Thursday, August22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Jordan, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:18AMSunset 7:59PM Thursday August 22, 2019 1:47 PM EDT (17:47 UTC) Moonrise 10:36PMMoonset 12:03PM Illumination 54% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Sodus Bay To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario- 1025 Am Edt Thu Aug 22 2019
This afternoon..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Becoming partly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Mainly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east 10 knots or less. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Sunday..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Mainly clear, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
LOZ044 Expires:201908222115;;036355 FZUS51 KBUF 221425 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1025 AM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ044-222115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Jordan, NY
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location: 43.07, -76.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 221437
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area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
1037 am edt Thu aug 22 2019

Synopsis
Cooler and drier air will filter in across the region today, with
just the chance for a few showers toward the pennsylvania state
line. A large area of high pressure will then settle across the area
bringing a nice stretch of dry and comfortable weather through early
next week.

Near term through tonight
Radar imagery showing some returns over lake erie heading into
the southern tier at 1030am. Most of this is likely aloft
falling as sprinkles or brief showers with at 15-20f t TD spread
at the surface. Will keep this region under a low probability of
measurable rain through early afternoon, as the southern end of
a cold front continues to slowly move east across the ny pa
state line.

Otherwise canadian high pressure will build in across the area
today. This will usher in a much cooler and drier, early fall-
like airmass across the region. Comfortable temperatures and
humidity levels will be experienced today. Highs will be in the
lower to middle 70s, with some spots across the higher terrain
not getting out of the upper 60s.

Strong canadian high pressure to the NW will continue to build
across the area ensuring dry weather across the entire region
tonight. Clear to partly cloudy skies and light winds will make for
excellent radiational cooling conditions. This will allow for fog to
form in the southern tier river valleys. Cold air advection will
continue in earnest as 850mb temperatures plunge to around +8 to +9c
by early Friday morning. This will translate to some fairly cool,
but comfortable overnight temperatures by august standards, as lows
drop back into the lower to middle 50s area wide, with some upper
40s across the the interior higher terrain.

Short term Friday through Sunday night
No large changes to going forecast. Still on track for first taste
of fall-like conditions across the forecast area this time frame.

Cold air advection continuing behind the cold front moving through
this morning will keep a much cooler airmass in place for Friday and
Saturday. After a stretch of humid conditions, a refreshingly less
humid airmass will take hold right into the weekend.

Friday into Saturday night, a cool NW flow will eventually turn
nne across the region with h85 temps down to +7c, beginning to
slightly moderate by late Saturday. Cool air aloft riding over
very warm waters of lake ontario and lake erie results in a
conditionally unstable airmass for lake effect processes, but
soundings remain very dry. Most likely scenario will be no lake
effect showers but a blossoming of stratocu clouds late morning
into the afternoon both days. Daytime highs on Friday and
Saturday should top out mainly in the upper 60s over southern
tier and higher terrain east of lake ontario to the lower 70s
elsewhere. Canadian sourced high pressure will provide light
winds and clear skies overnight Friday night and Saturday night
which may result in some valley fog both nights across the
southern tier, and to a lesser extent east of lake ontario in
the black river valley. Clear skies, light winds and dry airmass
points to lows falling as cool as the mid 40s in the typical
cold spots in the southern tier and east of lake ontario.

Elsewhere, readings will fall to the lower to mid 50s.

Sunday and Sunday night, a gradual warming trend begins as the broad
canadian sourced high slowly slides east. This will allow return
southerly flow to develop across our region which will encourage a
return to near normal highs, mid and upper 70s. We'll still hang on
to the lower humidity though so it should be a nice day for outdoor
activities. Sunday night, the center of the surface high pressure
slides further east to new brunswick and prince edward island.

However, it will continue to maintain dry conditions as we head into
the new work week. It won't be as cool overnight with lows expected
in the 50s to low 60s by sunrise Monday morning.

Long term Monday through Wednesday
A return to above normal temperatures is likely during the long
term period.

At least with latest model runs, medium range guidance has come
into better agreement with respect to how quickly the ridge
slides further east and out to sea, and how quickly the next
trough and associated moisture approaches from the west. GFS has
been fastest with this overall scenario last couple days by
bringing chances for convection into our region on Tuesday where
the canadian and ECMWF had been slower, especially the ecmwf.

At least for now, seems that GFS idea is supported more by
canadian and ecmwf, so have increased pops for Tuesday. Even so
pops will remain only chance level for showers and thunderstorms.

With the above said, the combination of general airmass modification
and strengthening warm air advection will lead to a day-to-day
warming trend through this period with highs climbing into the low
to mid 80s by midweek.

Aviation 15z Thursday through Monday
An expansive stratocumulus deck continues to slowly move east
with a cold front stretching from the ohio valley ene across the
ny pa line and into the adirondacks with some MVFR cigs. This
should improve toVFR by early afternoon. Otherwise, expectVFR
conditions through the evening. Clear to partly cloudy skies
and light winds will make for excellent radiational cooling
conditions overnight. This will allow for fog to form in the
southern tier river valleys late.

Outlook...

Friday through Monday... MainlyVFR with nothing more than southern
tier valley fog producing local ifr conditions each late night and
morning.

Marine
Winds behind a cold front are in the process of shifting northwest,
but the winds into this afternoon are not expected to be as strong
as previously forecast. As a result, the small craft advisories for
lake ontario have been cancelled. Will certainly still have choppy
conditions, though criteria will not technically be met.

Winds come around to the north-northeast tonight then become light
northwest on Friday. Another push of north-northeast winds could
result in another period of choppy conditions late Friday night into
Saturday on lake ontario, but again it looks like conditions stay
below small craft advisory criteria. Winds and waves will diminish
later Saturday afternoon into Sunday.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jm
near term... Jm zaff
short term... Ar jla
long term... Ar jla
aviation... Jm zaff
marine... Jla


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 27 mi48 min W 17 G 21 70°F 1013.5 hPa (+1.1)58°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 60 mi48 min WNW 7 G 9.9 71°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 61 mi48 min 72°F 1013.3 hPa (+0.6)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY20 mi54 minW 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F55°F54%1013.2 hPa
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY21 mi54 minW 1310.00 miFair72°F55°F57%1013.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSYR

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW7N3CalmW6W6CalmE4E53--Calm--SW6SW6SW7--W9--W7W9W11W10W13W10
1 day agoW6W7W10--4S5NE5E5E5----------E4E3NE3NW5----CalmS3S3S3
2 days agoW8
G16
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--W8W9NW8W6W4W4SW4--------CalmCalm--CalmCalmW4--SW4CalmW7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.