Saturday, December14, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Liverpool, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:26AMSunset 4:31PM Saturday December 14, 2019 12:53 PM EST (17:53 UTC) Moonrise 7:03PMMoonset 9:43AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:201912141015;;754143 Fzus51 Kbuf 140541 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 1241 Am Est Sat Dec 14 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-141015- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1241 Am Est Sat Dec 14 2019
.gale watch in effect from this evening through Sunday evening...
Overnight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. Rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots. Rain. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday night..Northwest winds to 30 knots becoming west and increasing to 35 knot gales overnight. Rain in the evening, then rain showers likely overnight. Waves 5 to 8 feet building to 12 to 16 feet. Waves occasionally around 20 feet.
Sunday..West gales to 35 knots diminishing to 30 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers in the morning, then a chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 11 to 16 feet. Waves occasionally around 20 feet.
Sunday night..West winds to 30 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots overnight. A chance of snow showers in the evening. Waves 10 to 13 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 16 feet.
Monday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day, then snow showers likely Monday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet, then subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west and increasing to 15 to 25 knots. Snow showers likely with a chance of rain showers during the day, then snow showers likely Tuesday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Wednesday..West winds to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 20 knots. Snow showers likely. Waves 6 to 10 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 41 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Liverpool, NY
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location: 43.12, -76.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 141425 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 925 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

SYNOPSIS. A strong cyclone passing over NY and PA will keep rain over our area today, then usher in sharply colder temperatures and snow tonight. Another storm will bring a wintry mix to the area Monday afternoon into Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/. 915 am update . Forecast in great shape. Very little to change. The timing of the steady rain onset this afternoon from west to east looks good.

430 AM update . A winter weather advisory is now in effect over Northern Oneida County Saturday night into Sunday for 3 to 7 inches of snow.

220 AM update . A strengthening storm spinning from the Mid-Atlantic into NY/PA will bring rain, patchy fog, and mild temperatures to our forecast area through this afternoon. Temperatures will peak in the middle to upper 40s. As the storm slides east late Saturday, a cold front will move into the region and cause gusty winds and a quick burst of snow.

Snow will accumulate between 2 and 4 inches across much of the northern and western forecast area, with higher amounts possible over the high terrain of the Susquehanna region. Temperatures will bottom out in the lower 30s across the Twin Tiers. Wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph are expected.

Lake effect snow showers will continue to skirt the northeastern forecast area with light accumulations on Sunday. Temperatures will rise very little during the afternoon, peaking in the lower and middle 30s over most of the forecast area.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Breezy west-northwest winds (10-20 mph) and bands of lake effect snow continue on a 280-300 flow Sunday evening up across the Syracuse metro area, and along the NY thruway. Around 1 inch of snow could fall in the evening, with locally higher amounts.

Winds then will decrease Sunday night as high pressure builds in, shutting off the lake effect after midnight. Low temperatures should fall into the mid-teens to lower 20s but the winds look high enough still to prevent tanking temperatures as a result of snow cover.

Our next low pressure system moves into the Ohio Valley Monday before tracking over, or just south of the region on Tuesday.

Latest modeling trends have now shifted back further south/east with the track of this system. As a result, things are trending colder, both at the surface and aloft through the event now. This colder, further south scenario makes more sense this time around. A cold, dry, Canadian high pressure center will be in an ideal spot to supply cold air into our region during this timeframe. Therefore, readjusted the forecast colder and snowier with this update. A nose of above freezing temperatures in the mid levels still makes a run into the Twin Tiers and NE PA Monday night and early Tuesday . so still have a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain in the forecast. The wintry mix likely changes to all rain across the deeper valleys of NE PA, Monday night into Tuesday morning. Have all snow through the event (but lower QPF amounts) along and north of the NY Thruway through the event . but as previous forecasts have mentioned, usually the mixed precip and sleet will make it a bit further north than model guidance indicates.

