Tuesday, October15, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Liverpool, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 6:24PM Tuesday October 15, 2019 6:51 AM EDT (10:51 UTC) Moonrise 6:39PMMoonset 7:48AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Sodus Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 1053 Pm Edt Mon Oct 14 2019
Overnight..West winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest. Rain with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Showers likely in the evening, then lake effect rain with some rumbles of Thunder possible overnight. Waves building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Occasional lake effect showers. Waves 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Friday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ044 Expires:201910150915;;724525 FZUS51 KBUF 150253 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1053 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ044-045-150915-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Liverpool, NY
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location: 43.12, -76.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 150844
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
444 am edt Tue oct 15 2019

Synopsis
High pressure moves overhead this morning with mostly sunny
skies expected today. However, the high slides east of the area
this evening. A strong cold front brings showers back into the
area on Wednesday and interacts with a rapidly developing
coastal low Wednesday night, with heavy rain possible east of
interstate 81.

Near term through tonight
355 am update...

today will be the best weather day until the end of the week,
with high pressure overhead and mostly sunny skies. The high
will actually slide east through the day with southerly flow on
the backside helping to increase our temperatures this afternoon
into the upper 50s to low 60s.

Cold front approaches from the west late tonight with low level
southerly flow increasing out ahead of the front. Tricky low
temperature forecast overnight, as temperatures initially
radiate quickly after sunset with valleys decoupling under clear
skies. However, as low level southerly flow increases and hill
tops will see temperatures start rising by midnight, but
valleys may be able to remain decoupled for several more hours
thereafter. Still think that with clouds and low level winds
continuing to increase through 12z that a nondiurnal trend will
occur and temperatures rise even in the valleys before sunrise
Wednesday morning.

The arrival of the cold front continues to trend later, so the
area should remain dry through the near term forecast. Maybe
only a slight chance for some showers to sneak into far western
zones by 12z wed.

Short term Wednesday through Thursday night
415 am update...

main concern in the short term period, will be locally heavy
rainfall Wednesday afternoon-evening mainly east of i-81, as a
strong front pivots through the area followed by surface lows
merging to our northeast.

Double-barreled low pressure will impact the region, with
initial northern low moving into eastern ontario Wednesday and a
secondary developing just off the midatlantic coast. The
trough cold front connecting these two will take on a negative
tilt, in strong southwest flow underneath a strong cutoff upper
low. The two surface lows will then fuse while rapidly deepening
into a nor'easter over new england Wednesday night through
Thursday. Given the very amplified pattern, it is not too
surprising that the pace of the front continues to slow down, to
the point that Wednesday morning appears mainly dry. The front
will then pivot southwest to northeast through the area
Wednesday midday through evening, slowing down as it does so and
as cyclogenesis occurs to our northeast. A small amount of
instability aloft will also mean a slight chance for thunder in
the heavier frontal showers. Everyone will see rain, but for areas
east of i-81 it will persist longer in the frontal zone with
surging moisture, especially poconos-catskills. Upper low
itself will translate across our northern to eastern zones late
Wednesday night. All told we are figuring on about a half inch
to inch of rain west of i-81, and 1 to 2 inches to the east.

While flash flooding and river flooding is not anticipated, this
could cause minor issues in poor drainage areas and also
perhaps some street flooding where leaves are clogging drains.

Blustery and much cooler unsettled conditions are expected
Thursday. Wrap around moisture on the back side of the stacking
deep low will cause widespread clouds and continued showers,
especially in central new york. Thursday will be a raw day with
highs of upper 40s to mid 50s, and northwest winds of 10-20 mph
frequently gusting 25-35 mph. Highest elevations could possibly
get a few gusts to 40 mph. Additional rain amounts Thursday
daytime through evening should only be about a tenth of an inch
or less in the twin tiers and very little if any further south.

However, more like 2 to 4 tenths of an inch may occur north of
the twin tiers including the syracuse-cortland-norwich-utica-
cooperstown areas. With all of the clouds hanging around,
temperatures will only fall back into the upper 30s-lower 40s
Thursday night for most locations.

Long term Friday through Monday
430 am update...

cyclonic chilly northwest flow Friday, will give way to dry
ridging over the weekend with temperatures trending warmer.

Deep low will slog its way from northern new england into the
canadian maritime provinces. The broad cyclonic flow around it
will continue feeding winds and cool air out of the northwest.

While deeper moisture will shunt to our northeast, we will
likely have a layer of shallow moisture trapped in the form of
stubborn stratocumulus clouds. It will not be quite as blustery
as Thursday, yet there will still be a decent amount of wind and
temperatures again only upper 40s to mid 50s for highs. Isolated
to scattered lake-enhanced showers will also occur at times in
central new york, especially in the first half of the day before
the moisture layer gets too shallow.

A high pressure ridge will spread over the region Friday night,
allowing clouds to break up and thus radiational cooling of an
already chilly air mass. This will send temperatures down into
the 30s areawide; a few spots such as northern oneida county
could even get into the upper 20s. However, full sunshine
Saturday along with ridging aloft will yield highs of mid 50s to
lower 60s.

We get into a warm air advection regime via return flow at the
surface and strengthening southwest flow aloft Sunday through
Monday. This will allow temperatures to trend a bit above
climatological averages. The southwest flow will be dry at
first, so our next chances for showers are likely to wait until
at least Monday. Operational 00z runs of the gfs-ecmwf-canadian
models point to Tuesday-Wednesday of next week as a higher
likelihood of rain from the another frontal system.

Aviation 09z Tuesday through Saturday
Models had clouds dissipating a few hours early with satellite
imagery at 0530z just now finally showing some breaks in the
clouds. As soon as the clouds dissipate, expect valley fog to
develop rather quickly early this morning. Vlifr conditions will
be possible at kelm, but no restrictions are expected at any
other site. There remains some uncertainty on timing due to the
clouds, and if they clear out earlier then restrictions will
start at elm earlier than forecast and vice versa.

After the fog dissipates mid-morning Tuesday, expect fair,VFR
conditions through the afternoon hours with mostly sunny skies.

Outlook...

Tuesday night and Wednesday... MainlyVFR. Increasing southerly
winds at the surface. Possibly some valley fog develops early
Wednesday morning. Low level wind shear likely developing as
well on Wednesday.

Wednesday night into Thursday night... Restrictions expected as
low pressure system moves through the region with rain showers.

Friday and Saturday... MainlyVFR.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Mpk
near term... Mpk
short term... Mdp
long term... Mdp
aviation... Mpk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 28 mi52 min S 1 G 2.9 46°F 1020 hPa (+0.8)38°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 74 mi52 min SW 8 G 8.9 46°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 75 mi52 min 44°F 1019.7 hPa (+0.6)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY5 mi58 minSE 310.00 miPartly Cloudy37°F35°F93%1020.5 hPa
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY19 mi58 minWSW 310.00 miOvercast43°F37°F80%1020.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSYR

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS10S6SW5SW12W12W9W11NW10W12W11W8W8SW5W7SW5SW5SW4SW7W4W4W4CalmSE3SE3
1 day agoSE3SE4SE3SE5E7SE8E11E9S6S10S9SE8SE5S9S8S14
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2 days agoE5E6E6E6E3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW7NW10W5NW3SW3W3CalmSW4W3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.