Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Niagara Falls, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Smoke is expected through at least Thursday night from active wildfires in south central Canada.

2) Unsettled weather returns this weekend, with chance of showers and thunderstorms increasing Friday night and Saturday.

DISCUSSION
Key Message 1...Smoke is expected through at least Thursday night from active wildfires in south central Canada.

Wildfires continuing across south central Canada into Minnesota sending a considerable amount of smoke over the Great Lakes and Northeast. Flow aloft will remain west-northwest the next couple of days. Vertically integrated smoke from both the HRRR and the RAP show that there will be periods of dense smoke through Thursday night. Most of the smoke will remain aloft, however surface visibility may be reduced at times with the smell of smoke likely.

Temperatures this afternoon and Thursday will run cooler than modeled with smoke spreading overhead, and could be as much as 10 degrees or so cooler under areas of thicker smoke.

Atmospheric flow does not change much Friday, so if the wildfires remain at an elevated intensity, smoke may linger through Friday.

Key Message 2...Unsettled weather returns this weekend, with chance of showers and thunderstorms increasing Friday night and Saturday.

A trough will dig into the Northeast late Friday and into the weekend with a broad surface low moving through. This will bring increasing chances of showers and thunderstorm starting late Friday, peaking with widespread showers/storms Saturday. Most of the activity should be through the region with a cold frontal passage by Sunday.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
At the surface, a high centered near the SK/MB/MN border area will continue to extend a ridge into our region through 00Z/Fri.
However, a weak cold front should begin to sweep S'ward across the Eastern Lake Ontario Region after ~20Z/Thurs and near the southern shore of Lake Ontario and vicinity by 00Z/Fri. Very isolated showers and thunderstorms with brief MVFR to IFR are possible along the front in the Eastern Lake Ontario Region. Any shower or storm should dissipate by 00Z/Fri due to nocturnal boundary layer stabilization.

Our regional surface winds should trend light and variable through ~12Z/Thurs. Thereafter, surface winds should be around 5 to 10 knots and trend W'erly to NW'erly ahead of the cold front before veering toward N'erly behind the front. Winds at the surface and aloft will allow smoke originating from wildfires in northern MN and northern ON to impact Western and North-Central NY through 00Z/Fri. This rather dense smoke, especially aloft, is expected to result in ceilings near 3kft to 6kft AGL. Surface visibility should vary between VFR and IFR in the smoke. The greatest visibility reductions should occur late this evening through Thursday morning, when smoke dispersion at/near the surface should be relatively-limited.

Outlook...

Thursday night and Friday...Mainly VFR, but smoke is possible.

Friday night through Saturday night...Restrictions likely in periodic showers and thunderstorms.

Sunday and Monday...Mainly fair weather and VFR expected.

MARINE
A light west-northwest wind will persist on the lower Great Lakes through tonight. Westerly winds will freshen Thursday and a short period of Small Craft conditions is possible on the eastern end of Lake Ontario Thursday afternoon and evening.

Smoke from Canadian wildfires may result in periods of reduced visibility on the lower Great Lakes through Friday.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Thursday night for NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...None.