Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Liverpool, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
315 AM Update...

Relatively mild period through Tuesday morning. A stationary front parked west to east into the Mid-Atlantic with a weak surface high to the north will attempt to keep conditions mostly dry, but with mostly cloudy conditions. Smaller chances for rain showers will likely be limited to NE PA, but there may be a few stray showers that float north into the Southern Tier. Mild temperatures of low to mid 70s expected for both Monday and Tuesday.

The zonal pattern breaks down a bit as an upper level trough deepens over the Great Lakes region, and proceeds to send a shortwave up into the area from the southwest during the day Saturday, with mainly rain showers expected, but could be a few scattered storms in the afternoon.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
340 AM Update...

Passing waves along a lifting warm front will support showers Tuesday night. Coverage will be greatest from Northeastern PA, over the Catskills, and up into the eastern portions of the NY's Southern Tier. Further north and west, coverage will be more isolated to scattered. Instability is lacking, so thunderstorms are not expected. Temperatures overnight will be fairly mild as lows will be in the low to mid 60s.

The early portions of Wednesday morning will likely start out dry.
However, additional weak waves will move through and support rain showers. Some models are showing some drier air, especially in the mid-levels which then could delay the development of showers. In addition, this drier air will also keep showers fairly light though with thunderstorms being possible, localized heavier showers would be possible. Being in the warm sector and skies scattering out, instability will increase. MLCAPE is being modeled with values around 1000 J/kg and 0-6km bulk shear of 20 to 30 kts. This will be enough to support isolated afternoon thunderstorms, but with shear being on the weaker end, chances for strong thunderstorms is quite low. With the warm front through the region, temperatures will climb into the 80s. With dewpoints expected to be in the mid to upper 60s, the daytime hours will be humid. Showers will linger through the overnight hours. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible, especially during the evening hours. The nightly lows will range from the mid 60s to low 70s with valley locations more likely to stay in the 70s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
340 AM Update...

A cold front will move through the region on Thursday. The latest guidance continue with the timing of the front to be during the afternoon and evening hours. Based on this, this would allow for instability to increase to around 1500 J/kg. This accompanied with bulk shear of 30 to 40 kts would be enough for stronger thunderstorms. This also matches SPC's thinking as part of the region is in the extend outlook for Thursday. However, this all depends on the timing of the front as an earlier arrival would likely limit the severe potential.

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible from Friday through the weekend as multiple waves ride along a broad upper level trough slowly moves through. There is uncertainty on potential for strong storms late in the week, especially Sunday. The latest GFS is showing high CAPE for the second half of the weekend while other deterministic guidance are much lower values. Of course, there are many other factors to consider, such as the shear, which is not too high then. A ridge of high pressure will build over the eastern half of CONUS Sunday which will bring drier conditions by Sunday night and lead to a significant warm up at the end of the weekend.

The cold front on Thursday will bring a brief cool down to end the work week. Conditions then trend warmer and more humid through the weekend with temps pushing 90 in the valleys on Sunday.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Overall dry conditions are expected through the TAF period with high pressure located north/east of our region. A frontal boundary over the Mid-Atlantic will keep a blanket of Fuel Alt to IFR stratus clouds over the region. RME and SYR are further from the boundary's influence and are expected to remain VFR.

BGM and ELM are the most likely to bounce between Fuel Alt and IFR until later this evening, where both terminals should fully worsen to IFR. ITH will also fall strictly into IFR going into tonight, and AVP this evening.

Outlook...

Monday through Tuesday...Occasional restrictions possible in isolated to scattered showers.

Wednesday through Thursday...Coverage of showers and thunderstorms increase, especially each afternoon. Occasional restrictions likely.

Friday...Possible VFR conditions as high pressure attempts to build into the region.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.