Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Jordan, NY

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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 091840 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 240 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

SYNOPSIS. An area of high pressure over the Ohio Valley this afternoon will drift to the Eastern Seaboard by Monday, which will provide mainly dry conditions through the start of the new work week. Although, a few weak upper level disturbances crossing the region may bring a few showers from time to time, especially across the Saint Lawrence Valley and the North Country. A weak cold front will then cross the region on Tuesday, bringing the next chance for more widespread showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise, temperatures will remain above normal through the upcoming week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/. An area of surface high pressure will reside across the Ohio Valley this afternoon, providing mainly dry weather. However a notable exception will be the Saint Lawrence Valley and North Country as an upper level trough will move across this region. Mesoscale guidance suggests that this is likely to produce some showers and thunderstorms roughly between 4-8 p.m.

Due to the approaching trough, winds will remain elevated this afternoon with gusts of 20-30 mph northeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario. Otherwise, temperatures will nudge upward another degree or two today, with highs in the low to mid 80s across the majority of the area.

A few showers/isolated storms may linger east of Lake Ontario through late this evening as the upper level trough exits east of the area. The next weak shortwave will cross the area during the second half of the night through the first half of Monday, renewing the chance for a few more showers and storms from the Niagara Frontier east and northeast to the eastern Lake Ontario region as this feature interacts with a subtle weak warm front lingering from central Lake Ontario into Central NY. Shower activity will then drift east throughout Monday afternoon. Additionally to Monday afternoon, a few more spotty showers and storms may develop along and inland of the lake breeze boundaries, though a majority of the area will remain dry.

Otherwise, southwesterly flow will promote warmer temperatures for the remainder of the period. Low temperatures tonight will be much warmer than previous nights, as readings will likely only fall back into the mid and upper 60s across the bulk of the area, with lower 70s found across the Lake Plains. For Monday, highs will climb up into the upper 80s to around 90, with the warmest temperatures occuring inland away from any lake influences across the Genesee Valley and North Central NY. In addition to the warmer temperatures, dewpoints will climb up to the upper 60s and near 70, meaning heat indices will rise up into the low 90s. While just remaining under heat advisory criteria, it will overall be a warm day for the places east of the Genesee Valley to southern Oswego County.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Latest model guidance suggests an MCS will likely track from eastern Michigan across Ohio Monday night, with showers and storms associated with this missing our area to the southwest. This will leave our area dry overnight Monday, with any isolated diurnal showers dissipating quickly Monday evening. A very warm/muggy airmass and a light southwest breeze will not allow temperatures to fall much, with lows in the lower 70s on the lake plains and mid 60s across the interior Southern Tier and Lewis County.

Tuesday and Tuesday night a weak mid level trough and associated cold front will approach the area. Tuesday will start off dry, with scattered showers and storms developing in the afternoon along lake breeze boundaries and a pre-frontal trough. The scattered showers and storms will continue Tuesday night as the mid level trough and a cold front cross the area. PWAT values climb to around 1.75 inches, so any storms will be capable of very heavy downpours. Relatively weak shear and poor mid level lapse rates will limit the severe weather risk.

Tuesday will be another very warm and humid day, with highs in the mid 80s across Western NY and around 90 from the Genesee Valley eastward at lower elevations. The heat index may approach 95 from the Genesee Valley to the western Finger Lakes and Oswego County.

The frontal boundary will stall just southeast of the region on Wednesday, with surface high pressure building across the Great Lakes region. A lingering shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out near the PA border, but the rest of the area will be dry. The air mass will be cooler and notably less humid with post-frontal dew points around 60.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. Model consensus stalls a weak frontal boundary just to our south Wednesday night through Friday. The vast majority of the area will be dry, however periodic showers cannot be ruled out across the Southern Tier. By Saturday a weak mid-level trough will approach the region, and this combined with deeper moisture and daytime instability may produce a shower or thunderstorm.

Temperatures will continue to run above average throughout the period. Expect highs in the mid 80s at lower elevations each day, with lows in the 60s.

AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Some low VFR decks east of Lake Ontario this afternoon, where a few showers and storms will be possible as well this afternoon/evening. Otherwise, it will be mainly dry with VFR flight conditions area wide through this evening. Additionally, southwest winds are gusting up to 20-25 knots northeast of the lakes this afternoon.

Heading into the second half of tonight, there will be a renewed chance for a few more showers and storms from the Niagara Frontier east to central and northern NY. Other than some continued low VFR decks at KART and MVFR ceilings developing across the eastern portions of Lake Ontario, VFR flight conditions expected through the overnight into Monday morning.

Outlook .

Monday . Mainly VFR. A small chance of showers. Tuesday . Showers and thunderstorms likely. Brief MVFR/IFR possible. Wednesday and Friday . Mainly VFR with an afternoon/evening shower or thunderstorm possible.

MARINE. A tightening pressure gradient has allowed southwest winds to increase on both lakes this afternoon ahead of a weak upper level trough, which will produce choppy conditions on Lake Erie. Winds will be a bit lighter on Lake Ontario, but still enough to generate some chop, especially across the western half of the lake.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . EAJ/JM NEAR TERM . Apffel/EAJ/JM SHORT TERM . Apffel LONG TERM . Apffel AVIATION . Apffel/EAJ/JM MARINE . EAJ/JM

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY	27 mi	47 min	W 8.9 G 12	83°F			1016.5 hPa	62°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY	60 mi	65 min	WSW 12 G 18	84°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY	61 mi	47 min		85°F			1016.3 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY	20 mi	71 min	WSW 8	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	84°F	57°F	41%	1016.7 hPa
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY	21 mi	71 min	SSW 8	10.00 mi	Overcast	84°F	60°F	44%	1016.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSYR

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (16,3,4,5)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY

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