East Rochester, NY Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for East Rochester, NY

June 13, 2024 6:51 AM EDT (10:51 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:28 AM   Sunset 8:52 PM
Moonrise 11:31 AM   Moonset 12:14 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 741 Pm Edt Wed Jun 12 2024

Tonight - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.

Thursday - South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Partly to mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.

Thursday night - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.

Friday - West winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less.

Friday night - Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

Saturday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast less than 10 knots. Mainly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.

Sunday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.

Monday - South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 63 degrees.

LOZ005
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near East Rochester, NY
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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 130810 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 410 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

SYNOPSIS
Temperatures will trend warmer today with highs in the 80s. A passage of a cold front tonight will support some showers and possible thunderstorms into Friday along with cooler conditions.
Mid summer heat and humidity will take hold for early next week when apparent temperatures will soar into the 90s.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Weak mid level ridging will be over the region today as surface high pressure remains along the East Coast. This will result in a southerly low-level flow advecting in a warmer air mass with 850 mb temperatures rising to around +15C. This along with sunshine through high clouds will support afternoon temperatures in the lower to mid 80s.

An upper-level trough and slow moving cold front will work into the region tonight. This will bring some showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts should average from a quarter to a third of an inch along and north of the Thruway, tapering to less than a tenth of an inch along the western Southern Tier.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Surface low pressure initially across eastern Quebec will shift northeast into Labrador through the course of the day Friday. The system's elongated cold front will gradually sag southward through the eastern Great Lakes as it does so, with the greatest threat for showers and a few storms moving in tandem just out ahead of the boundary. A lingering convective wave moving out of the Ohio Valley will likely move into the region and ripple along the front Friday morning, slowing its progress while causing a few moderate to locally heavy showers and/or thunderstorms to blossom across portions of the Southern Tier and western Finger Lakes region. While the steadier shower activity should be mainly southeast of the forecast area by the afternoon, diurnal heating and residual moisture ahead of the system's parent upper level trough axis could cause a few additional lighter showers or an isolated thunderstorm to redevelop across western NY. Chances for this look to be slightly better up in the North Country where a weak secondary shortwave will move through, though subtle differences in the timing of the upper trough axis are noted among the latest 00z suite of guidance so will shy away from higher PoPs at this juncture. Otherwise, the cold front will knock daytime temperatures back to near normal values Friday with highs in the low to mid 70s, a few readings in the 60s across the hilltops.

A strong ridge of high pressure at all levels will build back across the Great Lakes in the wake of the trough Friday night. The center of the surface high should move directly overhead by Saturday night, then shift east and migrate off the East Coast by the end of the day Sunday. This will result in dry, tranquil weather across the forecast area through the weekend with pleasant temperatures. Highs Saturday will be on the cooler side mainly in the upper 60s to low 70s as the region remains within the post-frontal airmass. With the onset of warm air advection on the backside of the high Sunday, temps should top out in the upper 70s to low 80s with low humidity.
Nighttime lows Friday and Saturday night will be cool, dipping into the 50s across the lower terrain and mid/upper 40s across the interior of the Southern Tier and North Country.

While the weekend will feature superb weather for outdoor activities...It will also present the perfect opportunity for anyone who has yet to put in their AC units to finally do so BEFORE the heat and humidity surges next week. More on that in the long term section below.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Summer Heat To Impact The Region Next Week

The longwave pattern across the CONUS next week will be dominated by broad troughing west of the Rockies and an expansive ridge across the east. This ridge is expected to become abnormally strong, with overhead 500mb heights potentially climbing to near 600dm (2-3SD above normal compared to climatology) by the middle of the week. The resultant Bermuda High will anchor itself over the western Atlantic, with deep anticyclonic flow around the high causing a warmer airmass to surge across the eastern CONUS. 850H temps over the forecast area within this airmass are expected to quickly reach or exceed +20C by Monday and stay within this range through the remainder of the 7 day forecast, and potentially beyond.

In terms of sensible weather, what this will translate to at the surface will be a prolonged stretch of sultry summer heat and humidity. Daytime temperatures Monday will feature widespread upper 80s and lower 90s, though remaining a bit cooler across the North Country with low/mid 80s where a slightly cooler airmass will linger. By Tuesday and Wednesday, widespread high temperatures in the low to mid 90s are expected, hottest in the interior valleys and coolest just northeast of both lakes (including the Buffalo area) as a persistent southwest flow advects cooler marine air off the lakes.
This heat comes as dewpoints climb into the upper 60s and low 70s, which will cause overall heat indicies in the afternoon to climb into the mid and even upper 90s.

Muggy nights will offer little relief as sleeping temperatures will quickly become very uncomfortable next week. While lows Sunday night will range from the upper 50s to mid 60s, by Monday night and beyond lows are not expected to dip below the 70s outside of the interior hilltops of the Southern Tier and North Country.

While the added heat and humidity will also force a degree of daytime instability next week and lead to some extent of diurnal shower and storm development outside of the stable lake shadows...There remains uncertainty in the position and orientation of the upper ridge, as well as shortwave ripples expected to crest over it, and the degree of the subsidence capping likely to be in place on any given day. Thus PoP values remain low (15-20%) as confidence is low in coverage and intensity of any potential convection that develops or moves into the region next week.

AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Fine flying weather will remain across area TAF sites with VFR weather today. Sfc winds today will increase to 15 to 25 knots in most areas with gusts over 30 knots possible at both KBUF and KIAG.

Outlook...

Tonight and Friday...VFR/MVFR. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Friday night through Monday...VFR.

MARINE
A cold front will move across the lower Great Lakes late tonight and early Friday. Southwest winds will increase ahead of the front today, with winds remaining elevated through Friday. This will bring choppy conditions to both lakes. High pressure will then build back across the waters with light winds and generally favorable boating conditions during the weekend.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 11 mi51 minSSW 9.9G12 65°F 29.93
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 12 mi51 min 65°F
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 35 mi41 minSSE 5.8G7.8 60°F 57°F29.9155°F


Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KROC GREATER ROCHESTER INTL,NY 9 sm57 minSW 0810 smMostly Cloudy59°F52°F77%29.93
KIUA CANANDAIGUA,NY 17 sm16 minWSW 0410 smMostly Cloudy68°F54°F60%29.95
KSDC WILLIAMSONSODUS,NY 22 sm16 minS 0310 smOvercast61°F52°F72%29.94


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Buffalo, NY,




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