Sunday, September19, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ferrysburg, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:28AMSunset 7:49PM Sunday September 19, 2021 10:54 AM EDT (14:54 UTC) Moonrise 6:42PMMoonset 4:42AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ846 Holland To Grand Haven Mi- 805 Am Edt Sun Sep 19 2021
Today..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Monday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Rain showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Monday night..South winds to 30 knots. Rain showers and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 5 to 7 feet building to 6 to 8 feet toward daybreak.
Tuesday..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Rain showers and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 5 to 7 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet late in the day.
Wednesday..North winds 15 to 25 knots. Partly Sunny with a chance of rain showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday..North winds around 15 knots. Partly Sunny with a chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ846 Expires:202109192000;;852387 FZUS53 KGRR 191206 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 805 AM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ846-192000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ferrysburg, MI
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location: 43.09, -86.23     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 191042 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 642 AM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021

LATEST UPDATE . Aviation

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 330 AM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021

- Swaths of heavier rain possible Monday into Tuesday

- Chances for rain continue mid week

- Turning much more fall like mid to late week

DISCUSSION. (Today through next Saturday) Issued at 330 AM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021

- Swaths of heavier rain possible Monday into Tuesday

Moisture associated with the former tropical system Nicholas moves into Southern Lower Michigan late tonight, but especially on Monday. PWAT values will increase to right around 2.00 inches which is rather high for mid to late September, but typical of tropical moisture reaching this far north.

The chances for rain Monday and Monday night will be associated with this tropical moisture and an associated upper shortwave. There is little to focus the rainfall however with deep southerly flow in place and no boundary to interact with. Not expecting widespread heavy rain, but given the PWAT values there will certainly be efficient rainfall processes ongoing.

Better chances for heavier swaths of rain are expected on Tuesday as a cold front pushes into the very moist airmass. WPC QPF progs show widespread 1-2 inch amounts over our entire forecast area through Wednesday morning. Feel these amounts will likely occur in swaths across our area and not be widespread across the entire area. Given heavier rainfall rates some localized ponding of water is certainly possible Monday into Tuesday. Rivers are quite low, so not expecting much issue there. Case in point, the Grand at Grand Rapids is at 1.61 feet at 200am which is very low.

Threat for severe weather looks low as instability never really increases substantially. Most unstable CAPE values via the NAM3km which has a high bias on this variable only generates around 1,000 J/KG on Monday and even less on Tuesday. Some embedded storms for sure, but agree with the general thunder assessment via SPC.

- Chances for rain continue mid week

It appears the GFS is trending towards the ECMWF in that an upper low retrogrades back into the Great Lakes from Ontario mid week. This will bring additional showers to the area and think leaning on the ECMWF is the way to go given it seems to be leading the way. Another stronger shortwave dives into the Great Lakes late in the week which deepens an upper trough overhead. So, showers will likely continue into the Friday and Saturday time frame as well. The bottom line is that we look to be set for a pattern change and to one that is quite a bit more active than we have been seeing of late.

- Turning much more fall like mid to late week

Temperatures will turn more towards sweat shirt weather as we head through the work week. 850mb temps will be in the middle teens C through Monday night as summer tries to hang on. The bottom drops out though behind the Tuesday front with the coldest air settling in from Wednesday and Thursday. The ECMWF actually has a Zero C temperature over Grand Rapids at 850mb Thursday afternoon. Euro MOS guidance has 59 for a high at GRR Thursday. We currently have low 60s in the forecast, but could see needing to nudge this down. Coolish weather continues into Saturday.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) Issued at 641 AM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021

Mostly clear skies and a light southeast wind are expected through the period.

MARINE. Issued at 330 AM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021

A period of active weather with stronger winds and large waves is expected to begin on Monday and potentially last into Thursday. Looks like fall arrives on the big lake both literally and figuratively this week.

Will hold off for now on marine headlines as the concern is out in the later 3rd and 4th forecast periods (Monday afternoon and Monday night). The other question is whether the headline will be Small Craft or Gale. The NAM3km would definitely support gales Monday night as 35-40 knots is showing in the mixed layer at the Muskegon and Southern Lake Michigan buoy (LM2) forecast points. Waves are going to respond accordingly with 4-8 footers likely Monday night. If the gales actually come to fruition, could see some 9-10 foot waves mixed in potentially up towards Ludington.

A fairly rough period out on Lake Michigan will continue from Tuesday into Thursday morning as the flow turns northerly behind the frontal passage that occurs on Tuesday. 20-25 knot northerly flow looks pretty common mid week.

Beach Hazards season will conclude at the end of the month, so we are looking at Beach Hazards headlines as well to go along with whatever marine headlines we decide upon.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . None. LM . None.

SYNOPSIS . Duke DISCUSSION . Duke AVIATION . 04 MARINE . Duke


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45161 9 mi34 min SE 7.8 G 9.7 65°F 70°F1022.1 hPa
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 11 mi34 min ESE 5.1 G 6 65°F 1021.9 hPa54°F
45029 13 mi24 min E 5.8 G 7.8 65°F 71°F1 ft1021.6 hPa55°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 22 mi54 min E 6 G 8 66°F 70°F1021.2 hPa (+0.5)55°F
45168 48 mi24 min E 5.8 G 7.8 69°F 71°F1 ft1021.4 hPa59°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 48 mi44 min 14 G 16 68°F
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 60 mi54 min ESE 5.1 G 8 65°F 51°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Muskegon, Muskegon County Airport, MI7 mi59 minESE 710.00 miFair65°F54°F68%1022.2 hPa
Holland - West Michigan Regional Airport, MI24 mi61 minESE 510.00 miFair67°F55°F66%1022 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMKG

Wind History from MKG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE8NE1054NE6N7NE4NW7NW4N3NE4E7E6E6E7E4E4E7E6E5E5E3E5E7
1 day agoS11
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S11S10S6W3CalmW3N7N11N7N7N7NE9NE9NE8NE8NE8NE9E11
2 days agoSE3SW6S10S10S11SW9SW6SW5CalmCalmSE3SE5SE6SE5SE6SE7SE7SE9S8S5CalmSE4SE3S7

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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