Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Minoa, NY
February 8, 2025 2:06 PM EST (19:06 UTC) Change Location
![]() | Sunrise 7:09 AM Sunset 5:28 PM Moonrise 1:04 PM Moonset 4:47 AM |
LOZ044 Expires:202502082215;;499684 Fzus51 Kbuf 081436 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 936 am est Sat feb 8 2025
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-082215- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 936 am est Sat feb 8 2025
Rest of today - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Snow showers likely late this morning, then a chance of snow showers early this afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight - East winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northeast. Snow. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Sunday - North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Lake effect snow showers likely. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Sunday night - West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. Lake effect snow showers likely. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Monday - Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Lake effect snow showers likely during the day, then a chance of snow showers Monday night. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. A chance of snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east 15 to 20 knots. Snow showers Wednesday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
the water temperature off rochester is 36 degrees.
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 936 am est Sat feb 8 2025
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-082215- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 936 am est Sat feb 8 2025
the water temperature off rochester is 36 degrees.
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Area Discussion for Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 081732 AFDBGM
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1232 PM EST Sat Feb 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
A low pressure system moves through tonight bringing widespread snowfall. NY will see mostly snow overnight while there will be a wintery mix that develops in NE PA south of the Northern Tier. The Mohawk Valley into the northern Catskills could see snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour overnight with a winter storm warning in place.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
Only minor changes withe the midday update, previous discussion below.
Added the mention of flurries and a few snow showers across a wider portion of central New York this morning with some locations showing a slight visibility reduction. QPF and resultant snowfall would be a dusting or so ending by noon.
Continued concern over more widespread 1-2 inch per hour rates looking at the latest model F-GEN and QPF. A lot of the modeling on precipitation maps looks to be overdoing the sleet when steady precipitation is falling. Soundings are completely below freezing in some of the locations along the NY/PA border.
These subtle adjustments and slight QPF uptick so far on the 12Z model runs may require a slight expansion of the warnings later this afternoon.
640 AM Update...
The snowfall forecast continues to be a challenge with the latest 6Z model runs. There will be a period of strong lift through the dendritic growth zone shortly after precipitation onset for much of the region as the 850-700 mb frontogenesis lifts through the region. With snowfall rates under the band likely between 1 to 2 inches per hour any slowing of the band could cause higher totals just S of the warning area in the Southern Catskills. NEPA is also a challenge as there is hints at good low level fgen leading to higher precipitation rates.
Confidence is a bit higher that it will mix with sleet so no changes were made to the totals this update.
415 AM Update...
Lake effect snow is winding down early this morning with weak upper level ridging building in. The surface low that will bring snow to the region this evening is just starting to develop in eastern Kansas. With a strong jest streak forming across the central US the surface low will quickly propagate up the Ohio River Valley through the day with clouds increasing through the day. The timing of arrival of the storm has not changed though trends have been towards a slightly deeper surface low with higher QPF amounts. Looking at 700 mb, there is a good frontogenesis band that moves through the region between 6pm and 12am with it the strongest over the Catskills into the Tug Hill in the late evening. The 700 mb low stays as an open wave though there is a closed low at 850 mb that deepens as it moves through CNY this evening. A stronger snow band along the 850 mb low path is looking more likely so Oneida, Madison, Chenango, and Otsego counties were upgraded to a winter storm warning.
NEPA was a challenge with forecasting snowfall as there is good 850 mb fgen that moves through in the early evening. This will lead to a period of higher snowfall rates that may be an inch or 2 per hour. If the change over to sleet is off by an hour or two, snowfall could quickly push towards warning criteria.
Forecast soundings showed that the 850 mb temperatures were very close to freezing at the peak intensity of the precipitation so there is a chance that it ends up mixing with sleet at times.
Given that the 850 mb winds will be out of the SSW at around 50 knots, the error will likely be on the warm side, especially for the Wyoming Valley with some downsloping off of the Poconos.
Without much blocking in the North Atlantic, the low moves through the region pretty fast with snow winding down by around 7am as cold air advection takes over. Some lake effect snow showers are possible on Sunday with the cold air advection but organized bands are unlikely.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
245 AM update...
Lake effect snow showers will continue into Sunday night over the northern portion of our area. Accumulations up to 2 inches of snow are possible over northern Oneida, otherwise minor accumulations of a few tenths of an inch are expected north and along the NY Thruway.
