then easing to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Sunday night..East wind 10 to 15 knots veering southeast 10 to 20 knots late in the evening, then becoming 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 3 to 4 feet building to 4 to 6 feet early in the morning.
Monday..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots in the late morning and early afternoon, then veering south 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots late in the afternoon. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
LMZ644 Expires:201908251000;;166166 FZUS53 KMKX 250406 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1106 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ644-251000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Milwaukee, WI
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location: 43.06, -87.97     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 250245
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
945 pm cdt Sat aug 24 2019

Update Night-time microphysics satellite enhancement showing
small patches of lower clouds developing over mid lake michigan,
east of the wi il border. With increasing east to southeast low
level flow expected, these low clouds should eventually stream
toward the lakeshore areas overnight. Upstream cirrus should
continue to thin but will affect western areas later in the night.

Temperatures cooling nicely with no changes to overnight lows.

Marine East to northeast winds are expected to veer more to the
east to southeast overnight and remain gusty, mostly 10 to 15 kts,
with a few gusts up to 20 kts.

Prev discussion (issued 620 pm cdt Sat aug 24 2019)
update... A quiet night with the potential for stratus development
in eastern areas, closer to the lake. Uncertain to its development
so wl hold off from introducing more clouds at this time.

Increasing boundary layer mixing should prevent fog development.

Will lower overnight temperatures in susceptible eastern areas but
not quite as cool as last night due to better mixing in the low
levels.

Aviation(00z tafs)... Some short term model guidance hinting at
lake effect stratus developing in the east overnight. Can not
totally rule this out due to low level winds increasing from the
southeast. Forecast soundings show enough moisture in the
2500-3500 ft layer to potentially cause the stratus development.

More sct-bkn CU expected on Sunday, however more mid-high clouds
will begin to stream into the area from the southwest as
protective ridging shifts to the east and warm air and moisture
advection spreads toward the western great lakes.

Prev discussion... (issued 324 pm cdt Sat aug 24 2019)
short term...

tonight through Sunday... Forecast confidence is high
one last beautiful day in this stretch of great weather is on tap
for Sunday. High level cloud cover will be moving in from the
southwest with temperatures and dew points slightly increasing
despite this extra cloud cover.

Sunday night through Tuesday... Forecast confidence is medium
looking at two main rounds or chances for precipitation over this
period. The first will move in late Sunday night going into Monday
morning as an initial mid level short wave trough propagates from
its current position in northeast colorado on into northern
missouri by Sunday afternoon. This feature appears to break into
two pieces with one part of the trough dropping south toward
kentucky tennessee while the part that impacts us gets pulled into
the mean mid level flow on up through the western great lakes. Low
level moisture transport is not very high and there is little to
no 0-3km MUCAPE present as this feature comes in, so am expecting
it mainly to be rain with little to no lightning with it. Kept a
chance in there at the moment, but could see pulling that mention.

The second round is the one to watch as this will give us our
severe potential late Monday afternoon into Monday evening. It is
a fairly conditional setup, starting with how the morning
precipitation cloud cover limits instability in the region. If we
are able to clear out, that will certainly help increase the
sb MLCAPE development ahead of the cold front. Surface winds are
backed to the southeast ahead of the front with mid level winds
increasing to around 50kts at 500mb along the southern periphery
of the long wave trough. Still quite a bit of uncertainty though
with timing and whether those elements come together. The 24.12z
gfs is the fastest with bringing in the mid level winds as the
cold front passes through southern wisconsin, but the 24.12z ecmwf
lags behind with those mid level winds and doesn't bring them in
until the front has passed in the evening. The 24.12z appears to
be a slow outlier and doesn't bring the front through until
Tuesday morning. It will be a low CAPE high shear environment
worth keeping an eye on to see if the parameters come together or
not.

Long term...

Wednesday through Saturday... Forecast confidence is medium
once the front comes through, another round of cooler air will
drop down into the region and linger through much of the week.

Winds should be rather gusty on Wednesday as the surface low
deepens across western ontario. Could see some scattered rain
showers developing in the afternoon Wednesday along that southern
periphery of the low, but confidence wasn't high enough to include
anything at the moment.

After a brief ridge of high pressure swings through late Wednesday
night into Thursday, another cold front will move through the
region Thursday afternoon into early Friday and could provide
another shot at some precipitation.

Aviation(21z tafs)...

vfr conditions expected through Sunday with the CU field already
thinning out. Winds have been gusty at times, particularly near
lake michigan, with some peak gusts around 18-20kt. Going into
Sunday night there will be an increasing chance for rain showers
and possibly some lower flight conditions.

Marine...

a couple windy periods are on tap for the lake on Monday and then
again Wednesday. As a ridge starts to depart the region and a low
pressure system approaches from the west on Monday, winds will
begin to pick up out of the south-southeast and produce some
higher waves along the western side of lake michigan. Will likely
have to have a small craft advisory for that period. After a cold
front swings through on Monday night Tuesday morning, colder air
will move across the lake with a surface low deepening in western
ontario going into Wednesday. Could be approaching gale force wind
gusts on Wednesday, more so on the northern half of the lake. A
brief ridge of high pressure will move through on Thursday before
another cold front approaches from the northwest.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... None.

Update... 99
tonight Sunday and aviation marine... mbk
Sunday night through Saturday... 99


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45013 7 mi43 min ENE 14 G 18 69°F 69°F2 ft1023.3 hPa (-0.4)
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 23 mi63 min ENE 8.9 G 13 68°F 1024.4 hPa
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 34 mi43 min E 14 G 18 70°F 1022.7 hPa (+0.0)
45187 41 mi43 min E 12 G 16 74°F 72°F2 ft
45186 49 mi43 min E 12 G 16 70°F 73°F3 ft

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI6 mi48 minN 010.00 miFair63°F51°F68%1023.7 hPa
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI8 mi51 minENE 910.00 miA Few Clouds67°F55°F68%1022.9 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI13 mi48 minN 010.00 miFair55°F51°F88%1024 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI22 mi50 minENE 1010.00 miFair67°F57°F71%1023.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMWC

Wind History from MWC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4N4N3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE8SE8SE10
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E8NE8E7NE4NE3CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoN3N3CalmN4N4N5N4N5N5NE6E9NE10NE9NE8E10E9NE12
G17
NE9NE8NE8NE3N4N4N4
2 days agoN6N5N6N5N5N3N3CalmNE7NE7NE7E5NE9E6NE7NE7E8NE4NE7NE5NE4NE3NE4NE5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.