Sunday, August25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Spring Lake, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 8:34PM Sunday August 25, 2019 7:05 PM EDT (23:05 UTC) Moonrise 12:31AMMoonset 3:57PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ846 Holland To Grand Haven Mi- 405 Pm Edt Sun Aug 25 2019
Through early evening..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Rain showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Rain showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet after midnight.
Tuesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Tuesday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 20 to 25 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Thursday..West winds 15 to 20 knots backing southwest late in the day. Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..West winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
LMZ846 Expires:201908260800;;199698 FZUS53 KGRR 252005 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 405 PM EDT Sun Aug 25 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ846-260800-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Spring Lake, MI
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location: 43.07, -86.19     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 251923
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
323 pm edt Sun aug 25 2019
latest update...

synopsis discussion marine

Synopsis
Issued at 323 pm edt Sun aug 25 2019
- showers and a few thunderstorms Monday
- 2 inches of rain possible in spots Tuesday morning
- a final shot of precipitation possible Wednesday and breezy

Discussion (this evening through next Sunday)
issued at 323 pm edt Sun aug 25 2019
-- showers and a few thunderstorms Monday --
models remain consistent with timing showers and thunderstorms into
the area after sunrise Monday and spreading northeast during the
day. Thunderstorms shouldn't be widespread but they are a concern.

Forecast reasoning: instability doesn't look overly impressive and
there is much dry air to overcome. Still, there is a potent upper
low over the southern plains that will lift north and a strong upper
pv anomaly crossing montana that will provide plenty of dynamic lift
and should induce a moisture laden southeasterly low level jet
during the day Monday. The low-level shear is a little troubling in
terms of quick spinups that have a non-zero chance of occurring with
the right type of outflow boundary interaction.

-- 2 inches of rain possible in spots Tuesday morning --
chances are increasing for brief but intense rainfall Tuesday
morning with local amounts exceeding 2 inches in spots. This could
impact the morning commute and nuisance flooding will also be
possible. The best guess for location is currently from the muskegon
area northeastward. However, given the localized nature of the
precipitation, we are far from certain exactly where this would
occur.

Forecast reasoning: focus for rain will be associated with a cold
front and a narrow unseasonably moist plume of moisture ahead of the
front. Deterministic models show a sharp digging upper trough with
attendant strong mid-level frontogenesis resulting from compression
and rotation of the thermal gradient. Precipitation efficiency will
be boosted by high precipitable water values. Rain rates could be
impressive in spots, with 2 inches an hour or more not out of the
question. Fortunately durations at any given location should be
curtailed by the expected steady progression of the front.

-- a final shot of precipitation possible Wednesday and breezy --
we included a slight chance of rain showers mainly north of muskegon
and near the lakeshore. Timing could be in the morning or in the
afternoon. Rainfall amounts should be light and wind should be quick
to diminish later in the day.

Forecast reasoning: a distinct upper potential vorticity lobe will
sweep east across lower michigan at the base of a sharp upper low.

Given the stacked nature of this system, 850 mb temperatures will be
cool, especially farther north, and marginally favorable for lake
enhanced rain. There is some minor disagreement among models
regarding timing of the lobe. What's more certain is the upper low
exiting the area later in the day to be replaced by dry northwest
flow aloft and a loosening surface pressure gradient.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon)
issued at 146 pm edt Sun aug 25 2019
no changes to previous forecast, high certainty forVFR at all
terminals through 06z, although may see occasional ceilings
around 4000 ft agl this afternoon at jxn and lan where we see a
greater concentration of daytime cumulus clouds.

Precipitation is expected to impact most terminals after 12z
Monday when ceilings at or below 3000 ft agl will become more
prevalent.

Marine
Issued at 323 pm edt Sun aug 25 2019
we are increasingly concerned about wind and waves on Wednesday,
which will mark a full day of elevated wind and waves beginning
Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms combined with cool waters may
limit beach activity Tuesday, but drier conditions and recovering
water temperatures with strong onshore winds Wednesday may be a
different story. As noted before, a small craft advisory will likely
beginning early Tuesday, but will let subsequent shifts hammer out
the details.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... None.

Synopsis... Tjt
discussion... Tjt
aviation... Tjt
marine... Tjt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45161 12 mi66 min 69°F1 ft1017.9 hPa (-2.2)
45029 13 mi26 min NE 9.7 G 16 73°F 69°F1 ft1017.1 hPa57°F
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 13 mi26 min SE 8.9 G 14 75°F 1017.2 hPa56°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 21 mi54 min E 9.9 G 16 75°F 1017.2 hPa55°F
45168 47 mi26 min E 9.7 G 12 67°F 56°F1 ft1017.2 hPa50°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 47 mi36 min ESE 8.9 G 12 75°F
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 62 mi54 min ESE 6 G 8.9 75°F 55°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Muskegon, Muskegon County Airport, MI9 mi71 minE 12 G 1910.00 miMostly Cloudy78°F54°F43%1018.1 hPa
Holland - West Michigan Regional Airport, MI23 mi73 minSE 10 G 1910.00 miFair77°F55°F48%1018 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMKG

Wind History from MKG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW5W6CalmCalm----E6------E3--E3E6E8SE9SE10SE10E12E11SE12
G19
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1 day agoNE7NE3NW7N7--NE6--NE3NE5--E4E3E4E4E5E8E10E7NE8
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2 days agoN13N7N9------N5--E4----N6NE5N7--NE5NE8N9N106
G14
NE8NE6E6E8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.