Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Jordan, NY

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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 101049 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 649 AM EDT Sat Apr 10 2021

SYNOPSIS. Near record warmth and dry weather will return today as weak high pressure builds into the eastern Great Lakes. A front will then slowly cross the region from southwest to northeast late tonight and Sunday with periods of rain and possibly a few scattered thunderstorms. A slow moving upper level low will then bring unsettled weather for much of next week along with cooler and more seasonable temperatures.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/. A weak trough will cross Western NY this morning, producing a few patches of cloud cover. Meanwhile, an area of low stratus from the Atlantic marine layer will continue across portions of Cattaraugus and Allegany counties this morning before mixing out around midday. This area of clouds will initially keep temperatures cool locally across the Southern Tier.

With the exception of the two areas of morning clouds mentioned above, sunshine will prevail for most of today with weak high pressure and a bubble of drier air over the eastern Great Lakes. Sunshine, southeast downslope winds, and dry ground will allow temperatures to overachieve again today, especially on the lake plains with highs in the lower 80s. The higher terrain of the Southern Tier and North Country will see highs in the 70s. Record highs will be in jeopardy again today, especially at Buffalo and Watertown. The Rochester record is a little higher and will be difficult to reach.

Tonight will start dry with high pressure and dry air still in place. Late tonight and Sunday a compact mid level closed low will move from Illinois to northwest Ohio, with a surface low becoming vertically stacked with time. A cold front spreading downstream of the system will become increasingly occluded as it moves into the eastern Great Lakes. Moisture convergence and deep moisture along the frontal zone will be aided by DPVA ahead of a mid level shortwave, resulting in a widespread area of rain moving into Western NY late tonight, reaching the Genesee Valley Sunday morning, before finally reaching the eastern Lake Ontario region Sunday afternoon. Model soundings suggest there may be just enough elevated instability associated with this to support some isolated, embedded thunder as well.

Later Sunday afternoon modest insolation just behind the advancing area of widespread rain will result in SBCAPE of around 500J/kg across portions of Western NY, the Genesee Valley, and eventually Central NY. This will support increasing coverage of showers during the afternoon and evening to the west of the initial area of showers, and may also support a few scattered thunderstorms. Weak instability, poor lapse rates, and weak shear will keep the risk of any strong convection low, but a few storms may produce heavy downpours.

The rain will be beneficial, with much of the area now classified as moderate drought. Rainfall amounts will average 0.25"-0.50", but embedded areas of thunder will modulate this and result in locally higher amounts for a few areas.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. A shortwave behind the closed the low over the western Great Lakes Sunday night will eventually develop into its own closed low. Then, the mature closed low, now over the central Great Lakes will weaken and be engulfed into the new forming low by Monday night.

Meanwhile at the surface, the occluded front from earlier in the day on Sunday will stall across the eastern half of the region Sunday night into Monday. As the shortwave interacts with the closed low aloft on Monday, a new surface low will form over Northern Wisconsin Monday, where it will then drape its associated warm front across the area. The surface low will then remain in place over northern Wisconsin Monday night where it will mature to occlusion. And yet another occluded front will be progged to cross the area Tuesday.

This all being said, chances for showers will continue throughout the beginning of the new work week. Though the period will start off primarily dry across the western portions of the Finger Lakes into Western New York.

Temperatures throughout this time will see day to day cooling, with highs to start off the period in the mid to low 60s and cool to the upper 50s to low 60s by Tuesday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. Through this period, a closed upper level low will slowly spiral across the Eastern Great Lakes region, with the potential for rain showers from slight chance to chance each day. Timing the shortwaves embedded in this feature is tough at this point in time, and with model differences will side close to continuity and NBM with the PoPs. A small note of hope is the low should be exiting the East Coast by the end of the work week, which will support a drying trend at the end of the week.

Temperatures at 850 hPa will slowly cool as this upper level low passes through . with the forecast period at this 850 hPa level starting around +3C across the region and slowly cooling to around 2C below zero. This will trend daytime temperatures cooler each day with highs around 60F to start the period trending down to the low to mid 50s by the periods end.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. A weak trough will cross Western NY this morning, producing a few patches of mid level clouds and VFR CIGS. Meanwhile an area of low stratus and IFR CIGS will continue through the morning hours across the Southern Tier, mainly east of KJHW. These low clouds will scatter out by early afternoon. Otherwise VFR and mainly clear skies will prevail for the rest of the area today through the first half of tonight.

Overnight, a front and associated widespread area of rain will move into Western NY, reaching the Genesee Valley Sunday morning. A few isolated, weak thunderstorms may also be embedded within this area of rain. CIGS/VSBY will initially be VFR as the rain arrives, then deteriorate to MVFR as the low levels saturate.

Outlook .

Sunday . MVFR with widespread showers. Chance of a few thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evening. Monday through Wednesday . VFR/MVFR with spotty showers each day.

MARINE. Southeast downslope winds will bring 15-20 knot winds to the Lake Erie shoreline this morning, then again tonight. The offshore wind direction will keep the greater wave action out near the international border. On Lake Ontario, ENE winds will increase to around 15 knots this afternoon to the west of Rochester, producing some choppy conditions. Otherwise relatively light offshore winds will continue Sunday through early next week with no Small Craft Advisory conditions anticipated.

FIRE WEATHER. A drier and warmer airmass will move back into the region today, with minimum relative humidity values dropping to 25 to 30 percent during the afternoon. South to southeast winds will gust up to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Widespread wetting rain is anticipated for late tonight through Sunday. Cooler weather with higher humidity is then expected for all of next week.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . Hitchcock NEAR TERM . Hitchcock SHORT TERM . EAJ LONG TERM . EAJ/Thomas AVIATION . Hitchcock MARINE . Hitchcock FIRE WEATHER . Hitchcock

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY	27 mi	59 min	SSE 8 G 9.9	51°F			1014 hPa	46°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY	60 mi	89 min	SSE 7 G 11	54°F			1013.2 hPa (-0.7)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY	61 mi	59 min		55°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY	20 mi	35 min	E 4	10.00 mi	A Few Clouds	46°F	42°F	86%	1014.3 hPa
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY	21 mi	35 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Fair	48°F	45°F	89%	1014.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSYR

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