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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Liverpool, NY

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Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 281838 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 238 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

SYNOPSIS. A Great Lakes storm will spread rain, with a chance for thunderstorms into NY and PA through tonight. Warmer temperatures will arrive on Sunday with additional shower activity, and perhaps a rumble of thunder. Cooler and showery weather continues right into early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY Night/. 200 PM Update .

Steady, moderate rain has overspread the entire forecast area this afternoon as expected. Rainfall amounts thus far, through 2PM are ranging from 0.10 to 0.50" along and west of I-81, with less than a tenth of an inch further east. Temperatures have wet bulbed back down into the upper 30s to mid-40s areawide and will remain steady into the early evening hours.

Periods of rain and showers continue overnight as the warm front progresses north and east. Elevated instability increased across the southern tier and into NE PA where thunderstorms will be possible; mainly after 10 PM. Temperatures slowly rise through the 40s overnight, and into the lower 50s by daybreak across the Finger Lakes. Could see some patchy fog as well, mainly across the Poconos and Western Catskills.

The axis of heavier rainfall continues to shift, being more focused on the Twin Tiers, with lower amounts around 1" total through Sunday both north and south of this axis. For the Twin Tiers multiple rounds of rain and some thunderstorms tonight and Sunday should bring totals of 1.00 to 1.50", with locally higher amounts possible. Agree with WPC's slight risk for excessive rainfall in this area . which could cause minor hydrologic issues such as excessive runoff and quick rises on smaller streams. Will monitor this potential closely. Favorable parameters for the heavy rain this evening through Sunday morning include PWATs surging up to 1.4 inches, warm cloud layer depth up to 12k ft and a strong, well established southerly low level jet (around 40 kts at 900mb).

At this time believe the convection should remain generally elevated for our area . so am not seeing anything pointing to strong or severe thunderstorms with damaging winds or hail. Again, the main thing to watch will be the potential for locally heavy rainfall.

A round of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms moves SW to NE across the area Sunday morning. Then, drier air in the mid levels begins to work into the region for the afternoon hours. Under the upper level trough surface and elevated instability begins to increase. However, forecast soundings from the NAM are showing a strong inversion/cap. The question remains whether this cap will be broken. The GFS breaks our area (at least along and west of I-81) into the surface warm sector. This allows us to reach the convective temperature (around 68-70F). Therefore, the GFS is indicating 300-500 J/Kg of sfc based CAPE Sunday afternoon. Right now am leaning more toward the GFS solution and therefore do have warmer surface temperatures in the forecast along with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon along with scattered showers. There will certainly be breaks in the rain shower activity Sunday afternoon, so it won't be a washout. Current forecast highs range from 60-70 along and west of I-81 . with 50s east. Breezy south winds 10-20 mph with gusts to around 30 mph possible.

Sunday Night: Vertically stacked low moves across Lake Superior and Georgian Bay through the night. Lingering scattered showers in the early evening, but then another more pronounced dry slot should move overhead late evening and into the overnight period. This should end much of the shower activity, with only isolated activity around. Another spoke of deeper moisture moves in from the northwest just before daybreak, with shower chances ramping back up from Auburn to Cortland, Syracuse and Rome. Staying mild with overnight lows in the 40s. South-southwest winds 7-15 mph much of the time.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/.

A broad mid-level trough and upper level low will be in place across the region. This trough coupled with west and northwest winds will likely lead to some scattered rain showers throughout this period. Some of these will likely be centered in the afternoon hours when lapse rates will be the steepest. A few snow flakes may mix in as well each night lows diving into the mid and upper 30's. Daytime highs should get well into the 40's and possibly around 50 Monday. QPF looks rather light with rainfall under a quarter of an inch with the influx of deeper moisture well to out east.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/.

An inverted trough looks to extend northward from a low pressure system moving across the Carolinas Wednesday. This trough may have just enough lift for a few rain showers possibly mixed with snow flakes. This trough looks to move out to sea on Thursday taking any shower chances with it. Another cold frontal boundary than looks to follow in the steps of the previous system around Friday. You guessed it, enough lift and moisture with this front for yet another shower chance which could last into next Saturday depending on the timing. Highs look to get to around 50 with nighttime lows in the 30's.

While the forecast will indicate a lot of low shower chances, we should see some dry windows as well. At this point, given timing uncertainty it is difficult to pin out rain free periods.

AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Rain spreading into the region will cause widespread restrictions in rain and light fog the rest of today, tonight and right into Sunday morning.

Widespread MVFR or Fuel Alternate conditions continue late this afternoon and evening. IFR ceilings and visibilities are likely at times this evening at all TAF sites, except KSYR and KRME.

Additional periods of rain and showers overnight along with patchy fog will keep IFR and fuel alternate restrictions over the terminals through at least 15z Sunday. Cannot rule out a stray thunderstorm overnight or Sunday morning, especially INVOF KELM, KBGM and KAVP. Expect some slow, minor improvement with CIGs coming back up to MVFR or fuel alternate by 16-18z Sunday afternoon.

Southeast winds 8-15 kts overnight, increasing up to 20 kts Sunday morning and early afternoon.

Outlook .

Sunday afternoon . Intermittent restrictions in rain showers. Trending toward borderline MVFR/VFR later in the day. Moderate confidence.

Monday . Restrictions possible in showers, especially NY terminals. Moderate confidence

Tuesday . Becoming VFR late. Low to moderate confidence.

Wednesday . Possible restrictions with rain showers around. Low to confidence.

Thursday . Mainly VFR expected. Moderate confidence.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . MJM NEAR TERM . MJM SHORT TERM . MWG LONG TERM . MWG AVIATION . MJM

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY	28 mi	55 min	SSE 11 G 16	46°F			1014.4 hPa (+0.0)	41°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY	74 mi	55 min	SE 16 G 20	47°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY	75 mi	55 min		47°F			1013.1 hPa (+1.4)

Wind History for Oswego, NY

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W11 G18

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY	5 mi	61 min	E 11	4.00 mi	Light Rain Fog/Mist	46°F	42°F	86%	1014.5 hPa
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY	19 mi	61 min	ESE 7	10.00 mi	Overcast	46°F	41°F	83%	1014.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSYR

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (18,4,5,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY

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