Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Niagara Falls, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Much cooler today, with scattered showers ahead of a gradual warm up through the remainder of the week.

DISCUSSION
Key Message 1...Much cooler today, with scattered showers ahead of a gradual warm up through the remainder of the week.

A strong cold front will move across the eastern Great Lakes region this morning. Elevated instability and deep moisture will support showers and a few thunderstorms along the front. Cold air advection within a westerly flow will bring an abrupt airmass change to the region causing 850mb temperatures will fall to +6C by this afternoon and limit high temperatures to the 60s to low 70s. Based on past soundings at KBUF, +6C at 850mb is below the 10th percentile and near the daily min for this time of year. Steepening low level lapse rates under an upper level trough will support widely scattered showers with lake enhancement focusing showers and lake clouds east- southeast of the Lakes today.

High pressure will build in tonight and reside across the region through Friday bringing dry weather and a gradual warming trend through the end of the week.

AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A much cooler airmass will filter into the region today. A mix of low end VFR and MVFR ceilings are expected today. Scattered showers will focus southeast of the Lakes through this evening.
High pressure moves into the region tonight and widespread VFR is expected. The only exception is the potential for patchy fog late tonight, however confidence is low.

Outlook...

Thursday through Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance for showers/thunderstorms in the afternoon.

MARINE
West-northwest winds will increase on the Lakes behind a cold front this morning. Small Craft conditions are expected on Lake Ontario through tonight. Winds and waves are weakening on Lake Erie this morning, however a moderate chop will continue on the waters today. A cool airmass within westerly flow will support scattered showers with a slight chance of waterspouts on the eastern end of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario today.

Light winds and calm waters are expected Thursday through Saturday as high pressure builds into the lower Great Lakes.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for NYZ001>007.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LEZ040- 041.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for LOZ042.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for LOZ043>045.