Timing and More Details: A band of light snow looks to develop across NE PA, by late Monday morning or midday. The main forcing will be warm air advection during this timeframe. As mentioned above, cold dry air from the high pressure system to the north, should make for a rather slow northward progression of the snow; reaching the NY southern tier during the mid to late afternoon hours Monday. The snow could be moderate at times by afternoon or early evening; from the Twin Tiers south into NE PA. Depending on the exact track and depth of the cold air, sleet could begin to mix in across NE PA prior to sunset. The low pressure center tracks close to the Mason-Dixon line Monday night, but a wedge of warmer, above freezing air aloft marches north, reaching into the NY southern tier (based on latest guidance). Therefore, heading into the late evening and overnight, the snow is forecast to transition to a wintry mix of sleet, freezing rain, rain and some snow flakes south of about Penn Yan--Cortland--Norwich and Oneonta. The mix could change to plain rain in the Wyoming Valley region as surface temperatures rise into the mid-30s. Of course, these specifics will depend on the exact track of the low, if it trends further south (possible) the forecast could trend even colder and more toward snow . or it could track further north than currently forecast (unlikely, but not impossible) bringing a mix further north and more rain overnight. The low then passes off the Long Island/ NJ coast Tuesday morning, with wrap around precip transitioning from a wintry mix, back to snow, from NW to SE across the region. Current, most likely forecasts are for a longer duration winter weather event, bringing several inches of snow and some ice areawide during this Monday-Tuesday timeframe. We will be closely monitoring the latest model trends and adjusting our snow/ice forecasts accordingly. Please check back for updates, especially if you are planning to travel.

Strong cold air advection moves in behind the departing system Tuesday afternoon and night with lingering snow showers, transitioning to lake effect.

Non-diurnal temperatures, with readings rising into the upper 20s to mid-30s late Monday and holding steady Monday night into Tuesday morning. Then temperatures fall back into the 20s from NW to SE Tuesday afternoon and evening. Overnight lows dip into the upper teens to mid-20s Tuesday night.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. No major changes to the extended; still looking cold with snow showers mid to late week . then drying out and moderating some by next Saturday.

Wednesday and Thursday: A piece of arctic air moves into the region as an upper level low swings across the region. Very cold air mass and unsettled conditions are expected with numerous snow showers for our lake snow effect areas and flurries or scattered snow showers further south. Highs will struggle to get into the 20's with overnight lows in the single digits north and teens for NE PA. If the operational GFS and ECMWF are to be believed temperatures will have to be adjusted even further downward given the modeled boundary layer temperatures.

Friday and Saturday: The cold upper level low moves east, with ridging, both aloft and at the surface moving in from the west. This should bring the lake effect snow showers to a gradual end and we should see a gradual moderating trend. Friday will likely still be below average, with highs in the mid-20s to lower 30s, and overnight lows Friday night still cold, in the teens to low 20s. By Saturday, early indications are for dry weather and near to slightly above average temperatures. Highs look to reach the mid to upper 30s for most areas.

AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. 9 am update . Persistence is winning for now as most sites remain IFR due to cigs and vsbys. Extended the low conditions a few more hours. Some sites like BGM below field minimums. There will be some improvement as steady rain moves in this afternoon.

Previous discussion . A strong storm system moving north from the Carolinas will keep low clouds, light fog, and rain over our terminals through Saturday afternoon. Mainly IFR ceilings are forecast across the region with visibilities between 1SM and 4SM.

Light winds will shift to the west and strengthen after 00z Sunday when a cold front pushes through the region. Winds will gust at 25 to 35 knots along and behind the front, while rain showers will change to snow showers.

Outlook . Sunday . Light snow with MVFR/IFR restrictions. NW wind at 10 to 20 kts with gusts 20 to 30.

Sunday night and Monday . VFR with winds decreasing.

Monday night and Tuesday . MVFR/IFR restrictions with a wintry mix.

Wednesday . MVFR/IFR restrictions in CNY maybe reaching AVP.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NY . Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Sunday for NYZ009.

SYNOPSIS . DJP/TAC NEAR TERM . DJP/TAC SHORT TERM . MJM LONG TERM . MJM AVIATION . DJP/TAC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 28 mi53 min NE 6 G 8 992.5 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 74 mi53 min N 11 G 12 40°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 75 mi53 min 39°F 993.2 hPa (-5.1)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY5 mi59 minN 03.00 miOvercast44°F41°F89%992.5 hPa
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY19 mi59 minE 32.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist44°F41°F89%992.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSYR

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS13SE9E6E8E7NE4NE4E7NE4E6NE3E5E6E4NE5E6E4E6E3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmS5S5SE6SE7E7E7E6SE7SE9S8
G22
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S9CalmS13S12S11
2 days agoSW13SW18
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.