Temperatures fall into the low to mid teens overnight as colder air settles into the region. Lake effect lingers into Monday morning over central NY gradually lifting over Oneida county as flow shifts west. Temperatures look to be several degrees cooler on Monday as colder air continues to filter into the region. Highs will range in the low to upper 20s with overnight lows in the single digits. Lake effect is expected to continue Monday night north of I-90. Otherwise quite conditions will persist for most of the region on Monday.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
245 AM update...
More active period is expected with a few systems expected to track over the area. Model guidance shows a system tracking just south of our region on Tuesday, but there is still some uncertainty how far north it will extend into northeast PA. Meanwhile a short wave tracks over the Great Lakes and into our region sometime Tuesday night. If this zonal flow pattern is similar to what we are seeing this weekend, these two features could merge, therefore pulling precipitation further north. At this time models keep cold air in place, with snow as the expected p-type. Otherwise some lake effect showers will be possible on Tuesday ahead of these features.
Wednesday will remain relatively quiet ahead of the next approaching system. An upper level trough over the central US amplifies an upper level ridge over the east coast Wednesday night into Thursday. This allows southerly flow to set up advecting warm air and moisture into the region. It is too soon to pinpoint p-type as there is decent variation in guidance.
Northwest flow and lake effect seem to follow on Friday.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR for the afternoon. SNow then moves in from 22-02Z with MVFR and IFR ceilings. Moderate snow with LIFR visibilities expected for a time this evening into the overnight roughly 01-06Z at all NY TAF sites. Also a high likelihood KAVP goes over to a period of sleet in the 03-07Z timeframe. Visibilities come up once the snow ends in the 06-09Z window with lingering MVFR ceilings and a few light snow showers and/or patchy freezing drizzle till about 12Z Sunday. MVFR ceilings should linger past 12Z Sunday though.
Outlook...
Sunday afternoon and night... Generally MVFR ceilings, a few snow showers possible.
Monday...A few lake effect snow showers or flurries possible; restrictions possible for CNY terminals. Mainly VFR at AVP.
Monday night and Tuesday: VFR.
Tuesday night through Wednesday... Chance of snow and associated restrictions for all terminals but KSYR and KRME.
Wednesday night and Thursday... A wintry mix, LLWS possible Wednesday night into early Thursday.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Sunday for PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ009-036-037-045-046.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ015>018-022>025-044-055-056.
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ057-062.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1232 PM EST Sat Feb 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
A low pressure system moves through tonight bringing widespread snowfall. NY will see mostly snow overnight while there will be a wintery mix that develops in NE PA south of the Northern Tier. The Mohawk Valley into the northern Catskills could see snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour overnight with a winter storm warning in place.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
Only minor changes withe the midday update, previous discussion below.
Added the mention of flurries and a few snow showers across a wider portion of central New York this morning with some locations showing a slight visibility reduction. QPF and resultant snowfall would be a dusting or so ending by noon.
Continued concern over more widespread 1-2 inch per hour rates looking at the latest model F-GEN and QPF. A lot of the modeling on precipitation maps looks to be overdoing the sleet when steady precipitation is falling. Soundings are completely below freezing in some of the locations along the NY/PA border.
These subtle adjustments and slight QPF uptick so far on the 12Z model runs may require a slight expansion of the warnings later this afternoon.
640 AM Update...
The snowfall forecast continues to be a challenge with the latest 6Z model runs. There will be a period of strong lift through the dendritic growth zone shortly after precipitation onset for much of the region as the 850-700 mb frontogenesis lifts through the region. With snowfall rates under the band likely between 1 to 2 inches per hour any slowing of the band could cause higher totals just S of the warning area in the Southern Catskills. NEPA is also a challenge as there is hints at good low level fgen leading to higher precipitation rates.
Confidence is a bit higher that it will mix with sleet so no changes were made to the totals this update.
