Thursday, March4, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Jordan, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:34AMSunset 6:00PM Thursday March 4, 2021 4:31 PM EST (21:31 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 9:40AM Illumination 64% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:202103041630;;455195 Fzus51 Kbuf 041134 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 634 Am Est Thu Mar 4 2021 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-041630- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 634 Am Est Thu Mar 4 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through late Saturday night...
Today..North winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest. Lake effect snow showers likely early, then scattered snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Friday..Northwest winds to 30 knots becoming west. Scattered flurries in the morning, then a chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 5 to 9 feet building to 8 to 11 feet. Waves occasionally around 14 feet.
Friday night..Northwest winds to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 25 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 7 to 11 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 14 feet.
Saturday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. A chance of snow showers during the day. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers Monday night. Waves 2 feet or less. The water temperature off rochester is 35 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Jordan, NY
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location: 43.07, -76.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 041828 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 128 PM EST Thu Mar 4 2021

SYNOPSIS. Temperatures will now remain firmly at below normal levels through the upcoming weekend . as several cold frontal passages will continually reinforce a late winter airmass. The cold will be accompanied by some nuisance lake snows . but accumulations will be insignificant. A major warm up is then expected next week with temperatures in the 50s and 60s by mid week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. Subsidence and drier air mixing to the sfc resulting in clearing from the north for the remainder of the afternoon. Temps in the teens (North Country) to the 20s in the west.

Uneventful tonight for most areas . although passing shortwave will encourage an increase in clouds for Eastern Lake Ontario region along with some flurries . stray light snow shower for Lewis county. Also some flurries/very light snow showers possible southeast of both lakes. Mins will range from single digits in the North country to teens elsewhere. These will be nearly 10 deg f below normal.

Most of Friday to be dry . but weak lift ahead of reinforcing cold front will combine with deepening moisture from the northeast to allow for some light snow showers by the end of the day. Temps will struggle to freezing in the far west . but most areas will not make it out of the 20s.

Arctic front to sag through the forecast area Friday night with a great coverage of snow showers.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Aloft, a positively tilted trough over the Northeast Saturday morning will eventually push east by Monday, where upper level riding across the Mid-West will work its way into the area. With the trough overhead, cold air at 850mb will remain in the mid negative teens Celsius for the weekend. This will be cold enough to continue to support lake effect snow showers south and southeast of both Lakes Erie and Ontario, but primarily south of Lake Ontario. Overall, an inch or two will be possible this weekend.

The aforementioned ridging to the west of the trough will make its way into the central Great Lakes Sunday afternoon, which will shift its associated surface high over the region. This will act to diminish any lingering lake effect by Sunday afternoon. Then with the surface high overhead, a period of dry weather can be expected through the start of the new work week.

The below normal temperatures will continue Saturday and Sunday with highs reaching the mid to upper 20s across most locations. Some places along the lower terrain will reach 30, while the higher elevations east of Lake Ontario will remain cool with highs in the low 20s. This cool streak will break by Monday, when the area will be influenced by warm air advection due to the high pressure. Temperatures will warm up to normal with highs in the 30s east of Lake Ontario and low to mid 40s elsewhere.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The warm and dry trend continues Monday night through Wednesday, though a weak warm front will cross the region Monday night into Tuesday morning. With the passage of the front a few rain or snow showers are possible for the area east of Lake Ontario. Otherwise, dry weather will prevail.

Meanwhile aloft, a trough across western Canada will push the ridge axis east. The trough to the west of the area will let a shortwave pass through its base and cause its associated surface low to intensify across the western Great Lakes Wednesday. As the surface low continues on its northeastward track, it will drag its associated frontal features across the region late Wednesday night and Thursday, which will cause chances for rain showers to increase starting Wednesday night.

The weak warm frontal passage Monday night into Tuesday will initiate a warm trend for the remainder of the period. High temperatures will start off in the 40s Tuesday, and could reach near 60 across the warmer locations in the Genesee Valley Wednesday.

With the higher terrain still blanketed by some sort of snowpack and the warm ambient temperatures, the snowpack will continue to ripen and melt. This may may cause some flooding and/or ice jam flooding, though this is mainly the case for the WNY area. The flooding potential will continue to be monitored as the warm up approaches. For now will continue to carry a mention for this in the HWO product.

AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. There will be lingering MVFR conditions in scattered snow showers across the Southern Tier through about 20z . otherwise VFR weather will be in place through tonight Winds will remain gusty though. reaching 25 to 30 knots at times.

Friday will feature fair VFR weather with continued wind gusts to 30 knots.

Outlook .

Friday night . MVFR conditions with snow showers likely. Saturday . VFR to MVFR in scattered snow showers. Sunday . Mainly VFR weather with just a chance of snow showers. Monday and Tuesday . VFR.

MARINE. Northwest winds will increase today, especially on Lake Ontario. Winds and waves will meet Small Craft Advisory criteria with moderate to strong northwest winds then continuing tonight through Saturday. The strongest winds will occur Friday, when sustained winds will reach 30 knots on Lake Ontario. Winds will be somewhat lower on Lake Erie today and tonight, with Small Craft Advisory conditions developing Friday.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for LOZ042>044. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for LOZ045. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for LOZ030.



SYNOPSIS . RSH NEAR TERM . RSH SHORT TERM . EAJ/Thomas LONG TERM . EAJ AVIATION . RSH MARINE . Hitchcock


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 27 mi43 min WNW 14 G 18 25°F 1017 hPa10°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 60 mi31 min NW 20 G 25 25°F 1019 hPa (+0.4)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 61 mi43 min 27°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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W8
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W16
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W33
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W18
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W16
G21

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY20 mi37 minNW 14 G 2210.00 miPartly Cloudy26°F10°F51%1016.1 hPa
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY21 mi37 minNNW 12 G 2210.00 miA Few Clouds25°F8°F48%1017.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSYR

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN7NW6W4W4W5W7W6W9NW14NW9NW9N9NW10NW12NW9NW10NW13NW8N12
G20
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1 day agoW6W6S6SE5SE5E5E4E4NE3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW15W10W10W8NW8NW5W6NW7
2 days agoW16
G31
W22
G29
W20
G30
W23
G42
NW22
G34
NW24
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NW26
G39
W17
G28
W18
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NW15
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G25
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W16
G27
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NW13W15W14
G21
NW12W16W12W14

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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