Wednesday, August21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Niagara Falls, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:27AMSunset 8:11PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 8:43 AM EDT (12:43 UTC) Moonrise 10:17PMMoonset 11:11AM Illumination 67% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 705 Pm Edt Tue Aug 20 2019
Tonight..South winds 10 knots or less. Showers and Thunderstorms likely after midnight.
Wednesday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms overnight.
Thursday..Northwest winds around 10 knots becoming west. Mostly Sunny.
Thursday night..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming north. Partly cloudy.
Friday..North winds 10 knots or less. Becoming mainly clear.
Saturday..Northeast winds less than 10 knots becoming southeast. Mainly clear.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Mainly clear. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off buffalo is 74 degrees.
LEZ020 Expires:201908210330;;953382 FZUS51 KBUF 202305 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 705 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ020-210330-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Niagara Falls, NY
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location: 43.09, -79.01     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 211103
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
703 am edt Wed aug 21 2019

Synopsis
Warm and humid conditions will persist across the region through
today. An area of showers and storms will push through the area this
morning followed by another round of scattered showers and storms
ahead of a strong cold front this afternoon and evening, some of
which could contain some gusty winds and heavy rain. A prolonged
stretch of beautiful weather including cooler and less humid
conditions will then set in from Thursday through the upcoming
weekend.

Near term through tonight
Radar imagery showing a large area of showers and embedded
thunderstorms stretching from western lake ontario southward to
northwestern pa. These showers will move across western ny over the
next couple of hours, then progress eastward across the
remainder of the region through late this morning. With pwats
approaching 2" just ahead of this system, some of these showers and
thunderstorms will produce heavy rain with some isolated areas of
flash flooding. Frequent lightning can also be expected with the
stronger storms.

The airmass in advance of this feature will be relatively
unstable. While the storms will likely produce locally heavy
rain (pwat values approaching 2") and frequent lightning, still
not anticipating severe weather.

Subsidence on the back side of this morning's shortwave should
provide a few hours of dry time in many areas from late morning
through early afternoon. Scattered storms will then re-develop along
and inland of the lake breeze boundaries by mid afternoon. Meanwhile
increasing southwest flow off the lakes will result in stable lake
shadows, which may keep areas near buffalo and watertown mainly dry
for the bulk of the afternoon. Renewed convection along the lake
breeze boundary will feed off an increasingly unstable airmass (cape
values of 500-1000 j kg). This will support likely pops over the
eastern lake ontario region this afternoon, with chance pops from
the finger lakes west. The best chance for any severe weather will
be from the finger lakes northeastward to the eastern lake ontario
region. That said, while this convection could include some storms
with gusty winds for which the storm prediction center has areas
from the finger lakes east in a marginal risk, heavy rain will be
the main threat as sufficient shear for organized bowing line
segments will be meager.

By late afternoon early evening, a strong cold front will be
approaching from southern ontario. Increased convergence along and
ahead of this boundary will then combine with a 30-35kt low level
jet to possibly bring one final round of scattered showers isolated
storms through this evening.

It will once again be warm and humid. High temps will be in the
upper 70s to the mid 80s for most areas, while surface dewpoints
will climb to around 70.

Tonight, any leftover showers ahead of a strong cold front crossing
the area will quickly taper off from NW to SE through the early
overnight. It will be a much cooler and drier night, with lows
dropping back into the upper 50s to low 60s.

Short term Thursday through Saturday night
Upper level trough that drops across lower great lakes and northeast
conus late this week will still be mainly north and west of the
region on Thursday. Though primary cold front sweeps across by late
Wednesday night, strongest cold air advection will lag the fropa,
not really arriving until Friday. Strong upper jet over 110 kts on
leading side of upper trough and another weaker shortwave area of
deeper moisture may trigger isolated showers over southern tier
during peak heating Thursday afternoon, but otherwise dry weather
should prevail though skies will be partly to mostly cloudy. High
temperatures will settle into the low to mid 70s, coolest in the
southern tier and to east of lake ontario. Most clouds will fade on
Thursday night though some clouds will persist closer to eastern
lake ontario. With the clearing skies and temperatures falling into
into the upper 40s at the coolest, could be valley fog over the
southern tier.

Cold air advection continues into Friday with h85 temps down to +7c
or +8c by daybreak Friday. NW flow across the much warmer temps of
lake ontario (averaging 21c at mid lake) will result in a
conditionally unstable airmass for lake effect processes. Other than
a thin moist layer around 800mb 5-6kft, soundings look dry. There
could be just enough over-water instability and low-level
convergence for a few showers downstream of southeast lake ontario.

Any showers, if they occur, will become disrupted and disorganized
by late Friday morning due to daytime heating and strong subsidence.

Another day of expanding stratocu clouds with partly to mostly
cloudy skies by afternoon. High temps will be in the lower 70s most
locations. After clouds clear out Friday evening, clearing skies and
cool temps could lead to another night with some valley fog in the
southern tier.

On Saturday, high pressure will be firmly in control of weather
across the region. Though ECMWF still looks overdone with depiction
of closed off upper low sinking across the mid atlantic, think a
weaker secondary shortwave dropping across southern quebec and new
england could lead to some isolated showers east of lake ontario.

