Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Jordan, NY

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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 120302 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1002 PM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

SYNOPSIS. Lake effect snow east of Lake Erie will continue to taper off this evening, while a lake band continues moving slowly south off of Lake Ontario into Thursday morning before weakening and drifting back to the north. High pressure will then bring a return to dry weather later Thursday through Friday. Low pressure moving northward along the east coast will then bring rain and warmer temperatures to the region Friday night through Saturday, with rain changing back to snow Sunday as colder air moves back into the area.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/. The main Lake Erie lake effect band continues to quickly fall apart this evening. Weak banding continues over Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties this evening, but accumulations should be fairly light. With continuing snow, will leave the advisory in place through 1AM as sometimes these subtle bands are a little misleading on satellite/radar. Overall don't expect much additional accumulation however.

Meanwhile, the band over Lake Ontario continues to weaken this evening. (Note KTYX is currently inoperable, KBGM and KENX together with 1-minute GOES-E is capture the essence of the band.) Expect this band to continue in it's weakened state for several more hours without any upstream connections together with an increasing lack of moisture. Some narrow bands remain possible for a land breeze convergence boundary to develop late tonight before winds shift to the south and shear increases Thursday morning. This band may briefly meander into northern Cayuga County overnight.

Thursday, winds will back as surface high pressure passes just to our south. Lake effect snow off Lake Ontario will shrink across the lake with weakening winds, before sliding north and tapering off through early afternoon. Any additional accumulation will be modest, maybe an inch or so along and to the west of I-81. A few flurries are possible early Thursday near Buffalo on a southwest flow. Outside of lake effect snow there will be quite a bit of sunshine Thursday morning, but cloud cover will increase as mid-level moisture overspreads the region. Temperatures will remain on the cool side with highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. A 1040mb high will move off the New England coast Thursday night. A southerly flow will persist across the region through Friday with afternoon highs reaching the low 40s. Coastal high pressure will extend southwestward across coastal New England and the Mid-Atlantic during this time. Dry conditions will remain across western and north central NY through Friday.

Mid-level level ridging moves off the east coast Friday night. A deepening trough will track across the Mississippi Valley overnight while low pressure develops across the southeast U.S. and tracks north into the Mid-Atlantic region. Initially, the northern stream will develop low pressure across the Mid-West while the southern stream develops low pressure across the Gulf Coast states. As the trough tracks eastward overnight, these two systems will phase into a coastal low on Saturday. Strong moisture advection will occur as Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean moisture get wrapped up along the east coast Saturday.

As moisture moves into western NY Friday night, most places should be above freezing and rain is expected. However, a few places across the western Southern Tier may fall below freezing temperatures in the early evening and may lead to a wintry mix for a few hours. Similarly, temperatures will have a longer time to fall east of Lake Ontario prior to the onset of precipitation which may produce a period of a wintry mix. Temperatures will slowly climb overnight and into Saturday morning because of the strong warm air advection and any wintry mix should change over to rain by Saturday morning. Highs in the low to mid 40s expected Saturday.

The model consensus is for low pressure to track from central PA to northern Vermont Saturday to Saturday night. As the low passes to the east and northeast, cold air advection will move into western and north central NY. This system is moisture laden so as colder air moves into the region, snow showers are likely from west to east through Saturday night. Minor lake enhancement expected through Saturday night as lake induced instability is lacking with 850mb temperatures only falling to around -6C by Sunday morning. An inch or two of snowfall accumulation is possible mainly at higher elevations east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Sunday and Sunday night deep low pressure will push from the Lower Saint Lawrence Valley across Labrador and then out to sea . while high pressure over the Northern Plains states steadily builds east across the Great Lakes In between these two systems. a gradually weakening and drying westerly to west-northwesterly flow of colder air will persist across our region. The cold advection regime will result in morning highs in the mid to upper 30s Sunday giving way to slowly falling readings through the remainder of Sunday and Sunday night . when lows will settle into the teens across the North Country and the lower to mid 20s elsewhere Meanwhile. initially breezy to windy conditions on Sunday (worst along the eastern and southeastern shores of both lakes where winds could gust to 35-40 mph) will give way to progressively calmer conditions through Sunday night as the surface ridge builds into our region.

