Saturday, August15, 2020
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L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ferrysburg, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 8:48PM Saturday August 15, 2020 4:32 AM EDT (08:32 UTC) Moonrise 1:48AMMoonset 5:39PM Illumination 13% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ846 Holland To Grand Haven Mi- 406 Am Edt Sat Aug 15 2020
Early this morning..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Today..South winds around 10 knots veering west late in the day. Mostly Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Tonight..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots backing west late in the day. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..Northwest winds around 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots backing northwest. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
LMZ846 Expires:202008152000;;478849 FZUS53 KGRR 150806 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 405 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ846-152000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ferrysburg, MI
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location: 43.09, -86.23     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 150730 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 330 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020

LATEST UPDATE . Synopsis/Discussion/Marine

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 305 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020

- Marginal Risk of Severe storms late this afternoon through the early evening

- Weak front with chance of storms on Monday

- Fair weather overall next week

DISCUSSION. (Today through next Friday) Issued at 305 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020

--Marginal Risk of Severe storms late this afternoon through the early evening--

There continues to be a good consensus in the models on the progression and timing of the incoming system and the corresponding front. As the upper level trough slowly moves through the Great Lakes region it will bring a region of instability. The 500mb pattern continues to be divergent through midday today with no upper level shear support through the first half of the day. This will stifle any growing convection. The combining of diurnal heating and a mid level short wave should couple to allow for the chance for isolated showers/storms out ahead of the stronger front. Some of the CAMS show this occuring after 20Z.

The NAEFS standardized anomalies, along with the GEFS M-Climate anomalies both have the best PWATS and probable QPF through the Northern half of lower Michigan. There is still a chance for precipitation as the trough extends across the lower portion of the state Late Saturday evening, early Sunday. Storms are expected along this front and potentially in area of low level convergence. So by 00Z the front will be moving through Central Michigan, which with the deepening trough should reinvigorate the system, with the best convection forming and then move eastward late Saturday night.

There is still a chances for scattered/isolated severe storms during the late afternoon across the western and central zones and into the evening across the east. Shear profiles are very weak with less than 15 knots of deep layer shear but forecast soundings show CAPE spikes up to about 1500 j/kg across the southern half of Lower Michigan during the afternoon. The storms will weaken with the loss of diurnal heating in the evening but a few storms could persist across the far eastern zones into Sunday morning.

-- Weak front with chance of storms on Monday--

An upper level trough will drop southward across the Great lakes Monday. This will bring a weak could front through the region that should bring enough instability and moisture that could allow for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms with a possibility that some of these could be severe. The lapse rates are fairly weak however there is better mid level winds and shear with this system.

-- Fair weather overall next week --

A building High over the four corners out west will bring a zonal flow to the region with fair weather, temperatures are normal and slight chances for afternoon convection through the work week.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 142 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020

VFR conditons will persist for the next few hours before patchy fog develops roughly between 09z-12z. MVFR visibilities are expected, with some possible LIFR/VLIFR for JXN since the airport had over an inch of rain yesterday afternoon and the boundary layer is likely still moist.

More into the afternoon, isolated to scattered afternoon convection will be possible after 18z. The showers and storms will start near US-131 (impacting GRR and AZO), then progress east towards BTL, LAN, and JXN through about 22z. Locally heavy downpours may result in IFR visibilities, with wind gusts towards 30kts possible.

MARINE. Issued at 305 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020

Winds and waves will be relatively calm but will pick up a bit this evening into Sunday after the cold front comes through. The waves could reach around 3 feet tomorrow but should subside by midday Sunday. Current forecast guidance shows winds at or below 20 knots and waves below 4 feet through Monday.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . None. LM . None.

SYNOPSIS . Ceru DISCUSSION . Ceru AVIATION . Thielke MARINE . Ceru


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45161 9 mi33 min SE 5.8 G 9.7 72°F 74°F1 ft1014.7 hPa (-0.3)
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 11 mi23 min SE 5.1 G 7 71°F 1014.3 hPa65°F
45029 13 mi23 min ESE 5.8 G 7.8 71°F 74°F1 ft1014.2 hPa64°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 22 mi45 min E 8.9 G 11 69°F 72°F1013.9 hPa66°F
45168 48 mi23 min E 7.8 G 7.8 70°F 75°F1 ft1014.3 hPa62°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 48 mi33 min E 9.9 G 11 69°F
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 60 mi51 min E 2.9 G 5.1 71°F 66°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Muskegon, Muskegon County Airport, MI7 mi38 minN 010.00 miFair70°F64°F84%1014.8 hPa
Holland - West Michigan Regional Airport, MI24 mi40 minE 510.00 miFair66°F62°F87%1014.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMKG

Wind History from MKG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNE4NE3NE4E5E7E9E7NE4E53E53NE9E7E4NE3E7SE5E4SE5SE4SE6Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmE3E4SE3SE5SE434SW9W6W9NW6NW6NW8NW4N3CalmCalmCalmE4E4E5
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3SW4SW4W7W8SW8W7W5W10NW7NW4NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.