Wednesday, January22, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ferrysburg, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 8:08AMSunset 5:44PM Wednesday January 22, 2020 4:08 AM EST (09:08 UTC) Moonrise 6:29AMMoonset 3:40PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ846 Holland To Grand Haven Mi- 1005 Pm Est Tue Jan 21 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday morning...
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds to 30 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 5 to 7 feet building to 6 to 9 feet toward daybreak.
Wednesday..South winds to 30 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 6 to 9 feet.
Wednesday night..South winds 15 to 25 knots. Cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 20 knots. Rain and snow showers likely. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet late in the day.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Friday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Rain showers likely and a chance of snow showers. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots backing north late in the day. Cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday..Northwest winds around 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
LMZ846 Expires:202001221000;;320054 FZUS53 KGRR 220305 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1005 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ846-221000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ferrysburg, MI
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location: 43.09, -86.23     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 220830 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 330 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2020

LATEST UPDATE . Synopsis/Discussion/Marine

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 330 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2020

- A few rounds of snow or mix Thursday to Saturday

- Benign weather early next week

DISCUSSION. (Today through next Tuesday) Issued at 330 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2020

-- A few rounds of snow or mix Thursday to Saturday --

Whatever filtered sunshine we see today will likely be the last for this week. A pair of troughs/vorticity maxima over the Canadian Rockies will dig into the central US, forming a closed low on Thursday which will lumber toward the eastern US by Sunday.

Snow will develop amid isentropic lift on Thursday. It will start off as virga but will eventually reach the ground as low level dry air moistens and gradually advects away. The areas most favored to see about 1.5 inches during the day would be near/west of US-131 while 0.5 would be possible toward US-127. Impacts to travel will likely be minor due to temperatures near freezing, though initially cold roads may allow snow to stick.

The greatest and most likely time frame for precipitation will be Friday into Friday night as the low hooks northward from the lower Ohio river valley. The NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and ensembles are in general agreement of 0.25 to 0.50 inch precip occurring in central to southern Michigan, though amounts don't look like they will be neatly distributed. To further complicate the forecast for snow amounts, warm air advection around 900 mb Friday morning may cause a changeover to a mix or rain for part of the day, but the degree of which is very much in question as the low level temperatures would be just marginally warm enough to melt falling snow. Areas which change over to snow sooner and receive relatively heavier precipitation could be dealing with 1 to 2 inches of wet snow by Friday night, but this detail is low confidence. Lingering snow showers are expected to last into Saturday.

-- Benign weather early next week --

Even after the departure of the low on Sunday, there may be enough low level moisture and lift to consider drizzle or freezing drizzle. Ridging and high pressure will likely become established by Tuesday. Temperatures will likely be a little warmer than January norms.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1200 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2020

MVFR lake-effect clouds are spread across MKG-FFX-RQB and north, and should persist for much of the morning. Otherwise, prevailing VFR with south-southwest winds are expected over the next 24 hours. Gusts 15 to 20 KT are possible during the afternoon.

MARINE. Issued at 330 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2020

Hazardous winds and waves on Lake Michigan will be maximized this morning before gradually diminishing through Thursday morning. Could be a few gusts near gale force around Big and Little Sable Points, which is where waves and potential shoreline erosion will be greatest.

HYDROLOGY. Issued at 315 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2020

The river flood warning at Robinson Township has been cancelled. This leaves the Grand River basin free of any flood alerts. Further south, an ice jam formed on the Kalamazoo River near Comstock on Monday and this continued into today. Flows were backed up to near flood stage at times but as of this afternoon a substantial drop was noted. However, the river may fluctuate again over the next 24 hours given the erratic nature of ice jams and changing river flows. We are not expecting much, if any, additional ice formation in the river given our mean daily temperatures will not be below 20 degrees this week. Residents and businesses should continue monitoring the river while the jam is present.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for MIZ037-043-050-056.

LM . Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for LMZ846>849.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for LMZ844-845.



SYNOPSIS . CAS DISCUSSION . CAS AVIATION . CAS HYDROLOGY . Hoving MARINE . CAS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 11 mi28 min WSW 25 G 28 32°F 1027 hPa26°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 22 mi92 min 29°F 32°F1025.1 hPa26°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 48 mi38 min S 16 G 19 26°F
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 60 mi62 min 32°F 24°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Muskegon, Muskegon County Airport, MI7 mi13 minSW 19 G 2910.00 miOvercast and Breezy32°F24°F73%1026.1 hPa
Holland - West Michigan Regional Airport, MI24 mi15 minS 1010.00 miA Few Clouds21°F17°F85%1027.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMKG

Wind History from MKG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE4CalmCalmW6W7W9SW10
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1 day agoNE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW5CalmN10N7N6N3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoW14
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G26
N15N13
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N9N9N6N6N3CalmCalmN4NE5E5NE4NE6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.