415 AM Update...
Lake effect snow is winding down early this morning with weak upper level ridging building in. The surface low that will bring snow to the region this evening is just starting to develop in eastern Kansas. With a strong jest streak forming across the central US the surface low will quickly propagate up the Ohio River Valley through the day with clouds increasing through the day. The timing of arrival of the storm has not changed though trends have been towards a slightly deeper surface low with higher QPF amounts. Looking at 700 mb, there is a good frontogenesis band that moves through the region between 6pm and 12am with it the strongest over the Catskills into the Tug Hill in the late evening. The 700 mb low stays as an open wave though there is a closed low at 850 mb that deepens as it moves through CNY this evening. A stronger snow band along the 850 mb low path is looking more likely so Oneida, Madison, Chenango, and Otsego counties were upgraded to a winter storm warning.
NEPA was a challenge with forecasting snowfall as there is good 850 mb fgen that moves through in the early evening. This will lead to a period of higher snowfall rates that may be an inch or 2 per hour. If the change over to sleet is off by an hour or two, snowfall could quickly push towards warning criteria.
Forecast soundings showed that the 850 mb temperatures were very close to freezing at the peak intensity of the precipitation so there is a chance that it ends up mixing with sleet at times.
Given that the 850 mb winds will be out of the SSW at around 50 knots, the error will likely be on the warm side, especially for the Wyoming Valley with some downsloping off of the Poconos.
Without much blocking in the North Atlantic, the low moves through the region pretty fast with snow winding down by around 7am as cold air advection takes over. Some lake effect snow showers are possible on Sunday with the cold air advection but organized bands are unlikely.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
245 AM update...
Lake effect snow showers will continue into Sunday night over the northern portion of our area. Accumulations up to 2 inches of snow are possible over northern Oneida, otherwise minor accumulations of a few tenths of an inch are expected north and along the NY Thruway.
Temperatures fall into the low to mid teens overnight as colder air settles into the region. Lake effect lingers into Monday morning over central NY gradually lifting over Oneida county as flow shifts west. Temperatures look to be several degrees cooler on Monday as colder air continues to filter into the region. Highs will range in the low to upper 20s with overnight lows in the single digits. Lake effect is expected to continue Monday night north of I-90. Otherwise quite conditions will persist for most of the region on Monday.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
245 AM update...
More active period is expected with a few systems expected to track over the area. Model guidance shows a system tracking just south of our region on Tuesday, but there is still some uncertainty how far north it will extend into northeast PA. Meanwhile a short wave tracks over the Great Lakes and into our region sometime Tuesday night. If this zonal flow pattern is similar to what we are seeing this weekend, these two features could merge, therefore pulling precipitation further north. At this time models keep cold air in place, with snow as the expected p-type. Otherwise some lake effect showers will be possible on Tuesday ahead of these features.
Wednesday will remain relatively quiet ahead of the next approaching system. An upper level trough over the central US amplifies an upper level ridge over the east coast Wednesday night into Thursday. This allows southerly flow to set up advecting warm air and moisture into the region. It is too soon to pinpoint p-type as there is decent variation in guidance.
Northwest flow and lake effect seem to follow on Friday.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR for the afternoon. SNow then moves in from 22-02Z with MVFR and IFR ceilings. Moderate snow with LIFR visibilities expected for a time this evening into the overnight roughly 01-06Z at all NY TAF sites. Also a high likelihood KAVP goes over to a period of sleet in the 03-07Z timeframe. Visibilities come up once the snow ends in the 06-09Z window with lingering MVFR ceilings and a few light snow showers and/or patchy freezing drizzle till about 12Z Sunday. MVFR ceilings should linger past 12Z Sunday though.
Outlook...
Sunday afternoon and night... Generally MVFR ceilings, a few snow showers possible.
Monday...A few lake effect snow showers or flurries possible; restrictions possible for CNY terminals. Mainly VFR at AVP.
Monday night and Tuesday: VFR.
Tuesday night through Wednesday... Chance of snow and associated restrictions for all terminals but KSYR and KRME.
Wednesday night and Thursday... A wintry mix, LLWS possible Wednesday night into early Thursday.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Sunday for PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ009-036-037-045-046.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ015>018-022>025-044-055-056.
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ057-062.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY | 38 mi | 49 min | 28°F |
Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KSYR
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KSYR
Wind History Graph: SYR
(wind in knots)GEOS Local Image of north east
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