Saturday, December7, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
South Eliot, ME

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 4:09PM Saturday December 7, 2019 2:40 PM EST (19:40 UTC) Moonrise 2:57PMMoonset 3:00AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ154 Coastal Waters From Cape Elizabeth, Me To Merrimack River, Ma Out 25 Nm- 1151 Am Est Sat Dec 7 2019
Rest of today..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less, then 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Sun night..SW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming S 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of rain in the morning, then rain in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..SW winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Rain.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers likely with a chance of snow showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of snow showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
ANZ100 1151 Am Est Sat Dec 7 2019
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. High pressure dominates over the weekend with relatively light northwesterly winds. The next system approaches from the southwest by Monday with gusty winds and low visibility in rain and fog possible. &&


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Eliot, ME
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location: 43.12, -70.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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FXUS61 KGYX 071651 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1151 AM EST Sat Dec 7 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure builds east and will crest across the area tonight with light winds, mainly clear skies, and cold temperatures. The high retreats offshore on Sunday allowing a milder return flow to develop. By Monday, temperatures in the 40s will be common. But along with the warm weather will come rain as a low pressure system crosses the region Monday and Tuesday. Much colder air follows this system for the remainder of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON/.

1150 AM . Minor ESTF update to reflect the current mesonet in near term grids.

Prev Disc . 900 AM . at 13z a 1031 millibar high was draped across the eastern Great Lakes. With the exception of some upslope clouds and snow showers across the higher terrain . GOES visible showed clear skies across the remainder of the area. For this ESTF update . I made minor adjustments to near term grids to reflect the current mesonet as well as satellite low cloud trends.

Prev Disc . Update . Have updated the forecast to incorporate latest observations across the region and mesoscale models. Scattered snow showers continue along the upslope regions of the high terrain, with mainly clear conditions over downslope areas. This general trend will continue for much of the day with highs eventually reaching the lower 20s in the north to around 30 in the far south.

Prev Disc . High pressure builds in from the west today. Northwest winds continue to pour in the cold dry air. Expect temperatures only climbing into the 20s today despite almost full sun on the coastal plain. Clouds likely get hung up northwest of the mountains, though, where these winds will maintain an upslope component through the afternoon. Dewpoints will also be falling into the low teens or upper single digits as the center of this Arctic air mass moves in.

SHORT TERM /5 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/. The central axis of high pressure crosses through the area tonight. As a result, expect winds to go calm under a clear sky and set up good radiational cooling conditions. Current forecast for low level dewpoints suggest the floor for temperatures will be the single digits. The coldest northern valleys may fall to around zero degrees while the larger urban areas and hilltops may hold on to double digits. After such a cold start it will take a while to warm up on Sunday. Winds turn southerly on the back side of high pressure so we will get some warm advection to help out a bit. However, clouds will also begin to increase through the day especially in northern areas as mid level moisture begins to spill in ahead of the broader trough and specifically a shortwave trough pushing through Quebec. Most areas should reach the 30s, with southern areas topping out above freezing.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. High pressure continues to shift east, away from the area Sunday night with increasing warm and moist return flow into Monday amid increasing gradient flow. Although mixing won't be very strong in the warm advective regime Sunday night, temperatures will bottom out in the 20s to around 30 area wide, much warmer than the previous morning with increasing cloud cover and humidity. Upstream, a trough digs down from the Canadian Prairies into the central CONUS, strengthening a broad area of low pressure at the surface extending from the Ohio Valley up into the Great Lakes region.

The first PoPs associated with the approaching low creep in from the northwest as humidity increases through the column by dawn Monday. The earliest precipitation up across the mountains would therefor start as snow, with a gradual change over to rain by mid-day across the area as surface and h850 temperatures rise above freezing. There is a narrow window where h850 temperatures may outpace surface warming with increasing low clouds slowing the diurnal trend, so a brief period of sleet or freezing rain is possible, however it's very low probability with minimal mixed precip impacts expected at this point Monday morning. h850 temperatures rise to 4-8C by the end of Monday with afternoon surface temperatures maxing out in the 40s to near 50, limited mainly be increasing cloud cover, rain coverage, and snow on the ground.

During the second half of Monday, the driving trough aloft shifts into the northeast CONUS with a shortwave axis rotating negatively on the downwind (near) side of the feature. This drives a wave of moderate rain over the area Monday evening and overnight amid a moist atmosphere as PWAT exceeds 1" south of the mountains. QPF trends have been relatively consistent, with run- to-run consistency, and bring around 0.5-1" of rain across the area with highest amounts near the coast and across southern NH during that period. There is some question as to where convergence with this wave will maximize - with some operational models suggesting greatest QPF stays off shore, which would be advantageous considering the liquid equivalent on the ground over southern portions of the area presently locked up in snow. A core of strong winds aloft crosses with the wave Monday night, but poor mixing conditions keeps these winds from reaching the surface except for across higher terrain above about 2k ft and over water.

