Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Liverpool, NY

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Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 152339 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 739 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure over the area this afternoon will lose its hold on our region through Thursday as an area of low pressure approaches from the Midwest. Showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon and night ahead of a cold front. Drier conditions return later Friday after the front passes through. The heat and humidity will build this weekend with high pressure overhead. The next chance for showers and storms will be ahead of another cold front late Sunday or Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/.

Only minor changes to the forecast with the early evening update. Discussion below.

High pressure along the eastern seaboard will start to move offshore and loosen its influence on our region through Thursday as an area of low pressure approaches from the Midwest. The low is expected to lift northeastward across the eastern Great Lakes Thursday night while the attendant cold front approaches from the west.

Southeasterly return flow will strengthen across the region tonight as the ridge axis shifts toward the coast. This will allow for the marine layer to advect inland, resulting in the development of stratus across some parts of the area overnight into early Thursday morning. The southeasterly breeze and cloud cover will lead to a seasonably mild night with lows in the 60s. The setup should also prevent extensive river valley fog from developing and

A leading shortwave trough will approach from the Midwest/Great Lakes region Thursday. The extent (coverage and magnitude) of convection for Thursday afternoon is in question as model soundings continue to show a prominent capping inversion present just above the boundary layer. This feature should delay convective initiation until mid or late afternoon and generally limit updraft strength. The bulk of the shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to remain to our west (where synoptic forcing along the front/surface low resides) for most of the afternoon. Based on the latest CAMs, this activity will eventually progress downstream into the central Southern Tier, Finger Lakes, and Southern Tug Hill late in the day (possibly as late as sunset). The low-level jet ahead of the approaching system looks fairly robust, especially for this time of year, as S-SW winds at 850 mb increase to near 50 kt. However, without surface-based instability, the threat of damaging winds appears to be low and mainly west of the CWA.

These showers and storms will progress eastward across the area Thursday night but with meager instability (that is further waning with the loss of daytime heating), coverage and intensity should gradually lessen through the night. Heavy downpours are possible with PWAT increasing to 1.5-2", but the setup does not appear favorable for training storms or flash flooding.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. 215 PM UPDATE .

Surface trough lingers over the area Friday keeping scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast, along with plenty of clouds. Shortwave comes out of the Great Lakes later in the day and finally kicks the trough east Friday night and allowing for drier weather late in the day and into the weekend.

There is little or no threat for severe on friday with the drier air moving in and the limited instability.

Saturday looks dry and warm with light winds under a strong inversion as ridging builds in at the surface and aloft.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. 215 PM UPDATE .

Little to change in the extended at this time and the models remain consistent on the daily features. Ridge holds off any showers Sunday until late in the day. Poorly organized surface front and upper wave for Monday will likely trigger showers . followed by ridging for the middle of the week.

400 am update . A relatively flat but building ridge of high pressure will begin to develop across the northeastern sections of the CONUS this weekend. Rising heights aloft and weak high pressure at the surface on Saturday will keep weather conditions dry at least through Sunday morning.

By Sunday afternoon the next short wave will begin to move across the Great Lakes into the Northeast along with another rich supply of deep moisture. Strong warm air advection ahead of the system will cause rapidly warming temperatures. Highs on Sunday will rocket into the lower 90s, and dew points in the 70s will make it feel close to 100 in some locations. The timing of the passage of a short wave could prove important for the development of strong to possibly severe thunderstorms. Will see higher chances for severe wx if the front moves through in the late afternoon. The front is expected to sag south on Monday . which will allow the hot and humid air to drop south of the forecast area. So at this time, it appears that Sunday will be the hottest day instead of Monday. Temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will top out in the upper 80s in central NY and lower 90s in ne PA. Will likely see scattered thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday during the afternoon and early evening.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/.

VFR through most of the night. However, data shows a MVFR cloud deck forming around KBGM, KELM and KRME for a time around sunrise. A light southeast wind is likely to keep any MVFR deck out of KAVP with KITH and KSYR not getting into the cloud deck.

On Thursday, the ceiling looks slow to lift to VFR in the morning, around 15Z. Concern then turns to south and southeast wind gusts around 20 knots in the afternoon. Potential for showers increases after 21Z with the highest chances at KRME and KSYR with showers expected to hold off till after the TAF period for KAVP.

Outlook .

Thursday night . Generally VFR, apart from restrictions in showers and storms. The best chance for precipitation will be across our northern and western terminals (RME-SYR-ELM) during the evening hours. Forecast soundings marginally support LLWS conditions during the evening when a SW low-level jet increases to around 50 kt at only 2 kft above the surface.

Friday through Monday . VFR except brief/localized restrictions possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . JRK NEAR TERM . JRK/MWG SHORT TERM . DGM LONG TERM . BJT/DGM AVIATION . MWG

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY	74 mi	36 min	ESE 8.9 G 11	76°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY	5 mi	42 min	ENE 4	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	77°F	59°F	54%	1019.2 hPa
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY	19 mi	42 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Fair	75°F	64°F	69%	1019.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSYR

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (21,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY

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