Sunday, July5, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Milwaukee, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:17AMSunset 8:35PM Sunday July 5, 2020 9:01 PM CDT (02:01 UTC) Moonrise 9:23PMMoonset 5:32AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ644 Port Washington To North Point Light Wi- 706 Pm Cdt Sun Jul 5 2020
Tonight..South wind 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest after midnight, then becoming southwest 5 knots early in the morning. Isolated showers in the evening. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday..Southwest wind 5 knots becoming south late in the morning, then rising to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday night..South wind 5 to 10 knots veering southwest early in the morning. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves around 1 foot.
Tuesday..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots backing south late in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.
LMZ644 Expires:202007060400;;381272 FZUS53 KMKX 060007 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 706 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ644-060400-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Milwaukee, WI
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location: 43.06, -87.97     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 052330 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 630 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020

UPDATE. Passing weak short wave and low level convergence triggering isolated to scattered slow moving convection across the area late this afternoon. One slow moving storm has likely produced some minor flooding in the Linden area of Iowa County as 1-2 inches of rain has fallen in about an hour. Expect the activity to gradually wane the next several hours. More patchy late night fog is likely.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS). Isolated showers and t-storms should end in the next several hours with mostly VFR conditions continuing. Expect some patchy late night fog to affect TAF sites, possibly lowering visibility to 1-3 miles for several hours. More isolated to scattered t-storms expected Monday afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION. (Issued 317 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020)

SHORT TERM .

Tonight through Monday night . Confidence is High.

The lake breeze and other surface convergence boundaries have been the focus for convection this afternoon. The combination of slightly drier air near the lake and weaker forcing have kept any storms from really taking off. Also, the main ridge and surface high pressure are focused over central/northern IL. So, some subsidence associated with those features are likely limiting the more robust storms somewhat. Upper flow out of the N/NW would support some of the stronger storms in the northern WI coming south and approaching the region early this evening. Modified pops a bit to account for current trends. Otherwise, we may see another degree or so of warming with highs right near 90 degrees today.

Tonight we should see patchy fog in the favored river valley locations in the west. For Monday we aren't expecting much of a change with highs warming close to 90 degrees again. Models do suggest a weak wave moving across MN and northern WI could support a bit more convection and this could drop south and approach central/southern WI during the afternoon and evening hours Monday. Then as we head into Tuesday morning a more intact shortwave and frontal feature will approach from the NW and bring more scattered storms to the region.

LONG TERM .

Tuesday through Wednesday night . Confidence is Medium.

As mentioned above a slightly stronger shortwave moving across northern WI will generate scattered storms for the late morning and afternoon hours. Although, the latest NAM/CMC suggest the wave would dissipate over western WI Monday night and not much would be left as it enters southern WI. Then during the day the ridge would build back and those models have trended lower for precip chances Tuesday. Certainly something worth watching. In either case, temps should top out in the lower 90s with heat index values in the mid to possibly upper 90s in spots.

Warmer conditions are expected for Wednesday with the ridge strengthening and heat index values approach 100 degrees. While subsidence associated with the ridge could limit activity, with dewpoints in the lower 70s any boundary that exists should be able to spark a storm. So, have kept low chances for storms in for Wednesday.

Thursday through Saturday . Confidence is Medium.

Models remain in decent agreement that the ridge and surface high weaken and shift south for Thursday. This would open the door for a system moving along the US/Canada border to push a frontal boundary into southern WI on Thursday. The hot and humid airmass ahead of this front will be supportive of a few stronger storms as the better forcing moves in. Especially with wind shear increasing to 20-25kts of deep layer shear noted in forecast soundings, so some organization is possible.

This system and frontal boundary push through changing the flow to the NW and bring some small respite from the heat and humidity. Dewpoints likely fall into the upper 50s with highs closer to the low to mid 80s instead of the upper 80s to 90 degrees. A few weak shortwaves dropping S/SE would support isolated storm chances heading into next weekend.

AVIATION(21Z TAFS) .

Thunderstorms have formed along the lake breeze from Racine north to Sheboygan. Heavy downpours lowering vsbys to 3-4sm are possible with any storm. Expect storms to dissipate by 01z this evening leaving mainly clear skies overnight. Patchy fog is possible tonight but confidence is not high enough for impacts to any of the TAF sites. Another day of isolated to scattered storms is forecast for Monday.

MARINE .

High pressure over the southern portion of Lake Michigan will promote light winds and low waves through the middle of the week. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible each afternoon and evening. Then a slightly more organized system will move across the lake Wednesday through Thursday and more scattered to numerous storms are expected. Winds increase a bit out of the SW ahead of this system but gusts stay below 20kts.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. LM . None.

Update . mbK Tonight/Monday and Aviation/Marine . mbK Monday Night through Sunday . Stumpf


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 6 mi21 min ESE 5.1 G 5.1 75°F
45013 7 mi31 min S 3.9 G 3.9 76°F 76°F1014.4 hPa
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 23 mi81 min SSW 2.9 G 5.1 79°F 1014.6 hPa
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 34 mi61 min S 2.9 G 5.1 78°F 1013.5 hPa (-0.7)
45187 41 mi21 min S 1.9 G 1.9 77°F 76°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI6 mi76 minN 010.00 miClear82°F62°F51%1014.2 hPa
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI8 mi69 minS 410.00 miPartly Cloudy83°F68°F61%1013.2 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI13 mi76 minSSE 410.00 miPartly Cloudy81°F64°F58%1014.6 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI22 mi68 minSSW 310.00 miFair80°F66°F64%1013.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMWC

Wind History from MWC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4W4W8W3CalmW3E5E8SE7SE5S5CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoNE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N5N6E4E4E4NE4E3NE5E4E8NE5E5E5E4Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm----CalmE4E6E6E8NE6E7E6N4N4NE4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.