Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for South Eliot, ME

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Mostly clear skies are currently overhead with a tranquil day experienced so far. Clouds are expected to arrive this afternoon, as a weak warm front arrives from the west. For many, this front should be mostly dry, though the Midcoast could see a quick overnight coating to an inch of snow from it. Low temperatures tonight will fall into the teens for most.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
The center of the low pressure system moves in tomorrow. The track of the low looks to take a more interior track, which will advect some warm air along the coast. This warm air advection will be coming from the southwest, which will make it difficult for the warm air to move further inland. This will allow for an interesting precipitation-type paradigm, with mostly snow expected in the foothills and mountains, and rain along the coast.

Hi-res guidance has started to show a thin band of freezing rain could be likely in a swath extending from Auburn/Lewiston to Augusta, and Waterville. BUFKIT soundings confirm that this swath is more likely to be freezing rain than sleet, as a more defined warm layer is present with shallower below freezing air at the surface.
Any icing will be mainly confined to the aforementioned swath in Maine, and no freezing rain is expected across New Hampshire.

Accumulating snow is expected across interior NH and in northwestern Maine. Snow should generally be light to moderate, and will start in the late morning tomorrow. However, some low-level frontogenesis and upslope in the mountains could allow for some periods of heavier snow Wednesday afternoon in and around more prominent mountain ranges. Across the lower elevations in this region, generally 3-6 inches of snow is likely, with perhaps a little less near Littleton, Whitefield.

Precipitation exits the region Wednesday night, with lingering upslope snow showers expected through Thursday morning.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Early on Thursday, a closed upper low is forecast to be centered somewhere along the Ottawa to Montreal corridor. This low will slowly move east northeast through the day, tracking into northern Maine by the evening hours. A cold front will also be moving through the forecast area on Thursday morning. Most frontal precipitation will move out early in the morning as the boundary pushes off to the east, but cyclonic flow aloft will lead to plenty of upslope snow showers over the higher terrain through the day. A few snow showers may linger over portions of the Midcoast and interior.

Thursday will also see some gusty westerly winds behind the front.
While pressure rises don't look overly impressive, we should see steady cold air advection through the day. The latest NAM forecast soundings suggest a brief window for 35 to 45 knots at the top of the mixed layer during the afternoon on Thursday, so some gusts to 40 mph (at least) look possible. It should stay fairly breezy overnight, especially across the higher terrain and near the coast.

Given the gusty winds and steady cold air advection, it will feel blustery on Thursday. High temperatures are forecast to range from the lower 20s north to the lower 30s south, but a few mid to upper 30s are possible along coastal areas. However, when winds are factored in, apparent temperatures will mainly be in the single digits below zero north, to the low to mid teens above south and along the coast.

Friday looks blustery as well with breezy winds lingering and highs forecast to even be a little bit colder. The NBM is currently advertising highs in the low to mid teens north, to the upper 20s and lower 30s south. Once again, the stronger winds will make it feel quite a bit colder than what the thermometer reads. Friday should generally be dry, but a few more upslope snow showers are not out of the question in the mountains.

A progressive upper ridge axis moves across the region Friday night and the next shortwave trough starts to approach on Saturday. This next system will bring widespread low to medium precipitation chances to the forecast area Saturday and Sunday which should mainly come in the form of light snow. That being said, some ensemble guidance suggests the potential for some heavier precipitation on Sunday as the main shortwave pushes through. For now, NBM probabilities for an inch of snow or greater are fairly low (20 to 30 percent), but model/ensemble trends will need to be watched as we get closer.

Highs on Saturday and Sunday will mainly be in the lower 20s to the lower 30s and then models are in fairly good agreement that we will see the next shot of cold on Monday behind a cold front that moves through on Sunday.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Short Term...VFR expected this afternoon. Increasing cloudiness will lower CIGs tonight, with snow lowering restrictions at RKD.
Brief period of low VFR expected early Wednesday morning.
Conditions are expected to deteriorate through the remainder of the morning, as rain and snow move in. Conditions slowly improve outside of the mountains Wednesday night as precipitationexits the region.

Long Term.. MVFR conditions will likely be ongoing in spots Thursday morning with lingering interior and mountain snow (maybe some localized IFR conditions). Conditions improve through the day and into Thursday night, with VFR likely for most by Friday. LEB and HIE stand the best chance to hold onto MVFR ceilings with an increasing upslope flow through the weekend. VFR mostly prevails, but there will be an increasing chance for some snow showers over the weekend.

MARINE
Short Term...Light southwesterly winds are expected this afternoon, with 2-3ft seas. Tonight, seas and winds increase to SCA levels as a low moves in from the west. Seas increase to 4-7ft by Wednesday morning. Southwesterly winds continue to increase through the day, becoming Gale force in the afternoon.
Seas increase to 6-9ft by the end of the day. Marine conditions only start improving by early Thursday morning.

Long Term...SCA conditions may linger through at least Friday night, with westerly gales possible on Friday behind a cold front. High pressure builds across the waters on Saturday and then the next cold front approaches Sunday.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Thursday for MEZ007>009-012-013.
NH...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Thursday for NHZ001>004.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ150-152-154.
Gale Warning from 1 PM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ150-152-154.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ151-153.