In terms of precipitation . even though the bulk of the synoptic precipitation will be over by the start of this period . ongoing upslope flow and deep moisture will still maintain numerous to widespread snow showers east/east-southeast of the lakes Sunday morning . with these then steadily diminishing Sunday afternoon and night as our airmass steadily dries out and inversion heights lower Similarly. much more scattered mixed rain and snow showers elsewhere on Sunday will also come to an end Sunday night. While it will indeed be breezy to windy on Sunday . have pulled the previous mention of blowing snow from the forecast as temperatures both at the surface and aloft suggest a wetter snow that will be more difficult to effectively blow around.

On Monday the surface ridge will slowly drift from New York State into New England. Apart from some dying widely scattered light snow showers/flurries southeast of Lake Ontario early on . this should result in a dry day . with partly sunny skies initially giving way to increasing clouds across western New York out ahead of the next system Meanwhile daytime highs should be a bit below average. with readings ranging from the upper 20s across the North Country to the lower to mid 30s elsewhere.

Monday night through Tuesday night the medium range guidance continues to exhibit significant discrepancies with the track of the next low pressure system. The latest GFS remains a northern outlier and tracks a deepening low directly across Lakes Erie and Ontario . which would favor a mixed precipitation event along followed by the potential for some gusty winds behind its trailing cold front . though at this point the low track appears to lie too close to our region to support a true high wind event. Meanwhile the GEM and ECMWF remain much further south with the low track and support a potential for some snow across our region . with the extent of this potential dependent upon the exact track of the low. For now have continued to favor the more realistic- looking latter camp of models . with a general chance of snow and near to slightly below average temperatures indicated for this 36-hour period.

Following the passage of this next system . a colder west to west- northwesterly flow looks to follow for Wednesday . supporting highs back in the 20s again along with a chance of snow showers east and east-southeast of the lakes.

AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. VFR conditions are expected across all TAF locations although lake effect clouds and some snow showers/flurries can be found ESE of the lakes with some MVFR - mainly CIGS. Weak lake effect processes will continue into Thursday with lake clouds, some flurries east of Lake Erie and showers east of Lake Ontario moving north with time. Some brief MVFR will be possible as these bands move to the north.

Outlook .

Thursday night . VFR. Friday . VFR. Saturday . MVFR. Rain likely. Sunday . Areas of MVFR/IFR in snow showers, especially southeast of the lakes. Monday . VFR.

MARINE. A cold airmass will continue to spread bands of lake effect snow over the southeast portion of Lake Ontario this evening before weakening. A brief period of marginal 35 kt gales will continue this evening before dropping off. Winds will quickly diminish overnight as the pressure gradient relaxes across the eastern Great Lakes.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. There will be a period of low end gale force winds this evening on Lake Ontario. The strong onshore winds, high wave action, and high lake levels will bring an increased risk of lakeshore flooding along the Lake Ontario shore at the east end of the lake. A Lakeshore Flood Warning remains in effect for Jefferson, Oswego, and northern Cayuga counties through tonight.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Lakeshore Flood Warning until 4 AM EST Thursday for NYZ005>007. Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for NYZ006. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for NYZ019-020. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for LEZ040-041. Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Thursday for LOZ044-045- 063>065. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for LOZ042- 043.



SYNOPSIS . Apffel/Hitchcock NEAR TERM . Apffel SHORT TERM . HSK LONG TERM . JJR AVIATION . Apffel MARINE . Apffel/Hitchcock TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . Hitchcock

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY	27 mi	51 min	WNW 26 G 37				1032.6 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY	60 mi	39 min	WSW 12 G 15	22°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY	61 mi	51 min		21°F			1033.3 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY

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NW14 G17

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NE6 G9

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S8 G13

S12 G15

SW12 G19

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SW12 G22

W18 G26

W25 G44

W29 G41

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W29 G37

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S15 G21

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W21 G31

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S13 G20

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SE12 G17

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SE10 G14

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SE14 G19

S13 G20

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S17 G25

S19 G29

S16 G23

S13 G23

S14 G22

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY	20 mi	45 min	W 14 G 22	9.00 mi	Light Snow	23°F	9°F	55%	1033.1 hPa
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY	21 mi	45 min	WSW 11 G 17	3.00 mi	Light Snow	22°F	12°F	66%	1033.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSYR

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)

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NW8

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W13 G21

W21 G26

W27 G35

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (0,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY

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