Tuesday, September29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mattydale, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 6:50PM Tuesday September 29, 2020 9:53 PM EDT (01:53 UTC) Moonrise 5:23PMMoonset 3:29AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:202009300315;;567381 Fzus51 Kbuf 292337 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 737 Pm Edt Tue Sep 29 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-300315- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 737 Pm Edt Tue Sep 29 2020
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of waterspouts. Rain. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 30 knots. Showers likely with a chance of waterspouts. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Wednesday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. Occasional rain with a chance of waterspouts. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Thursday..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of waterspouts. Showers likely in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely with a chance of waterspouts. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. Showers likely with a chance of waterspouts. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers Sunday night. Waves 2 feet or less. The water temperature off rochester is 65 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mattydale, NY
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location: 43.11, -76.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 300008 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 808 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020

SYNOPSIS. A widespread steady rain is expected tonight along a stalled frontal boundary. Cooler, seasonable temperatures will be across the area starting Wednesday, along with drier conditions. The next chance of widespread showers will be on Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. 625 PM Update:

With this update, we have made adjustments to hourly PoPs for the next few hours, as the steady rain has been slower to progress eastward than previously expected. As of this update, most of the steadier rainfall is located west of I-81, with another batch of rain in the Poconos and Southern Catskills. Still expecting a widespread steady rainfall to spread across the entire area later this evening/overnight as a frontal boundary remains nearly stalled.

Also made adjustments to hourly PoPs for the daytime hours on Wednesday, as latest guidance indicates that much of the area will dry out quicker than previously expected. Still expecting the greatest chance for lake effect rain showers to occur along and north of the NY Thruway corridor. The previous discussion continues below.

300 PM Update:

A cold front is across the middle of the CWA now from Utica to Deposit to Prompton. The front has slowed and will make only slow progress east until late tonight. Temperatures on the east side in the low 70s while behind it 50s to low 60s. Heavier rain has moved north behind the front which has pushed totals to half an inch to an inch in the western counties. This area could get another inch but seeing how this area is in a drought flash flooding will be unlikely. The rest of the area could get 1 to 1.5 inches before the rain ends Wednesday morning. This area is also not expected to have any flash flooding. Also been dry there too. Precipitable water values are near 1.5 inches with the deep south winds advecting the moisture from the Gulf.

Weak instability continues across the far southeast. 30 kts of shear and a few hundred CAPE but no trigger with the front not progressing. Cloudy skies will continue keeping the low level stability low. Chances of thunderstorms in the far southeast will be low into the evening.

The upper level trough and short wave rotate through late tonight and Wednesday morning kicking the cold front to the east and ending the rain. Surface winds will pick up quickly to 10 to 20 mph sustained and gusts to 30. Cold air aloft will keep clouds across most of CNY Wednesday and Wednesday night. A low level flow of 250 degrees will keep most of the lake effect showers just to our north. Have low chances of rain showers from Steuben to Oneida county in NY.

For temperatures, cooler than average with highs in the 60s Wednesday then with some clearing low 45 to 50 Wednesday night.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. A cold front will be well to our east by Wednesday evening, but but deep upper trough will be digging into the region. A weak short wave moves NE across western NY through early Thursday morning and enhanced low level moisture/instability from the lakes should be enough to kick off some showers late Wednesday night across our far northwestern forecast area. These should continue through Thursday as well across the Finger lakes and NY Thruway areas. Increased cloud cover and shower chances given the blended model guidance can sometimes have difficulty picking up on Lake Effect.

The upper trough will continue to amplify on Thursday and through Thursday night, with a reinforcing cold front dropping SE out of Ontario, Canada Thursday night. Continued lake effect showers will be possible through the night and into Friday morning. Modeling and various ensembles are showing a stronger signal for a weak wave of low pressure to ride up the Mid- Atlantic coastline as well Thursday night into Friday. So have increased shower chances for these areas as well. Lows are generally expected to be in the 4o's with highs in the 50's and 60's.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Upper trough will be draped over the Eastern U.S. with the aforementioned cold front pushing through the region on Friday. Models are advertising several waves moving through the cyclonic flow with a few mainly diurnal showers expected through the day Saturday. Although surface high pressure builds into the the Northeast U.S. for the weekend, we will remain under the influence of the upper trough. This could produce some isolated diurnal showers with decent instability developing if there is enough sunshine with the already cold temps aloft. However, forecast soundings are indicating very dry air aloft with strong subsidence inversion at around 750 mb, so the shower chances will be very low, and few/far between by Saturday. Temperatures in the 40's and 50's.

Sunday the high pressure remains over the region which should allow for a dry back half of the weekend. With clearer skies and lighter winds Saturday night both fog and frost (where the growing season continues) will be possible. Highs should inch closer to 60 Sunday.

Ensemble signaling is growing more defined for a miller-B typer system early next week with one low pressure system coming from the Great Lakes and another one coming from the southeast. These two low pressure systems would interact with plenty of moisture to produce a round of rain. Lows likely around 40 and highs pushing 60 are currently anticipated.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. 800 PM Update

Conditions vary from VFR to IFR currently (00z) as a band of steady rain wavers across the area this evening. This band will slowly move east tonight and be east of the area around 12z Wednesday. In the steady rain ceilings and visibilities should fall to MVFR and possibly IFR (BGM) prior to 04z this evening.

The trend is for all sites to fall to IFR/LIFR CIGS and IFR vsbys between about 04-11z as a band of moderate to occasionally heavy rain will be in place areawide. Around 12z rain moves out, winds pick up, as cigs and vsbys improve to MVFR and then VFR quickly by 13-15z. VFR conditions persist areawide, with just some sct mid level clouds Wednesday afternoon.

Light and variable winds tonight under 5 kts. Wednesday west-southwest winds increase 8-15 kts gusting to 25 kts after 13-15z, and through the afternoon hours.

Outlook . Wednesday evening and Thursday . mainly dry as an upper level trough approaches. Showers and restrictions possible at SYR/RME.

Thursday night through Saturday . rain showers may bring occasional restrictions; especially the NY terminals.

Saturday night and Sunday . mainly VFR. Possible early morning fog especially ELM.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . BJG/TAC NEAR TERM . BJG/TAC SHORT TERM . MPK/MWG LONG TERM . MPK/MWG AVIATION . MJM/TAC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 31 mi54 min SSE 5.1 G 8 56°F 1009.1 hPa55°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 77 mi54 min S 4.1 G 4.1 60°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 78 mi54 min 58°F 1008.1 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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SE6
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY2 mi60 minN 38.00 miLight Rain57°F55°F93%1009 hPa
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY21 mi60 minN 06.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist56°F54°F93%1009.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSYR

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)
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SE12S9NW13NW10NW10
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NW6W7W5NW6CalmSE4SE6E6E6E3E4CalmN3
1 day agoS8S9S10S6SE5SE5NE4NE3E3E6NE3E6S6S11S8SW11S12S10S11S12
G18
SE11SE7S14SE11
2 days agoSE10S6S7S8S11S8S8S7S7S6S6S3S8S12
G18
S11S14
G20
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G22
S11S13SE13S13SE9S12S11

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.