Monday, August19, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Madison, WI

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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 6:06AMSunset 7:56PM Monday August 19, 2019 11:35 AM CDT (16:35 UTC) Moonrise 10:09PMMoonset 9:54AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ644 Port Washington To North Point Light Wi- 1105 Am Cdt Mon Aug 19 2019
Rest of today..East wind 5 to 15 knots veering southeast 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Tonight..Southeast wind 5 to 15 knots veering south 5 to 10 knots late in the evening, then easing to 5 knots after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves around 1 foot.
Tuesday..South wind 5 to 10 knots rising to 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and early afternoon, then becoming south 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.
Tuesday night..South wind 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots late in the evening, then veering west after midnight rising to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the night. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ644 Expires:201908192200;;472434 FZUS53 KMKX 191605 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1105 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ644-192200-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Madison, WI
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location: 43.09, -89.43     debug

Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 191445
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
945 am cdt Mon aug 19 2019

Update Far southern wisconsin is on the northern periphery of
an elevated instability axis running through northern illinois.

This is creating sct-bkn altocu CU across the far south. This axis
looks to remain just to the south through the day, so expecting
more persistent cloud cover in this area. Weak capping remains in
place most of the day with rap NAM likely overdoing low level
moisture. Hence wl continue dry forecast but high temps in this
area may need to be lowered slightly. Beautiful conditions
elsewhere today.

Marine Westerly winds gusting to 15 kts over the northern part
of the lake should diminish slightly and back to the south to
southwest as high pressure moves slowly across lake michigan.

Meanwhile, more variable winds are expected across the southern
part of the lake. The lighter and variable winds should become
more southerly tonight and begin to increase ahead of an
approaching front on Tuesday.

Prev discussion (issued 644 am cdt Mon aug 19 2019)

no changes to the forecast.

Aviation(12z tafs)...

winds will be light today allowing for a weak lake breeze. Expect
few to scattered clouds around 3-5kft. Patchy fog is possible
tonight. Light southeast winds Tuesday morning will become
southwest Tuesday afternoon. Thunderstorms may impact far southern
wisconsin late Tuesday morning. MVFR ceilings are likely,
especially for far southwest wisconsin.

Prev discussion... (issued 307 am cdt Mon aug 19 2019)
short term...

today and tonight... Forecast confidence medium.

There is some fog in the lower lying areas where skies are clear.

Passing scattered clouds will keep it from getting dense, except in
the wisconsin river valley. High pressure will be overhead today.

Mostly sunny skies are expected. 925mb temps around 18c support a
high around 80. It will be somewhat less humid, especially towards
central wisconsin. Patchy fog is possible overnight.

Tuesday ... Forecast confidence medium.

The high will shift east bringing light south winds. Models
are showing a storm complex developing across northern iowa early
Tuesday and sliding into northern illinois during the day. It could
clip southwest and far southern wisconsin.

A shortwave will be tracking across this region, possible moving
across southern wisconsin while a low level jet will nose into iowa
then pivot into northern illinois. A 925-850mb baroclinic zone will
be southwest of wisconsin so thinking majority of the convection
will track south of us, from iowa into illinois along the
instability gradient. We will be pretty capped but if the line
pushes through there will be 1500-2000 j of instability and 30 knots
of shear. So will have to watch for something strong to severe in
far southwest to south-central wisconsin, in spc's marginal risk

Long term...

Tuesday night through Wednesday... Forecast confidence is medium.

With the trend in guidance to show a morning MCS developing over
ia and diving SE through il could end up setting us up better for
a round of thunderstorms in the evening overnight. This is because
the strength of the WAA previously advertised by the guidance
would end up weaker due to the MCS passing to our south so the cap
won't be nearly as strong. Steepening lapse rates aloft and a
warm and humid airmass in place will allow for CAPE of 2,000 to
3,000 j kg. The issue that we have now is a trigger for
convection. A secondary shortwave dropping S SE out of northern mn
could spark convection along the incoming frontal boundary in the
afternoon to our north. These storms could continue south into our
area during the evening and overnight hours. The strength of the
instability could support stronger wind gusts and hail pending
storms can get going. Ended up bringing pops up a bit for the
overnight period to account for any storms that could roll through
the area.

For Wednesday models have subtle differences as an upper level
wave moves across the great lakes. The ECMWF keeps just enough
moisture over the area to spark some light showers along the wi il
border during the afternoon hours Wednesday. Think that is
overdone based on the amount of dry air streaming in aloft so have
kept the forecast dry for Wednesday. Highs warm into the mid to
upper 70s with breezy conditions expected behind the frontal

Wednesday night through Sunday... Forecast confidence is high.

Cooler and dry weather is forecast for the rest of the week and
into the weekend as high pressure settles in over the great lakes.

A couple of good radiational cooling nights will occur during this
period with guidance likely a on the warmer side. So, have tried
to knock overnight lows down a degree or two to reflect these
cooler temps. Highs each day will stay in the 70s with mostly
sunny skies. As we head into the weekend the high begins to kick
east and moisture starts to return back to the north in western
wi. Some disagreements in just how quickly this moisture shifts
east into southern wi exists in latest guidance but have trended
the forecast towards the ecmwf, which is the drier solution.

Rain storm chances then shift east into the region for Sunday.

Aviation(9z tafs)...

there will be some fog at times early this morning. Passing
clouds will keep it from getting dense. Winds will be light today
allowing for a weak lake breeze. Expect few to scattered clouds
around 3- 5kft. Patchy fog is possible tonight. Light southeast
winds Tuesday morning will become southwest Tuesday afternoon.

Thunderstorms may impact far southern wisconsin late Tuesday
morning. MVFR ceilings are likely, especially for far southwest


high pressure overhead will bring light winds today and tonight.

South winds may reach 15 to 20 knots across the northern third of
the open waters. South to southwest winds on Tuesday will be 10 to
20 knots. Waves will be 3 feet or less across the open waters.

Lighter winds are expected Tuesday night. Gusty north winds are
expected on Wednesday into Wednesday night ahead of high pressure in
the northern plains. They will remain somewhat elevated into

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... None.

Update... mbk
today tonight and aviation marine... 99
Tuesday through Sunday... 99

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 85 mi56 min ENE 4.1 G 6 70°F 1018.3 hPa
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 93 mi36 min NNE 7 G 7 70°F 1016.9 hPa (+0.3)

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Madison, Dane County Regional-Truax Field, WI6 mi43 minVar 410.00 miA Few Clouds74°F55°F52%1016.9 hPa
Middleton Muni - Morey Field, WI6 mi61 minE 410.00 miFair0°F0°F%1017.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMSN

Wind History from MSN (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSW7
1 day agoCalmSE3E7SE4S6SE11S8S5S6S4S5SE5S5S6S8--S9S9S7SW5----W7
2 days agoSW7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.