Sunrise 6:30 AM   Sunset 8:52 PM Moonrise 4:11 AM   Moonset 5:07 PM

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LMZ846 Holland To Grand Haven Mi- 1105 Am Edt Sun May 5 2024
Rest of today - Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Tonight - North winds 15 to 25 knots veering east 10 to 20 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Monday - Southeast winds 10 to 20 knots becoming northeast around 10 knots late in the day. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot. Monday night - East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast 15 to 25 knots after midnight. Mostly clear with a slight chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Tuesday - Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots veering south 15 to 20 knots late in the day. Rain showers and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Wednesday - West winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny with a chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Thursday - Northeast winds around 20 knots backing north late in the day. Partly Sunny with a chance of rain showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.

LMZ800
No data

FXUS63 KGRR 051359 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 959 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and mild through early Tuesday

- Frequent chances for Rain Tuesday through next weekend

UPDATE
Issued at 953 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Latest visible imagery shows cloud cover decreasing in NNW flow, but it's going to take several more hours before we see much sunshine, especially in the southeast cwa. NamNest has a better handle on cloud cover than the GFS and shows more in the way of diurnal cu and so we'll follow that guidance. We'll also trim our highs by a degree or so too.

Any drizzle occuring over Mid Michigan will be short lived should be done by noon as that's when lift in the cloud layer decreases.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 327 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

- Dry and mild through early Tuesday

We continue to see the line of showers and storms from earlier steadily lose their steam as they progress to the east early this morning. They have lost just about any kind of diurnal instability they had earlier, and the outflow from the line raced out ahead of the actual showers and storms. In addition, the already weak support aloft with the weak short wave is gradually diminishing with the short wave weakening.

The sfc front as of 07z/3 am EDT has made it roughly to the U.S.-131 corridor. Even with the widespread rain diminishing and moving east, there remains a small chance of a pop up shower until this front moves through. The front should be east of our area over the next 2- 3 hours, which will then end the rain chances.

High pressure will build in over the area through early tonight, and will slip east of the area on Monday. We will see the atmosphere dry out and winds diminish as it moves overhead. Winds will then pick up from the East on Monday on the SW flank of the ridge. Temperatures will be a bit cooler today by around 10 degrees behind the front, but will still be around or just barely above average in the mid to upper 60s. We will then see some recovery on Monday as temps aloft warm a bit with return flow taking place.

- Frequent chances for Rain Tuesday through next weekend

AN upper low across the northern Rockies on Tuesday will merge with a northern stream longwave trough across the Great Lakes by the end of the week. The persistent troughing will result in chances for showers much of the week into next weekend.

The best chance for rain will be on Tuesday afternoon as an occluded front moves through and again on Wednesday night and Thursday in an area of frontogenesis north of a low pressure center tracking across southern Lower Michigan,

A cool Canadian airmass moves in for the end of the week and we will have to watch for frost potential if skies clear out Friday night.
The upper troughing could result in lapse rates steep enough to bring some diurnally driven showers Friday and Saturday afternoons.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
Issued at 728 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

IFR conditions early this morning with low clouds should improve to MVFR as the stratus will become thin then start to break up in the afternoon with conditions going from MVFR after 15Z to VFR by 18 to 20Z. Winds will be northwest around 10 knots.

MARINE
Issued at 327 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

We will see somewhat gusty winds this morning and again this afternoon. Right now, it seems that conditions will remain just shy of Small Craft Advisory criteria.

The winds this morning are in the immediate wake of the cold front with cooler air filtering in. The winds this afternoon will be the scenario where the ridge builds in, and combines with the daytime land/lake pressure difference to increase the winds a bit. Winds will get up to about 20 knots and waves will likely be 2 to 3 feet.
We will continue to monitor for the possibility of needing to issue a SCA.

It looks like we should generally see relatively quiet conditions out on the lake, with most of the next few days staying under SCA criteria. The only exception to this is Monday night into Tuesday ahead of the next system moving through the area.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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