Saturday, March28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Liverpool, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 7:28PM Saturday March 28, 2020 6:54 PM EDT (22:54 UTC) Moonrise 8:08AMMoonset 10:44PM Illumination 23% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Sodus Bay To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario- 509 Pm Edt Sat Mar 28 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from Sunday morning through Sunday evening...
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers this evening, then showers likely after midnight. Rain late. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south. Rain with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet, then subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. Showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. Rain showers likely in the evening, then a chance of rain showers overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. A chance of rain showers during the day. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..Northwest winds 10 knots or less. A chance of rain showers. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ044 Expires:202003290315;;216774 FZUS51 KBUF 282109 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 509 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ044-290315-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Liverpool, NY
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location: 43.12, -76.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 281838 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 238 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

SYNOPSIS. A Great Lakes storm will spread rain, with a chance for thunderstorms into NY and PA through tonight. Warmer temperatures will arrive on Sunday with additional shower activity, and perhaps a rumble of thunder. Cooler and showery weather continues right into early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY Night/. 200 PM Update .

Steady, moderate rain has overspread the entire forecast area this afternoon as expected. Rainfall amounts thus far, through 2PM are ranging from 0.10 to 0.50" along and west of I-81, with less than a tenth of an inch further east. Temperatures have wet bulbed back down into the upper 30s to mid-40s areawide and will remain steady into the early evening hours.

Periods of rain and showers continue overnight as the warm front progresses north and east. Elevated instability increased across the southern tier and into NE PA where thunderstorms will be possible; mainly after 10 PM. Temperatures slowly rise through the 40s overnight, and into the lower 50s by daybreak across the Finger Lakes. Could see some patchy fog as well, mainly across the Poconos and Western Catskills.

The axis of heavier rainfall continues to shift, being more focused on the Twin Tiers, with lower amounts around 1" total through Sunday both north and south of this axis. For the Twin Tiers multiple rounds of rain and some thunderstorms tonight and Sunday should bring totals of 1.00 to 1.50", with locally higher amounts possible. Agree with WPC's slight risk for excessive rainfall in this area . which could cause minor hydrologic issues such as excessive runoff and quick rises on smaller streams. Will monitor this potential closely. Favorable parameters for the heavy rain this evening through Sunday morning include PWATs surging up to 1.4 inches, warm cloud layer depth up to 12k ft and a strong, well established southerly low level jet (around 40 kts at 900mb).

At this time believe the convection should remain generally elevated for our area . so am not seeing anything pointing to strong or severe thunderstorms with damaging winds or hail. Again, the main thing to watch will be the potential for locally heavy rainfall.

A round of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms moves SW to NE across the area Sunday morning. Then, drier air in the mid levels begins to work into the region for the afternoon hours. Under the upper level trough surface and elevated instability begins to increase. However, forecast soundings from the NAM are showing a strong inversion/cap. The question remains whether this cap will be broken. The GFS breaks our area (at least along and west of I-81) into the surface warm sector. This allows us to reach the convective temperature (around 68-70F). Therefore, the GFS is indicating 300-500 J/Kg of sfc based CAPE Sunday afternoon. Right now am leaning more toward the GFS solution and therefore do have warmer surface temperatures in the forecast along with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon along with scattered showers. There will certainly be breaks in the rain shower activity Sunday afternoon, so it won't be a washout. Current forecast highs range from 60-70 along and west of I-81 . with 50s east. Breezy south winds 10-20 mph with gusts to around 30 mph possible.

Sunday Night: Vertically stacked low moves across Lake Superior and Georgian Bay through the night. Lingering scattered showers in the early evening, but then another more pronounced dry slot should move overhead late evening and into the overnight period. This should end much of the shower activity, with only isolated activity around. Another spoke of deeper moisture moves in from the northwest just before daybreak, with shower chances ramping back up from Auburn to Cortland, Syracuse and Rome. Staying mild with overnight lows in the 40s. South-southwest winds 7-15 mph much of the time.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/.

A broad mid-level trough and upper level low will be in place across the region. This trough coupled with west and northwest winds will likely lead to some scattered rain showers throughout this period. Some of these will likely be centered in the afternoon hours when lapse rates will be the steepest. A few snow flakes may mix in as well each night lows diving into the mid and upper 30's. Daytime highs should get well into the 40's and possibly around 50 Monday. QPF looks rather light with rainfall under a quarter of an inch with the influx of deeper moisture well to out east.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/.

An inverted trough looks to extend northward from a low pressure system moving across the Carolinas Wednesday. This trough may have just enough lift for a few rain showers possibly mixed with snow flakes. This trough looks to move out to sea on Thursday taking any shower chances with it. Another cold frontal boundary than looks to follow in the steps of the previous system around Friday. You guessed it, enough lift and moisture with this front for yet another shower chance which could last into next Saturday depending on the timing. Highs look to get to around 50 with nighttime lows in the 30's.

While the forecast will indicate a lot of low shower chances, we should see some dry windows as well. At this point, given timing uncertainty it is difficult to pin out rain free periods.

AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Rain spreading into the region will cause widespread restrictions in rain and light fog the rest of today, tonight and right into Sunday morning.

Widespread MVFR or Fuel Alternate conditions continue late this afternoon and evening. IFR ceilings and visibilities are likely at times this evening at all TAF sites, except KSYR and KRME.

Additional periods of rain and showers overnight along with patchy fog will keep IFR and fuel alternate restrictions over the terminals through at least 15z Sunday. Cannot rule out a stray thunderstorm overnight or Sunday morning, especially INVOF KELM, KBGM and KAVP. Expect some slow, minor improvement with CIGs coming back up to MVFR or fuel alternate by 16-18z Sunday afternoon.

Southeast winds 8-15 kts overnight, increasing up to 20 kts Sunday morning and early afternoon.

Outlook .

Sunday afternoon . Intermittent restrictions in rain showers. Trending toward borderline MVFR/VFR later in the day. Moderate confidence.

Monday . Restrictions possible in showers, especially NY terminals. Moderate confidence

Tuesday . Becoming VFR late. Low to moderate confidence.

Wednesday . Possible restrictions with rain showers around. Low to confidence.

Thursday . Mainly VFR expected. Moderate confidence.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . MJM NEAR TERM . MJM SHORT TERM . MWG LONG TERM . MWG AVIATION . MJM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 28 mi55 min SSE 11 G 16 46°F 1014.4 hPa (+0.0)41°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 74 mi55 min SE 16 G 20 47°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 75 mi55 min 47°F 1013.1 hPa (+1.4)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY5 mi61 minE 114.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist46°F42°F86%1014.5 hPa
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY19 mi61 minESE 710.00 miOvercast46°F41°F83%1014.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSYR

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN9N3CalmCalmE3E5CalmE4E5E4CalmE5E7E8E6NE5NE6E6E9SE8E8E9E10E11
1 day agoW5W6NW11NW6W9W8W9NW9NW10NW7NW8N6NW7NW5NW7W8NW6NW7NW8NW7W6W8W7NW8
2 days agoSE8SE7E6E4E5E7E4E6E5E4E5E6NE4E5E3E5E5E4S6S9S8S11S7W7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.