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LOZ044 Expires:202312120415;;301661 Fzus51 Kbuf 112016 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 316 pm est Mon dec 11 2023
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-120415- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 316 pm est Mon dec 11 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday morning...
Tonight..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest. A chance of snow showers early, then snow showers late this evening. A chance of snow showers after midnight. Waves 6 to 10 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots increasing to 30 knots. A chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Tuesday night..West winds to 30 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers in the evening, then lake effect snow likely overnight. Waves 7 to 11 feet. Waves occasionally around 14 feet.
Wednesday..West winds to 30 knots. Lake effect snow. Waves 7 to 11 feet. Waves occasionally around 14 feet.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Lake effect snow in the evening, then a chance of snow showers overnight. Waves 5 to 9 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Thursday..West winds 15 to 25 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Friday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy, then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Saturday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
the water temperature off rochester is 45 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBGM 112101 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 401 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

SYNOPSIS
Lake effect showers will stream into the Twin Tiers off of Lake Ontario and Erie into the overnight hours. High pressure builds in late tonight, cutting off the lake effect showers and bringing warmer, dry conditions for Tuesday. Another cold front comes through Wednesday with additional chances for lake effect snow showers. High pressure and warmer temperatures build into the region later in the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
255 PM Update...

Lake effect snow showers streaming across the area will be the main weather issue through the overnight hours. Current radar returns show snow bands across the area, but much of this is not reaching the ground. Currently, the only precipitation being recorded at the ground is across Onondaga, Madison and Oneida counties as the upstream moisture connection to the Georgian Bay is being taken advantage over this area. Snow showers are expected to continue over this area into the evening, with guidance suggesting a little more organized band or two may set up over these counties. Temperatures are hovering around or just above freezing right now, which will limit accumulation through the afternoon hours. 850mb temps of -10 to -11C are cold enough to get the lake effect machine going, but the surface temps and low SLRs are hindering the accumulation amounts. The Winter Weather Advisory was cancelled due to lack of accumulations expected over the next few hours. 1-2 inches of snow expected across higher elevations through the overnight hours, with valley locations seeing maybe another inch. These snow bands are expected to migrate northward as a ridge of high pressure builds in from the west. Northern Oneida will see the last snow around sunrise before it completely leaves the CWA.
Current temps in the mid to low 30s will slowly fall into the upper 20s to low 30s tonight.

SW flow returns Tuesday as we are sandwiched between a ridge of high pressure to our SSE and an approaching trough over the northern Great Lakes. Temperatures are expected to warm into the upper 30s to low 40s with partly cloudy skies and dry conditions expected. The dry and warm conditions will not last long as another cold front/trough digs into the region Tuesday evening.
Along the initial cold front, we will see a rain snow mix Tuesday evening turn to all snow shortly after onset across the northern Finger Lakes into Oneida county. The southward extent of this is not far as the overall flow will remain mostly westerly as our CWA hangs under the southern portion of a broad upper level trough. The lake effect snow machine gets cranking again Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, but the best chance for heavier snow amounts will be north of our CWA border.
Currently, up to 2 inches is expected mostly along and north of the NY Thruway. South of here, up to an inch of snow is forecast. Temperatures will fall into the mid to upper 20s Tuesday night.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
400 PM Update:

The short term period will feature accumulating lake effect snow for parts of Central NY southeast of Lake Ontario, but with mainly dry conditions for Northeast PA.

During the day on Wednesday, 850mb temperatures will continue falling to around -12C. A passing shortwave will allow the band of lake effect snow to drift southward into Oneida county and eventually towards the NY Thruway corridor. The more transient nature of the band as it drifts southward will likely prevent any significant snow accumulations, but a few inches of snow will be possible. Winter weather headlines may be needed as we get closer. Across Northeast PA, skies will be partly to mostly sunny, although cannot rule out a stray snow shower reaching the far Northern Tier. Highs are expected to be in the 30s.

Lake effect snow showers continue Wednesday night, drifting south of the NY Thruway corridor. By late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning, the lake effect snow showers should be winding down as high pressure approaches the area. Lows are expected to be in the mid teens to mid 20s.

High pressure will bring dry conditions with mostly sunny skies on Thursday, although a lingering morning flurry cannot be ruled out across the Finger Lakes Region. Highs are expected to be in the mid to upper 30s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
400 PM Update:

Unusually quiet weather is expected during the long term period with high pressure dominating over our region. This will also result in mostly sunny skies during the daytime and mostly clear skies at night. Temperatures will be mild during this period with highs mainly in the 40s and lows mainly in the upper 20s and 30s.

By late in the weekend into the beginning of next week, some model guidance is hinting at a low pressure system developing across the Mid-Atlantic and moving along the coast, which may bring some unsettled weather. Meanwhile other solutions keep this system to the south and east with high pressure remaining in control.

AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Lake effect snow showers are streaming across the area from NW to SE. All terminals except for ELM should see MVFR ceilings through the afternoon hours. As the winds shift more westerly by the evening, clouds decks at AVP/BGM/ITH will lift to VFR.

SYR and RME will see impacts from lake effect snow showers into the overnight hours. Prevailing MVFR with Tempo IFR conditions will be possible at these terminals as the showers move in and out of the terminal area. Timing and location are hard to pin down with these type of showers so a broad 4hr Tempo this afternoon should capture the periodic IFR conditions. RME may see another round of IFR conditions later tonight as the winds shift more westerly and a diffuse band of snow swings through the area.

Winds gusting to 30kts will be possible at RME and SYR this afternoon. These should begin to weaken later this evening.

Outlook...

Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR-MVFR depending on lake effect showers.

Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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