Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Milwaukee, WI

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Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 101412 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 912 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2020

UPDATE.

Initial concern will be an area of clouds across the central portion of the forecast area. This should gradually dissipate with time, though may take a bit. This may eventually impact temps in a few areas.

More substantial upstream clouds will then begin to move into the region later this afternoon into tonight.

MARINE.

Northwest winds will decrease today as high pressure centered over the lower Tennessee Valley pushes into the area. Winds then become southerly late tonight and tomorrow ahead of our next storm system.

A frontal boundary associated with this system will stall across the lake on Saturday night, with strengthening north winds across the northern portion of the lake, and strengthening southerly winds over the south half. Strong low pressure will eventually lift into the Ohio Valley Sunday night, causing winds to turn northerly over the entire lake. Winds will eventually become more northwesterly on Monday as the low lifts into lower Michigan.

North and northwest gales look to be a sure bet during this time, with an increasing potential for some storm force gusts, especially on Monday.

PREV DISCUSSION. (Issued 548 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2020)

AVIATION(12Z TAFS) . Surface high draws closer today, with winds shifting from northwest to west with a continuing decreasing trend. VFR deck continues to hold together as it trends into srn WI. Surface high builds in later today into tonight, with some mid level warm air advection kicking in later in the night. So, some increase in VFR cloud coverage then.

PC

PREV DISCUSSION . (Issued 416 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2020)

SHORT TERM .

Today And Tonight . Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Influence of mid-level cyclonic flow and low level thermal trough gradually eases as the day wears on. Low level anticyclonic flow takes hold this afternoon, with winds easing and shifting from the northwest to the west and southwest. Weak warm air advection kicks in as well.

Watching the stratocu deck trending south/southeast from nrn WI. Some of this may hold together into srn WI, but perhaps more in a scattered form. Surface ridge axis shifts to our east tonight, though by and large winds will be on the light side. With dry air in place, should see a decent temp dropoff. However, as night wears on, some increase in clouds expected with 850/925 warm air advection becoming a bit more pronounced.

Saturday Into Monday . Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Models are showing more consistency with the strong low pressure system moving through the region during this period, though there still remains uncertainty with the placement of the best frontogenesis response and subsequent snow amounts for Sunday night into Monday morning. This system has the potential for high impacts across Wisconsin Sunday afternoon into Monday morning.

Models are generally showing warm air and moisture advection Saturday into the area, with increasing chances for rain. An inverted trough setting up across the area Saturday night into Sunday then brings in widespread rain. May see a few claps of thunder Sunday as well, per very weak elevated instability on forecast soundings.

Main impacts and uncertainty comes Sunday night into Monday morning, as the strong low undergoes cyclogenesis and rapidly deepens as it shifts from southeast Missouri to southeast Ontario. The NAM track looks too far to the northwest, so ignored that model solution. The GFS/ECMWF/GFS ensembles seem to be in relatively decent agreement on the low track described above.

However, they are differing on where the deformation/mid-level frontogenesis response will set up. The ECMWF favors more of a La Crosse to Green Bay track for the highest QPF, with the GFS more over southern and eastern Wisconsin. The Canadian is showing somewhat of a blend of the ECMWF/GFS output. Thus, QPF and snow amounts across the area during this time are showing a fairly wide range per model certainty output.

Given the uncertainty here, used the blended model output for QPF Sunday night into Monday morning. Forecast soundings from GFS show a west to east change to snow Sunday night, lingering into Monday morning before ending. Given the range of QPF amounts during this period, there is a shot at several inches of accumulating snow over the area. Best potential would be northwest of Madison.

In addition, strong winds are possible with the deepening low Sunday night into Monday, which would add to the impacts. This is supported by the ensemble percentile output for winds, which are near the 99th percentile for speeds.

Will begin to message this potential for Sunday night into Monday morning, but will not mention specific amounts yet, until more model certainty can be found. Keep up with the forecast for this period.

In addition, the QPF amounts of around 1.00 to 1.25 inches per GEFS plumes suggest river rises are possible early next week. Some of this may be wet snow, but some river response should occur.

LONG TERM .

Monday Night Through Thursday . Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Models are generally showing the region remaining within cyclonic flow at 500 mb during this period. There is a fairly potent 500 mb shortwave trough that shifts east through the area Wednesday, with some timing differences between the models. There should be enough low level moisture and steep low level lapse rates to bring chances for rain/snow showers Wednesday. Otherwise, mainly dry conditions but below normal temperatures are forecast through the week.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. LM . None.

Update . Boxell Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine . Boxell Saturday THROUGH Thursday . 99

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI	6 mi	39 min	NW 8 G 8.9	40°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI	23 mi	39 min	WNW 8 G 16	40°F			1017.6 hPa
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI	34 mi	79 min	WNW 8.9 G 15	39°F			1016.9 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL

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W16 G29

W17 G26

W13 G25

NW21 G30

W11 G16

NW5 G12

NW10 G16

W7 G11

W10 G13

W11 G21

W9 G18

W6 G12

W7 G12

W8 G15

W7 G12

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W8 G12

W8 G11

W10 G16

NW10 G17

NW10 G17

W8 G13

N10 G14

NE10 G13

1 day ago

NE6

NE8

N10 G14

SE6 G9

N12 G16

N11 G14

NE2 G5

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W8 G13

W6 G14

W10 G19

W7 G15

W11 G20

W9 G17

W9 G18

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W11 G21

W8 G19

W13 G26

W11 G20

W12 G25

W12 G23

2 days ago

S10

S11 G16

SW14 G22

S11 G17

SW12 G17

SW8 G14

W5 G9

W6 G11

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N15 G20

NW9 G13

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S1 G4

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI	6 mi	34 min	W 12	10.00 mi	Overcast	39°F	17°F	42%	1016.9 hPa
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI	8 mi	27 min	NW 11	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	42°F	21°F	43%	1017.3 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI	13 mi	34 min	W 9 G 18	10.00 mi	Overcast	37°F	21°F	52%	1016.9 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI	22 mi	26 min	WNW 10 G 16	10.00 mi	Overcast	41°F	21°F	47%	1017.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMWC

Wind History from MWC (wind in knots)

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NW16 G32

NW24 G31

W20 G27

N20 G30

NW20 G28

NW14 G18

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W11 G17

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W14 G18

NW13 G18

NW12 G16

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NW10 G16

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1 day ago

W7

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W12 G17

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W11 G17

W13 G21

NW15 G25

W13 G19

W11 G18

W16 G23

W13 G22

W12 G22

NW14 G26

W16 G26

W16 G25

NW17 G30

NW21 G30

2 days ago

SW15 G22

SW11 G22

SW17 G26

W15 G25

NW13 G20

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NW12 G17

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Calm

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W7

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W11

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (14,3,4,5)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI

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