Available moisture cuts back some behind the first wave with drier air coming in aloft, leading to a break in widespread rain during the day Tuesday, however warm advection continues across the low levels and surface with temperatures remaining steady or steadily warming Monday night into Tuesday supported by increasing dew points. By mid-Tuesday, temperatures reach well into the 40s and even the mid-50s along the NH Seacoast and extreme southern ME, but then a sharp cold front crosses by the evening with temperatures plummeting overnight. Rain along and behind the cold front switches to snow area-wide through Tuesday evening with light accumulations expected as moisture wanes. Occasionally gusty winds with snow showers are expected Wednesday with markedly cooler temperatures struggling into the 20s and 30s.

For the remainder of the next work week, stuck close to a model consensus with mean troughing keeping temperatures below normal. Another quick clipper is possible by the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Short Term . Some MVFR ceilings may linger in the mountains through this afternoon, but otherwise expect VFR conditions through Sunday with light winds as high pressure moves by.

Long Term . Southwest flow increases into Monday with lowering ceilings and widespread precipitation likely to lead to widespread MVFR restrictions, IFR by Monday evening as rain coverage increases. A break is likely Tuesday, but another wave of rain with a crossing cold front and associated restrictions is expected during the second half of Tuesday with a westerly wind shift Wednesday. A period of LLWS is possible Monday night as the strongest portion of the LLJ moves overhead.

MARINE. Short Term . Winds will be on the decrease today as high pressure moves in and crests over the Gulf of Maine tonight. On Sunday expect a southwest flow developing and strengthening possibly warranting a Small Craft Advisory.

Long Term . SCA conditions continue into Monday. A brief period of Gales is possible Sunday night, but greater confidence exists in a period of gales Monday night with strongest winds crossing overhead. Winds and seas gradually diminish Tuesday.

HYDROLOGY. Warm temperatures, high dew points, and periods of rain will impact the area Monday and Tuesday and erode snow cover across the region, particularly southern New Hampshire and coastal Maine. While the blanket of snow will initially absorb rainfall, the snow may reach capacity and melt, leading to strong influx of water into local waterways. At this time, southern New Hampshire has over a foot of snow in some places with liquid equivalent likely exceeding 1", in some areas possibly closer to 2". Should moderate rainfall fall on areas with high snow water equivalent, instances of flooding will be possible.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ME . None. NH . None. MARINE . None.



ES


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 4 mi116 min W 6 30°F 1026 hPa16°F
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 15 mi41 min WNW 15 G 18 30°F 1024.9 hPa (+0.0)16°F
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 20 mi59 min NW 8 G 12 31°F 41°F1025.2 hPa
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 21 mi101 min WNW 4.1 31°F 14°F
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 22 mi97 min WNW 9.7 G 14 31°F 1 ft1025.2 hPa
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 42 mi33 min 48°F2 ft
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 44 mi97 min NNW 12 G 16 31°F 46°F2 ft1023.9 hPa
44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME 46 mi51 min WNW 5.8 G 7.8 30°F 43°F1 ft1025 hPa (+0.0)14°F
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME 48 mi59 min 31°F 41°F

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pease Air Force Base / Portsmouth, NH2 mi45 minWNW 810.00 miA Few Clouds30°F11°F46%1025.4 hPa
Rochester - Skyhaven Airport, NH12 mi50 minWNW 9 G 1610.00 miFair28°F10°F49%1024.7 hPa
Sanford, Sanford Regional Airport, ME21 mi45 minW 1110.00 miUnknown Precip31°F15°F52%1025.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPSM

Wind History from PSM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4CalmCalmN3N3N6N8NW8W5W6W8W6W8W8W5W6W6W7W7W8NW8NW10W10NW8
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2 days agoSW4S4SW3S4CalmSW3W4W3SW5W5W3W4W5W5W3CalmSW5W4W4CalmW10W10W9
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Tide / Current Tables for Dover Point, Piscataqua River, New Hampshire
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Dover Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:00 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 02:31 AM EST     0.88 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:56 AM EST     6.09 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:56 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:04 PM EST     0.87 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:08 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:18 PM EST     5.82 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.61.510.91.52.63.95.15.86.15.74.73.42.11.20.91.123.24.45.45.85.74.9

Tide / Current Tables for Portsmouth Harbor Entrance, New Hampshire Current
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Portsmouth Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:59 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:08 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:58 AM EST     0.93 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 07:00 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:05 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:43 AM EST     -1.49 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 01:56 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:46 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:07 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:21 PM EST     0.71 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 09:14 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:56 PM EST     -1.55 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.4-1.2-0.9-0.10.70.90.80.70.60.1-0.8-1.4-1.5-1.4-1.2-0.60.20.70.60.50.40.1-0.6-1.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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