Sunday, August9, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Jordan, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:05AMSunset 8:18PM Sunday August 9, 2020 4:05 PM EDT (20:05 UTC) Moonrise 10:22PMMoonset 10:52AM Illumination 67% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:202008100315;;185484 Fzus51 Kbuf 091744 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 144 Pm Edt Sun Aug 9 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-100315- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 144 Pm Edt Sun Aug 9 2020
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming west. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday night..South winds 10 knots or less. Mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..South winds 10 knots or less becoming west. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 70 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Jordan, NY
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location: 43.07, -76.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 091840 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 240 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

SYNOPSIS. An area of high pressure over the Ohio Valley this afternoon will drift to the Eastern Seaboard by Monday, which will provide mainly dry conditions through the start of the new work week. Although, a few weak upper level disturbances crossing the region may bring a few showers from time to time, especially across the Saint Lawrence Valley and the North Country. A weak cold front will then cross the region on Tuesday, bringing the next chance for more widespread showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise, temperatures will remain above normal through the upcoming week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/. An area of surface high pressure will reside across the Ohio Valley this afternoon, providing mainly dry weather. However a notable exception will be the Saint Lawrence Valley and North Country as an upper level trough will move across this region. Mesoscale guidance suggests that this is likely to produce some showers and thunderstorms roughly between 4-8 p.m.

Due to the approaching trough, winds will remain elevated this afternoon with gusts of 20-30 mph northeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario. Otherwise, temperatures will nudge upward another degree or two today, with highs in the low to mid 80s across the majority of the area.

A few showers/isolated storms may linger east of Lake Ontario through late this evening as the upper level trough exits east of the area. The next weak shortwave will cross the area during the second half of the night through the first half of Monday, renewing the chance for a few more showers and storms from the Niagara Frontier east and northeast to the eastern Lake Ontario region as this feature interacts with a subtle weak warm front lingering from central Lake Ontario into Central NY. Shower activity will then drift east throughout Monday afternoon. Additionally to Monday afternoon, a few more spotty showers and storms may develop along and inland of the lake breeze boundaries, though a majority of the area will remain dry.

Otherwise, southwesterly flow will promote warmer temperatures for the remainder of the period. Low temperatures tonight will be much warmer than previous nights, as readings will likely only fall back into the mid and upper 60s across the bulk of the area, with lower 70s found across the Lake Plains. For Monday, highs will climb up into the upper 80s to around 90, with the warmest temperatures occuring inland away from any lake influences across the Genesee Valley and North Central NY. In addition to the warmer temperatures, dewpoints will climb up to the upper 60s and near 70, meaning heat indices will rise up into the low 90s. While just remaining under heat advisory criteria, it will overall be a warm day for the places east of the Genesee Valley to southern Oswego County.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Latest model guidance suggests an MCS will likely track from eastern Michigan across Ohio Monday night, with showers and storms associated with this missing our area to the southwest. This will leave our area dry overnight Monday, with any isolated diurnal showers dissipating quickly Monday evening. A very warm/muggy airmass and a light southwest breeze will not allow temperatures to fall much, with lows in the lower 70s on the lake plains and mid 60s across the interior Southern Tier and Lewis County.

Tuesday and Tuesday night a weak mid level trough and associated cold front will approach the area. Tuesday will start off dry, with scattered showers and storms developing in the afternoon along lake breeze boundaries and a pre-frontal trough. The scattered showers and storms will continue Tuesday night as the mid level trough and a cold front cross the area. PWAT values climb to around 1.75 inches, so any storms will be capable of very heavy downpours. Relatively weak shear and poor mid level lapse rates will limit the severe weather risk.

Tuesday will be another very warm and humid day, with highs in the mid 80s across Western NY and around 90 from the Genesee Valley eastward at lower elevations. The heat index may approach 95 from the Genesee Valley to the western Finger Lakes and Oswego County.

The frontal boundary will stall just southeast of the region on Wednesday, with surface high pressure building across the Great Lakes region. A lingering shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out near the PA border, but the rest of the area will be dry. The air mass will be cooler and notably less humid with post-frontal dew points around 60.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. Model consensus stalls a weak frontal boundary just to our south Wednesday night through Friday. The vast majority of the area will be dry, however periodic showers cannot be ruled out across the Southern Tier. By Saturday a weak mid-level trough will approach the region, and this combined with deeper moisture and daytime instability may produce a shower or thunderstorm.

Temperatures will continue to run above average throughout the period. Expect highs in the mid 80s at lower elevations each day, with lows in the 60s.

AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Some low VFR decks east of Lake Ontario this afternoon, where a few showers and storms will be possible as well this afternoon/evening. Otherwise, it will be mainly dry with VFR flight conditions area wide through this evening. Additionally, southwest winds are gusting up to 20-25 knots northeast of the lakes this afternoon.

Heading into the second half of tonight, there will be a renewed chance for a few more showers and storms from the Niagara Frontier east to central and northern NY. Other than some continued low VFR decks at KART and MVFR ceilings developing across the eastern portions of Lake Ontario, VFR flight conditions expected through the overnight into Monday morning.

Outlook .

Monday . Mainly VFR. A small chance of showers. Tuesday . Showers and thunderstorms likely. Brief MVFR/IFR possible. Wednesday and Friday . Mainly VFR with an afternoon/evening shower or thunderstorm possible.

MARINE. A tightening pressure gradient has allowed southwest winds to increase on both lakes this afternoon ahead of a weak upper level trough, which will produce choppy conditions on Lake Erie. Winds will be a bit lighter on Lake Ontario, but still enough to generate some chop, especially across the western half of the lake.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . EAJ/JM NEAR TERM . Apffel/EAJ/JM SHORT TERM . Apffel LONG TERM . Apffel AVIATION . Apffel/EAJ/JM MARINE . EAJ/JM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 27 mi47 min W 8.9 G 12 83°F 1016.5 hPa62°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 60 mi65 min WSW 12 G 18 84°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 61 mi47 min 85°F 1016.3 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY20 mi71 minWSW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy84°F57°F41%1016.7 hPa
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY21 mi71 minSSW 810.00 miOvercast84°F60°F44%1016.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSYR

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW9W6NW76N8NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3E3CalmSW9S95W8W8
1 day agoNE6NE6NE7E6E4NE3E3SE3CalmE3CalmE4CalmE3E3E3CalmSE33CalmCalmCalmSW7Calm
2 days agoN4NE4E3N9N6N4CalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmN3CalmE3E4E5SE3CalmE8CalmNE5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.