Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for South Eliot, ME

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Update...Minor changes to reflect latest observational trends.

Previous...

A cold front clears the area by early this morning as high pressure builds in from the west. The building high brings a northwesterly breeze through the day, with gusts of around 25-30 mph much of the day. It also brings drier and relatively cooler air as well, but highs still warm into the 60s downwind of the mountains, with highs nearing 70 degrees across southeast New Hampshire. The northwesterly wind direction also prevents a sea breeze at the coast, allowing temps to be actually be warmer in some spots than yesterday. The downslope mixing helps to bring low dew points to the surface, with RH values dropping below 30 percent south of the mountains in Maine, and below 20 percent south of the mountains in New Hampshire. Mainly sunny skies are expected once clouds clear this morning.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
Winds quickly ease this evening as the ridge axis associated with the high crosses New England overnight. Clear skies, light winds, and a dry airmass allows temps to fall into the 30s across most of the area, with some upper 20s likely across the northern valleys. With temps cooling into the mid 30s, a frost is possible along the Maine coast tonight, coinciding with the median last freeze date of the season.

The high pressure center moves offshore tomorrow as a warm front approaches from the west. This set up brings an increasing onshore flow to the coast during the day tomorrow. After initially reaching the 50s, temps fall back into the 40s by the late afternoon. Temps warm further inland, with highs warming into the mid to upper 60s across the interior. Along with these warmer temps, RH values drop into the 20s again tomorrow away from the coastline. High clouds filter in through the day from the west as more moisture moves in aloft ahead of the approaching warm front. A stray sprinkle can't be ruled out across western locations by the late afternoon hours.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Evening update...Very little change to the extended forecast at this time as periods of wet and dry weather continue to be expected at times.

Key Message: Periods of rain and showers will end the week with unsettled weather possibly continuing into early next week.
Temps will be cooler but still near to above normal for this time of year.

Impacts: Keeping an eye on Fri if we can get enough clearing ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorms are possible and could be on the stronger side.

Forecast Details: Onshore flow north and east of the warm front will leave at least part of the forecast area cooler thanks to the marine influence. To the west however it should be another mild spring day.

Front lifts thru the area overnight and rain showers are likely along with the frontal passage. Chances will be highest in the mtns...so I have likely PoP for those zones. The biggest question really revolves on the amount of clearing if any Fri.
If we can break out into some sunshine...there would be a favorable overlap of CAPE/shear for organized thunderstorms.
Machine learning guidance has some small risk over severe storms over most of the forecast area. It is too early to add any sort of severe risk to the forecast grids...but I did make sure there was some thunder.

A trailing wave will interact with the cold front and now model guidance is indicating a weak low pressure moving thru the region Sat. I trended PoP up for this period. Based on ensemble guidance the best chance for dry periods will be ahead of the cold front Fri...and again Mon/Tue. Otherwise models are all over the place with rainfall. So much of the extended is low confidence based on how and where the upper low forms.

AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Short Term...VFR conditions prevail through tomorrow. Gusty northwest winds of around 25kt develop by mid morning, and then ease this evening.

Long Term... Warm front and precip moving into the area Thu night will see widespread MVFR conditions and eventually IFR CIGs working into the area by Fri morning. There may be some clearing or lifting of the CIGs on Fri before another round of widespread MVFR with areas of IFR on Sat. Some improvement is expected Sun but the weather will remain unsettled.

MARINE
Short Term...SCA conditions gradually lower from west to east across the waters today. A period of fair conditions move through tonight and tomorrow morning as high pressure crosses the waters. Southeasterly flow then freshens tomorrow afternoon ahead of an approaching warm front.

Long Term...Increasing southerly winds behind the warm front will potentially bring marginal SCA conditions outside of the bays Fri afternoon into Sat. There is low confidence in the pattern beyond Sat...so it remains to be seen whether SCA conditions linger thru the weekend if offshore winds become gusty.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ150- 152.
Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ154.