Thursday, February20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bandon, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 5:55PM Thursday February 20, 2020 9:15 AM PST (17:15 UTC) Moonrise 5:47AMMoonset 3:05PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ310 Coos bay bar- coastal waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca out 10 nm- waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca from 10 to 60 nm- 134 pm pdt Wed may 29 2013 a long-duration moderate to strong north wind event is expected to last from this weekend into early next week. Winds should begin to increase Friday into Saturday...peaking Sunday with storm force wind gusts possible. Very steep and hazardous waves will accompany this wind event and mariners should prepare for dangerous conditions at sea. The strongest winds and highest seas will occur beyond 5 nm from shore.
PZZ300 212 Am Pst Thu Feb 20 2020
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..High pressure will produce relatively calm conditions through Friday. Gusty north winds and steep wind driven seas are then expected late Friday night into Sunday morning as a thermal trough briefly forms along the coast. A weak front will brush to the north of the region Monday, followed by steep northwest swell. Conditions improve Tuesday, but gusty north winds and steep seas are possible through the rest of the week due to the returning thermal trough.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bandon, OR
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location: 43.12, -124.41     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 201656 CCA AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion . CORRECTED National Weather Service Medford OR 856 AM PST Thu Feb 20 2020

DISCUSSION. Adjustments were made to the cloud cover this morning and afternoon. High and mid level clouds are moving from the southwest ahead of an upper low currently off the California coast that is moving south. The cloud cover is scattered to broken up in areas, so the main change was to decrease the cloud cover to better reflect the latest satellite image right now, then adjusted the cloud cover down in the afternoon with the expectation the clouds will remain scattered to broken at times.

The cloud cover has been sufficient enough for temperatures to start out milder morning compared to the last few mornings. For details on the weather for the rest of the forecast period, please refer to the previous discussion below. -Petrucelli

AVIATION. For the 20/12Z TAF Cycle . A very dry air mass will maintain VFR conditions for all areas through the TAF period, with a few exceptions. One exception is the Umpqua basin, where possible freezing fog and low stratus could produce IFR/LIFR conditions around sunrise. Should these conditions develop, improvement to VFR is expected around late morning or early afternoon.

The other exception is along the coast and in the coastal waters, where areas of IFR/LIFR conditions are expected as a southerly surge makes its way up the coast. -BPN/BR-y

MARINE. Updated 800 AM PST Thursday, 20 Feb 2020 . High pressure will produce relatively calm conditions through Friday. Light winds and seas are expected today. Tonight into Friday, west swell will build into the waters but seas will remain below advisory level. Gusty north winds and steep wind driven seas are then expected south of Cape Blanco late Friday night into Sunday morning as a thermal trough develops along the coast.

Models have trended weaker and later regarding a weak front, which is now expected to skirt by just to the north on Monday. Guidance has also significantly decreased the height of the swell train expected to arrive around the same time. We now expect only moderate southwest winds as the front passes, and the arriving swell will just push seas steep enough to possibly warrant a small craft advisory. Swell decreases Tuesday, but the return of a weak thermal trough may keep steep seas in the forecast for the remainder of the week. -BPN/CC

PREV DISCUSSION. /Issued 424 AM PST Thu Feb 20 2020/

DISCUSSION . An east to west pressure gradient continues across the forecast area this morning resulting in light to moderate easterly winds in some areas. These winds, along with broken to overcast high clouds overspreading the area from the southwest, is resulting warmer temperatures at most valley locations as compared to the chilly valley readings we experienced the two previous mornings. Where winds and cloud cover have combined, the air temperature change has been significant. For instance, this morning it's around 50F in Ashland, whereas 24 hours ago it was around 27F.

The broken to overcast high cloud cover is expected to continue through the day today and may be accompanied by some mid-level cloudiness on the west side. These clouds are associated with a trough of low pressure pushing in from the Eastern Pacific. High temperatures for today have been bumped up in most locations as a warmer start and filtered sunshine should yield a mild afternoon for late February- generally 5-10 degrees Fahrenheit above normal.

Friday into Saturday high pressure ridging is expected over the area yielding a continuation of large diurnal temperature ranges including mild afternoons. Friday is likely to be the warmest day across the area per numerical model forecast 850MB temperatures and mostly clear skies in the afternoon.

The much discussed frontal system for Sunday into Monday that looked as if it might be significant as of just a couple of days ago has continued to trend drier and not as cold in the last 24 hours. The 00Z GFS actually indicated no measurable precipitation making it to Medford. The 06Z is back to showing light amounts, whereas the ECMWF has remained more consistent, with light to moderate precipitation expected over the western two thirds of our forecast area's land area. All in all, the official forecast leans mostly on the National Blend of Models and the European Ensemble guidance. However, it should be noted that, if the European model guidance ends up holding as it is now, we'll need to lower snow levels some and increase precipitation amounts a bit. All in all, this frontal system is looking rather disappointing for those hoping for a reasonable round of winter weather in what has turned out to be a much below normal precipitation month.

The forecast for the 26th-29th looks mostly dry, with just some slight shower possibilities as weak low pressure troughs ride into general ridging across the area. These lows are weak, in part, due to a split jet stream. Interestingly, the ECMWF suggests temperatures about 12C/20F colder than does the GFS for next Thursday. Our official forecast is currently going close to consensus, with a bit of lean more toward the GFS (per the NBM). ~BTL

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None.

CA . None.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Saturday to 10 AM PST Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SNTO3 12 mi46 min Calm 37°F 1023 hPa37°F
46128 14 mi76 min 49°F
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 16 mi40 min 49°F1022.5 hPa
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 27 mi46 min N 1 G 2.9 48°F 48°F1023.2 hPa
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 46 mi46 min 50°F4 ft

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Oregon Regional Airport, OR23 mi20 minESE 610.00 miFair44°F37°F79%1022.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOTH

Wind History from OTH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE7E4SE55W13W7W6NW4CalmSW5SE4SE6SE5S6SE7S5SE7SE6SE7SE5SE6SE6SE4SE6
1 day agoCalmCalmNE6NE5NE9N14N16N14
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N6N6S3CalmCalmN3NE5CalmE4E4CalmSE7S6S3S5SE7
2 days agoCalmNE33N5N12N17
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N14N10NE7CalmN5N5NE5E3CalmNE4N4N6Calm--CalmN4N6

Tide / Current Tables for Bandon, Coquille River, Oregon
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Bandon
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:40 AM PST     3.13 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:46 AM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:08 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:27 AM PST     7.14 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:05 PM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:40 PM PST     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:54 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 11:19 PM PST     5.90 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.24.53.83.23.23.64.45.56.57.176.45.23.620.7-0.1-0.20.41.534.35.45.9

Tide / Current Tables for Charleston, Oregon
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Charleston
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:48 AM PST     3.30 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:47 AM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:08 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:42 AM PST     7.66 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:04 PM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:44 PM PST     -0.38 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:54 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 11:23 PM PST     6.45 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.74.94.13.53.33.74.55.76.77.57.67.15.84.12.30.8-0.2-0.40.21.53.14.65.86.4

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.