Probably will just see an enhancement to clouds more than anything
else, especially with upslope northerly flow developing by that
time. High temps on Saturday begin to tick upward, mainly in the mid
70s. Low temps on Saturday night stay seasonably cool with readings
in the 50s across the board.

Long term Sunday through Tuesday
Sunday features dry weather as high pressure persists. The more
sluggish ECMWF would result in more clouds, but still thinking it is
overplaying the amount of upper level troughing. Temps will rebound
further with readings into the
medium range guidance begins to diverge with respect to how quickly
the ridge slides further east and out to sea... And gives way to the
next trough and associated moisture approaching from the west. The
gfs remains fastest with this overall scenario and brings increasing
chances for convection into our region... While the ECMWF lies on the
other side of the guidance envelope and keeps the ridge intact and
our region totally dry through Tuesday. Given continuity and a
general distrust for the GFS this far out... Will lean toward the
latter scenario and keep dry weather in place through Monday... With
only very low-end chances for convection returning on Tuesday.

Otherwise... The combination of general airmass modification and warm
air advection will lead to a slow but steady day-to-day warming
trend through this period... With highs in the lower to mid 70s on
Saturday climbing back to the upper 70s and lower 80s by Monday.

Aviation 11z Wednesday through Sunday
An upper level disturbance will move east across the region this
morning. This system will bring showers and thunderstorms to western
ny through early this morning, then spread east across the rest of
the area through mid morning. Areas of MVFR CIGS will be prevalent
across the interior western southern tier this morning. Otherwise
mainlyVFR will prevail for the rest of the area, with any ifr MVFR
(mainly vsbys) limited to in and near thunderstorms.

The first batch of showers and storms will mostly end from west to
east by late this morning as the upper level disturbance moves into
eastern ny. Renewed scattered convection will develop in the
afternoon along and inland of the lake breeze boundaries. Meanwhile
southwest flow off the lakes will allow stable lake shadows to form,
keeping areas near kbuf and kart mainly dry in the afternoon.VFR
will prevail from late morning through the late evening, with any
ifr MVFR limited to in and near thunderstorms.

Tonight, any leftover showers ahead of a strong cold front crossing
the area will quickly taper off from NW to SE through the early
overnight. Aside from areas of ifr MVFR CIGS developing across the
inland southern tier and higher terrain east of lake ontario during
the second half of the night, the remainder of the area should
remainVFR.

Outlook...

Thursday through Sunday... MainlyVFR with nothing more than southern
tier valley fog producing local MVFR ifr conditions each morning.

Marine
A southwesterly flow will increase today ahead of a cold front with
waves building to 2-4 feet on lake erie during the midday and
afternoon. A cold front will swing across the lower lakes this
evening and early overnight, with waves and winds increasing within
the cold air advection environment.

Wnw winds over the shorter fetch of lake erie will build waves 2-3
feet tonight and Thursday, while a longer fetch and slightly
stronger wind flow over lake ontario will bring waves up to 5 feet
or greater on the southern lake ontario shoreline. Small craft
advisories have been issued.

Tides coastal flooding
A strong cold front will cross the lower great lakes this evening.

Strengthening west to northwesterlies in the wake of the front will
increase wave action and combine with already high lake levels to
produce significant shoreline erosion and flooding late tonight
through late Thursday afternoon. A lakeshore flood warning has been
issued for wayne, northern cayuga and oswego counties. Since winds
will be more westerly and not as much onshore, the lakeshore flood
watch was dropped for niagara, orleans and monroe counties.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Lakeshore flood warning from 5 am to 5 pm edt Thursday for
nyz004>006.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 2 am to 8 pm edt Thursday for loz043-
044.

Small craft advisory from 2 am to 2 pm edt Thursday for
loz042.

Small craft advisory from 8 am to 8 pm edt Thursday for
loz045.

Synopsis... Jm
near term... Jm
short term... Jla
long term... Jla jjr
aviation... Jm
marine... Hitchcock jla
tides coastal flooding... Rsh jla


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 1 mi62 min 68°F 1012.8 hPa
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 16 mi56 min SE 4.1 G 6 68°F 77°F1013.2 hPa59°F
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 23 mi44 min S 5.1 G 8.9 68°F 1012.5 hPa (-0.7)
45142 - Port Colborne 28 mi104 min SE 7.8 G 12 70°F 75°F1 ft1012.3 hPa (-0.4)
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 28 mi62 min 67°F 1012.9 hPa
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 45 mi44 min S 4.1 G 6 69°F 1013 hPa (-0.5)
45159 - NW Lake Ontario Ajax 47 mi104 min W 7.8 G 7.8 71°F 72°F1 ft1011.5 hPa (+0.6)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY3 mi1.8 hrsS 510.00 miOvercast66°F63°F90%1011.5 hPa
Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport, NY18 mi1.8 hrsS 910.00 miLight Rain67°F64°F91%1012.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KIAG

Wind History from IAG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE3SE4SE6S8S8S106W11SW7----SW6SW5S4Calm--SE4------SE17
G24
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1 day agoW8W10W9--W7W10SW8W8--SW10SW15SW8W8W8W6----------CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoSE3----S7S9
G15
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SW16SW10SW9S6S8S7--S9--SW7----W7W9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.