Friday, July19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Liverpool, NY

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:40AMSunset 8:40PM Friday July 19, 2019 7:05 PM EDT (23:05 UTC) Moonrise 9:33PMMoonset 7:09AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:201907192115;;303777 Fzus51 Kbuf 191427 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 1027 Am Edt Fri Jul 19 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-192115- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1027 Am Edt Fri Jul 19 2019
Rest of today..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms late. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. Mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 51 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Liverpool, NY
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location: 43.12, -76.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 192044
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
444 pm edt Fri jul 19 2019

Synopsis
A hot and humid airmass continues today and Saturday across the
region with dangerous heat index values. Most of the area will
see a chance of thunderstorms through the weekend as several
disturbances pass through. Conditions will remain quite warm
and humid Sunday although not as hot, with cooler air expected
Monday onward.

Near term through Saturday night
445 pm update... Updated pop based on latest radar and mesomodels
trends. Thunderstorms will be pushing across central ny and the
twin tiers region this evening... With strong gusty winds and
torrential rainfall. Flash flooding remains a concern due to the
intense rainfall rates and slow moving training storms.

Damaging winds also remains the main threat, especially across
the twin tiers as we head into the evening hours.

330 pm update...

a severe thunderstorms watch is in effect for all of central ny
and portions of NE pa until 10 pm this evening.

Main concerns in the near term remain focused on the scattered
thunderstorms... Some possibly severe... Expected to develop and
move in from the west this afternoon and evening along and ahead
of an advancing mesoscale convective system... And also the
continued threat of very hot and humid conditions today and
Saturday. There is also the potential for some afternoon evening
convection Saturday, but the threat for severe weather appears
limited.

A broad, large dome of high pressure continues to build newd
into the ERN great lakes and northeast today with temperatures
climbing into the upper 80s and lower 90s, with dew points in
the mid to upper 70s making it feel like upper 90s to around 110
deg. An excessive heat warning remains in effect through
tomorrow with the very warm and humid air mass remaining in
place into the weekend. Conditions tomorrow will be slightly
warmer with heat index values above 105 deg for a number of
locations... Especially the populated valley locations and across
the lake plain south of lake ontario.

The amount of heat and humidity this afternoon has allowed the
atmosphere to become very unstable with ml CAPE values above
3000 j kg. A very persistent MCV that rolled across SRN ontario
earlier today has maintained strength moving east along a fairly
strong stability gradient... And is now starting to tap directly
into the unstable boundary layer into far WRN ny as a strong
line of convection. However, out ahead of the convective system
a broad area of scattered convection has formed with not very
much organization to the individual cells. A lack of shear and
steering flow should allow the lead convection to persist, but
have a hard time becoming severe. The arrival of the mcv, or
what's left of it, later this evening may have enough storm
induced shear to ramp the convective intensity back up again.

The main threat will likely be damaging winds, but some large
hail cannot completely be ruled out.

The threat for heavy rain may tick up again this evening as
soundings become favorable for heavy downpours. Slow-moving
storm cells and plenty of moisture... Pwats 2-2.5 inches... With
tall skinny CAPE profiles could lead to a threat of localized
flash flooding. Some areas may see rainfall rates 1-2 inches per
hour. Wpc has upgraded portions of the finger lakes and the
central SRN tier to a slight risk for excessive rainfall.

The MCV should dissipate close to or just after midnight as it
tracks to the south and SE into NE pa. Weather conditions should
become relatively quiet late tonight and into Saturday morning,
but with another round of showers and storms filling back in by
the late morning, and even more so by the afternoon as the
boundary layer destabilizes. Shear remains weak, but with an
abundance of deep moisture and a strong amt of sfc based cape,
the possibility of scattered thunderstorms returns. The fact
that there is no MCV or primary forcing mechanism should limit
the threat for severe weather.

Short term Sunday through Sunday night
230 pm update...

a cold front pushes through the region from NW to SE on Sunday.

However, heat index values will still come close to excessive
heat criteria across at least the southern half of the forecast
area depending on the timing of the front. Slightly cooler air
works its way into the region behind the front Sunday night,
with overnight lows dipping into the low to mid 60s with the
only exception being NE pa, where lows may still be in the upper
60s to low 70s.

Long term Monday through Friday
230 pm update... The biggest change to the forecast will be due
to model guidance now in good agreement of another front upper
trough pushing through the region Monday into Tuesday, so have
increased pop this period. High pressure will then push in
behind this next system and a cool dry airmass should persist
through the remainder of the period.

Aviation 21z Friday through Wednesday
A very unstable air mass is developing this afternoon which when
combined with an incoming convective complex over SRN ontario, will
eventually lead to scattered thunderstorms... Generally between
22-04z across the ny terminals. Confidence is still not high
enough to include TS in the kavp forecast at this time. Later
tonight after the thunderstorms, may see a brief period of MVFR
cigs and or vsbys due to low clouds and fog where rain develops
today... But with conditions returning toVFR after 14z sat
morning.

Will likely be updating tafs for timing as the TS approach the
area later today. Expect SW winds 5-10 knots during the day with
erratic gusts near any storm cells.

Outlook...

Saturday through Saturday night... Weak passing disturbances
will chances for showers and storms yet it will beVFR most of
the time.

Sunday through midday Monday... Better chances for scattered
showers and thunderstorms and associated restrictions as a
frontal boundary slowly moves through the region.

Late Monday through Wednesday... MainlyVFR other than potential
valley fog pre-dawn Tuesday especially kelm.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... Excessive heat warning until 8 pm edt Saturday for paz038>040-
043-044-047-048-072.

Ny... Excessive heat warning until 8 pm edt Saturday for nyz015>018-
022>025-036-037-044-045-055-056-062.

Heat advisory until 8 pm edt Saturday for nyz009-046-057.

Synopsis... Bjt
near term... Bjt mpk
short term... Mpk mwg
long term... Mpk mwg
aviation... Bjt mdp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 28 mi54 min W 7 G 8 82°F 1009.1 hPa74°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 74 mi66 min WSW 13 G 17 80°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 75 mi54 min 79°F 1008.4 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY5 mi72 minW 710.00 miOvercast86°F77°F75%1008.6 hPa
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY19 mi72 minN 010.00 miFair84°F75°F77%1009 hPa

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3E3E3Calm3SE3E3E3E3E3S6SW6SW8SW9W12W8SW8SW7W8SW9SW11W3W7W6
1 day agoNE3NE4CalmNE5CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmE3E5CalmE6E5N6E7E6NE4N5NE5E3N3NE4
2 days agoS5S7S7S9SW6S4CalmE6N3SE3SE3CalmS3S5SW4W7NW5NW5SE6S4CalmN4E6E4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.